Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

7/3/43 to 7/7/43
 
Operation Green Planet: The Midway invasion forces are approaching the island and haven't encountered any resistance.  D-Day is set for June 9.  John's recon sighted the CV TFs on the 5th.  As best I can tell, John figured this was another feint (like the one I did a month ago) or a mission to strike his airfield.  He pulled out essentially all his aircraft.  Each day thereafter, I moved the CV TFs in an arc pivoting around Laysan Island, much as I did last time, and still no sign of Jap aircraft at Midway.  Most of the transport convoys - including at least 248 ships - are now just four hexes or so from the island, but the combat replay didn't show any Jap sightings.  Until three or four days ago, John had an arc of subs that might have picked up the transports, but he seems to have moved them south (but two subs at Laysan did pick off a supply AK).  The Japs sighted the mock invasion TF (perhaps 20 AKs, a few escorts, and CVE Long Island) well SW of Palmyra.  It has served its purpose, or it's purpose has expired with the Midway invasion imminent, so I've ordered it to proceed back toward Palmyra and the P-38 LRCAP that base affords.  I will be very interested in seeing if John sighted the Midway-bound transports tomorrow and whether he sends aircraft back to Midway.  There's a chance that the invasion force is large enough to threat to capture Midway on D-Day (due to the auto-attack), so maybe John doesn't wish to risk losing an airfield full of aircraft.
 
Operation Yellow Planet:  On the 7th, the Vietnam invasion troops at Lungchow received orders to march (all units set to follow a War HQ). This army includes one of the Indian engineer regiments freshly air-transported from Meiktila.  I hope this army is vast enough to take Hanoi and create some worry for John.  I want the scat to hit the fan as he deals with this offensive and Midway, plus Australia.
 
Australia:  Aussie units are probing the Jap defenses at Newcastle; and an Aussie army pushed back a Jap force (two small infantry and three armor units) west of Newcastle, sending these enemy units back toward Brisbane.  My sole hope here right now is apply pressure here too.
 
Aiding and Abetting the Enemy:  John mentioned that he had an exchange of some 50 posts on his AAR yesterday and got some "detailed" information about managing his economy.  This has puzzled me since the outset of the game.  John is a very experienced player.  I'm pretty green compared to him.  Yet he's seeking advice?  It just seems odd to me.
 
Map to Follow In Next Post

[Canoerebel]

As Operation Green Planet Approaches D-Day:

[USSAmerica]

  Good luck tomorrow, Dan!

[ny59giants]

I'm one of the guilty parties that took a look at John's economy. He post his economy statistics at the beginning of every month and some issues seemed to come up. He sent me an older turn and I gave him some feedback (I just started a game vs Allied AI using this mod this week and he had earlier sent me info about the Japanese and what changes to make from day 1). He knows I would not say anything that actually effects the military side of the game. I'm just here as an economic consultant. [;)] 
 
Rest easy, I've played only the Allies to date in PBEM and there is a part of me hoping your gambit pays off.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As Operation Green Planet Approaches D-Day:

Wow...that is quite an impressive armada. As this is operation Green Planet you are going to need to purchase some serious "carbon-offsets".

Good luck. Save the endangered Gooneys of Midway! [;)]

I just tried to mouseover French Frigate to see what kind of airpower you had there [:o]

[Canoerebel]

Cap, thanks.  I don't know about Gooneys.  My men have been reading your AAR and were hoping for some o' them Boobys of which you've been speaking.
 
French Frigate is a level 1 airfield that's 96% to level 2.  It currently has one P-38 squadron and one F-5 squadron.  When it goes to level 2, I'll add some more.  Layson Island is a level 1.  It has two P-38 squadrons.  I don't think John likes P-38s and I wonder if that's what led him to begin pulling out of Midway Island when Layson went to level one not long ago.
 
If you think this armada is big, wait until Operation Red Planet.  It should have well over 500 ships.  There are a multitude of supply, fuel, and aircraft transport TFs, plus replenishment and ASW TFs, sitting at Midway, plus many more AKs and APs that will be loaded later.  In addition, all or nearly all of the undamaged ships returning from Midway will participate.

