Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Miller]

Hi Dan. Yes I would wait for Hellcats if I were you, they made the difference in our game[:@]

[Canoerebel]

1/26/43 to 1/28/43
 
Burma:  At long last, the Allies were victorious and took Meiktila.  The Jap's capitulated after a 3:1 shock attack on the 28th.  Some 20 Jap units are retreating toward Rangoon and Jap garrisons at Magwe and Taung Gyi are now somewhat isolated.  The victory didn't mean much - Meiktila is worth 16 to the Japs and 8 to the Allies - but it is the first offensive Allied victory of the game.  There have been a few - a very few - other victories, but those were in delaying actions in Australia and the rather hopeless effort at Wotje.  But the Allies are truly on the offensive in Burma, though things aren't going as I had hoped.
 
In fact, this victory reminds me of the British success at the Battle of Guilford Courthouse during the American Revolution.  In summing up the battle, the British commander said, "Another such victory shall ruin us" (or something like that).  Indeed, the Allies began this battle with overwhelming numbers and access to reinforcements.  But the Jap airforce, fortifications, and determined defense caused the campaign to drag out for two months rather than the 10 days to two weeks I had foreseen at the outset.
 
Mind you, I'm not complaining.  I'm glad I have the city.  Now I'm not positive what to do.  I think the Allied army is too worn down to have a chance at Rangoon, yet the Japs are also worn out.  So I'll advance part of my army a hex and then decide whether to make a token try for Rangoon, or instead to move back toward the sort of isolated Japs at Magwe.
 
Australia:  Nothin' happenin'.

[Canoerebel]

1/29/43 to 2/6/43
 
Australia:  Yikes, supplies at Sydney are dropping like a rock...down to 25k now.  The Jap airforce finally appeared over Sydney in large numbers over several turns, and the Allied fighters weren't up to the challenge.  The first big fight occurred on the 2nd, with the Japs losing 34 aircraft and the Allies 75.  The next day, the Japs lost 41 and the Allies 54.  On the 14th, the Japs lost 14 and the Allies 29.  On the 6th, Japs hit shipping in Melbourne and the airfield and supplies over Sydney.  The Allies don't get enough replacements for Spitfires, Hurricanes, and Kittyhawks to make good the losses.  So I just have to take it now.  Ouch.
 
Burma:  The Allies dislodged the Jap units blocking the road between Rangoon and Meiktila.  The first attack - a shock on the 4th - was a 1:1 that cost the Japs 545/27/1 to 2316/30/8.  Reinforcements arrived, and a deliberate attack on the 6th came in at 3:1 and inflicted 1003/88/4 to 1515/15/1.  The Allied units will advance one hex, which will bring them within a hex of Moulmein and Rangoon.  From there, I'll decide what to do.  I don't think I have near enough to threaten Rangoon, so I may try a quick strike at Moulmein.  This offers a variety of perils, including the fact that Allied units there can be cut off if the Japs advance out of Rangoon.  I've also got Japs in the rear - at Magwe (a fairly small force) and Taung Gai (at least two weakened divisions).  I have enough troops in the rear that these don't threaten Mandalay, Lashio, or Meiktila as long as I don't get careless.
 
China:  I'm toying around with a strike on Canton.  The Japs have just 8 units and 75k troops there.  The Allies can bring at least 7000 AV from Wuchow, Changsha, and vicinity.
 
The Pacific:  Essex arrived at Pearl, giving the Allies 4 CVEs and 3 CVs.  Three more CVEs are at Panama City awaiting arrival of CVL Independence.  I'm considering a rather bold, risky long-range plan that I won't get into now, but in the near term it would help if I took Midway.  So I may try throwing everything there in a month or so.  CV Essex has Hellcats, and in a month perhaps my other fleet CVs will too.  I know John recently had Akagi, Kaga, and Hiryu in the Indian Ocean, and Junyo was just sighted off the SE coast of NZ, so I won't be facing the entire KB...well, unless he consolidates his forces in the meantime, which is a possibility.

