Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Alfred]

Canoerebel,
 
You are probably aware of this, but once the enemy arrives at Sydney and Melbourne, the resource centres located in those cities will cease to produce supplies.
 
Alfred

[Canoerebel]

12/22/42 to 12/24/42

The Allies are sitting around hoping something good will happen, because these sure are dark and gloomy days.  I unintentially gave this AAR an accurate title.  Forlorn Hopes indeed. 

Australia:  Canberra fell on Christmas Eve, it's tiny garrison overrun by 2nd Division and two Jap tank regiments.  Newcastle, however, continues to hold.  The garrison held against a 0:1 shock attack on the 23rd, the Japs losing 920/14/3 to 851/17/5.  The Japs have a vastly larger army here, and this may be some indication that the Japs will have trouble with Sydney.  I can hope, right?  Allied bombers continue to work unmolested, with the Japs doing fairly little bombing on their end (I assume this lack of activity over such an extended period is a sign of a shortage of supplies).  All the transports sent from NZ to Sydney made it despite the three Mini-KBs patrolling the waters and sending various damaged refugees from Australia to the bottom.  So supplies and troops at Sydney were bolstered a bit.  Melbourne now has an AV of 2200.  Sydney will have even more than that.  (Alfred, yes, I'm aware of that supply production shuts down when the enemy is in the hex - QBall informed me last week; so I figure the seiges of Melbourne and Sydney will be like Manila, only my garrisons here in Australia are much stronger than was Manila, so maybe there's hope).   I hope folks in John's AAR haven't established an Over-Under wager for the fall of Australia....

Burma:  Drat it, I'm not making much progress here and Jap reinforcements will have time to arrive in meaningful numbers if something doesn't happen soon.  The two Jap divisions (5th and 55th) which advanced NW from Tyung Gai toward Lashio tried a deliberate attack at 0:1 on the 22nd and lost 1367/36/3 to 42/0/0.  My guys counterattacked the next day, got 1:1 odds, but didn't accomplish anything.  I had a big unit arrive that day, so tried another deliberate on the 24th and it failed too, with losses about equal.  John isn't going to accomplish anything here, unless his troops are able to block this road for awhile.  At Meiktila, the Allies stood down until bombarding on the 24th, inflicting well over 300 casualties.  I've ordered a bombing campaign and deliberate attack for Christmas Day.

Cenpac:  A Jap invasion force arrives at Wotje on the 24th, absorbing at least four hits from mines, and pretty severe damage from shore guns - I think 15-20 ships were set afire and infantry casualties exceeded 6,000.  John has a division (22nd, on of the Chinese or Kwangtun units), 23rd Mixed Brigade, 13th Independent Brigade, 2nd Mixed Regiment, and 35th Brigade.  They are facing parts of 1st and 2nd Marines and some miscellaneous units, all of which had an AV of about 530.  The Jap 0:1 shock attack came off at 0:1 and cost them 2253/64 to 964/22/1, with forts remaining 4.  I don't think the Jap invasion is off to a good start, but it won't be hard for John to feed in reinforcements - assuming he has the units available.  Isn't the rest of his army in Australia?

China:  Quiet.

Prince of Wales:  Oh, and PoW was doing well and set to go into dry-dock at Diamond Harbor when I-22 found her and applied the coup-de-grace.  This torpedo finished her off.  Merry Christmas.

Summary:  Still no Jap units at Sydney and Melbourne, so I don't have enough information yet to know whether there's a chance for the Allies to hold either or both of these cities.  Man, I'm hurting!

[Canoerebel]

12/25/42 to 12/27/42
 
Australia:  Jap troops took Port Kembla, a hex south of Sydney, on the 25th.  At this point, with troops there and an overwhelming force at Newcastle (3 divisions plus other units against a single Aussie division and two brigades), I ordered the Aussies to evacuate Newcastle and pull back into Sydney.  The withdrawal occurred without attack, so the garrison escpaped without disruption.  So the Allies hold just the two cities in Australia, Melbourne (AV 2200) and Sydney (AV will be about 2300).  Both cities have over 50k supplies.  Now we'll find out if the Japs have enough to take the city by brute strength in the short run, and if not whether they can take it over the long run by bombing Allied supplies.  The situation is dire, but the one good thing that happened was that the retreats were organized and each pull out occurred before the "final battles," so my troops have high experience, high morale, and low disruption.
 