[Mistmatz]

Good luck canoerebel, probably tension for us readers didn't rose as much as it did for you, but I can tell you I'm also very keen on seeing the results of the upcoming operation.

Give him something like that:
[;)]

[Canoerebel]

7/8/43
 
Operation Green Planet:  Most of the transport TFs moved within a hex of Midway, with a few stragglers a hex or two to the rear.  The CV TFs remain between Midway and Laysan Island, with CAP augmented by two P-38 squadrons.  John did not move his aircraft back to Midway, so LBA should not be a factor on D-Day. As I prepared for the big day, it seemed possible that John had elected not to contest the invasion.  But in an exchange of emails before I left for home, he said that Midway "could be interesting."  Thanks to that, now I won't rest easy until I get the next turn, and then I might be in for an unpleasant surprise.
 
The entire invasion force minus a single division is set to come ashore (that division is being held in reserve and will join the CV TFs).  This will include three Army divisions, 3rd Marine Division, two RCTs, combat engineers, tanks, artillery, and other support troops.  The transports are protected by a bombardment TF including two BBs, a CA, and two CLs. A small carrier force including two CVEs will also take position at Midway.  Since this force is in the forefront and doesn't have much aircover, I'm worried about it's exposure; but after weighing the risks and benefits as best I could, I decided to err on the side of protecting my main CV TFs by keeping them a little to the rear and under cover of that Laysan Island LRCAP.
 
Operation Red Planet:  SigInt reported several days ago that a Jap amphibious brigade is on a Maru heading for Manila.  The AV of this unit is less than 150, so it won't stop me from implementing Red Planet if (1) the Midway invasion goes well, and (2) advance scouting doesn't show Luzon strongly fortified.  If Midway turns out okay, Red Planet should get underway by early August.
 
Operation Yellow Planet:  My Vietnam invasion forces moved forward following an HQ, but I started them over again because the HQ moved 30 miles and the rest of the troops just 12.  I've scratched the "follow" command and just ordered all units to move forward a hex. I don't know if they'll cross the border tomorrow or not.  If they don't, and if Midway were to go atrociously, I might cancel the mission and wait until later.  Perish these gloomy thoughts.

[Canoerebel]

7/10/43
 
Operation Green Planet:  The invasion force arrived at Midway and encountered a vast minefield and shoreguns, but no Japanese ships or aircraft.  All of my TFs had minesweepers, but it seems that the shoreguns had orders to target minesweepers only.   My bombardment force did it's job and didn't take any hits to speak of, but I lost ten MSW and four SCs.  Then my transports began to unload in the midst of the minefield.  Here's the damage inflicted:  Minor Damage to 18 AKs and 8 APs; moderate damage to 9 AKs and 4 APs; heavy damage to 1 AK and 1 AP.  Of these, only the heavily damaged AP is likely to sink.  My troops came ashore and the shock attack (against 5th Independent Brigade, a coastal gun unit, and 2 engineers behind 9 forts) came off at 2:1, dropped forts to 7, and inflicted 1552/34 on the Japs, while the US troops suffered 2200/44/3.
 
Here's where my inexperience hinders me.  I don't know if the mines and shoreguns will be as devastating on the second turn.  Operating on the assumption that they could be, I'm pulling back all damaged ships and many transport TFs and ordering them to rendezvous with the carrier TFs.  If Midway falls tomorrow (not likely, I think), I will order the ships back to Midway.  If Midway doesn't fall, I'll send the damaged ships back to Pearl Harbor.  I think most or all of the ships that suffered minor damage could take part in upcoming Operation Red Planet.
 
I've also ordered my small carrier TF (two CVEs) at Midway to pull back and join the main carrier fleet.  However, their Hellcats will fly LRCAP over Midway.
 
A few transport TFs will remain at Midway and continue unloading.  This includes the TFs carrying the combat engineers and 3rd Marine Division.
 
U.S. troops on the ground have an AV of about 950, which should increase somewhat tomorrow prior to the next attack.  It may take awhile to overcome the defense this way.
 