[Canoerebel]

2/7/43 to 2/12/43
 
Australia:  The Japs continue to bombard and bomb Sydney each turn, and a powerful combat TF including two BBs shelled the defenses on the 12th.  However, the Japs haven't launched any ground attacks yet, and the 9th Aussie Division arrived in town bringing the Allies AV to 3062.  The Japs arrived at Sydney on 1/14, but so far haven't done much to reduce Allied defenses - the only exception being destroying or driving out Allied aircraft.  There's still time for the Japs to deliver concerted bombings and ground attacks, but just how long can John afford to sit here and not accomplish much?  The Allies shifted all the fighters to Melbourne to replace losses.  So far the Japs aren't molesting them.
 
Burma:  The Allied army has arrived a hex from Rangoon/Moulmain and the Japs are contesting the hex with 2 divisions, two artillery units, a mixed brigade, and more.  Allied bombardments are doing some damage.  A 1:1 deliberate attack on the 10th cost the Japs 1239/39 and the Allies 1794/29/6.  I think the Allies will take the hex fairly soon and then they can probe Rangoon and Moulmein.  I doubt the Allies will be able to take either city.
 
China:  The Allies are trying to surreptiously shift some units a bit closer to Canton, but John generally sniffs out such schemes and responds before they have a chance of succeeding.
 
CenPac:  CVL Independence arrived at Panama City; it and 3 CVEs are sailing for Pearl Harbor.  The Allies may move on Midway in about a month.  A Jap CV seen by a coastwatcher down around Goodland Island, steaming toward the Society Islands?  This might be a force intended to interdict Allied merchant ships making the sprint from the Panama Canal to New Zealand.

[Canoerebel]

2/13/43 to 2/21/43
 
Australia:  Japanese troops arrived at Sydney on January 14, but still haven't done anything but bombard.  The Japanese airforce continues to hit the town daily, and Jap ships bombard once in awhile, but thus far no concerted effort to take the town.  John has accomplished two things - reducing supplies and minimizing the presence of Allied aircraft - but eventually he's going to have to attack on the ground. 
 
Allied fighters had pulled out to Melbourne and rebuilt some numbers.  Then, on the 21st, they staged back to Sydney.  The result was 30 Jap aicraft downed and 14 Aussies.  I'll try that type of ambush every five or six days, assuming John doesn't begin a methodical air campaign against Melbourne too.  He can shut down both airfields if he wants to.
 
Burma:  The Allies finally pushed back the Jap units defending the hex north of Rangoon.  A 1:1 on the 15th inflicted 1349/27 on the Japs to 488/15/1 for the Allies.  A 2:1 attack the next day did the trick, the Japs suffering 615/21 and the allies 1407/25/6.  To my surprise, the defenders pulled back to Moulmein rather than Rangoon.  At first I was disappointed, as I thought I had a better shot at that city.  But the retreat seems to have left the Japs a little short in Rangoon.  The defense consists of 19th Division plus two brigades, a regiment, two naval guards units, three armored units, and on artillery unit.  The Japs have 71,583/542/310 with an unmodified AV of 1256.  This is similar (or slightly less) than what the Allies faced at Meiktila, but the Japs should be well-supplied, well-fortified, and have control of the air.  So I'll give it the ol' college try, but I doubt the Allies can take the town.
 
China:  I think, for once, the movement of mass numbers of Chinese troops from Changsha to points south hasn't been noticed.  The Chinese will make a sudden, massive strike on Canton in about two weeks.  If Canton is underdefended, the Chinese will have a chance.  If not, so be it.  Nothing ventured....
 
CenPac:  The three fleet CVs at Pearl are now sporting Hellcats.  The Allies may move on Midway fairly soon if they feel like it, the tea leaves read right, and nobody gets indigestion or cold feet in the meantime.  Or I may first stage a huge mock invasion to see if I can draw in the KB for battle close enough to French Frigate so that the P38s can provide some LRCAP.

[Canoerebel]

2/22/43 to 2/26/43
 
February 26 was the best day of the war thus far for the Allies.  The Japs attacked at Sydney, and the Allies attacked at Rangoon, and both were Allied victories.
 
