Rebels (Canoerebel) vs. Redcoats (Miller) - Big B 192

[Q-Ball]

I hope Miller continues, but that convoy battle in the South China Sea is telling. Dan, the coup de grace should be administered by keeping a fast CV force in the PI, ready to reach out and destroy anything in South China Sea. You won't notice benefits right away, but after 3 months or so, Miller will be hurting badly. The Home Islands produce some resources (not enough), but if he doesn't have a large oil stockpile, he will really start to hurt.

[Canoerebel]

1/11/44 to 1/16/44
 
Luzon:  Miller has pulled most of his Clark Field forces into Manila, bolstering the defenses of that fortress to 100k troops including three divisions (37th, 48th, 58th) and a brigade (65th) to this point.  This suits me, because I can advance my troops from Baguio, take Clark, and then move these troops to Manila (some of the troops in Northern Luzon are fragments of units currently at Manila, so access to Manila will help me recombine the fragments with the parent units).  Miller likewise evacuated Lamon Bay, which promptly changed sides.  So the Japs are down to Manila, a very weak hold on Clark, and some six or eight units at Bataan.  A concerted Allied deliberate attack at Manila on the 12th (prior to Jap reinforcements arriving) came off at 1:1, dropped forts to 6, and cost the Japs 1580/54/9 to 1878/39/13.  A  smaller deliberate attack the next day came off at 0:1, forts 6, with the Japs losing 594/23/5 to 625/19/11.  These attacks probably prompted Miller to abandon Clark. I probably won't attack Manila again until after I take Clark.  Also, the isolated Jap troops at San Fernando continue to hold, although the Allies took the city about a week ago.  They shouldn't last long. B-24s and PBY Liberators from Aparri hit a lick at Japanese shipping at Hong Kong, inflicting a good deal of damage on about 8 transports.

CenPac:  The big Allied supply/reinforcement convoy is north of Marcus, awaiting arrival of several straggling TFs.  John has some fleets moving SE from the southern tip of Japan, and at least one appears to have CVs.  I'm concerned that he may have caught wind of this convoy, so I'm sending TFs comprised of several US and British CVs and CVLs east from Legaspi, to lend a hand should that become necessary.  Back in San Fran, two US Army divisions are available and will eventually head west to help with Formosa, Okinawa, or whatever the next big target might be.  In the meantime, I may use them to take a few islands in CenPac to help shorten the supply lines and offer some ports along the way.  Finally, two really fast (33 knots) BB (South Dakota and New Jersey) arrived at Panama City and are heading to Pearl with some DD escorts. 

Burma:  Is the Japanese fortress Rangoon finally weakening?  An Allied attack on the 16th came off at 2:1, dropped forts to 3 , and cost the Japs 1071/48 to 2880/71/25.  The Allies have a transport convoy loaded with a Indian division, escorted by a combat TF and a very, very small carrier TF (consisting of a single CVE) just SW of Akyab.  These TFs will proceed to Rangoon under cover of P-38 long range cap from Akyab and Meiktila.  The Japs have a big airfield at Port Blair, but I doubt it will penetrate the CAP. Coastal defense guns and mines will be the biggest threat.

China:  Additional Jap attacks at Lungchow and against the isolated Chinese stack near Nanchang failed pretty miserably.

[Canoerebel]

1/17/44 to 1/19/44
 
All available Allied CVs are now at sea with the possibility of imminent action.
 