There was no sign of Jap ships or aircraft, but John transferred in about 50 aircraft - all bombers, it seems.  I am somewhat concerned that he may now commit his carriers and combat ships, hoping to capitalize on the wounds caused by his mines and shoreguns.  That's why I've adopted a pretty conservative, defensive posture for tomorrow.
 
Summary:  To this point, the damage to my transports is manageable, but I'm a little uncertain about how to go about getting more troops ashore (if needed) without incurring significant damage.  I'll know more after tomorrow.
 
Operation Red Planet:  At this point, still on.  I'll have to evaluate how the damage to my transports affects my ability to carry what I need, but I think I'm okay.
 
Operation Yellow Planet:  The Chinese will cross the border into Vietnam tomorrow.
 
China:  The Japs seem to be gathering for a move on Wuchow, but I'm not very worried about that at this point.  The Chinese at Wuchow have an AV of 2900 with 9 forts, and I have three more units with a combined AV of 1300 just a few hexes west.  I'm sending one to Wuchow, and another half-way.
 
Burma:  Status quo for now.  I'm awaiting arrival of the Indian parachute regiment (due in about 40 days).  Too, I'll soon renew the air war over Rangoon.  I think John has withdrawn enough troops from Rangoon to allow the resumption of attacks as soon as the Allies attain air parity or superiority.  I think that may be just a month or so down the road.

[anarchyintheuk]

The mines were probably unaffected. MitP isn't fun.

The shore guns are probably disabled/disrupted to an decent extent.

You'll shock attack if you unload any troops tomorrow. Don't know if you want to rest them due to disruption or if they're good to go.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

The mines were probably unaffected. MitP isn't fun.

The shore guns are probably disabled/disrupted to an decent extent.

You'll shock attack if you unload any troops tomorrow. Don't know if you want to rest them due to disruption or if they're good to go.

Agreed. Judging from the huge number of mine hits, you are dealing with thousands of mines and given the big MSW losses, I doubt you dented the minefields that much. His shore guns will have suffered from the bombardment and your land attack. I'm not sure it does any good to pull out damaged transports unless they need to get back to port to prevent sinking. He will likely have subs lying in waiting to get your cripples anyway. I a sense it is desirable that a damaged AK take a second mine rather that an undamaged one take a 1st mine.

If you land any troops on day two, you will trigger a shock attack. Probably best to go ahead with the landing unless your force ashore is too beat up to help. You achieved a good result on day with with 2:1 and fort reduction. It really sounds like it is best to go full speed ahead. Invasion interruptis is very unpleasant. It may even cause urological problems later one. Take Midway if you can then you can dock the transports to unload and avoid most of the mines.

If you have BB's with full ammo, bombard the airfield at night to kill some of the bombers he flew in.

[Q-Ball]

Dan, I only know from the experience of having several atolls invaded by my opponent recently. I had mines in all of them, CD guns in some.

CD GUNS: In general, the effectiveness drops way off after turn 1. That's my experience.
MINES: Also drops off, not as significantly however. You will still get hits. One thing my opponent figured out: Try sending the MSW's into sweep as a Transport TF, NOT a MSW TF. They won't get targeted by the shore guns, but will still sweep mines.

I would keep unloading, unless your troops are SO tired. But figure that his are disrupted as well. Plus, if you get lucky you'll capture those Bomber Pilots.

Oh, and I would Bomb/Bombard the crap out of the airstrip if you are not going to already, as previous poster said. Particularly at night, you can stop that Bomber attack before it starts.

[Canoerebel]

7/10/43
 
Green Planet:  Thanks for the pointers, gents, but I had already sent the turn prior to making the last post.  Your predictions were accurate - the mines ate up my ships.  Nine SCs, two LCIs and an AK went down with many more APs and AKs damaged.  Out of all the carnage to my transports, however, I may only lose that one AK and the one AP that was badly damaged yesterday.  Some Japs Bettys sortied from Midway, but 18 Hellcats took care of them.  This Allied shock attack came off at 5:1, dropped forts from 7 to 2, and cost the Japs 1447/76 to 1612/52/8.  Midway should fall tomorrow.  I have a large base force on the island already, so the airfield should be operational immediately.  This operation has exacted a toll, but not an exhorbitant or crippling one, and taking Midway eliminates a big area that was under Jap control.
 
