Rebels (Canoerebel) vs. Redcoats (Miller) - Big B 192

[ny59giants]

Where are your CVE with the large replacement squadrons to refill your CV/CVLs??
 
Can you have all your TFs head for your new base, then have your CV TF quickly dock and see if there is enough supply there to allow them to take on replacement a/c?? I would have all your CV & SC TF put at sea and then with "patrol/do not retire" set. Have your AP/AK/LCT continue to unload with them docked and allow your fighters at the base to fly CAP over them.

[Canoerebel]

My carriers and combat ships can rearm and replace at Legaspi, but that would be about a two day trip and would take them out of the theater of operations.  I wouldn't want to leave my transports behind at the invasion hex, because Miller has a ton of combat ships in the area, including most of his BBs (including, in turn, Yamato, which recon sighted).
 
So that's why I've left the invasion hex for a turn, to make sure I'm not overwhelmed.  I'll be back tomorrow or the next day, or possibly I'll shift the landing beach to Aparri.
 
Many of the CVEs are part of the invasion fleet, but I haven't lost enough aircraft on my CVs and CVLs to replace them with whole squadrons.

[ny59giants]

I haven't gotten far enough, but the CVEs with the large replacement squadrons on them should be able to send planes by you going to CV/CVLs and checking if they can accept replacements for your squadrons. I think your CVEs need to be in a replenshment TF for it to work. They just have to be within transfer range and of course have the same plane types (Hellcats on both, for example). Thus, you can keep these CVEs farther south and not have to worry about them getting attacked.
 
You may have to ask other players to make sure.

[Q-Ball]

That was smart, landing south of Appari, instead of right on it. You are right, that was probably the guessed target, and an IJN Surface force probably swept the hex during the night. I might have sent a DD there just to check that notion (you have plenty, what the heck!).

[vettim89]

Canoerebel, great AAR. I have been playing particular close attention here as I just started a Big Bob Scenario 192 against Greasylake as the Allies. I was just wondering how much you would attribute you success in this game to the Mod? Don't get me wrong, you have played brilliantly, but your opponent was unable to run over you in the first 6 months of the war as I have seen others do. So apart from your great play, some good luck, and perhaps some poor choices by the nasty Redcoats, do you think the mod helped you achieve at least a little better results?

[Canoerebel]

12/18/43 and 12/19/43
 
The Allied and Jap CVs clashed in Leyte Gulf, with the Allies emerging victorious.
 
The main action happened on the 18th, with surface combat clashes and a carrier battle.  The surface combat action involved five rounds:
 
Round 1:  BBs Kongo, Haruna, Hiei and 7 DDs v. BB Oklahoma, 2 CA, 2 CL, 10 DD, 1 DMS.  No ships take critical damage, but those set "afire" are Oklahoma, CA Wichita, a DD, and 3 Jap DDs.  This round for the Japs.
 
Round 2:  CL Tatsuta and 7 DDs vs. the Oklahoma TF:  3 Jap DDs set afire, Wichita takes a TT, an Allied DD set afire.  This round for the Japs.
 
Round 3:  CL Kuma and 6 DDs vs. BB Massachusetts, 2 CA, 2 CL, CLAA, 6 DD, DE, DMS.  Two Jap DDs heavily damaged.  This round, mostly a non-event, for the Allies.
 
Round 4:  Repeat of Round 3.  This time four Jap DDs are left ablaze with no damage to the Allies.  This round for the Allies.
 
Round 5:  Kongo and Friends vs. Massachusetts and friends.  Six Jap DDs take heavy damage while one Allied DD suffers.  This round for the Allies.
 
Considering the number of BBs the Japs had, and the number of BBs and CAs on the Allied side, damage was pretty light.  Oklahoma and Wichita take moderate damage but will fight again.  What difference would it have made had the Japs had all those CAs damaged a day ago?
 
Carrier Clash:  Both sides trade carrier-strike attacks, but again the bloodshed isn't on a massive scale, although the Allies are the decided victors.  A massive Allied strike puts multiple TTs into CVs Hiyo and Junyo and CS Nishin, all of which go down.  Another strike scores bomb hits against CVEs Taiyo, Hosho, and Unyo (the first two "on fire").  A few other miscellaneous strikes, mostly against DDs, with BBs Haruna and Hyuga also taking single TT hits.  The Japs put up everything and score essentially nothing, a single bomb hit on CV Formidable the only exception.  The biggest Jap strike consists of 248 Zeks, 13 Vals, 91 Kates, 16 Jills, and a few others.  This strike gets eaten alive, but the Allied CVs lose a sobering 84 Hellcats.
 
