Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[saj42]

If the CV squadrons are set to accept replacements then they 'should' pull a/c from the CVEs.
Mind you I haven't had recourse to rely on it yet myself

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

QBall,

Aparri is target numero uno, with some of the nearby ports possibilities as secondary targets. Some kind of on-map intel revealed that John has 3 units at Aparri, which caught me by surprise.

I would bet though that most units you will see through intel, at this stage, are probably base force and construction units. That's why this is really interesting strategy; I don't think he will have significant ground forces there. He absolutely should be building bases and forts by now, which is why I would expect engineer units, but the only reason to base troops there now (assuming he is NOT expecting this invasion), would be as a ready-reserve at Manila. Given all the ground he has to cover way out into the Pacific, how many troops could possibly be there? He has large concentrations at Rangoon, Moulmein, Hanoi, Australia, plus garrisons at how many islands in the Pacific?

Iolio or no, I can't imaging you losing this on the beaches. You will get ashore. Your calculations have to revolve around how you STAY ashore, specifically can you prevent him from unloading reinforcements at Manila. Do that, and Luzon is easily yours. That is assuming you bring a truly massive convoy of supplies, which I bet you are.

I think you are better off landing "blind" in Luzon than on Hokkaido. I would continue with this operation even if he wipes out Iolio. But maybe that's just because I want to watch.......[:D]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Jap High Command:  I'd like to know what John is thinking right now.  He damaged a ton of Allied transports at Midway; does he think my ability to transport troops has been crippled?  Does he believe Wake or Marcus to be the next likely targets.  Were recent troop deployments in the Philippines small-scale readjustments of his deployments, or is he actively considering the possibility of an Allied invasion?  Why hasn't he seized Iloilo?

John likes to retain an isolated Allied base in the PI to help trian his pilots. It's analogous to a raptor holding a squirming rabbit in her talons and letting her brood peck at it a bit before it dies.

Allied High Command:  Red Planet is a risky operation, but it has become even more clear that I can't afford a methodical or predictable offensive; I don't need a series of Midway-like encounters with well-prepared defenses.  Iloilo is the real key to Red Planet.  I can base recon aircraft and some P-38s there and possibly send in some reinforcements by APD when my main invasion force draws close to Luzon.  So I would have much better information about the defenses than I would if I struck a position where I didn't have the ability to recon.  I put the odds of success at 40%, but it will be an interesting operation.

I am looking forward to it. John will think you are headed for Wake...then Marcus...then Iwo Jima. [:)] I am not going to miss it. If it doesn't work you will have even more readers just for the looky-loo value [:D]

It is a wild idea...recon during the invasion determining the plan [:)] It reminds me of Lee's invasion of Maryland and Pennsylvania....of course, we all know how that turned out.

Dont send anything to Iolio until it is absolutely clear that is your destination...you dont want him taking the place before you get there if he deduces your destination. Why not add a feint toward Iwo Jima? It will take him a while to figure out why some of your ships kept going West.


BTW ...does he have recon aircraft at Iwo and Marcus and Saipan? Do you have a chance of sneaking through undetected?

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents, for the encouragement and suggestions.  Many of these things are already underway:

1)  The Allies have the following supply TFs at Pearl Harbor already loaded:
    a) Five replenishment TFs with 320,000 tons of fuel.
    b) Four tanker TFs with 492,000 tons of fuel.
    c) Four supply TFs with 303,000 tons of supplies.

2)  I hope that won't be all, but I'll have to wait to see if I have any transports left over after loading my troops.

3)  The plan is to move on Marcus, then side-step toward Iwo Jima.  Both bases now support level four airfields.  Cap, I'm sure he has recon aircraft at both bases.  However, I sent a "picket" AK west of Midway about ten hexes and it has remained there undisturbed for a week.  Two more will be heading west shortly.  They may help me choose a route of "least detection."

4) There is some chance that John may empty the airfields (as he did at Midway) fearing that an invasion shock attack might take the island on the first turn.

5)  After making my faints, I'll move toward Luzon.  At this point, I will be surprised if we haven't had a major carrier engagement.  In fact, it's probably better that I have one by then rather than facing John's carriers and LBA in the Philippines.  He's got alot of small base forces there, and appears to have a larger one at Legaspi (since 80+ Zeros each turn are striking Iloilo).

6) By the time my fleet bypasses Marcus and Iwo, John should have serious suspicions and concerns about the Philippines and Iloilo.  That's when I'll transfer in P-38s and F-5s and see what I can do to hold the base while the invasion force is closing in on Luzon.

I haven't detected any signs of unusual build-up or activity in the PI yet.  There have been transfers of some base forces and engineers there, plus that one amphibious unit that has an AV less than 150.  And, as you pointed out QBall, he has serious concentrations of units at the perimeter - at least two divisions in Australia, and mixed brigades at island bases like Papete, Dutch Harbor, etc.  Since I just moved on Midway and moved on Wotje earlier in the game, John may think the Marshalls, Wake, or Marcus are the most likely targets.