Australia:  The day began with several Jap combat TFs entering Sydney harbor to bombard.  At least one CL and one DD hit mines.  Jap bombers struck later in the day, with AA fire downing about a dozen aircraft.  Then, after some 42 days besieging the city, the Japs finally attacked.  The Jap force consists of 182,787/2254/38 with an unmodified AV of 4679.  The Allies have 180,672/1371/349 with an unmodified AV of 3142.  The city has 9 forts, but supplies are low.  The modified AVs were Japs 202 and Allies 55,525 (some hefty modification).  The resulting 0:1 cost the Japs 4341/208/11 to 91/6/1.
 
At the same time, the Japs are moving reinforcements to Sydney, including one unit of unknown size and makeup that is shifting over from Melbourne.  John has two small stacks besieging Melbourne, one in Port Kembla and the second to the west on the road to Adelaide.  Smelling an opportunity (or suffering from victory disease), the Allies will move a substantial part of the ground assets out on that road to strike the enemy.  A success will isolate the Jap troops in Port Kembla.  An Aussie division, brigade, and host of smaller units will remain in Melbourne and should be sufficient to hold the city while I give this a shot.
 
Do the Japs have any chance of reducing and taking Sydney now?  If John concludes he doesn't, what does he do next?
 
Burma:  I sent a couple of units into Rangoon to probe the strength of the defenses and was surprised to find them weaker than anticipated.  I mentioned the garrison in the last post, but I then learned the garrison has just 7 forts.  So I decided to try a deliberate attack and this came off much better than anticipated.  The Allies have 166,208/749/1544 with unmodified AV of 4161.  The Jap force is 75,473/596/334 and 1318.  With 7 forts, the attack came off at a surprising 2:1 (modified Allied AV of 2936 to 1265 for the Japs).  Forts dropped to 6 and the Japs lost 2945/58/7 to 1575/101/35.
 
The Allied airforce struck Rangoon too, trading losses on a 1:1 basis and damaging the airfield a mite.
 
What now?  The Allies will bombard for a turn and then attack again.  I'm worried about the Japs at Moulmein moving across the river to try to cut off the Allied units at Rangoon.  But the Allied rearguard there is fairly hefty - about 600 AV.  I'm moving some more troops forward from Mandalay/Meiktila, but I can't strip those areas due to the Jap units at Magwe and Taung Gai.
 
I'll bet John will try to move heaven and earth to get reinforcements into Rangoon, and he may be successful.  But the Allies have at least a shot at taking this city.
 
China:  The sneak attack aimed at Canton is in preparation stages.  I don't know if it has a prayer.
 
CenPac:  The Allies continue to mull over a move on Midway, but the real thinking is going into a wild plan I may try to pull off in a few months, although things could develop that would make taking the risk much less attractive or even undoable.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

2/27/43 to 3/3/43
 
Australia:  Shortly after the decisive defeat at Sydney on February 26, where a Jap deliberate attack gave the impression that the Japs don't have much of a chance there, the Japs pulled out a number of troops.  Where there had been 7 divisions, there are now just 4.  Raw troop numbers declined from 180k to 91k.  While this was happening, the Allies advanced west out of Melbourne and drove back the Jap defenders - including Imperial Guards and 56th Brigade.  Then the Allied army returned to Melbourne.
 
So the Japs suffered some setbacks in SE Australia, but I'm not sure what John is doing.  Is he pulling back troops to rest?  Will he concentrate now on Melbourne?  Or is this a true retreat?  If the latter, could he have another major offensive in mind, such as a strike on New Zealand or (however unlikely) India?  Or might John have decided to begin focusing on his defenses?  At this point, I don't know which, if any, of these alternatives could be the right one.
 
I would prefer at this point to John to remain focused on the offensive.  It's late and the Allies have a great deal of territory to recover.  If John goes on the defensive like, say, JWilkerson did in his game versus Moses, it'll be hard for the Allies to ever get untracked.  JWilkerson would methodically move his main troop concentration back from forward bases as Moses advanced, so that the MLR always seemed to remain in front of Moses.  If John does that, I'll never get anywhere.  I'd prefer for him to remain focused on his front lines, thus creating a hard exterior shell but with a softer interior.  Because I have a few ideas....
 
Burma:  The Japs are reinforcing Rangoon.  The Allies will try another deliberate attack tomorrow (the first in about five days).  I don't think the Allies are going to take Rangoon anytime soon, but I do want to keep the pressure on so that John is fully focused on the area.  The Japs still control the air, which is a major problem.
 