Burma:  The Royal Navy is about to land an Indian division at Rangoon.  The invasion fleets consists of three TFs:  troop transports, combat ships, and small carrier force.  These ships arrived just south of Rangoon on the 19th, just ahead of a small Jap supply and/or troop convoy steaming into Rangoon.  The single squadron of British AVGs sortied and put single torpedos into two transports.  Jap bombers from Moulmein and Port Blair sortied in managable numbers and were knocked down by CAP and LRCAP.  Tomorrow looks dicey - Miller has loaded up Moulmein with fighters and single-engine bombers - maybe as much as 350.  He also has a larger transport convoy to the south that he may try to force into Rangoon.  Accordingly, I have separated my ships - the CVE TF will flee toward Akyab under cover of LRCAP.  LRCAP will also be posted over Rangoon to protect the transports and combat ships.  Finally, all Allied bombers except Wellingtons have been ordered to strike Moulmein's airfield.  The Jap defenses at Rangoon are cracking - an Allied 1:1 attack on the 18th dropped forts to 2 and cost the Japs 2622/73 to 4510/80/31.  I don't want any further convoys to reach Rangoon.  I think I can take this city within two weeks.
 
CenPac:  The big reinforcement/supply/fuel convoy steaming toward the Philippines from Midway is now WNW Marcus Island, and an Allied CV convoy is steaming NE from Legaspi to meet these ships and provide additional protection.  So far no sign of Jap carriers.  Another day or two and my two fleets will rendezvous and that should essentially end any risk of a successful Jap attack.
 
Luzon:  Shortly after that CV fleet left Legaspi, Jap transports were sighted near Hong Kong.  I sortied the remaining CVs and CVLs from Legaspi and sent them toward Okinawa.  Nothing happened and they are on the way back.   However, on the 19th another Jap convoy was sighted SE of Hong Kong on a SE heading.  This could possibly be reinforcements meant for Luzon, so I sortied all the CVEs at Legaspi and sent then toward Aparri to intercept, if indeed the Jap ships remain on this course.  The Japs seem to be evacuating both Bataan and Clark Field, preparing for a final stand at Manila, where they now have an AV of 1700 with 125k troops.  That will be a tough nut to crack, but with the numbers of bombers and troops available, I think the outcome is a sure thing, although it will take time.
 
So, as I wait for tomorrow's turn, the Allies have four carrier TFs potentially in harm's way. 
 
China:  The Japs seem to be pulling back from Lungchow toward Hanoi.  Not sure why - Miller had the upper hand here, although it looked like it might take months or longer to to take the city.  He may have decided he needs these troops elsewhere.

[Canoerebel]

1/20/44
 
There were two big engagements today, both decisive Allied victories.
 
Burma:  At Rangoon, the Allied transports and combat ships entered Rangoon harbor, suffering many mine hits and some losses to shore guns (but nothing critical).  At the same time, a massive Jap transport convoy arrived.  20 SBDs from Meiktila sortied, damaging 2 AP, a PC, and an MSW.  The 44th Indian Division began landing.  Allied bombers hit the Jap airfield at Moulmein, destroying 20 aircraft on the ground, and seemingly kept the Japs bombers from trying to strike the Allied ships.  During the afternoon, a massive sea battle occurred, with a fairly small Allied combat TF flagged by BB Ramilles opposed by dozens of Jap transports escorted by CA Kashii, a few DDs, and a host of PCs and PGs.  It was a nightmare engagement for the Japs, who so far have lost 10 MSW, 13 AP, 9 PC, 9 PG, and CL Kashii.  Three Allied DDs suffered heavy damage to gunfire and mines.
 
Eastern Philippine Sea:  The Allied carrier TF heading NE to rendezvous with the transports convoys stumbled into a large Jap troop transport convoy midway between Iwo Jima and Pagan.  The first big morning strike badly damaged 10 AP and 2 DD with 868/13 ground casualties.  A follow-up strike by British aircraft put torpedos into 4 already damaged APs and caused another 209/5 ground casualites.  The big evening strike hit 8 APs and another DD, with 639/10 ground casualties.  The Jap casualties were 1st Vietnam Division (I wonder where in the world they had been, or were going to).  I think - but I'm not positive - that Miller was bringing ground troops back from the middle Pacific to the main theater of action.
 
