Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post descriptions of your brilliant successes and unfortunate demises.

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Canoerebel
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Seige of Canton Fizzles

Post by Canoerebel »

3/11/43 to 3/17/43
 
China:  The Chinese army fully arrived at Canton and tried a probing deliberate attack on the 17th.  With 351,317/1075/0 against a puny 95,149/1010/7, I had hopes of overwhelming the badly outnumbered Japanese troops, even in their forts.  But the urban hex multiplier extinquished that hope.  The raw AV for the Chinese was 11,000 (!), but it was adjusted down to 5638.  The raw AV for the Japs was 1600, but it was adjusted up to 26,457.  The resutling 0:1, 9 forts, cost the Chinese 5771/265 to 1666/33.  Actually, the losses weren't that unreasonably - about 3.5 to 1, or about the same ratio as the total troop numbers.   Thank goodness (and thanks to String's advice) I didn't try a shock attack.  I've just about given up hope at Canton, though I'll give it one more crack to see if a well-rested Allied assault manages to do markedly better.  If not, I'll call off the attack. 
 
An imporant objective of the Seige of Canton was to create a hotspot that would worry John and draw his attention and resources.  If my siege isn't capable of doing that, my fall back plan is to pull back my troops and again threaten Hanoi.  I have no intention of attacking Hanoi, but while that threat was building I would resume air transport of some units to Burma.  In fact, on the assumption that Canton is rather hopeless, I've already resumed the air transport program, lifting a Chinese unit from the city on the Hanoi border to Meiktila (previously the closest base I could use was Lashio, so the ability to move the troops closer to the front lines will help some.
 
I'll probably try to move 3 to 5 more units into Burma.  Once the Burma Airlift finishes, the rest of the Canton troops (assuming I call off the siege) will mostly go to Wuchow and Changsha to make sure those cities aren't vulnerable.
 
Burma:  An Allied deliberate attack ont he 17th came off at 0:1, didn't touch forts (remaining at 6), and cost the Japs 2038/63/12 to 3594/65/22.  Right now, Allied raw AV is about 3600, and the Japs have about 1600.  I have another 1000 AV a hex to the north protecting against a river crossing from Moulmein.  I can move some of these troops to Rangoon as other troops arrive from Meiktila (including those coming from China in the Burma Airlift program).  But John continues to rule the air and has reinforcements on the way to Rangoon according to SigInt.
 
Australia:  Sparrow Force battallion moved north from Melbourne to probe Albury where it found several mixed brigades, so John still holds that base in force.  Both Port Kembla and Newcastle are still too strongly held to risk leaving Sydney to attack, but I still get the feeling that John is pulling out.  One large transport fleet moved NE, but whether it was heading to reinforce islands in Cen and SoPac, or part of an invasion of New Zealand, I don't know.
 
CenPac:  The Allies continue to move everything possible from the West Coast to Hawaii.  Another CVL arrived at Panama City (Providence) and is heading for Pearl.  The Allies aren't ready to try anything yet.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Seige of Canton Ends

Post by Canoerebel »

3/18/43 to 3/29/43
 
I have heard others refer to the middle months of 1942 as the summer doldrums, because there's usually a lull in the action - the Allies are still too weak to attack, the Japs begin to fear the growing strength of the Allies, and alot of CVs are in port upgrading.  In our game, we're experiencing the spring doldrums.  John has clearly entered the phase where he is focusing on his defenses.  One sign is the lack of offensive activity (although he could still have designs on New Zealand or India), his pulling back in Australia, and the fact that he is now taking the few remaining Allied controlled dots in the Pacific (Goodenough Island, etc.).

The doldrums were delayed because the Japs kept the offensive so long and penetrated so deeply, and because the loss of Allied CVs kept me from taking offensive action.  But the time has come for the Allies to move forward, though cautiously...ah, perish the caution!  Time is against me so I'll have to take some risks.  But not for awhile yet, so the doldrums may continue.