Aircraft Losses:  On the day, the Japs lose 770 aircraft (705 a2a; 22 on the field; 35 flak; 8 ops) to 180 for the Allies (152 a2a; 0 field; 17 flak; 11 ops).
 
Day Two:  The Allied fleets move to the recently seized base on Luzon (Tugeugarao), where LBA can provide some CAP to compensate for all the carrier-based Hellcats lost.  Bloodied badly, the Jap ships pull back.  There are a few more carrier strikes against stragglers here and there, but nothing major.  While the Allied invasion fleet resumes unloading, some Jap strikes from Formosa arrive, but with dismal results.  On the day, the Japs lose 109 aircraft (107 a2a) and the Allies lose 8.
 
Analysis:  The Invasion of Northern Luzon and the Battle of Leyte Gulf has thus far been a decisive Allied victory.  The only thing of signficance the Allies have lost is fighters, and those should be replaced soon.  The Japs have lost two CVs, a CS, possibly two CVEs, a host of CAs and CLs, and well over a thousand aircraft.  Too, the Allies beachhead is secure and the Allies are fanning out to the south (taking Baguio on the 19th) and north (should take Aparri in two days).  The Allies should be able to consolidate and reinforce the invasion and establish large airbases in Northern Luzon.  I think this effectively severs the Japanese sea lanes to Malaya, Indochina, Java, Burma, and Borneo.  That, in turn, should be a decisive blow to whatever hopes Miller had left.
 
Southern Luzon:  The Allied force from Naga and Legaspi launched a deliberate attack against the Japanese units a hex south of Manila and drove them back into that fortress.  3rd Marine Division is unloading at Naga and will join this force (which has an AV of 1400) shortly.  More troops are heading this way from Davao, Cebu, and on ships arriving from further south.
 
The Future:  It will take some time to build up Allied bases on Luzon and to defeat the Japanese forces there (which may total 100k troops), but it's just a matter of time.  While this is going on, the Allies will identify the next targets and begin preparation.  I think Palau (and/or nearby islands like Yap) are likely targets in the short term.  Long term plans will consider Formosa, Okinawa, Iwo Jima (or possibly Marcus), and possibly the China or Vietnam coast (Haiphong being the favorite target).

[anarchyintheuk]

Scattershooting:

BB v BB tend to be pretty mild affairs.

707ac is pretty amazing for a2a for one day.

How are your pilot replacement pools doing?

Enjoying the aar.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Canoerebel, great AAR. I have been playing particular close attention here as I just started a Big Bob Scenario 192 against Greasylake as the Allies. I was just wondering how much you would attribute you success in this game to the Mod? Don't get me wrong, you have played brilliantly, but your opponent was unable to run over you in the first 6 months of the war as I have seen others do. So apart from your great play, some good luck, and perhaps some poor choices by the nasty Redcoats, do you think the mod helped you achieve at least a little better results?

Vettim, I don't think the mod itself has been the determining factor. I'm playing the same mod against John III and getting my rear end kicked as the Allies.

The reason for the Allied success in this game? (1) My good opponent Miller was new to the Jap side; he is a very cautious player, and that's probably not good for the Japs early on; (2) The US didn't lose any CVs early in the war, giving the Allies the capability to mount very strong offensives in early '43; and (3) I think Miller guessed wrongly where the main Allied push would come; as a result Timor and other major islands (the Celebes for instance) where vulernable and the Allies took them early in '43. From there Allied LBA was able to play a major roll in the game.

So what's the difference between this game and the Allied debacle in my game with John III? (1) My good opponent there is a very, very, very experienced Jap player. Combine his experience with his confidence and throw in a bold plan of attack and the Allies were on their heals from the start; and (2) The U.S. lost CVs early, eliminating the "force in being" threat that would have kept the Japs more honest, and also preventing the Allies from having the capability to mount a strong offensive in early '43.

I believe the single most important factor in the difference between the games is US CVs. If the Allies protect them and don't lose any, they will be in a strong, strong position by late' 42. Take losses, especially one sided losses, and the Allies are hurting.

Moral of the story? Don't lose any US CVs.

[Q-Ball]

Why bother with Palau? Taking it wouldn't shorten your supply lines, and you are probably better off grinding out Manila if you want a forward base. Once you secure Manila, that should be the center of your operations; as a non-malaria hex, easy to have troops there.