Tomorrow:  the Allied CV force and the transport convoy will draw close together tomorrow, and should rendezvous the day after tomorrow. I'll rest easier then.  The Allies will also try another deliberate attack at Rangoon soon.  The first Allied units will arrive at Clark Field tomorrow also.
 
Situation:  At the moment, it seems like the Allies can move pretty much wherever they want, and the Japs are really suffering.  The Japs points lead is a little less than 2000 now.  Miller once remarked that he might call it off once the Allies take the points lead.  On the other hand, he usually regroups and continues the game no matter how bad things are going.  I hope that will be the case as it will be interesting to see how the Allies handle Formosa, Okinawa, and Japan.  But this can't be much fun for Miller, either, so I wouldn't blame him if he's about ready to move on to a new game.

[Canoerebel]

All this time I thought the Jap transports and escorts heading to Rangoon were bringing supplies and/or reinforcements.   Even when Miller brought to big combat TFs flagged by two pairs of battleships, and also sent a big CV force cruising in the Bay of Bengal.  I thought he was trying to force the issue.  I finally figured out that he is actually pulling troops OUT of Rangoon.  The timely arrival of my combat TF was fortuitous for me and very bad luck for him, and subsequent sorties by Allied LBA have added to his woes, but I think he's thus far managed to extract 1/2 or perhaps as much as 2/3rds of his troops, ferrying them to Moulmein where they will live to fight again.  Smart move, but the Allies exacted a pretty heavy toll on his shipping.
 
I'll provide more details tomorrow, but at long last the Allies took Rangoon (on 1/22/44).  About the same time, the Allies took Clark Field and extinguished the islated Jap troops at San Fernando.  Thanks to these events and the large number of Jap shipping sunk, the Allies also finally took the points lead on 1/22/44.  Since Miller is working hard to evacuate Rangoon, I'd say he's intent on fighting on (a good thing).
 
In the East Philippine Sea, the Allied CV TFs rendezvoued with the big supply/reinforcement convoy (midway between Pagan and Iwo Jima) and the combined forces are moving west, probably toward Luzon, but I might also use them to invade another likely island (Formosa or even Okinawa are possibilities).  Understandably, Miller figured the target was Iwo Jima, so I think that's why he was bringing that Vietnamese division there.

[Canoerebel]

1/23/44 to 2/1/44
 
South China Sea:  As the Allied reinforcement convoy from Midway approached Luzon, it looked like parts of Formosa were still lightly held, but that Miller is scrambling to augment his defense, especially at Takao.  Most of the Allied CVs were already near Formosa, trying to stop some transports from hugging the China coast while making a dash for Japan.  So, the Allies decided to combine these forces and invade Formosa.  The transports should arrive at the northern tip on the 2nd or 3rd.  This base is lightly held, and the invasion will include 9th Aussie Division, two U.S. RCT, and a host of support units including a base force.  Allied LBA have been surpressing Jap airfields on Formosa, Okinawa, and the China coast, so I hope things will proceed smoothly, but the invasion force is pretty deep within Indian country.
 
Luzon:  The Japs are down to Bataan and Manila.  At Bataan, 1st Aussie Division and 2nd Marines greatly outnumber the defense.  A 1:1 attack on the 1st lowered forts from 4 to 3 and the Japs suffered more casualties (500 to about 300).  Bataan should fall pretty soon.  At Manila, the Jap defense is now about 100K with an AV of about 1700.  A deliberate attack on the 1st came in at 0:1, forts 4, and casualties nearly even.  So even though it will take time to wrest this bastion from the Japs, things seem to be well in hand.
 
CenPac:  Part of the CV TF that sailed from Legaspi eastward to rendezvous with that reinforcement convoy then continued on to the NE and intercepted at least two Jap transport convoys, sinking a number of ships.  Miller then loaded up Iwo Jima with Bettys, which sortied and put two TT into BB West Virginia, doing only lightly damaged.  The Allied TFs continued steaming generally eastward, and should arrive at Midway in four or five days.  There damaged ships will be sent on to Pearl Harbor, while the others join force with 3 CVEs just arrived at Midway, and escort more supply and reinforcement convoys to the PI/Formosa/Okinawa (wherever they are needed).
 