China:  The massed Allied army heading to Canton will be in place to advance within a few days.  The Japs still have just 8 units in Canton, so it should be weak enough that the Allied advance will at least create a bona fide threat, giving John another place to worrry about.
 
CenPac:  CVL Independence and 3 more CVEs arrived at Pearl Harbor.  The US now has 3 CVs, 1 CVL, and 7 CVEs here.  The CVs and CVL are equipped with Hellcats.  I don't want to risk my carriers until more CVLs arrive, but this force could do some damage if it tangled with the KB, I believe.  Midway is strongly held - something like 50K troops.  I don't want to tackle anything that strong.  I hope, though, that it's another indicator that John is maintaining the hard exterior crust/soft interior defense.  With so many troops in Australia, Burma, Midway, etc., could it really be otherwise?

[saj42]

Don't forget that (I think) 3 of those CVEs have Replenishment squadrons on them with low pilot experience.

That was a big surprise at Sydney, with the IJA loosing like that.

[Mistmatz]

Grats on your victories in Australia. The psychological effect of his so far uncontested troops should be tremendous. [:D]
I wouldn't assume anything big happening in India but NZ could be at risk for sure. What do you have there to defend?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, Tallyho, many of those CVE squadrons are really poor - experience levels in the 40s.  I'll see if I can get them some work.  On a similar note, I have a Dutch Kittyhawk squadron in India with experience level of 23 (it just dropped from 30).  Now that's bad!
 
Mismatz, New Zealand is fairly strong - I have AV 650 in Auckland with 9 forts; a Marine Raider batallion at Hamilton (guarding against paratroops); a RCT, US Cav division, and artillery regiment at Gisborne; and about 500 AV in Wellington (including Americal Division) with 9 forts.  The South Island has only what it began with and any reinforcements.  This is strong enough that he can't take NZ without a big commitment, which would take alot of time and greatly weakend his presence in Australia. In fact, at this late point I think I would welcome an attack there as it would fully occupy him in a remote location.
 
Based upon what I've seen on March 4, it appears that he is fully withdrawing from Sydney, and it also seems that he is pulling back from Melbourne rather than reinforcing.  I'm not going anywhere until I'm sure any advance doesn't risk getting cut-off, or him moving behind me, but if he's really going, then Port Kembla, Newcastle, and Geelong should be viable targets in the near future.
 
If, indeed, the Allies managed to hold on to Australia, it was by the skin of their teeth.  The Allies struggled to get all units to Melbourne and Sydney, and the keys were (1) the Allied brigade that recaptured Kalgoorlie allowing the Perth defenders to retreat successfully; (2) The pull-back of troops from Alice Springs was just soon enough to allow these troops to make Adelaide before the Jap advance from Perth cut them off; (3) 4th Australian Division, the real heroes of the war thus far for the Allies, repeatedly driving back Japanese armored units allowing the large stack of Allied units in Adelaide to retreat; and (4) The Allied units holding Brisbane, the crossroads hex west of Sydney, and Newcastle, all held out and then retreated before they suffered any disorganizing, fatigued retreat.
 
But I'm under no illusions about the Allied position at this point in the game.  John used his experience and boldness to put the Allies in a big, big hole.  Nevertheless, holding Australia and avoiding a Jap auto-victory are a big relief.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

3/4/43 and 3/5/43
 
This period saw the high water mark for the Confederacy...er, I mean the Japs.  At least it had better be, because this high water mark has put the Allies in a big, big hole.  The Japs kept the initiative much farther into the game, and took much more territory than normal. 

Australia:  The Japs seem to be pulling out of SE Australia.  Darwin CMF force advanced into an unoccupied Geelong and recaptured the port on the 5th, knocking about 100 points off the Jap victory point level.  So I think the 4th was probably the biggest point differential in the game (again, I hope this is the start of a positive trend).  The differential on the 4th was 40,468 to 13,647 = 26,821.  The next day, it was 40339 to 13,667 = 26,672.  One small step for man...  The Japs still hold Port Kembla and Newcastle in force, and I'm not sure whether the bulk of the Japanese army is moving overland to a port like Brisbane or Adelaide to evacuate by sea, or whether they have moved back just temporarily and will advance again, or whether John is pulling out part but leaving behind enough to contest any Allied advance.  I'll advance cautiously.