You are doing much better than my Big-B game, though I am IJN and doing better than Miller. We're into 5-43, and he has taken the Gilberts, with a foothold in the Marshalls. I have historical conquests plus N. Australia. He is down 5 US CV's and 1 RN CV, and over 20 cruisers, I have lost 3 CV and 2CA. Yet, I am definitely going to lose, no question about that, and not looking forward to UBER CAPs! It's really tough to challenge Allied air and not get pilots killed.

[Canoerebel]

My main objective will be Luzon.  As that nears completion, one of my objectives will be to open a sea lane between Luzon and Midway so that supplies and fuel from the US can take a more direct route to the front (I've been stockpiling both at Midway for quite some time).  With the Jap CVs and pilots taking high losses, that should seriously reduce the risk to transport convoys for awhile, but I'd also like to take a few islands close to that sea lane both for the LBA coverage and to provide "ports in a storm."  I don't need them all - a few should do.  Right now Palau and Yap look pretty easy.  I don't know about Saipan, Iwo, and some of the others.
 
I think Miller strongly holds some islands and bases very far in my rear - Rabaul, Johnston (recon not long ago showed 15th Division there, but whether it's the entire unit or a fragment I don't know), Truk, and probably Kwajalein and Marcus.  Right now, I doubt I'll ever bother going after most of those places.  So I want to create a fairly safe passage closer to the "front lines."

[ny59giants]

Dan,
I agree about losing CVs early for the Allies. I lost 2 in 2/42 around Suva. We are playing 2 day turns (CHS 158c Nik Mod), so it is easier to have CVs appear from "out of the mist." [:(]  I'm in 3/43 and have a few plans slowly going forward. By 7/43, I'll have those 2 CVs back as Essex class along with the Hellcats coming on line (230/month). Then, I have plans to shift things into a higher gear. [:D]
 
KUDOS on your victory!!  [&o][&o]

[vettim89]

I guess it is safe to say if the Allied Player doesn't get lucky early in 1942, it is a long road back

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

I guess it is safe to say if the Allied Player doesn't get lucky early in 1942, it is a long road back

Vettim, I don't think it's that. The key is that the Allies must be very careful with CVs until at least late '42. A very experienced Allied player will know when he can take a calculated risk with his CVs to keep the Jap player honest, or to sting him; a newbie or less experienced Allied player would probably be better parking his CVs in San Francisco until late '42 or '43 so that he won't be tempted to lose them. And they aren't useless there either (assuming the Jap player doesn't know that they are there). Parked there (or even at Panama City) they constitute a "force in being" and then then Jap player has to wonder about their whereabouts, and take into consideration the possibility that they might show up, anywhere and everywhere. That's good medicine.

[Canoerebel]

12/20/43 to 12/23/43
 
Philippines:  Both sides are landing - or trying to land reinforcements and get troops in position for the upcoming battles.  Over this period, the 4th Marine Raiders moved north and took Aparri.  Vigan, an empty hex, changed sides to the Allies, and most of the Allied forces at Tuegeraroa are moving south to Baguio, where the Allied AV is currently 750.  As soon as all these troops are in place, they will move west or south, depending on opportunities.  A large number of Jap transports arrived at Lingayen and began unloading 64th Division.  The Allied CVs moved north from Legaspi and struck on the 23rd, the Japs losing 2 MSW, 4 PG, and a heck of alot of AKs and APs (probably more than 20).  I think whatever Miller lands here is already cut off from Manila, Clark and Bataan since the Allies are at Baguio in force, but it will hamper the Allied ability to move south on Clark if they have to watch the rear.

Further south, the Allied army that landed at Naga and Legaspi is gathering a hex south of Manila.  This group now includes 3rd Marine Division.  These units will move north on Manila within the week. 

More reinforcements are consantly moving from Davao, Cebu, or points south for Northern Luzon.

Far to the east at Midway, the Allies are gathering large supply and fuel convoys that will eventually move west toward Legaspi or Davao.  These TFs will be protected by CVL San Jacinto and four CVEs.  If necessary, some of the main Allied CVs in the Philippines could move east to assist in the crossing of hostile territory.

San Jose airbase is now level 3, as is Tuergarao, Naga, and Legaspi. The Allies are also working to build Iloilo, currently a level 3, but don't yet have a base force there.