Burma:  After taking Rangoon, I divided up the Allied troops.  Those needed rest and reinforcement stayed in Rangoon (I just learned it's a non-malarial city, so it's a great R&R location).  The rest of the troops moved north and then did a great job of staying together while crossing the river and attacking the Japs at Moulmein.  The Japs are well-entrenched (forts 9) and the attack came in at 0:1 and cost the Allies 5k to just 1.5k for the Japs.  But I'm across the river and can bomb, bombard, and send in bombardment TFs.  This, too, will take time, but the Allies will take this city eventually.  The Allies transfered in a 200 aircraft to Rangoon and they sank a multitude of the Jap transports at Moulmein.  I think the Japs lost 50-75 ships during the effort to pull a Dunkirk at Rangoon; but Miller did get most of his troops out of that city, moving them to Moulmein.
 
China:  Miller seems to be pulling back.  He's ended the siege of Lungchow, leaving behind two units and withdrawing at least 6.  He also evacuated five of the six units that had taken one of my cities by paratroop assault several months ago.  He left behind a mixed brigade, but pulled out all his paratroops (by air transport).  I think Miller pulled this units back in order to move them to Formosa (via air transport) or other points.
 
Points:  As of 2/1/44, the Allies lead by 1200 points.  The Japs seem to be on the ropes, but there's no quit to Miller.  He's working hard to reposition his assets so that he can fight again.

[Canoerebel]

2/2/44 and 2/3/44
 
Formosa:  On February 3, the invasion troops began disembarking at Taihoku on the northern tip of Formosa.  This includes an Aussie division, two US RCT, two Aussie brigades, two engineering aviation batallions, an HQ unit, seabee unit, and two base forces.  The defense consists of just an AA unit and the hex's standard fortification.  Unless something strange happens, the Allies will take this hex on the 4th.  Basing bombers here should totally close the door between the Home Islands and all the Jap possession to the south including Indochina, Malaya, Java, and Borneo.  To me, the most alarming thing for the Japs seems that (so far) they haven't even resisted this invasion - no Jap aircraft, no combat ships, no carriers.  If the Japs can't oppose an invasion of Formosa, can the end be long?
 
Burma:  A combat TF anchored by BBs Ramilles and Resolution hammered the Jap troops at Moulmein on the 3rd, inflicting 5231/61.  Recon sighted what appears to be a Jap combat TF approaching from the south.  I don't know if carriers are coming.
 
China:  Jap deliberate attack against the isolated Chinese stack near Nanchang on the 2nd failed again.  The 2:1 cost the Japs 14621/260/38 to 1869.  At Liuchow, the isolated Jap mixed brigade that air transported in, but is now alone, tried a 0:1 deliberate attack that cost them 231/5 to 34/0. 
 
Tomorrow:  The Allies will try deliberate attacks tomorrow at Manila and Bataan and a shock attack on Formosa. 

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To me, the most alarming thing for the Japs seems that (so far) they haven't even resisted this invasion - no Jap aircraft, no combat ships, no carriers. If the Japs can't oppose an invasion of Formosa, can the end be long?

Probably not. Alot depends on his HI and Oil stocks, if you have a large HI stock you can live for awhile without Oil, but there is no way the Japanese war machine can make mid-'45 if you have the Taiwan strait closed 3/44.

You are about to get B-29s I think, which will make life really miserable for him, using your new bases at Clark and Formosa.

[ny59giants]

Dan
Is there any way we can get a screenshot covering Formosa, Luzon, and China??  It would help clarify things for us viewers.
 