Red Planet:  After sorting through available ships, replacing the AKs damaged at Midway won't be a problem.  Replacing APs will be more of a challenge, but I think I have enough 7200 capacity AKs at San Fran to pull it off.  The loss of the MSWs shouldn't be a factor since Red Planet relies upon surprise.  I don't think John will foresee a move on Luzon.  He shouldn't have time to mine those ports heavily.  My ground troops will be fine, and none of my combat ships and carriers have taken damage yet.  The biggest concern is the enemy carriers.  I had hoped that Midway would bring on a carrier engagement that the Allies would win, because I don't want to take them on during Red Planet, but I may not have a choice.
 
Yellow Planet:  The Chinese have crossed the border.  They will rendezvous a hex north of Hanoi and then move on that city, which has ten units some 61,000 strong. 

[anarchyintheuk]

Needless to say, if you ever see his MLs go to great lengths to kill them. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

7/11/43 and 7/12/43
 
Midway:  The Allies took Midway on the 11th after a 5:1 shock attack and transferred in fighters, SBDs, and patrol aircraft.  After another Allied attack, this on the 12th, three of the four Jap units succumbed to attrition and disappeared.  That leaves the Jap brigade to defend the island, but it won't hold out long.  I had posted a thread to ask for confirmation that mines "switch sides" when a hex is taken.  When the consensus was, "Yes, they do" I sent the damaged US transports to Midway to dock.  Apparently, mines don't change sides, or at least not unanimously, because I had another thirty or so mine hits.  Ouch.  Despite the damage to my transports, Operation Green Planet went pretty well.  Midway is just the 8th base reclaimed by the Allies to date.

Australia:  The Jap garrison at Newcastle, includng 2nd Division, is withdrawing towards Brisbane.  They were threatened with being surrounded as Australian forces move north towards Brisbane on the inland road.

Vietnam:  The Chinese troops moved 23 miles on the road to Hanoi, so the river crossing may take place in two days.  The Chinese have AV 7,000; I hope that's enough to overwhelm the defenses before John can send reinforcements.

China:  The Japs have moved across the river to threaten Yenen.  In a few days, I will probably evacuate Yenen and head for Sian since the former is out in the open and therefore subject to being surrounded and cut off.

Operation Red Planet:  SigInt reports 2nd Area Army on transports heading for Legaspi, and Imperial Guards Divison on transports heading for Soerabaja.  For the first time in months, John's aircraft hit Iloilo, so he finally may have decided to deal with that outpost.  I had hoped that Red Planet might catch so much of the Japanese army in their advanced positions that John would have a tough time retrieving them and repositioning them where
they were needed, but John embarked on a strategic withdrawal before I could implement my plan.  Red Planet is still "on go" for early August.  If the Japs take Iloilo or other developments prompt a change, I think the alternative will be Blue Planet rather than a sudden change to Red Planet to strike an alternative target like Eniwetok, Marcus, or Iwo.

The Planet Names:  When I first thought about invading Luzon, the idea was that the Allies were going to strike out deep into "space" and establish a self-supporting "colony" on a "distant planet."  This colony would have sufficient supplies, fuel, ground units, and aircraft to ward off any counterattack and to hit Jap shipping in the South China Sea.  IE, it was as if I was going to colonize Mars.  The alternative plan, invading Hokkaido in the farn northern reaches of the Pacific, took the name Blue Planet.  Green Planet was at first a sham name I used in hopes of throwing John off, but it later got assigned to the Midway operation.

[Q-Ball]

Dan, sorry I didn't chime in on that post, other than to say that captured Mines are harmful to the Japs.....but to you too. They are harmful for EVERYONE. On the bright side, you can now sweep them without getting creamed by CD guns.