Burma:  Jap reinforcements are steaming for Rangoon, and it doesn't look like I'll be able to take Meiktila before they arrive.  This has surprrised me - I arrived with overwhelming numbers, but my troops just haven't been able to make headway since the initial attack.  I'm not giving up, because Chinese reinforcements continue to arrive at Lashio, but I had hoped for (and really expected) a breakthrough here that might be problem enough for John to allow for some relief in the Pacific.
 
China:  Things are beginning to settle down.  I don't see any vectors that hold possibilities for a big victory, and I don't think John has enough to create problems for the Chinese.  So I'll continue transferring units to Lashio by air, perhaps committing two or three more.
 
Wotje:  The Japs have finally landed, but all they brought are infantry units.  No engineers, no artillery, no tanks.  The Japs haven't been able to touch teh forts yet, but they can bring in reinforcements at will if they have them to commit.  The Allied AV has dropped from about 550 to about 430, so the attack has exacted a toll on both sides.  Jap ships hit ALOT of mines, and the island still has more than 1,000 mines in place.

[ny59giants]

In Australia, the question will be if he can bring in enough BBs and CAs to bombard either base to help bring down the supplies quickly or does he have to rely on LBA to do it??  I would turn off replacements for all your units and may turn on those artillery units that may be needed if he sends BB TFs. Keep your statis BFs turned off as a CD gun could be replaced if turned on and those take a major amount of supply when that happens. [:-]
 
Could you post which ones and when you get CVs in '43??  I know you have a long road back, but I wonder how long it is before you have a sizable force of them.

[Mistmatz]

Grats on the orderly retreat of your troops into the last two cities. I think this was a crucial thing to achive in order to having a chance defending the footholds.

How is your supply situation in NZ? Doy you have a MLE around so you could start sub mining the harbours to protect them against enemy bombardment runs? Argonaut comes to mind as well.

Pressing the japanese now elsewhere is now very important to eventually relieve some of the pressure. As you're short on naval assets Burma and China are probably the ways to go. Even more so Burma as I think japanese players like more to receive troops from china rather than sending them there. Nevertheless you don't have to achieve much you just have to make him nervous, very nervous. Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

12/28/42
 
John and I missed a few days of gaming due to mutual colds and work schedules.  I think both of us have staggered to our respective homes from our jobs, crawled under the covers, and slept long hours.  I'm still under the weather and quite woozy...maybe that'll improve my play.

Allied CVs:  NYGiants, to answer your question, here's the Allied CV situation.  Saratoga, Yorktown, Long Island, and Nasau are currently at Pearl.  Sngamon, Chenango, and Suwanee are at Panama City and will be joined tomorrow by Essex.  The next arrivals:  CVEs Altamaha and Copahee (15 days), CVLs Independence (46), Princeton (76), Belleau Wood (107), Cowpens (137), and Monterey (168).  CV Enterprise arrives in 157 days.  If the Allies can stave off a Jap auto-victory, and if the Allies resist the temptation to feed carriers into the meat grinder piecemeal, the Allies will have a stout force in five months.  Those carriers loaded with Hellcats would be quite powerful.  No Brit CVs have been damaged or sunk.

Australia:  John's troops haven't moved into the Melbourne and Sydney hexes yet.  The final Allied AVs at these two cities is 2200 and 2400 respectively.  Mel has 59k supplies and Sydney 51k.  All troops at Melbourne are fully prepped and about half of those at Sydney are (the rest were the Brisbane defenders that are now prepping for Sydney).  I am still puzzled at the lack of Jap bombing.  Perhaps John is awaiting more supply convoys?  Neither is he bombarding by sea - I think the bulk of his fleet is up around Wotje. 

The sitauation in Australia is pretty intriguing.  I think it will take a full commitment of men, aircraft and ships for John to reduce and then take those last two cities, but even with full commitments it will take time.  In the meantime, a huge part of the Jap army is tied up here.  Right now, that's fine since I can't really push John elsewhere; but how long will it be fine?  A month?  Three?  Five?  If John succeeds, he wins; but what if it drags out for months until a point where the Allies are able to take the initiative?  How big a drain would it be logistically to try to extract his troops from the continent?