It looks like the next few months will be spent consolidating your positions in PI and Formosa. Then rebuilding some of those forces. The big question will be whether you turn towards going towards the HI or try to take some of the cut off areas. Any idea of where you are leaning??
 
KUDOS for jumping into Formosa when the opportunity presented itself. [&o][&o]

[Canoerebel]

NYGiants, I'll post some screen shots.  I haven't done any since my massive computer failure on January 9, because my new computer lacked the software.  But I've been meaning to install it for weeks now, so I shall do so and post some shots tomorrow.
 
Right now, I think Okinawa is fairly open, so I'm thinking about moving on it.  I have a Marine Division and two Army divisions loaded on transports at Midway awaiting arrival of the carriers that will escort them west.  They should leave Midway in less than a week, and will be ready to land in, say, two to two-and-a-half weeks.
 
The Allies have enough to take and seize the northernmost bases on Formosa, but I don't think I have enough to take on the defenders at Takoa (about 25k most likely well-entrenched).  Before committing to Okinawa, I'll make sure that things are well in hand on Formosa.
 
I have enough troops on Luzon to finish off Manila, though it will take awhile, so no more combat units will go that way.
 
Based upon recon and a general feeling for how things have developed, I think Miller has a large army down south (Malaya, Java, Indochina, Burma, etc), so the route north is not as heavily defended as you would expect.  Too, Allied naval power and land-based air seems totally overwhelming now.  Q-Ball is right - B-29s will be arriving pretty soon, and much of the HI is in range.  Things look good for the Allies, but that probably means it's time for a Battle of the Bulge type setback.  We'll see.

[ny59giants]

I would look to finding some way to drive your Chinese units towards the coast (Canton) to truly close the pocket on him. If I was Miller, I would be trying to get units to Hanoi and then march across China to have a chance with them being available for defense of the HI.
Next, I would look for ways to limit his air bridge back to the HI so only those with long transfer ranges can get back.  I would have my subs patrolling south of Iwo Jima looking for blockade runners trying to make it back to the HI.
He has got to be focused on extracting as much as possible from areas cut off or close to being cut off.  

[Canoerebel]

This map shows the situation around Luzon, Formosa, and the South China Sea as of 2/4/44. The Allies have just landed at the northern tip of Formosa, taking Taihoku on the 4th. It's a level 4 airbase, so the Allies have moved in recon, fighters, and bombers.

The Allied CV TFs are two hexes to the east of Taihoku.

The "black banner" gives information about the Jap garrison at Takao, the main base on the island's south end.

At Luzon, the Allies took Bataan on the 4th after a successful 6:1 deliberate attack.

[Canoerebel]

2/4/44 to 2/17/44
 
Formosa:  After taking Taihoku on the northern tip of Formosa, Allied troops moved south and took Taichu.  I've stopped there for now since Takao has some 25k defenders and I don't want to weaken what I've taken by moving south.  The US 158th RCT also took Bataan Islands (between Formosta and Luzon).
 
Next Invasion:  The second generation reinforcement convoy from Midway is between Marcus and Iwo Jima and is covered by two CVs, two CVLs, and a couple of CVEs.  Another carrier TF sailed NE from Legaspi to rendezvous, shepharding along 133 empty transports and tankers that are heading back to the United States the short way.  The reinforcements from Midway include 4th Marine Division and 38th Infantry Division.  These two along with two RCT (158th fresh from Bataan and another that had been stationed at Manado) will form the nucleus of an invasion force that will hit Nada on Okinawa.  Recon shows Nada is held by just three units.  D-Day will be within a week.
 
Burma:  Indian paratroops took Pisanoluke.  Since then, the British have been air transporting in the rest of that unit along with 1st Burma Brigade.  Miller reacted by sending a single unit of unknown strength up the road from Bangkok.  It just arrived, but I don't think Miller is aware yet that the Allies have more than just a handful of paratroopers at this base.  Early in this period, Jap combat ships moved into Moulmein.  I had given orders to the RN combat TF to remain there to protect the transports, but for some reason the combat ships withdrew to Rangoon.  Miller sank a goodly number of transports.
 