Burma: The Allies tried another deliberate attack on the 23rd, with results nearly identical to the attack of the 17th. Adjusted AV was 3066 (Allies) to 2264. The 1:1 dropped forts to 7 and cost the Japs 2020/64/1 to 7646/182/3. This is gonna take awhile.

Score: The Jap lead is under 3,000 now and should disappear entirely over the coming weeks as Luzon has bases worth alot to the Allies.

[John 3rd]

Hey Dan.
 
I don't jump into this AAR often because I feel like I am 'peeking' into your thinking and planning; however, I have got to say it looks like you have this one sown up.  I would cry over 700 planes lost for ONE lousy bomb hit on a BRIT CV!  Very depressing...
 
How is Miller's mood?  Does he plan to go the distance?
 

[Canoerebel]

Miller's really a good sport.  He went the distance in our long, long UV game, all the way until 12/31/43, and has taken this game until nearly Christmas '43 with no apparent intention of conceding.  Every once in awhile he'll express some frustration, irritation, or sense of gloom about the Jap position, but mostly he just soldiers on doing his best to blunt the Allied offensives.  Things have reached the critical stage now; he knows Luzon is absolutely crucial, so he's understandably taking long chances to protect the island.  It can't be fun being at the mercy of the Allied airforce, so I wouldn't blame him a bit if he conceded, but he's a stubborn cuss.
 
 
 
 

[Canoerebel]

12/24/43 to 12/28/43
 
Luzon:  A large part of the Allied army has arrived at Manila and began bombarding on the 28th.  The Japanese garrison consists of 65th Brigade, 2/3rds of 48th Divison, two tank regiments, and a few other small units.  Their raw AV is 908 - not massive, but with the urban hex multiplier no pushover either.  A few Allied units are still on the way to the hex.  When they arrive, the Allied AV will be about 3,000.  I intend to try a deliberate attack before year's end to get a feel for the strength of the defense.  I'm assuming the Japs are well-supplied and have 9 forts, but we'll see.
 
On the other side of Manila, the Allies have 1200 AV at Baguio, 4th Marine Raiders at Laoag, 1st Aussie Division at Aparri, and a number of troops at the main invasion port, Tuegegarao, which is now a level 4 airfield.  A small naval base force just landed at Tuegagarao and is moving to Aparri. 
 
Some of these northern troops will move on San Fernando to see if that can be taken from the Japs.  At least part of the Jap 64th Division is there.
 
Allied CVs:  The main CV force is currently docked at Legaspi.  CV Franklin and CVE Corregidor are moving there from Davao.  When they arrive, I'll reconfigure the CV TFs.  Any carriers with high SYS (say 8 or above) will be sent back to Darwin.  I think the Brit CVs and some US CVEs will remain in the Luzon area.  Some or perhaps all of the other CVs and CVLs may move east (this may be several weeks off) to meet the reinforcement/supply convoys that will sail west from Midway.
 
Burma:  Another Allied deliberate attack at Rangoon; nearly same results.  Six forts, 0:1, Allies lose 7478/93/40 to 2392/84/1. 
 
China:  Miller has reinforced the troops besieging Lungchow (north of Hanoi). They tried a 0:1 deliberate attack (just one point away from a 1:1), didn't touch 9 forts, and lost 2782/90 to 357.  Chinese reinforcements are on the way, but its a depleated unit with an AV of something like 42.  Over near Nanchang, Miller tried another deliberate attack against the cut-off Chinese stack.  This was a 1:1 costing the Japs more than 14k casualties to less than 3k for the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

12/29/43 to 1/3/43
 
Manila:  The Allies launched a deliberate attack on the 30th against Manila.  Forts are 8 and the adjusted AVs were 2699 (Allies) to 7225.  The 0:1 cost the Allies 2667/46/11 to 1200/49/13.  The Japs have a Mixed Brigade and 2/3rds of a division there.  I don't detect any Jap reinforcements since then.  Allied aircraft are bombing each turn, and the ground troops are bombarding until it's time to try another attack in a few days.  Reinforcements are heading that way.

Northern Luzon:  The Allies now have the northern half of the island.  1st Aussie Division is moving on San Fernando (recon shows it's held by one unit 5k strong) and most of the Baguio troops are moving west to Lingayen.  A bombardment attack there on the 3rd showed the Japs with part of 64th Division and an NLF with a combined AV of 211.  The Allies are a little out on a limb here - I can't leave Baguio unguarded while attacking Lingayen, because Miller has some 40k troops at Clark Field that could advance.  Lots of base force and support units have landed or are on the way to the bases on the north side of Luzon.  Even though it will take awhile to vanquish the Jap troops at Manila and vicinity, the Allies will soon have big airbases at Aparri, Loaog, etc.