NZ:  To answer your question, Mismatz, I just sent about 30k supplies from Auckland to Sydney (to my surprise, every one of the transports made it), so NZ is running low right now.  Auckland is a level 9 port, so she can support minelaying activities, but the few ML and DM I have left are at Pearl now.  I've lost quite a few - some at Sydney to surface combat clashes many months ago, some at Wotje in the recent past.  The few that are left are precious and couldn't be risked in NZ, where John's combat ships an raid at will.  But I don't think there's a real threat to NZ any longer (unless John lost his mind and pulled his troops out of Oz and shifted them to NZ).  The North Island cities are strongly garrisoned, so it would take a huge commitment by the Japs, but they are fully occupied in OZ for the foreseeable future.

Burma:  I've ordered a delib attack in the hex south of Lashio for tomorrow.  I want to overcome the two Jap divisions there so that I can move some of these Chinese units down to Meiktila.  John has reinforcements arriving at Rangoon, so it's going to get tougher to prevail in this battle.  I outnumber him 3 to 1, so I'm surprised I haven't made more headway there to date.

Wotje:  I'm very worried about the long-term health of this Allied outpost.  It's drawing alot of Jap attention, which is nice for Australia, but the garrison needs to hold for a long time to come.

Score: Japs 37,059; Allies 10,988

[bradfordkay]

For now, you have to be very careful not to lose another 7000 vp more than he does in the next few months. I would not make any risky moves with my major naval assets, as this is the second most likely method of losing those points - the first being the loss of Oz and all those troops. Keep trying to slip some supplies into Oz if you can.

[Canoerebel]

12/29/42
 
Agreed, Bradford.  For now the US CVs remain in port or close to home.  It's going to be nearly impossible to get more supplies to Oz, at least in the near term. 
 
Australia:  A small Jap DD TF entererd Sydney harbor.  One hit a mine, but the two managed to sink an AK.  Allied bombers had another effective day hitting Japanese units around Sydney, but the problem is that these constant raids suck on suppies.  So I sent a couple of B24 squadrons to NZ.
 
Burma:  The Chinese emereged victorious from the battle near Lashio.  After more than 200 Allied 2E and 4E bombers hit the hex, a 2:1 deliberate attack resulted in 150/1 to the Japs and 167/5 to the Allies, and the two Jap divisions retreated to Taiung Gyi.  That opens the road for some of these Chinese troops to move on to Meiktila.  Both sides are sending reinforcements there - the Allies more, but the Japs are already withstanding attacks despite 1:3 odds, so that means even if I send three x the number of reinforcements I'm just tread ing water?  We'll see.
 
China:  Things have quieted down.  Both sides are bombarding in a variety of locations, but there aren't any major troop movements at the moment (except the Allies air transporting units to Lashio).
 
CV Essex:  Newly arrived in Panama City, she came equipped with Hellcats.  I'm not positive, but I think in my other game (with Miller, also using Big B mod) she arrived with Wildcats.  I'll take the upgrade.

[Canoerebel]

12/30/42 to 1/5/43
 
Australia:  The Japs have not moved into the Melbourne and Sydney hexes, and have not yet begun a sustained, major bombing campaign against these two cities.  John has moved sufficient fighters into place - especially at Newcastle - to prevent the Allied bombers from having the skies to themselves.  I've shifted most Allied fighters to Sydney.  Many of the short-legged bombers went to Melbourne, while a half-dozen long-legged ones went to Auckland.  I think John is reorganizing his forces and bringing in supplies and support personnel before beginning his moves on the two cities.  An Aussie tank regiment (56 AV) arrives in 7 days, and an army division (AV 300+) in 38 days. AV isn't going to be a problem; supplies will be.
 
Burma:  The battle for Meiktila continues, with both sides doing alot of stuff trying to gain an advantage.  An Allied deliberate attack on the 2nd at 0:1 dropped forts from 6 to 5 and cost the Japs 1021/35 to the Allied losses of 5880/60/4.  Another deliberate attack will occur on the 6th.  John figured out I was air transporting Chinese units to Lashio, so he's posted LRCAP over the city.  He shoots down two or three Dakotas a day, not enough to stop the program.  The final elements of two Chinese units will be in place in another day or two.  Then I'll shift many of these transports to Akyab where I plan to airlift an Indian division to Mandalay.  A sizeable Jap army is moving from Magwe to the road between Meiktila and Mandalay.  I have forces in the in-between hex, but I don't think they are enough to defeat John's troops.  That means control of this hex will be disputed.  If tomorrow's attack at Meiktila doesn't go well, I may pull back my troops a hex to attack that Magwe contingent.  I've got well over 200K troops at Meiktila now.  John has 100k.  If I could just take Meiktila, a bunch of Jap troops would be caught on the wrong foot, stuck near Magwe and Taing Gai with long, long marches to extract themselves.
 