Celebes: The Aussie took an unoccupied Pinrang on the SW coast.  Eventually, the Allies may move west to Borneo and Java, taking lightly defended bases to establish some airfields in this region. 
 
China:  The Chinese wiped out the mixed brigade at Liuchow.  I think the Japs have given up on the effort to eliminate the isolated stack of Chinese units near Nanchang.  Miller once had 13 Jap divisions involved, but he's reduced that to 7.  He probably needs those divisions elsewhere.

[saj42]

You are maintaining a high tempo of operations in the PI area - good it keeps Miller on the back foot. All the while he is reacting he can't get a defence prepared.
Capturing Pisanuloke so easily is really advantageous.

I've been beseiging it for 4 months with half the SEAC army and only got the forts down to 2 [:(]

[Canoerebel]

2/18/44 to 3/3/44
 
This period has been marked by a number of sharp, though relatively small engagements with the Japanese getting in a multitude of stings.

First, the Midway reinforcement convoy rendezvoued with CV TFs between Marcus and Iwo.  Then the empty transports headed back to Midway covered by some CVEs.  However, a number of ships became scattered (mainly after taking bomb hits from recon Helens that slowed them down) and a number sank.

The reinforcement convoy then rendezvoued with additional transport TFs and CVs and made as though heading for Formosa.  Some supply and fuel convoys headed for Legaspi.  After a few days, the invasion convoy changed course from the Formosa heading and made for Nada, Okinawa.  The day before arrival at the beach, the covering CVs sortied air strikes that decimated a Jap ML convoy, sinking 5 to 10 MLs.  However, the MLs had deposited a multitude of mines at Nada.  Consequently, the invasion convoy has suffered a great deal of damage to mines and shore guns.  The troops came ashore and tried a deliberate attack on the 3rd, but were repulsed.  The Allies may need to send reinforcements, which isn't what I had planned.  On the 2nd, the covering CVs launched a large strike at Jap shipping at Shanghai, badly damaged 13 APs, an AK, and a PG.   The following day, Jap kamikazees sortied.  CAP got many of them, but enough got through to badly damage three US CVEs.  I've got my work cut out in the short run to stabilize Okinawa and make sure it doesn't degrade.

Edit: Two of the CVEs went down and the third, Long Island, is seriously damaged.

Burma:  The Allies nearly took Lop Buri in Thailand by deliberate assault on the 2nd, but but the next turn Jap reinforcmeents arrived.  But the Allies are transfering many units by air from Rangoon to Pisanoluke, which is creating a big threat behind Miller's main line at Moulmein.

[Canoerebel]

3/4/44 to 3/6/44
 
Okinawa:  After a long string of successes, the Allies have run into trouble in the Okinawa campaign.  After losing two CVEs to kamikazes a few days ago, with another badly damaged, the Allies ordered the remaining CVEs and most of the invasion TFs (all that had unloaded) back toward the Philippines under cover of carrier CAP and some LRCAP from Formosa.  Everything went smoothly the first day of the withdrawal, but the Japs loaded up the airfields at Takoa and Nada with kamikazes and escorts, and a horde descended on the Allied TFs on the 6th.  Six more CVEs went down (bringing the total over three or four days to eight), plus some transports.  Two or three DDs were moderately damaged.  On the 6th alone, the Japs lost 320 aircraft, the Allies 120.
 
At the same time, the Okinawa campaign is bogging down.  Miller's use of mines and shore guns disrupted my landing force, which under better conditions was sufficient to take the hex (originally garrisoned by 3 units with a total strength of 11,000 - in comparison, the Allies had a Marine division, army division, and two RCTs, plus support troops).  My troops became disrupted, and Miller began air transporting a mixed brigade from Tokyo.  My LRCAP is exacting a toll on the transports, but Miller has established enough of a defense that I'm going to have to work hard to prevent this from spiraling out of control.  The US is loading another Army division at Davao (85% prepped for Nada) along with some tanks and other support troops to join the fray.  I'll have to be careful due to the kamikaze threat.
 