NZ:  The Japs have been reconning Auckland for awhile, so it's possible John could shift his focus here to what would be an easier conquest than Sydney or Melbourne.  The North Island has a pretty strong garrison.  I can't send reinforcements from the US since John controls the sea lanes, so NZ stands on its own - as did Australia - for the foreseeable future.

Burma:  The Allies will try another deliberate attack tomorrow.  Expectations are not high.

China: The large stack set to hit Canton will begin arriving there in two or three days.  Another Jap unit just arrived at Canton, bringing the number of defenders to about 40k based upon early recon info, so John probably caught wind of this move.  But as best I can tell, Canton is fairly lightly garrisoned.  I'll know for sure in three or four days.  At the very least, I hope the situation is dire enough that John is torn about how to defend both Rangoon and Canton.  I'm more concerned about keeping his full attention here than I am about actually taking either city.  If John is concentrating fully on these, Australia (and possibly NZ), and the threat of an Allied invasion in Cen- or SoPac, that suits me.  Because that suits my long term plan....

Edited to Add: The Chinese army moving on Canton will have an AV of about 9500.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/4/43 and 3/5/43
 
This period saw the high water mark for the Confederacy...er, I mean the Japs.  At least it had better be, because this high water mark has put the Allies in a big, big hole.  The Japs kept the initiative much farther into the game, and took much more territory than normal. 

Australia:  The Japs seem to be pulling out of SE Australia.  Darwin CMF force advanced into an unoccupied Geelong and recaptured the port on the 5th, knocking about 100 points off the Jap victory point level.  So I think the 4th was probably the biggest point differential in the game (again, I hope this is the start of a positive trend).  The differential on the 4th was 40,468 to 13,647 = 26,821.  The next day, it was 40339 to 13,667 = 26,672.  One small step for man...  The Japs still hold Port Kembla and Newcastle in force, and I'm not sure whether the bulk of the Japanese army is moving overland to a port like Brisbane or Adelaide to evacuate by sea, or whether they have moved back just temporarily and will advance again, or whether John is pulling out part but leaving behind enough to contest any Allied advance.  I'll advance cautiously.

NZ:  The Japs have been reconning Auckland for awhile, so it's possible John could shift his focus here to what would be an easier conquest than Sydney or Melbourne.  The North Island has a pretty strong garrison.  I can't send reinforcements from the US since John controls the sea lanes, so NZ stands on its own - as did Australia - for the foreseeable future.

Burma:  The Allies will try another deliberate attack tomorrow.  Expectations are not high.

China: The large stack set to hit Canton will begin arriving there in two or three days.  Another Jap unit just arrived at Canton, bringing the number of defenders to about 40k based upon early recon info, so John probably caught wind of this move.  But as best I can tell, Canton is fairly lightly garrisoned.  I'll know for sure in three or four days.  At the very least, I hope the situation is dire enough that John is torn about how to defend both Rangoon and Canton.  I'm more concerned about keeping his full attention here than I am about actually taking either city.  If John is concentrating fully on these, Australia (and possibly NZ), and the threat of an Allied invasion in Cen- or SoPac, that suits me.  Because that suits my long term plan....

Edited to Add: The Chinese army moving on Canton will have an AV of about 9500.

Nice! [8D]

[Cap Mandrake]

Canoe;

Congrats on having the fortitude to reach the possible high water mark. John threatened NZ in our game too. There are some major points avialable there. I think you have good reason to be concerned about NZ. The good news is as the bubble gets bigger, it grows more unstable and the surface area is much greater. He has to be thin somewhere. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

I followed your game closely, especially the big CV battles east of New Zealand, and then the big contest for Perth.  Then John and I started out game in October of last year, and it came as quite a shock when we passed you in game date.  It was pretty discouraging as John made far greater progress against me.  I'm glad my troops finally stopped him at Melbourne and Sydney, but what a great hole to dig out from!