CV Lexington arrived in San Fran.  She'll stay there a day to swap obsolete aircraft for good ones, and then move toward Pearl Harbor tomorrow.  In a way, that will be the beginning of Operation Red Planet.

P.S.  Cap, funny that you mentioned the Civil War analogy.  An hour ago I was mountain biking and thinking about Red Planet; I wondered whether all my rationales for undertaking it would be analogous to Burnside's rationales for moving on Fredricksburg, or if instead it might be like Lee's plan to divide his outnumbered army at Chancellorsville.  I hope it's the latter:  a calculated risk that catches the enemy by surprise and unprepared.


P.P.S. Two seconds after posting this, John posted an AAR update titled "Backing up the inner perimter." Holy cow, not only is he thinking about this kind of thing, he's using the same language that I've been using in my AAR. Well, if he figures out Red Planet, then I've simply lost to a better player.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S.  Cap, funny that you mentioned the Civil War analogy.  An hour ago I was mountain biking and thinking about Red Planet; I wondered whether all my rationales for undertaking it would be analogous to Burnside's rationales for moving on Fredricksburg, or if instead it might be like Lee's plan to divide his outnumbered army at Chancellorsville.  I hope it's the latter:  a calculated risk that catches the enemy by surprise and unprepared.

I hope the Burnside analogy doesn't apply to Red Planet . . . an excellent maneuver but he forgot something important (the pontoon bridge in Burnside's case).

[Canoerebel]

7/22/43 to 7/29/43
 
As the time to launch Operation Red Planet nears, unsettling developments are forcing me to re-evaluate my options.  Kind Readers, please refrain from replying to this post.  While your comments and insight have been most welcome, I want to avoid generating alot of AAR traffic that might alert John to the fact that something is up.

Red Planet:  After all this time, John invaded Iloilo on the 29th.  49th Division and 1st Amphibious Brigade arrived, took some licks from shore guns, but got firmly establsihed.  He'll outnumber me about four or five to one, so there's no chance of holding the base.  That takes away a key factor that led to the rationale behind Red Planet.  Without it, I lack the ability to reconnoiter just prior to the invasion, plus the distraction that an Allied base with P-38s and F-5s would have created.  The invasion forces are gathering at Pearl Harbor - CVs Lexington and Bunker Hill will arrive in two to three days - and I'll be ready to go in a week.  At this point I'm considering three options:  (1) Proceed with the invasion of Luzon; (2) Invade Iwo Jima instead; or (3) Switch to Operation Blue Planet and invade Hokkaido.  I may even consider other options over the next few days, but those are the most likely.  I'd favor Iwo Jima, but that should be the most probable of the three targets in John's mind.  On the other hand, I do have three AK "picket ships" posted well west of Midway - 12 or 13 hexes in an arc - and so far no sign of Jap awareness.  If that continues to hold true, the invasion force could proceed pretty far before detection.  I'll mull all of this over.

Australia/NZ:  Quiet.

Burma:  Quiet.  In Thailand, John has reinforced his "outpost" a hex north of Pisanoluke.  He has 55th Division, part of another division, and two tank units there.  He tried a deliberate attack on the 29th but got repulsed, losing 848/20/2 to 153/4.  He'll need more to push back the three Chinese units, which are fighting in forested terrain, but even if he did push me back I wouldn't be concerened since this is nothing more than a place where I'm hoping to apply a little pressure.

China:  John continues to gather troops near Wuchow - he's up to 12 units split between the two hexes to the east (true east).  but the defense is 3500 AV with 9 forts, plus another 400 AV within a couple of day's march, so I don't think he'll accomplish anything here.  To the north, John has units all over the place at and to the east of Yenen.  I think he's trying to flank Yenen, but I have troops in most of the hexes.  He'll have to cross a river to attack.  I'm not sure what's going to happen here, yet.

P.S. The request that readers refrain from replying is temporary - I figured the Iloilo news would generate "traffic" that might alert John that something big was up. I'll rescind the request tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

7/30/43 and 7/31/43
 
Please don't reply to this post.  The temporary ban on chatter remains in effect until the Japs sight the invasion TF.
 
Midway:  A Jap CL/DD TF arrived at Midway on the 31st, but I had seen her coming the day before; so there were plenty of PTs boats to greet her.  The Japs lost three DDs and didn't penetrate the PT boat screen.  These ships came from the Aleutians, where there have been several recent sightings of Jap combat vessels cruising the seas.  I don't think Johh has offensive aspirations in that area - I get the feel that he may be stomping around trying to see if he flushes any game (IE, he's trying to figure out if the Allies are planning an offensive there).  Fortunately, John's raid on Midway didn't occur a a week later when he might have stumbled into my invasion TF; nor has he sighted the picket AKs west of Midway.
 