The main US and Brit CV TFs just refueled at Nada.  About five more carriers are repairing at Darwin (all are under 10 SYS damage now) plus three more in SE Australia (including CVL Langley which is about ready to rejoin the war).
 
Miller has done a good job brining the Allied momentum in this region to a halt.
 
The Allies continue to bombard daily at Moulmein and Manila, the main points of resistance outside of Okinawa.  Tomorrow I'll try deliberate attacks at both points.  I don't foresee the Japs holding either base indefinately, but it should be a number of weeks or longer before the Allies take these cities.
 
The Allies also continue to air transport units into Pisanoluke, hoping to eventually create such a force that it threats the escape route of Miller's troops at Moulmein.

[Canoerebel]

3/7/44 and 3/8/44
 
Philippines:  The Japanese defense of Manila suddenly collapsed, much sooner than I had expected.  A 1:1 deliberate attack on the 6th reduced forts to zero and the Japs took 3631/42/39 to 2720/109/18.  I had intended to bombard only the next day, but a few of my units, lacking the ability to bombard, continued with deliberate attack orders.  This turned out much better than expected with the Japs losing more men than the Allies.  Another all-out deliberate attack on the 8th resulted in a 3:1 with the Japs losing 3587/47/25 to 3314/94/26.  One factor in the sudden demise was the constant bombings by Liberators, Mitchells, SBDs, and a some B-17s.  But I think Miller may have withdrawn a cadre of each unit to rebuild later, weakening the ability of the remaining troops to defend.  A huge fleet of barges arrived about four or five days ago.  I sunk perhaps 10 to 20 using fighters, PT boats, and even a DD/CL TF, but several score made it.  I thought Miller was bringing supplies, but perhaps it was a Dunkirk operation.

The Japs still have 100k troops in the Manila hex, but they will perish eventually under the continued bombings, bombardments, and occasional attacks.  As soon as Manila is fully secured, the Allies will have more than 200,000 soldiers available for action.  Some of these will be used to handle the remaining challenges on Formosa and Okinawa (which could be substantial).  Others will probably head for Brunei, to the south, and some of the Jap-held islands to the east (Palau and Yap are likely targets).

The Allied airbases on Formosa are now level 5s and can handle a total between them of 200 aicraft.  I'll need to bring in additional base forces, but I plan to use this island as my big bomber base in the not-to-distant future.

Burma:  An Allied 0:1 deliberate attack at Moulmein failed miserably; the Allies took 7k casualties to just 1k for the Japs.  I had low expectations for a deliberate attack at Lop Bui in Thailand, but it came off at 2:1, dropped forts to zero, and cost the Japs 800/28 to 387/18.  The Allies could take this base tomorrow and will then be at the doorstep of Bangkok.

China:  Miller continues to withdraw units from the hex with my huge, isolated stack (outside of Nanchang).  I think his troops are heading to Japan or coastal China.  Eventually, I"ll be able to come to the rescue of this stack or extract them on their own.  Miller has likely determined that he has much, much greater needs for troops elsewhere.

Points:  With the fall of Manila, the Allied points lead more than doubled, from 2,000 to nearly 5,000.  The Allies have 49,252 to the Japs 44,478.

[Q-Ball]

Taking Manila is pretty key, not just because it frees up so many troops, but it gives you an excellent Port to base your Far Eastern Navy. It's back enough to be secure, yet close to the front, and units stored there won't incur penalties from being in a Malaria zone.