China:  Nothing new - both sides have diverted enough troops from this theater that I don't think either can sustain a major attack that would have a chance of accomplishing anything.
 
CenPac:  Regular jap bombings at Wotje, but Allied supplies are still 40k.

[Canoerebel]

1/6/43 to 1/9/43
 
Australia:  The not-eagerly anticipated Japanese bombing campaign in Australia began on the 8th and 9th.  Bombers and fighters filled the skies as John hit Melbourne.  Two squadrons of Allied fighters put up a pretty decent fight, but couldn't cope with the numbers, so about a score of bombers were destroyed on the ground.  I've shifted the surviving bombers to Sydney, where the CAP is much stronger.  I'm not going to replace bombers, simply because they'll get blasted on the ground if John employs overwhelming numbers as he probably will.  I will try to nurse my fighters along as best I can for as long as I can.
 
Burma:  The Allies seem to be making headway at Meiktila, so the question is whether John is bringing reinforcements that can plug the hole in the dike before it fails.  A 1:1 deliberate attack on the 6th dropped forts to four and cost the Japs 2335/29 to 6042/71/5.  The next day, one Allied unit attacked, got beat up, but showed that forts were back to 5 (John's engineers must have had forts ready to rise another level).  Another 1:1 deliberate attack on the 6th inflicted 1810/46/23 to 2147/101/3 and dropped forts back to 4.  The odds were actually closer to 1.5:1, so thing are a beginning to look promising here assuming the Japs don't bring in enough reinforcements to seriously impact the odds.
 
CenPac:  The Japs continue to work over Wotje; the Allies continue to have no clue what if anything they can do here or in SoPac in the foreseeable future.

[Canoerebel]

1/10/43 to 1/13/43
 
Burma:  The Allies are making steady progress reducing the fortifications at Meiktila.  On the 11th, a deliberate attack at 1:1 reduced forts to 3.  The Japs lost 1367/5/15, the Allies 2862/52/2.  Another try on the 13th dropped forts to 2.  The Japs lost 1420/34/24 to 2873/59/3. 
 
I was worried about a Jap force from Magwe moving to the hex in between Meiktila and Mandalay.  This force including 21st division.  Advanced units, including the 21st, arrived on the 12th and the Allies attacked on the 13th.  This resulted in a surprising 26:1 route, the Japs losing 431/18 to 244/13.  The Japs retreated toward Magwe.  This will allow me to send more units from this hex to Meiktila. 
 
Unless John has reinforcements near or something goes badly awry, it seems that the Allies will take Meiktila pretty soon.  So what happens then?  I'm amazed at how this campaign has weakened the Chinese units involved - many have AVs of 20-40 now.  So they will need alot of rest and replenishment.  My army has been weakened to the extent that I doubt I can take Rangoon.  But I may advance and take a stab at Moulmein if it is lightly held.  The Japs, in turn, may have some units cut off - those at Magwe and those at Taung Gyi (although the latter do have a poor-road route into Thailand).  I may also probe Rangoon if I think there's any chance it could be taken.
 
Wotje:  Things look bad here.  The Japs are committing alot of reinforcements, including artillery and engineers, and now have an unmodfied AV 3x that of the Allies.  Allied mines and subs are exacting a toll on Japanese shipping, but it's too little to affect the outcome of this battle.  There's nothing really I can do to relieve Wotje now.  We may soon here John unleashing his "Banzai" yells.
 
Australia:  Status quo here.  Jap bombers are striking the damaged shipping at Melbourne, but the Japs haven't yet advanced over land.  The Allied AV at Sydney is 2600.  Melbourne is 2250.  I'm beginning to think there's no way John can take these cities, but then I remember that he can bring his entire army, navy, and air force here since he's not pressured anywhere else (except Burma, and that's too far to siphon off troops from the middle Pacific.  That doesn't mean the Japs will prevail here, but I'm not feeling my oats right now.
 