[Canoerebel]

3/6/43 to 3/10/43
 
China:  The first Allied units (two HQ, two infantry) arrived at Canton on the 10th, with another 39 or 40 on the way.  The first attack ought to take place in two or three days.  Recon shows 8 or 9 Jap units there about 60k strong.  I can't imagine the Allies taking Canton - nothing good ever happens in China - but there's at least a chance.  B25s in China hit four Jap transports just off the coast.
 
Burma:  An Allied deliberate attack on Rangoon o nthe 8th had these results:
Attacking force 159439 troops, 577 guns, 1487 vehicles, Assault Value = 3648 
Defending force 81109 troops, 681 guns, 330 vehicles, Assault Value = 1581 
Allied max assault: 3042 - adjusted assault: 1300 
Japanese max defense: 1700 - adjusted defense: 1689  
Allied assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 6)  
Japanese ground losses:
2431 casualties reported
Guns lost 42
Vehicles lost 17 
Allied ground losses:
5029 casualties reported
Guns lost 32
Vehicles lost 24
 
The Allies will rest a few more days and try again.  With John controlling the air over Rangoon, I don't have much hope of taking the city.  It's taking too long and he can bring in reinforcements.  My primary objective is to create alot of noise and concern to draw and keep John's attention.
 
Australia:  As best I can tell, the Japs are truly leaving Australia in big numbers.  A few Dutch torpedo planes from Sydney sank two ML at Newcastle, and B25s and B24s from Melbourne hit a transport convoy at Adelaide, damaging an AK and 4 APs.  There were some ground troop casualties, and I surmise these are troops embarking rather than debarking.  Nevertheless, Allied troops won't leave the safety of Melbourne and Sydney until I'm sure it's not a trap.

[Canoerebel]

3/11/43
 
All the signs are good at Canton, based upon the day's bombardments.  The Japs only have four divisions, one artillery unit, and two base forces in the city.  Total troop number is just 90,000 with a raw AV of 1600.
 
In comparison, the Allies currently have 200,000 troops with an AV of 2500, but that's less than a third of the force.  The whole force will have an AV of about 9500 with something like 350,000 or 400,000 troops.  I think the Chinese managed to steal this advance without detection for some time, and caught John by surprise.  That's what I hope anyhow.  I've got to wait a couple of days for the rest of my units to arrive.
 
I'm skeptical of ever accomplishing anything in China, especially against a major Jap force dug in with 9 forts (I assume), but when I compare this situation to Rangoon, where the battle has been fairly close, I can't help but feel I have a chance.
 
The Jap defense at Canton is nearly identical to Rangoon (AV 1600 to AV 1500) although John has many more artillery units at Rangoon, and Rangoon has only 6 forts.  The Allies at Rangoon have an AV of 3500 and have had some fairly successful attacks.  In comparison, the Allied AV at Canton will be nearly three times as large (but with far fewer artillery units, no engineers, and no armor).
 
With 9500 AV vs. 1600 AV, I assume the right thing to do is order a shock attack for the first assault, hoping to overwhelm the defenses?
 
The Japs haven't yet reposition fighters and bombers to bring their air superiority capability into play here, but I assume John will do that immediately. 
 
The good thing is that John should have two real hotspots to contend with.

[saj42]

I don't want to dampen your spirits regarding Canton - BUT remember that it is an Urban hex (with the benefits that it grants to the defender). An AV of 9500 might be enough....

[String]

I wouldn't do a shock attack. A deliberate first to assess the situation. Doing a shock attack and failing it will wreck your force. Failing a deliberate attack does a lot of damage as well but your forces will be operational in 3-4 days again.

[Canoerebel]

Tallyho, you've rained on my parade!  I knew Canton was an urban hex, but I thought Rangoon was too.  Looking at the map, I see that Canton is grey (urban), while Rangoon has hatch-marks around it (like Manila and Clark Field).  What do those hatch marks represent?
 
String, I'll follow your suggestion.  I should know pretty quickly whether I have a chance. 
 
In this game thus far, both John and I have tried massive attacks at key hexes that resulted in such incredible losses for the attacker that we both immediately gave up.  Me at Nanchang, and him at Sydney.

[Alfred]

Canoerebel,
 
Switch over to terrain mode, (IIRC press 1) - an urban hex will display as Lu (land urban) or Cu (coastal urban).
 
Alfred