[Canoerebel]

7/13/43 to 7/16/43
 
Operation Yellow Planet:  On the 13th, the Chinese army crossed the river and attacked the Japanese defenses at Hanoi, missing a 2:1 by just 12 points.  Here's the combat report: 
 
Allied Shock attack 
Attacking force 266245 troops, 655 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 7542 
Defending force 69840 troops, 647 guns, 506 vehicles, Assault Value = 1298 
Allied max assault: 7708 - adjusted assault: 4736 
Japanese max defense: 1290 - adjusted defense: 2374  
Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 9)  
Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 8
 
Japanese ground losses:
3619 casualties reported
Guns lost 55
Vehicles lost 5
 
Allied ground losses:
2920 casualties reported
Guns lost 133
 
That was close too close, but now the Japs have brought in reinforcements and the task will be much tougher.  I think this will devolve into a long seige.  I wanted Hanoi quickly, but more importantly is the overall objective of trying to create a hot-spot so that John (hopefully) isn't relaxed and thinking about the Philippines.
 
Operation Red Planet:  The Japs are paying more attention to Iloilo, unfortunately.  Zeros visit every day, and even more ominously Babs from Manila are now reconning the base.  If he moves on this base in the next two weeks, I'll probably have to scrub Red Planet.  The Allies currently have 17 carriers at Pearl (4 CV, 5 CVL, and 8 CVE).  CV Bunker Hill and CVL Cabot are on the way from Panama City; and CV Lexington will arrive at San Francisco in just 10 days.  Red Planet could get under way in about 17 days.  The biggest obstacle right now is getting the infantry and Marine units back from Midway to Pearl to rest up and re-load.
 
Jap CVs:  A Mini-KB moved into the ocean east of New Zealand and sank on of the scattered AKs delivering 2nd Marine Air Wing to Auckland.  So John apparently hasn't consolidated all his CVs, which would be a good thing for Red Planet or Blue Planet.  I'll continue to send ships toward New Zealand to keep John's interest up.
 
Australia:  Having reclaimed Newcastle, the Aussie's are unsure whether they ought to move on Brisbane yet. 
 
Burma:  Quiet here as the main points of friction (Rangoon, the hex to the north, and the hex to the north of Pisanoluke) remain contested and at stand-offs at the moment.
 
Analysis:  If the Allies still hold Iloilo in a month (long enough for the invasion force to sail from Hawaii, bypass Marcus, and approach Luzon), Red Planet will take place.  If the Japs take Iloilo, I'll probably scrub the operation in favor of Blue Planet (invasion of Hokkaido) or possibly something different. 

[Canoerebel]

7/17/43 to 7/21/43
 
Operation Violet Planet:  There is no such thing; this is another sham operation.  The heading is intended to reinforce any notion that John might have that my Midway invasion has hampered my ability to mount another invasion in the near future.
 
Operation Red Planet (Invasion of Luzon):  CV Lexington will arrive in San Francisco in three days.  I'm busy retrieving divisions from Midway and returning them to Pearl, where I have four "ready to go" at the moment.  I want to take 6 or 7 with me.  The Japs haven't moved on Iloilo yet, so things are still set to kick off in about 10-15 days.
 
Operation Yellow Planet (Invasion of Vietnam):  The Chinese are good and bogged down at Hanoi with a sharp decline in AV.  I don't think I can take Hanoi in the short term.  The best I can hope for is to create some noise to give John reason to pay attention to this area.  Soon, the Allies should be able achieve air parity or superiority and then I will have a better chance to create real pressure, both here and at Rangoon.
 
Burma:  John has significantly reduced his defenses at Rangoon, from a high of AV 4800 and 225k troops, to about 2100 AV and 110k troops at present.  The Allies have more than twice as much, plus another 2800 AV a hex to the north.  When the Allies get air superiority, which should be pretty soon now, the campaign for Rangoon will begin in ernest.
 