Southern Luzon:  The Allied CVs are docked at Legaspi.  Right now, the major Allied bases in the western Pacific are Amboina and Davao.  Eventually - within a month or so - either Iloilo or Legaspi will became a major base.

Middle and Southern PI:  The Allies have big airbases now all over this region including San Jose, Puerto Princessa, Jolo, Cebu, Dadjangas, and Davao.

Burma:  An Alllied deliberate attack at Rangoon on the 2nd came off at 2:1 and dropped forts to 5, but the casualties were worse than with the 1:1s.  The Allies lost 8205/129/28 to 1380/44.  With the Allies owning the air over Rangoon, however, it looks like the fortress is cracking.

Java:  A big Allied supply convoy routed from Aden to Darwin took a weird turn and got to close to Java and Jap LBA and carrier-based bombers blew it out of the water.  I lost perhaps 15 transports.  But what are his CVs doing way down there?  With the Allies about to put a choke hold on the narrow sea channel between Luzon and China, any Jap ships south of that channel may get marooned, or else have to fight there way through to Japan.

Kamikazes:  No sign of them yet, but Miller can use them now.

[Canoerebel]

1/4/44 to 1/10/44
 
Manila:  Allied deliberate attack on the 6th comes off at 0:1, forts drop to 7, and adjusted AVs are 3251 (Allies) to 3441.  The Allies lose 2142/61/17 to 1691/32/15.  Since then the Allies have bombarded each day while awaiting reinforcements moving up from Naga, including 18th UK Division, 1st US Marine Division, and an Army RCT.  Next attack in a few days.
 
Northern Luzon:  The Allies take Lingayen on the 8th after a 3:1 attack expels the defenders, who retreat to San Fernando.  This creates an isolated pocket of Jap troops at San Fernando, and Allied units including 1st Aussie Division are already there.  That hex should be taken within the week.  Allied reinforcements are constantly landing at Aparri, which is about to become a level 4 airbase.  Aparri has a regimental base force; a 30 base force is moving to Laoag, and a 90 base force will move to San Fernando or Lingayen.
 
Middle Philippines:  The Allies take Taytay on the 9th.
 
South China Sea:  On the 8th, patrols sight two large transport convoys in the South China Sea; worried that they could be carrying reinforcements to Luzon, the Allies send most of the US CVs and CVLs into the Sea through the passages south of Luzon.  The Jap convoys scatter, one heading south and the other breaking for Hong Kong.  The CVs move north to a point 180 miles SE of Hong Kong.  On the 10th, the Allied carrier-based aircraft fly morning and evening missions against the ships at Hong Kong.  The A.M. mission scores multiple hits on 9 TKs, 4 PG, and 3 PC.  The P.M. mission has similar results.  How hard will it be for the Japs to endure if it isn't safe to bring convoys from the SRA (or those CVs recently employed south of Java) back to the Home Islands?
 
Burma:  1:1 deliberate attack at Rangoon on the 6th has forts 4 and costs the Allies 6260/104/32 to 2331/52/2.  Another try on the 10th comes in at 0:1, forts untouched, and the Allies lose 3744/103/22 to 1864/52.  Miller snuck in strike aircraft to Moulmein and they flew an effective mission against Allied LBA at Akyab, destroying 50 aircraft on the ground despite the P38 cap.  The Japs also brought in a supply convoy to Rangoon.  Allied LBA sortied over two days and damaged or sank at least a dozen ships.
 
China:  Miller is making a concerted effort to take Lungchow, near the Vietnam border, but thus far each attack has been a 0:1 costing the Japs better than 2k casualties to less than 300 for the Chinese.
 
CenPac:  The big supply/fuel/reinforcement convoy at Midway has sailed to the WNW and will soon turn to make the run between Marcus and Iwo Jima for the Philippines.  CAP provided by 3 CVE and a CVL.

[saj42]

Just read the last 5 pages of this AAR.
When I saw you were going for Mindanao rather than reinforcing Java I thought it would be a costly mistake/failure. OK so it was costly at first (the 2 CV battles), but it's turned into a resounding success, thankfully.

Great game and AAR - I hope Miller keeps going