Red Planet:  Some troops transports began loading on the 1st.  I have four full-strength divisions, and three more that are still recovering from losses or disruption incurred during the Midway invasion.  I began loading three divisions, and three aviation regiments, then began wondering whether I woud have nearly enough ships to handle what I want to take.  After loading these six units, plus with another 75-100 ships already loaded with supplies, fuel, and aircraft, I still have 186 AKs and APs in port, not to mention several score LSTs and other troops transports.  So there should be enough room despite the ships lost or damaged at Midway.  CV Lexington is on the way in from San Fran in a small TF with a BB, DD, and DE and stumbled across a Jap sub just NE of Pearl; fortunately the sub seemed to sight only the DD and DE.  All 22 U.S. CVs will be in port tomorrow.
 
Of the three alternatives, Luzon remains the target of choice, with Iwo Jima and Hokkaido trailing in that order.  I won't have to make a final decision until I approach Iwo.  By then, a major carrier clash might have occurred, impacting on the decision.
 
I think the invasion fleet will get underway in three or four days.
 
Operation Violet Planet:  This code name has been assigned to the British move on Sumatra or Java.  The British TFs are gathering at Colombo.  This move will be timed to coincide with Red Planet to create a second hot spot.
 
China:  The Japs showing major signs of moving on Wuchow, Yenen, and possibly trying to cut off the troops at Yenen or Honan.  The Chinese are reacting, moving a few troops in response.  At this late date in the war, I think the Japs will have a difficult time, because the Allies should soon have the types and numbers of aircraft that permit them to assert control over selected areas, at least defensively.

[Canoerebel]

8/1/43 and 8/2/43
 
Operation Red Planet:  Lord have mercy, I've been loading transports at Pearl Harbor the past three days and the amount of record-keeping is enormous.  I'll make a detailed list of the TFs, troops, and cargo embarked next post.  Suffice it to say, the invasion force is massive.  Most TFs should weigh anchor tomorrow, rendezvouing a few hexes NW of Pearl where I can get everything organized and make sure I have everything I intended to take.  I think I would have taken the entire Allied forces had there been enough transports, but I was pleasantly surprised at how much I was able to load.  All those 7200 ton AKs made up for the transports lost or damaged during the Midway invasion.  The transport fleets will sail NW passing Midway just to the north.  At present, I plan to send the carriers NW passing Midway just to the south.  All forces will rendezvous just west of Midway.
 
Luzon:  SigInt on the 2nd reveals 8th Tank Regiment is loaded on a Maru heading for Manila.  It's almost as if John can read my mind.  Early in the game, I posted some thoughts about invading Sumatra, and over the next few weeks had SigInt reports of Jap units moving to ports in Sumatra.  Since then, I don't think I've had a single report of troops moving to Sumatra.  Now I get signals of units moving to Luzon, plus John finally takes Iloilo just as I'm getting ready to embark.  He's got me pegged.  Very frustrating.
 
Operation Violet Planet:  The Royal Navy and transports have arrived at Colombo to begin loading.  Likely target is southern or western Sumatra.  This force will include 3 CVs and a CVL.
 
Australia: Quiet as the Allies aren't yet pressing on the Jap main line of resistance (Adelaide/Broken Hill/Brisbane).  I will advance to coincide with Violet Planet and Red Planet just to create a hot spot.
 
Burma:  Quiet.  John has seriously reduced his Rangoon garrison, but I'm not taking offensive action until I control the skies.
 
China:  Waiting to see how John unleashes his North China campaign.  Jap troops are spread out - three Jap divisions and several Mongolian cavalry divisions are besieging Yenen, and many more units are in hexes to the southeast.
 
Aiding and Abetting the Enemy:  I had a message from another player and from John yesterday that this other player was going to help John with his economy.  I protested.  This level of help - plus the advice John tells me he gets in his AAR - really surprises me.  He is a very experienced player against a (comparative) novice and has kicked my butt throughout the game.  Now I'm way, way behind (17,500 points to something like 42,500) and the odds against the Allies mounting a comeback are quite long.  And he's getting help?  I thought this was a one on one game.  It's like Bobby Fischer beating up on some highschool chess champion and then getting advice from Garry Kasparov and Anatoly Karpov.  What the heck?

