An interesting situation has developed in one of my PBEMs (CHS 155). It is November 1942. The Japanese 15th Army or a great deal of it (3 Divisions+) is cut off in Mandalay. Attacks by the main forces of the Allied 14th Army have brought the forts down about half way but have otherwise been attended with significant losses. To the North Allied forces have taken Myitkyina and, reinforced by Chinese units moving back down the Burma Road, have pursued the broken garrison back through Lashio all the way to Taung Gyi. They have also now cut the railroad from Mandalay to Rangoon. A second force of Chindits has enveloped Mandalay on the West and advanced to Meiktila. Supported by bombing for the last 3 days it has just repulsed an attack by the 14th IJA Div and a Mixed Bde. Meanwhile another Allied Corps has crossed the Irrawady South of Magwe. For the moment the Allied have air dominance. Japanese airfields at Mandalay, Rangoon, Meiktila and Magwe have been repeatedly suppressed in spite of several commitments of large units of the latest Japanese fighters (Tonies and Tojos and A6M3s). A generalized shortage of supplies in the region seems pervasive amongst the Japanese positions. So........
What do you think...are the Japanese likely to lose an Army on the banks of the Irrawady just as their Allies in Europe are losing one on the Volga?
OR
Do the Brits and Chinese simply lack the strength to simulataneously smash the pocket and hold the outer perimeter that keeps it cut off?