Burma:  British forces took Magwe (the third city recaptured by the Allies in the game to date, following Meiktila and Geelong).  Chinese expeditionary units just arrived at Taung Gyi and will bombard tomorrow to see how strong the defenses may be.  I don't think I have enough to threaten that city yet.  The seige of Rangoon continues.  The Allies don't seem to be making any progress toward taking the city and the Japs are reinforcing.  So the primary objective of keeping Jap attention focused here remains my main objective.

Australia:  2/3rds of the Sydney fighting units moved south a hex to Port Kembla and will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  John still has a small stack of defenders there, so I'm not quite sure what will happen.

CenPac:  I formed two CV TFs at Pearl (two of CVs, one of a CV and CVL) and sent them sprinting toward Midway where John has some ships in port.  However, my ships were sighted off French Frigate Shoals thus losing the element of surprise.  I'm pulling them back toward Pearl.  This was the first step in a plan to create the appearance of activity and threats here and there in CenPac, again meant to keep John on his toes.  My long-range plan is to side-step this area.

China: The Chinese gave up on accomplishing anything in Canton. After the failed deliberate attack of a week or so ago, part of a Jap division reinforced the city. I don't want to beat my head against the rock. Rather than using my reinforcements to replace combat losses at Canton, I'd rather have them available to reinforce the Chinese units in Burma. The stack of Chinese units will retreat to Wuchow. From there, I think I'll have the bulk of them prep for Hanoi, with no present intention of moving on that city. Then I'll send some of those units back to Changsha and move a stack to Lungchow to perhaps get John worried about Hanoi again.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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What's John Up To???

Post by Canoerebel »

3/30/43 to 4/3/43
 
Australia:  The Allied assault on Port Kembla wasn't very impressive.  It came off at 1:1, cost each side less than 2k casualties, and showed that John has two divisions (2nd, 20th) still posted there.  That suggest to me that the Japs aren't pulling out of SE Australia - not if John still has two divisions at a relatively minor outpost like this one.  I would assume he also strongly holds Newcastle and Adelaide.  I immediately pulled my troops back to Sydney.  I wanted to make sure John wasn't waiting for me to move on Port Kembla in order to advance some kind of huge army into Sydney.  Nothing of the like happened.  I'll rest my troops a week and may give it another crack (I had left several brigades behind in Sydney to garrison the post; I think I can get a 2:1 if I bring most of my infantry).
 
Burma:  In a recent email, John commented, "Looks like you are concentrating for a final push on Rangoon.  Good Luck..."  Well, I don't have any plans to make a final push on Rangoon.  He has too much stuff there.  I do intend to keep my army bombarding there for some time to come, but in the meantime I'm giving attention to the hex to the north in case John tries to advance across the river.  I'm also a little concerned about a behind-the-lines invasion of Akyab or possibly a hex further west.  I have infantry units in the main cities, but the most important defense is to make sure I have adequate base forces at key bases so that any Jap invasion can be met with the full might of Allied air in India.  I would welcome a major Jap effort in India now as it would fully occupy John in a place I don't think he can win (at this late date in the game; Allied air is simply too strong).
 
China:  I'm pulling back my troops from Canton, with units going to various posts including Lungchow so that John will have to contemplate the possibility of an invasion of Vietnam.
 
John:  He's posted a thread titled, "Would it be INSANE to do this in April 1943" of somesuch.  He may just be blowing smoke, but I think he's probably contemplating an invasion of New Zealand.  He can give me fits there too, but it would have the benefit of keeping him focused in an area far away from where I want to go.  The only other "insanity" I can think of would be an invasion of India, and I would welcome that even more.  As noted previously, the worst thing that could happen would be for John to focus on his defensive lines now.  I'm way, way behind now and the only way I can get back in this game is for John to make a mistake or overreach.  If he plays conservatively and focuses on defense I may never get untracked.  So, I hope John concludes his ideas aren't insane.
 