China:  A Jap advance division moved into Yenen and got repulsed easily.  John has some 9 units a hex north of Yenen.  I'll fight for the city for awhile, but ultimately I'll probably pull back to Sian.  John can make some headway here, but once again looming Allied air superiority should make it difficult for him to accomplish much.  Elsewhere it is quite at the moment, although John has ten units spread between the two hexes east and NE of Wuchow; at some point I expect a move on this city.
 
Australia:  The Jap 4th Division is just south of Brisbane, and 20th Division is east of Broken Hill; so the Japs are still present in some force in Australia.  I'm temporarily pulling back my units towards the safety of my main lines around Newcastle, Sydney, and Melbourne until I get a better feel for whether John is truly pulling out of Australia, maintaining a strong presence, or possibly even planning a surprise offensive.
 
Jap High Command:  I'd like to know what John is thinking right now.  He damaged a ton of Allied transports at Midway; does he think my ability to transport troops has been crippled?  Does he believe Wake or Marcus to be the next likely targets.  Were recent troop deployments in the Philippines small-scale readjustments of his deployments, or is he actively considering the possibility of an Allied invasion?  Why hasn't he seized Iloilo?
 
Allied High Command:  Red Planet is a risky operation, but it has become even more clear that I can't afford a methodical or predictable offensive; I don't need a series of Midway-like encounters with well-prepared defenses.  Iloilo is the real key to Red Planet.  I can base recon aircraft and some P-38s there and possibly send in some reinforcements by APD when my main invasion force draws close to Luzon.  So I would have much better information about the defenses than I would if I struck a position where I didn't have the ability to recon.  I put the odds of success at 40%, but it will be an interesting operation.

[Q-Ball]

Dan, interesting read as always. I love the false intel. Your choice of bizarre colors is going to screw with his mind. How about Fuschia or Chartreuse Planet?

What is your tactical plan for taking Luzon? Luzon has many landing points, and it is nearly impossible to contest "on the beach". You know better than I, but I would land at large airbases at Appari or Laong, and I would also grab Batan Is. as a side operation. Batan is not likely to be well defended, if at all, and would give you another significant airfield right off the bat. You could even grab it at D-Day - 1, and provide start unloading your LBA.

The other alternative is Naga/Legaspi, but I don't like that. If he does have troops on Luzon (which I think is unlikely in strength), they could decend quickly on those spots. Also, the terrain is tougher up north, easier to resist counterattacks.

What LBA will you pack? I imagine lots of Corsairs and DB's. Can you stage P-38s from India/Burma/China? How about B-24s? You may have thought of this, but I would load some Corsairs onto CVE's for quick unload.

You will really need those Reserve CVE's for this operation. The one thing that would collapse the whole operation is if John attacked you over and over with A/C on the trip to Luzon, and degraded your CAP enough to start getting hits. You will need a port to replenish your planes, so there will be a good 10 to 14 turns where he can attrite your CAP. On the bright side, he would have to commit to losing hundreds of pilots in that strategy.

[Canoerebel]

QBall,
 
Aparri is target numero uno, with some of the nearby ports possibilities as secondary targets.  Some kind of on-map intel revealed that John has 3 units at Aparri, which caught me by surprise.  I'll know more when I stage in the F-5s to Iloilo (a few days or a week prior to D-Day). I hadn't though of Bataan Islands, but I'll look at that.  I want to seize Baguio as quickly as possible, because it is inland and therefore immune from bombardment.
 
I will be bringing alot of crated aircraft including alot of P-38s, Corsairs, and SBDs. They are already crated in transports at Pearl Harbor.  Yes, I can stage in aircraft from CBI, including P-38s, recon aircraft, and more bombers.  I think I may be able to air transport in some ground troops from China once I take Laoag and Aparri.
 
All CVEs (with the possbile exception of Long Island) will accompany the invasion, including several loaded with the replenishment Hellcats and Avengers.  I don't think I've figured out how to set up this kind of replenishment program.  I tried a mock run at Midway and it didn't work.  I created some replenishment TFs with AOs and the CVEs.  These TFs accompanied the main carrier TFs.  But when those TFs lost a few Hellcats to operations, I wasn't able to replenish them.  Am I doing something wrong?