China:  John moved four divisions to Wuchow from Kanhsien.  That isn't enough to threaten the garrison.
 
Points:   Same point spread right now - 37,500 to 11,500.  John gets about 4800 points if he takes Mel and Syd.  I don't know how many points he'll get for wiping out Aussie troops, plus wiping out the Marines at Wotje.  At this point, I don't think John will achieve an auto-victory.

[Q-Ball]

Dan, great AAR still. I think that is a good move in Burma, take some pressure off, one of the few places you can do that without committing the US Navy.

I predict you will hold Australia, provided you don't run out of supplies. I would stop using bombers (I think you said you are pretty much going to do that).

If I was John, I would have lots of Bettys stationed at Newcastle or near Sydney, that would make it impossible to get supplies in without losses. If Wotje falls, I would transfer my old BB's down there to bombard Sydney every day.

I don't think you will lose Sydney or Melbourne in the next month or two. I do however think by month 3 or 4, you will be in a critical state in Supplies, and will have to fight through a convoy somehow. Committing your CV's to that is very risky, but I don't see another way. I could be completely wrong.

[Canoerebel]

1/14/43 to 1/17/43
 
This was an inauspicious period for the Allies; so bleak-looking, in fact, that the New York Times has called for resignations of the entire US Military - from Commander in Chief down to battallion level.  Oof.
 
Wotje:  The garrison capitulated through no fault of their own.  They held on gamely against tough odds and weren't reinforced.  A month of constant bombing and bombardment, then the invasion followed by reinforcements, spelled doom for the Marines.  A deliberate attack at 1:1 on the 15th dropped forts from 4 to 3 and cost the Japs 1395/51 to 1286/35/1.  Another attack the following day came off at 4:1.  The Allies capitulated.  There was one final Allied offensive that brought some smiles - 12 PT boats damaged and sank quite a few Jap AKs and MSW over two or three days.
 
I learned a tough lesson at Wotje that I'll put to good use in the future.  My instincts that I could pull off the initial invasion were right, and the invasion did at least temporarily bring some relief to Australia as John deployed the KB around Wotje.  But the invasion needed either the ability to bring in supplies or reinforcements, or to create such mayhem elsewhere that the Japs were crippled or severly hampered in their ability to deal with two "critical" areas.  So the invasion ultimately died with a wimper.
 
Australia:  The press was shocked to see the arrival of the entire Jap army at Sydney.  Well, the press exaggerated a bit, but there are seven divisions (4, 20, 10, 16, 48, 2, and 56), two brigades (7th Ind. and 1st Mixed), six tank regiments, three artillery units, and three engineers.  These guys showed up on the 15th and promplty bombarded (doing little damage - 33 casualties).  The Jap army is 174,446/2050/37 strong with an unmodified AV of 4238.  The Allied army is 166,227/1199/326 with an unmodified AV of 2767.  Forts are 9.  Supplies are 48k.  The Japs bombarded again on the 16th and 17th getting similar puny results.  If the Japs are beat up bad when they attack, I'll weigh the possibility of counter-attacking the following turn (but only if the Japs get really savaged).  Allied bombers (the few that remain) struck shipping at Newcastle on the 17th, torpedoeing three ships.  Despite the shock of seeing Jap troops in Sydney, I feel good about things at the moment.  A major dogfight over Melbourne on the 14th cost the Japs 38 Zeros, 7 Tonys, 8 Sallys, and 4 Helens.  The Allies lost 18 Hurricanes, 7 Spitfires, and 5 Kittyhawks.
 
Burma:  Things were going good, but Jap reinforcements have arrived on the 16th, so I'm not sure what the future holds.  On the 14th, an Allied deliberate attack at 1:1 dropped forts to 2 and inflicted 2932/45/20 to 2357/49/1 (the first time the Japs took greater losses; there was great rejoicing in Allied HQ, but it only lasted another day).  Another deliberate at 1:1 on the 15th dropped forts to 1 (yay!) and inflicted 2031/59/1 to 3274/56/7.  But the Jap 38th Division was seen on sight followed the next day by 21st Div.  Allied bombers with escorts have been hitting Meiktila daily doing pretty good damage.  Beauforts from Chittagong sank three ML on the 15th or 16th.  I've pulled a bunch of depleted Chinese units back to Mandalay (AVs ranged from zero - zero for goodness sake! - to about 25) and replaced them with part of an Indian division and two strong Chinese units.  I'll try another deliberate attack tomorrow.  If things turn out poorly, I'll have to seriously evaluate the future of the Allied campaign against Meiktila.
 
