Original Iridium:
It's mainly luck, both forces are equal.
After watching a lot of WPO/WitP surface actions, I agree that luck has a lot do with it. However, if they are truly equal then the naval actions should be working out with a 50/50 outcome. Given Japanese air superiority in the theater at the start of the game, the Allies really have to win a lopsided victory as Feinder pointed out so their system damage is light enough to get back to port before torpedo bombers sink them the day following the night combat.
So far, the testimony of battle would seem to be that:
1) Kongo's shared the weak armor flaw of British battlecruisers in WW1 when faced with opponents with capital ship main batteries.
2) Radar really is a big advantage in night combat.
3) Long Lance torpedoes are devastating but unreliable in the sense that the tactical opportunities to score a hit are highly uncertain.
I think the first two points would pass muster as conventional wisdom. I think the last point is counter-intuitive given the success of the IJN in the opening phases of WW2 right up through Savo Island and some of the subsequent actions around Guadalcanal. If we get reports of Japanese victory that depend on torpedo hits instead of gunfire for the margin of victory that would still agree with the third conclusion given the absence of fatal damage in the four case reported so far.
This might be a case where people are over-valuing the Kongo's based on their armament so things are less equal than they seem given the vulnerability of the Kongo's to shell-fire and the enhanced capability of radar directed gun-fire.
This general argument can be attacked from the game/simulation view point. But that was the original point of the thread anyway. In a sense, I'm narrowing down the original question to whether in the tactical segments of the game, dreadnought on dreadnought actions are reasonable given what we know about naval combat in the period. It might also lead Japanese players to be more cautious when employing their Kongo's or Allied players to be less deterred from accepting surface battle in the presence of Kongo's.