CenPac:  The Allies continue to reinforce the Hawaiin Islands.  Two more CVLs and an Essex Class CV Enterprise arrive at Panama City in two months.  It would then take these ships two weeks to get to Pearl.  I hate to wait that long before launching the Allied offensive, but I would much prefer having Enterprise present.  Right now, the Allies have 3 CVs, 2 CVLs, and 8 CVEs at Pearl Harbor.  That's nothing to sneeze at.  The CVs and CVLs all fly Hellcats now.  When the reinforcements arrive, that will mean a carrier force of 4 CVs, 4 CVLs, and 8 or 9 CVEs.  That's not enough to take on the full KB, which is why I hope John will consider further offensives that will prompt him to divides his carriers, as he so often does.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: What's John Up To???

Post by Q-Ball »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
When the reinforcements arrive, that will mean a carrier force of 4 CVs, 4 CVLs, and 8 or 9 CVEs.  That's not enough to take on the full KB, which is why I hope John will consider further offensives that will prompt him to divides his carriers, as he so often does.

IMHO, I think that's enough to take on KB, provided you don't fight where he has a large advantage in LBA. That force can put up a CAP of 175+ Hellcats while still leaving alot for Escort, and that's enough to shoot down TONS of IJN planes. Some might get through, but you have a parade of new CV's coming to quickly replace them, he doesn't.

I haven't been following KB losses, but if he hasn't lost anything, he could have accelerated to:

9 Fast CV's (about 600 A/C)--includes Taiho, Unryu, Amagi
2 Slow CV's (100)--Junyo, Hiyo
4 CVL's (about 140)--Ryujo, Ryuho, Zuiho, Shoho
5 CVE's (another 150)

That is a total of almost 1000 A/C. HUGE, but you have 600, and the Hellcat evens the equation.

Even if he wins, he can't take you on without HUGE losses, at least in Pilots. And Japan can't afford that.

I could be wrong however, I have never seen a battle that big. Maybe that's why I am pushing, I want to see what a 1600 A/C CV battle looks like! (probably carnage)
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RE: What's John Up To???

Post by ny59giants »

The big question is where your main thrust will be: North, Central, or South Pacific?? IMO, the South Pacific as I would want to get back NZ and OZ there potential bases while the North is the most direct route to Japan. You need to get the huge American LBA into action to wear him down.
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RE: What's John Up To???

Post by Canoerebel »

QBall and NYGiants:
 
Those are the things I'm mulling over right now.  It's April '43 and if I wait for those carriers I spoke of it won't be until summer before the Allies try to get moving.
 
As best I can tell, John seems to have a thick "outer crust."  At least Midway and Papete appear heavily garrisoned, and given our fight over Wotje, I think the Marshalls probably are too.  Ditto Wake and Marcus.
 
I know that John has a very heavy presence in Australia.  I sure don't want to get into a slug-it-out, slow-grind land war there.
 
What I really would like to do is penetrate his perimeter and, if possible, establish such a menacing presence in his interior that he's left out of position - badly needing all those ground troops way out there on the perimeter, but requiring time and alot of transports to reposition them.
 
So I'm fiddling with a number of ideas, but I can't commit yet because developments over the next two months could either enhance or diminish the payoffs for those targets.
 
The plan will require full use of my CVs, QBall, so in all probability there will be a major carrier battle.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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What am I up to?

Post by Canoerebel »

4/4/43 to 4/10/43
 
Fair questions, since it's nearing mid-1943 and I'm not doing much to get the Allies untracked.  Is patience a virtue or a vice?  We'll see.  John must be scratching his head, though, wondering what in the world I'm doing.  And I'm sure he's enjoying the absence of Allied offensive activity.
 
CenPac:  The Allies are moving everything possible from San Fran to various bases in Hawaii.  San Fran is nearly empty now.  I'm also considering several variations of my planned offensive; not quite pleased with anything.  I have plenty of time to think, though, since I'm awaiting those CV/CVL reinforcements that will be here in June.
 