[Canoerebel]

3/9/44 and 3/10/44
 
When he sent his email for the 3/10/44 turn, Miller included this mysterious message:  "Your hold on the PI leaves me with no choice.....I must look elsewhere for oil and resources....... Up early tomorrow so this is my last turn today."

As I first began to read that, I thought I was about to read that Miller was conceding.  When I finished the message and found no such thing, my next thought was, "Has he invaded Russia?"  I opened the combat report and found that is indeed the case. 

Before going any furhter, I sent Miller this email:  "Didn't we have a house rule that you have to give notice before invading Russia?  I'm not sure I still have the file due to my computer crash (I recovered most work files, but I don't know if I have any game files; I'll check)."

Unfortunately, my old files were indeed lost in my January 9 computer crash, so I hope Miller has a copy, but now I have to wait until tomorrow to find out if the invasion is "legal" under our house rules.  Arg!

Russia:  Jap invasion convoys arrived at Vladivostock, Sovetskaya Govan, and Ohka.  The bombardment convoy covering the Vlad invasion seemed to take alot of damage from shore guns, including at least two BBs.  That invasion includes 5 divisions, two mixed brigades, and three tank regiments.  The Sovetskaya invasion includes a division and two tanks.  Since I had no warning, I was caught completely offguard.  I have zero familiarity with Russia, the weakenesses the two sides face, my forces, where I need to move, etc.  I went ahead and did a provision turn in case it turns out we don't have a house rule.  The main thing I did was organize some transport aircrafts to airlift another ground unit into Vlad, and order forward from Irkutsk the horde of infantry and armor units.  My initial impression is that an invasion at this late date probably won't help the Japs.

Okinawa:  The reinforcement convoy just departed Legaspi for Naga, accompanied by the main Allied CV TFs, about four combat TFs, and two or three ASW TFs.  I'll have to herd this group carefully and take advantage of P-38 LRCAP from Formosa.  The reinforcements include a US Army Division, several tank units, and combat engineers.

Philippines:  It will take awhile to eliminate 100k Japanese defenders at Manila, but with the help of 4E bombers I hope it won't be a matter of months.

Burma:  More troops are arriving at Lop Bui and I will send them forward to Bangkok to feel out the defenses there.  The Japs at Moulmein aren't retreating.

China:  Chinese units at Lungchow moved forward into Vietnam (I had inadvertently triggered the Vietnam divisions early in the war, so that isn't an issue any longer).  Now they'll turn left and move on Haiphong.


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[Canoerebel]

Replayed 3/9/43 and 3/10/43 to 3/12/43
 
Russia:  Miller confirmed that our house rules provided for 30 days notice before invading Russia.  We then decided that we would compromise a bit - since the Allies now had a pretty good idea where the Japs would hit, he could invade Russia by providing 15 day's notice.  So then we backed up and replayed the turns of the 9th and 10th to "undo" the premature invasion.  Russia then activated on the 12th, and I am transferring much of my infantry from Irkutsk toward the coast.  Miller has targeted Russia's oil, but my early evaluation is that the Russians have alot of air and ground units.

Okinawa:  My Okinawa reinforcements are on the way.  A stout bombardment force, minesweepers, ASW, and a combat TF will arrive at Nada tomorrow.  The carriers and transports will take station a hex away.  This should be enough to take Nada unless I've miscalculated (again).

Burma:  The Burma Air Transport operation continues apace, with some 8-10 Allied units at Lop Bui and Bangkok.  I'm going to try a deliberate attack at Bangkok to gauge the strength of the defenses. 

Vietnam:  The units moving on Haiphong are moving cross country SLOWLY.  It may be two weeks before they arrive.

Situation:  It's March 1944; the Allies should take Manila soon freeing up about 275,000 troops that should finish off Formosa and Okinawa, and allow the Allies to move on Borneo and the islands east or northeast of the Philippines.  The first Superforts arrive in about thirty days.  Miller is fighting hard and the Allies have take some hits over the past two weeks, but I think the Allies are in great shape.