China:  The four Jap divisions that showed up at Wuchow promptly withdrew.  They didn't stand a chance and Chinese bombardments were hitting them pretty hard (300 casualties a day).

[ny59giants]

In Burma you may have to do just bombardment attacks for few days. Then send in your LBA and launch a shock attack to get him out of the base and hex. Just time it right. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

1/18/43
 
A few important updates from today:
 
Australia:  The Allies bombarded at Sydney and the Japs lost 369/13/2.  That's pretty good results and about 10x what the Japs are inflicting.  However, supplies dropped rather dramatically (I think from about 48k to about 42k).  I didn't realize bombarding ate up supplies?  I'll monitor this.  I may just have to batten down the hatches, sit here, and wait.  Allied (Aussie and Dutch) fighters got the best of the Japs over Melbourne again.
 
Burma:  The Allied deliberate attack again came off at 1:1 and dropped forts to 0.  The Japs lost 1095/26 and the Allies 2866/55/3.  I'll rest my troops a day or two and then try again.  I'm also interested in seeing how quickly the depleted Chinese units that pulled back to Mandalay fill with replacements.  This campaign has taken a big toll on Allied fighting capability.  When it started, the odds were so great in my favor that I really expected to steamroll through Meiktila and to have at least a chance at Rangoon.  But my troops are much weaker now and John has had time to bring in a fair number of reinforcements.  If I can take Meiktila, the best I can probably hope for is to force John to relinquish Magwe, and to bomb the Jap troops while they retreat from there and Taung Gyi (assuming they retreat).  John has handled the defense well, stymiing the Allies in a situation that once looked very promising.
 
Turns:  The Allied turns don't take very long these days.  I issue a few orders to the troops and aircraft in Burma, take a quick look at the Sydney and Melbourne garrisons, grimace at the Pacific, and end the turn.  I still have hopes of pulling this out - and mounting a comeback would be oh, so sweet! - but it would also be almost a relief to see John take his well-earned auto-victory so that I could try again.

[ny59giants]

Your supplies were pulled to replace those used for the attack and "I think" that some will get close to twice their normal amounts. If you don't use them, they should return to the base in a few days. However, most of them, if not all of them, should have full supply if John attacks you.
 
Don't quote me on all this (but others will or correct me [:D]), but I think I'm close to the truth here.

[Canoerebel]

1/19/43 and 1/20/43
 
India:  John slipped a Mini-KB into the Indian Ocean southwest of Bombay.  This TF launched 69 Vals and 69 Kates against a transport TF that had just exited the Aden channel, sinking three AK and a DD.  Three more AK suffered moderate damage.  The Brits have two CVs and CVL Hermes at Madras.  The fighers are Seafires, the torpedo bombers are Albacores.  I'm willing to risk these ships under limited circumstances - I'll post them off Colombo maybe three hexes, and from there P38Gs will provide LRCAP.  With the extra protection afforded by the Lightnings, and the proximity of a Level 9 port to handle damaged ships, it's worth a shot.  So I've transferred parts of three P38 squadrons to Colombo, along with perhaps 40 Liberator IIIs.  I will be surprised if John ventures close enough to permit an engagement, but let's see what happens.
 
Burma:  More Jap reinforcements arrived at Meiktila (4th Mixed Reg't, which I've known was coming thanks to SigInt).  Nevertheless, the Allies got off a 1:1 deliberate attack on the 20th.  The modified AVs were 2364 (Allies) to 1677.  The Japs lost 1029/92 to 3070/24/1.  It's a good sign that the Allies are still getting 1:1 odds.  I forgot to check my troops for the next turn, so don't know if they are still set for deliberate attack or if they reset to defend.  The Chinese troops that pulled back to Mandalay are steadily growing.  At first, their AVs ranged from 0 to 20.  Now most are from 20 to 45.  If push comes to shove, I can recommit some of these to the battle.  That's about all I have left, although two Indian divisions will arrive at Aden in a month or so.
 