Australia:  The Allied forces in Sydney are fully supplied and rested again, so I'll take another stab at Port Kembla.  This time all the infantry units are participating.  I don't have plans for any major offensive activity in Australia any time soon, but I want to make things as "busy" as possible.
 
Burma:  John has heavily reinforced Rangoon.  The Allies have too, but I don't believe the Allies can take this city.  Right now Allied AV is about twice that of the Japs (around 4500 to about 2300).  Outside the city, the Allies have 2000 AV across the river from Moulmein.  John has about 100k troops in Moulmein - I'm guessing at least two divisions strong.  I am concerned about a Jap counter-offensive here, or here and behind my lines, so I'm more defensively minded right now.
 
India:  I'm still keeping in the back of my mind John's "War Room" thread about some "insane" idea he is contemplating.  I really wonder if he has offensive plans in mind for India (if he does, I truly think it's an insane idea, but I have no right to question his strategic planning considering how he's doing in the game).  At first I figured he was thinking about New Zealand, but each day that passes seems to make that idea less likely.  I think he could've already moved on NZ if that was his objective.  In the meantime, he is actively reconning Ceylon and the eastern and northeastern bases in India.  Worried about this attention, I moved the Royal Navy CVs back to Bombay so that they aren't quite as exposed to a sneak attack.  My land defenses of India and Ceylon are weak, and in the short term the Japs could make some progress, but Allied airpower would be overwhelming in the long run (or so I believe, though it's an honest belief). 
 
China:  Okay, John has pulled divisions out of China to employ elsewhere, mainly Australia.  I've tried to major attacks here (Nanchang and lately Canton) employing overwhelming numbers of Chinese infantry against outnumbered but well-fortified Jap defenders.  The Japs easily repulsed each.  So John isn't feeling any heat in China.  I would like him to feel some heat, so that this theater too requires his attention and resources.  Therefore, I am once again thinking about an invasion of Vietnam, using the troops already fully-prepped for Hanoi (some 2000 AV mostly stationed at Lungchow) plus many more troops on the way to the area from Canton.  I don't have enough political points to transfer the HQ assignment for all the units I'd like to use, but I think I can put 4500 AV or so on the ground against Hanoi in short order, with more units in reserve and able to move forward as more PP become available.  I would really like this offensive to succeed so that I can take Hanoi (and possibly Haiphong too) and then move south in a move that would threaten the rear of John's army in Burma and Rangoon, but even if I get stymied and a standoff develops, at least it should draw John's full attention.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: What am I up to?

Post by USSAmerica »

Hi Dan, I'm reading both your and John's AARs, and have been quite entertained! [8D] 
 
Since I am reading both sides, I have been relatively quiet so I don't give anything away to either of you. 
 
As for your efforts in China, I don't think it's giving anything away to suggest to you that a lack of combat engineers has been a major weakness on your part.  Every large scale siege of a well fortified base that I have seen has been very ineffective until engineers can be brought in to reduce the forts.  Once the forts start dropping, things start to happen.  [;)]
 
Best of luck!  I'll be reading eagerly to see how the Allies get their revenge in this one!  [8D]
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RE: What am I up to?

Post by rtrapasso »

ORIGINAL: USS America

Hi Dan, I'm reading both your and John's AARs, and have been quite entertained! [8D]

Since I am reading both sides, I have been relatively quiet so I don't give anything away to either of you.

As for your efforts in China, I don't think it's giving anything away to suggest to you that a lack of combat engineers has been a major weakness on your part. Every large scale siege of a well fortified base that I have seen has been very ineffective until engineers can be brought in to reduce the forts. Once the forts start dropping, things start to happen. [;)]

Best of luck! I'll be reading eagerly to see how the Allies get their revenge in this one! [8D]
i don't think there are any Combat Engineer separate units for the Chinese (for CHS true... none on the "board" to start in CHS, nor any reinforcements)

There are engineer units in China, but these are all Base Force types... i guess you could bring some in from SE Asia if you have air transport or a couple of months and an open Burma road to march someone into the theater.
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Jap CVs Crusing North of Hawaii

Post by Canoerebel »

4/11/43 to 4/14/43
 
CenPac:  On the 12th, a merchant convoy heading from the West Coast to Hawaii reported a Jake scout plane.  This caused consternation among the vast number of convoys moving between the two areas.  The US CVs and CVLs sortied from Pearl and headed NE.  On the 14th, I reconfigured my fleets, putting Essex into it's own CV TF - there were then four CV TFs - two with a CV and CVL, one with just a CV, and one with just a CVL.  Each TF had a BB included in the escort mix.  Apparently, however, I failed to give the new Essex TF orders to follow the combat TF like the other CV TFs and she headed back to Pearl.  Yipes!  On the 15th, Jap CVs are spotted to the north.  I've ordered my CVs to head south four hexes, and for Essex to head back north and rendezvous with them.  The rendezvous point is within LRCAP range for P38s flying from Hilo and the adjacent base.  I've also formed the CVEs into two TFs and ordered them NE.  I would be surprised if John heads south toward Hawaii, but we'll see.   I'm willing to give battle here if I can get Essex lassoed and back with the pack.

Is this CV raid the "insane idea" of which John wrote of in his War Room thread?  If so, I'm disappointed.  I really was hoping John would take a big chance with his army to invade NZ or India.  I don't want him focusing on defense, but that may be exactly what he's doing.  Besides, a carrier sweep well north of Hawaii isn't sufficiently crazy to warrant a plea of insanity.

Australia:  The Sydney defenders tried another deliberate attack at Port Kembla, but it came off at 0:1 and cost the Allies 3k casualties to just 500 for the Japs.  I've scrapped that mission and ordered my troops back home. 

Burma:  The Allies take Tyaung Gai on April 15th, the fourth city reclaimed in the war to date (following Meiktila, Geelong, and Magwe).  The three Chinese units involved wiill follow the Jap defenders into Thailand.  The Indian division will head south toward Rangoon.

India:  Japs continue to recon the east coast and Ceylon and I'm crossing my fingers and hoping John really sends an invasion force this way.  I think such a move would warrant a plea of insanity, and at this point I'd prefer an insane opponent over one who is cautious.

China:  Chinese troops late from the Canton expedition are arriving at various bases - primarily Lungchow and Changsha.  John has a unit that used one of those "yellow, slow-going, backwoods" roads to get behind Changsha, but it's not going to accomplish anything other than to get surrounded.  I'm still thinking about moving on Hanoi or Haiphong.  Haven't decided yet.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Jap CVs Crusing North of Hawaii

Post by Redd »

WOW, very good reading so far. I'd been following Johns AAR for a while now but somehow hadn't been following yours and I've lateley rectified that situation. As I've read most of John's AAR I don't want to comment on specifics, but I think that I can help you a little on technique(sp) when it comes to land combat. First of all ya gotta spread out. You can't brute force an urban hex; you gotta grab it and surround it. Cut off supply and those guy's er dead. Land movement rules are brutal in this game. If youre in a contested hex you can't move out of it if it's marked as enemy controled in the destination hex. send in enough to each city to hold it(the urban bonus works both ways) and then take the units you have left,divide them , and then spam them into the clear hexes in between the roads.Work them around and close the roads. Put an "a" in every hex you can. Done right you can 'grab' his army and hold it tight while starving them out. Hope this helps [:)][;)]
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RE: Jap CVs Crusing North of Hawaii

Post by Big B »

Canoerebel, you have done well to keep your head and stay in the game against a very experienced, competent, (and aggressive) opponent.[;)]

I see you have re-equipped with P-38's and F6F's. Be as patient as the situation allows, and await the late summer and your major 1943 CV reinforcements.

A Full House of Essex's and Independence's equipped with Hellcat's will give you what you need to reverse the situation at sea.