Australia:  John is bombarding at Sydney, but he hasn't tried any air strikes the past several days.  He seems to be very protective of his aircraft.  I'm not sure it's warranted here.  He might take some losses by pulverizing my airfields for a few turns, but I have little doubt he could shut down my fields and keep me from flying at all.  So I'm thankful he's protective.  An Aussie division is due to arrive at Sydney in about three weeks.  Will it arrive with Jap units in the hex?  If not, does it go to Melbourne, or just remain "on the shelf"?
 
Score:  I'm not sure exactly why, by John seems to be getting further from auto-victory rather than closer.  The score right now is 39,000 to nearly 12,000.  Him finishing off Australia would seriously lower the spread, of course.
 
US CVs:  I've left my subs at Wotje to take shots at Jap transports.  John seems to be pulling out some or most of his troops there.  They are probably headed for Australia.  I don't know what he'll do with the KB, but if it shows up way down there, I might have a chance to strike someplace further north (Midway?) without too much risk to my carriers.  So CV Essex and the fleet of CVEs at Panama City are heading to Pearl.  The US CV fleet currently consists of three CVs, six CVEs, and CVL Princeton about to arrive.

[Alfred]

Bases need to be in supply in order for their VP points to count.  Could it be that your opponent has difficulties supplying some of his bases?
 
Alfred

[Canoerebel]

1/21/43 to 1/24/43
 
India:  Based upon John's post in The War Room, I'm aware now that his Indian Ocean Mini-KB consists of Akagi, Kaga, and Hiryu.  That's a pretty stout force.  It's moved south again and I've posted the Royal Navy flattops three hexes south of Colombo, covered by three P38G squadrons flying LRCAP.  If these forces are going to tangle, it will be tomorrow.  It's not often I'll get the chance to face Jap CVs on what I know to be relatively even terms (the P38s hopefully level the playing field), so I'm rolling the dice a bit here.
 
Burma:  The Allies tried a 1:1 deliberate attack on the 23rd.  Somehow, forts had increased to two, so John must have a bunch of engineers building like crazy.  The attack dropped forts to 1 and inflicted 1372/16/ to 1995/23/9.  On the 24th, the Allies bombarded, inflicting 1266/35/8 - high numbers.  The Jap units must be pretty disorganized and fatigued.  Tomorrow the Allies will try a shock attack, the first in a heck of a long time.  Something's gotta give.
 
Australia:  No major developments here.  No Jap troops at Melbourne.  Those at Sydney are only bombarding and haven't thus far tried a more committed attack.

[Canoerebel]

1/25/43
 
Australia:  Once again, the Japs were content to bombard Allied troops at Sydney, with little effect.  The Japs have 177,324/2170/37 with a raw AV of 4278.  The Allies have 167,784/1207/333 with a raw AV of 2798.  Forts are 9, supplies about 42k (with 15k needed).  Another Aussie division will arrive in about two weeks (assuming reinforcements will arrive when the target city is under a state of seige), boosting the Allied AV to around 3,100.  I assume John is awaiting the arrival of reinforcements - from Wotje he can bring a division and a number of brigades.  I'll be interested in seeing how the first Japanese attack does.  For heaven's sake, it's late January!
 
India:  The Mini-KB slipped by the Brit CVs without anything happening.
 
Burma:  The Japs staged a well-coordinated fighter ambush of Allied bombers targeting Meiktila, downing some 55.  The Allied shock attack almost made it to 2:1 (adjusted AV of 5207 to 2635).  The 1:1 dropped forts to 0 and inflicted 1578/31/3 to 3903/27/10.  I'll bombard for a few days and try again.  The marathon battle continues.
 
The Pacific:  I've just about decided that the Allies will not embark on any major offensive operations (with one possible exception, as detailed below) until the Summer of '43 - enough time for the Allied CV fleet to grow markedly and for Hellcats to replace Wildcats.  The KB will be truly massive by then, but the Hellcats should make the odds considerably less one-sided.  The exception to this restraint is if most of the KB shows up far, far away from Pearl Harbor (say Australia or the Aleutians) in which case the Allies may take a stab at Midway.  For now, I'm just going to create diversions and mock invasions, hoping to keep John guessing and goad him into making a mistake.