If the situation allows, DON'T do anything rash until Fall '43. If you can at all afford to - wait. By the fall, you will not only have many good CV's and CVL's, but you will start getting swamped in B-24's AND more, excellent, longer range fighter planes. That combo can change the front line situation overnight.

Easier said than done I know - and you have done very well to date - so your instincts have proven pretty sound.

Hang in there and when the time is right - make him bleed (don't worry about being on the wrong end of the pilot pool in a battle of attrition...you have nothing to fear there).[;)]

B
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RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post by Powloon »

Hi Canoerebel, Just caught up great read and congratulations on hanging on in there!

I was wondering if you had built up the bases on French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island? If not it might give you an avenue of attack (and training) for your LBA on Midway (which he is operating at the end of a long supply line whilst you have a major base near by) and help provide cover for CV operations in the area. At the very least will provide some search cover in an area where he can move his CVs in and out of at will.

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RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post by Canoerebel »

4/15/43 to 4/20/43
 
Gents, thanks for the comments, encouragement, and suggestions.  I've noted how careful readers are not to give away any "intel" from reading my opponent's AAR, which is commendable and much appreciated.  Here's the situation:

CenPac:  The big CV battle north of Hawaii didn't happen.  John moved his CVs west back to Midway, carefully avoiding moving within range of LRCAP or LB bombers from Hawaii.  The Allied CVs also moved west, but while remaining within LRCAP of Hawaii and French Frigate Shoals.  My CVs are still out there, but will return home soon.  (The Allies have fully built up French Frigate, and have just begun work on Laysan Island).

Australia/NZ:  Standoff in Australia continues; no sign of Japs moving on NZ.

Burma:  The Japs now have 30 units about 120k strong at Rangoon, and another sizeable force 100k in Moulmein.  But I don't think the Japs can successfully move against the Allied force beseiging Rangoon, nor the force in the hex to the rear.  I suspect John is considering a move by sea around my flank and against my rear, but we'll see.  For the foreseeable future, I'm content with a seige at Rangoon drawing in all available forces.  Once the Allies take control of the air - autumn '43 should be about right - I can try to change that.

China:  Allied troops gathering at Lungchow on the Vietnam border, a situation John will not have missed.  I'm not ready to invade Vietnam yet.  I'm letting political points build until I can transfer perhaps three more large units to Southeast Asia, and then I will make the decision.

Allied Plans:  I think John believes a move by the Allies is imminent, which suits me since nothing will happen for several months yet.  So as the tension builds, perhaps he will make a mistake (his recent CV cruise north of Pearl Harbor is the kind of move that could potentially lead to disaster, and that's the kind of thing I'm hoping for while I'm gathering and planning while waiting for Allied carrier strength to build).

The Allies have been mulling ove a variety of plans for the "breakout offensive" that will occur later this year.  This attack will have to be massive and create major problems for the Japs, since it will be happening so late in the game and with the Allies so far behind schedule.  If it isn't massive and successful, it would likely be the end of the game.

Given Jap carrier power, the attack needs to occur at a location where John doesn't have vast amounts of LBA available.  That means the attack has to take place either at a remote locale or someplace unexpected where the Allies can seize an airfield or two and transfer in some fighters for CAP before the Japs can fully react.

At this point the Allies are leaning towards two plans:

(1)  Operation Red Planet:  A two-stage attack, the first to take Marcus Island (currently just a level 2 airfield) to give the Allies a support base; followed by a major invasion of the Philippines.  The latter target is based on the assumption that it would catch John totally by surprise, that it would be lightly garrisoned, and that the Allies could bring enough troops, supplies, ships, and aircraft to create a self-supporting colony the could handle both defense and offense (against Japanese shipping in the South China Sea) and withstand the Japanese counterattack.  The selection of optimum pre-invasion targets would be possible by using the Allied base at Iloilo.  The Japs still haven't taken this hex (John used is as bombing practice) and it has a small base force and infantry unit.  Prior to the invasion, the Allies would transfer in recon aicraft from China/Burma/India and scout Manila, Aparri, Davao, etc.  Once the invasion occurred, the Allies could transfer aircraft into newly seized bases from the CBI theater.  It may also be possible to air transport Chinese units into some of the bases in NW Luzon (I'm not sure they are in range, but I'll check).  If this operation were successful, it would essentially put the Allies back on schedule and leave John with the massive logistical hurdle of retrieving his units from far-forward bases (Society Islands, New Caledonia, Australia, etc) that were no longer very relevant to the game.  This plan depends greatly on the availability of Iloilo.  If John takes it in the next 30 to 45 days, it would decrease the likelihood of choosing this plan.

(2)  Operation Blue Planet:  A massive invasion of the nothern-most Japanese Home Island - the one with Sopporro.  John has held the Aleutian chain since early in the game and I've done absolutely nothing up there, so I hope there's a chance that John would not consider that northern island a likely target.  If by a sudden, surprise invasion the Allies could seize most or all of the island, establsih the airbases, and ward off any counterattack, it would give the Allies the base they need within air range to commence bombing the HI in '44.  Once the Allies had secured this island, they could then focus on retaking the Aleutians.  I started seriously contemplating this operation two days ago, and yesterday John posts a thread titled something like "Situation on My Northern Perimeter."  So clearly he's not totally ignoring this possibility.  This opeation would become more likely if the Japs re-take Iloilo or if there are other indications an Allied move on the Philippines was contemplated by the Japs.

(3)  If neither of these plans looks feasible, I don't know what the fallback would be.  The Allies won't have time to pussyfoot around, starting from scratch to attack the outer perimeter of Jap-held islands.  I've got to begin somewhere inside that perimeter, both to get closer to the heart of Jap territory and to make the spread-out, far-flung nature of the Jap empire work against them from a logistical standpoint.

Edit: Okay, I'm glad the forums don't allow vulgarities, but in my neck of the woods "puss_foot" around isn't a vulgarity.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post by Q-Ball »

Wow, you can't be accused of not thinking BIG there! How close do you think you could get to Hokkaido before John sees your fleet? If he holds part of the Aleutians, I would think he could get a pretty long early warning system. If you want to force a decisive naval battle, that would be a good way to do it!

Seizing Marcus would help both objectives, so maybe that should be your target. You are right I think that invading Pago Pago or something like that wouldn't be productive; you would just be compressing his defenses inward. If you press elsewhere, it's a safe bet he would withdraw almost everyone from down there, so if you wanted the points and supply line, should be easy to take at that point.
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RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post by Canoerebel »

Okay, so it's Hokkaido (thanks Q-Ball).  The invasion fleet would approach from Pearl Harbor, so I think it could get relatively close before being sighted by Jap recon.  The main thing is that it's far enough out on the periphery that John's CVs shouldn't be able to immediately intervene.  (I know I have to face either Jap LBA or Jap carrier-based air, I just don't want to face both at the same time; I'm assuming that John will base most of his CVs in a central position (Midway, or perhaps Kwajalein) so that he would be in the best postion to react to an attack on either extreme (north, or an Allied invasion of Society Islands, or attempt to reinforce Australia).  I haven't looked yet at what defensive forces Hokkaido begins with, and what reinforcements it gets.  But the Allies would invade with at least 4 to 6 divisions and a heck of alot of support troops.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post by Q-Ball »

I think it's a big gamble, but you're behind, so maybe a worthwhile gambit. I think it's a good idea. A BOLD idea, but good one. I wonder what others think.

KB at full-steam can probably motor to the HI within 10 days from most places on the map. That means with your transports, you need to be able to get within 20 hexes without being seen. Can you do that? You have to look at the map and figure out how to vector in via open ocean. If you can't, you're taking a huge risk. Also, you will likely face the CV air anyway, if John pulls them off the CV's and moves them there, which I would do if someone was invading the HI! EVERY plane would be greeting you there!

You better bring alot of engineers and planes, because the whole IJA is going to be landing on Hokkaido within 30 days of invasion. 4-6 divisions seems a bit short to me. You need every Corsair you own, plus lots and lots of strike aircraft.

I totally want to see you try this! It is a big risk.

The only other direct approach would be Sumatra. Pretty tough to land there though without more CV support. Though, if you are going for Hokkaido, plan a simultaneous landing on Sumatra, like Sabang or Padang, or something. It's a safe bet if you are landing on Hokkaido, you will NOT encounter any air units opposing you, so even if Hokkaido fails, you get a foothold in the DEI.
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RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post by Canoerebel »

I think I gave the impression that I had selected Operation Planet Blue when I said, "Okay, so iit's Hokkaido.  Thanks Q-Ball."  Instead, I was just simply acknowledging the name of the island as Hokkaido, something I had left unclear in previous posts.  My preference remains Operation Planet Red (the invasion of the Philippines), with Planet Blue my second choice.  Alot will happen between now and June or July or August, the point where I'm actually ready to move, so there will be constant re-evaluations, misgivings, optimism, pessimism, etc.
 
I usually try to cobble together two invasions, so that the second can move in the vacuum created by the first, much as you suggest Q-Ball.  But invading Sumatra will be very difficult as nearly the entire British Empire army is tied up in Rangoon and the hex to the north, with no substantial reinforcements on the way in the next 4 months.  I'll have to give this some thought.  A major factor will be whether the Chinese invade Vietnam and, if so, whether they make good progress.  If the answer on either count is "no," then I'd be more likely to air transport more Chinese units into Burma, which could free up British and Indian units.  If the Chinese were successful in Vietnam, however, they would probably move south toward Saigon or into the interior, threatening the flank of the Japanese army in Burma.
 
Lots to think over while I await US CVs.  The US gets alot of them in the next four months, then there's a lull for another month or two.  By then the US would have the old Sara and York, the new Enterprise and Lexington, and Essex, Intrepid, and I think Bunker Hill.  That would give the Allies 7 fleet CVs, a handful of CVLs, and a host of CVEs.  Equipped with Hellcats, it would be tough for even massed Jap air strikes (carrier, LBA, or both) to gain a victory (judging by the performance of Hellcats in my game with Miller, which is also this mod).  There would be some risk, but I would feel pretty confident in the success of the venture as long as I didn't pick a target where the Japs would have the advantage on the ground.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

Post by Q-Ball »

Got it, and apologize for clogging your excellent AAR with long posts.

On second thought, I think invading Hokkaido might be a little crazy with anything less than 10 divisions. Unless he has spent the PP's to move it, there is a good chance at least 1 large IJA division, the 7th, is in Sapporo with 9 forts; a tough nut to crack quickly. You definitely need to capture Wakkanai and Sapporo quick to negate his ability to reinforce the place. Interesting idea though.

Looking forward to the offensive!
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Dumb Allied Player Part II

Post by Canoerebel »

Things have been quiet all over as the Allies sit tight in Hawaii, Australia, Burma, and China.  I still think this quietness serves a purpose, as I think John is expecting something big and the longer the quiet lasts the more his unease could build.
 
I mentioned a few posts ago that John had sent a unit behind the Chinese front lines, using one of those yellow-brick roads that take forever to travel.  I figured this was a fairly small unit probing my defenses.  I was worried that it might take an ungarrisoned city, so I air transported an infantry unit into the likely candidate, and then sent five other units after it.  That Jap unit finally arrived at Kwieyang (spelling?) SE of Chungking.  A bombardment attack revealed that it is a full division.  I think John's plan was to take that ungarrisioned city (just east of Kwieyang) and then air-transport in reinforcements.  It took me a long time to figure that out.  But if that was the plan, it won't work.  Both cities are adequately garrisoned and five other units are closing in.  I may have a nice chance to wipe out a Jap division in China, and John's army there is already below normal strength since he moved so many Jap units out of China to the Pacific.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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