[Canoerebel]

[font="Arial"][font="times new roman"]8/3/43 to 8/7/43[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]
[font="times new roman"]Thanks: Thanks to all of you for honoring my request for no posts; please continue to refrain for the time being. The invasion is underway now and the next two weeks of game time should determine the outcome of the war. The absence of "chatter" on this AAR will help me keep things "low key" until John gets the first invasion sightings.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Red Planet: The transports began leaving Pearl Harbor four days ago, steaming slowly (to allow a few still loading to join up) NNW under cover of LR CAP. The carriers will depart Pearl on the 8th. A full roster of the carrier and combat TFs is listed at the end of this post. Tomorrow, I'll edit this post, or simply add a new post, listing all transports, troops, material, and auxilliary forces involved.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Thus far there are no signs of unusual Jap activity in the vicinity of Midway. An Alf did sight one of my picket AKs about four days ago, but I moved that ship and there haven’t been any further sightings. I wonder what John made of that, though.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]In a piece of good luck, SS Rasher put a torpedo into CVL Chitose four hexes NE of Truk on the 3rd. That should be the fourth Jap carrier out of action (Hiyo and Junyo permanently; Chitose and Shoho temporarily).[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Violet Planet: The RN invasion fleet continues loading at Colombo. I don’t have as much infantry as I would like, but it should be enough to gain a solid hold in Sumatra (assuming, of course, that John commits fully to thwarting Red Planet).[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Burma: More Jap units arrived at the hex north of Pisanoluke. Augmented by two parachute regiments, the Japs launched a shock attack on the 5th at 2:1 odds, but lost 1385/27/1 to just 145/4 and failed to dislodge the three Chinese units. I hope this little battle will continue to draw Jap attention.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]China: A Jap tank regiment crossed the river and entered the hex south of Yenen, but a Chinese unit bloodied it and drove it back the next day.[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]
[font="times new roman"]Red Planet "Accounting": I plan to keep detailed notes about this invasion - exhaustive perhaps. This is more for my reading pleasure than anything else. If this invasion goes badly, the game could end. I'd hate to see eight months of constant play end without something (this AAR) to show that it happened.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Red Planet Roster:[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I. Carrier Fleet[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]
[font="times new roman"]a. Six CV TFs (each with a CV, CVL, and BB) totaling 98 ships.[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b. Combat TF (BBs Washington and Massachusetts, 4 CLs, 10 DDs)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]II. Protection TFs Embedded with Transport TFs[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]
[font="times new roman"]a. Combat TF 1 (BBs Maryland and Pennsylvania, CA, 3 CL, 5 DD)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b. Combat TF 2 (BB Mississippi, CA, 3 CL, 10 DD)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]c. Escort carrier TF (3 CVEs, BB, __ DDs)[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]
[font="times new roman"]III. Transports (to be updated tomorrow)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]IV. Replenishment (to be updated tomorrow)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]V. Auxiliary TFs (to be updated tomorrow)[/font]

[font="times new roman"][/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] [/font]

[Canoerebel]

No Regrets
 
As Operation Red Planet gets underway, I realize the enormity of the risk I'm taking; come what may, I have no regrets about the operation or about several other recent decisions:
 
1.  Had I been able to get underway a month ago, I could have taken advantage of Allied possession of Iloilo, and John had several less fightings units on Luzon; but I decided to wait on the additional carriers (CVs Bunker Hill and Lexington and CVL Cabot).  I think the extra carriers are crucial (at least to my comfort level).
 
2.  I'm really glad the Allies seized Midway.  While the operation cost me alot of precious transports and roughed up some infantry units, it converted thousands of square miles of Pacific Ocean to Allied control, eliminating the need to sail wide around the island.  I can refuel at Midway, remain under LR CAP a few days out from there, and can fall back there if things turn sour early.  By my reckoning, Midway was a tremendous success (even though John did a masterful job creating a bushwacking by mines).
 
3.  There is now way the Allies could get back in the game by conducting a series of Midway-like operations.  Too bloody; too slow.  Luzon represents a chance to claw my way back into the game and put John in a difficult position.  I put my chances of success at about 30-40%, but considering how far behind I am that's reasonable.
 
Onward!

[pat.casey]

I'm assuming this is obvious, but are you boxing a lot of short range fighters to unload in Luzon once you capture the place? If it's not in ferry range of any of your existing bases, it's going to be really aggravating to capture an airfield and realize you can't run in fighters.

[Canoerebel]

[font="times new roman"]Red Planet Roster[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I.                   Carrier Fleet:[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]a.       Six CV TFs (each with a CV, CVL, and BB) totaling 98 ships.[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b.      Combat TF (BBs Washington and Massachusetts, 4 CLs, 10 DDs)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]       [/font]
[font="times new roman"]II.                Invasion Protection[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]a.       Combat TF 1136 (BBs Maryland and Pennsylvania, CA, 3 CL,  5 DD)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b.      Combat TF 1013 (BB Mississippi, CA, 3 CL, 10 DD)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]c.       Escort carrier TF 1199 (15 ships include 3 CVEs, BB California, CA)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]III.             Troop Transports[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]a.       TF 1252 (11 ships) - 27th Division [/font]
[font="times new roman"]b.      TF 1011 (12) – 12 air squadrons (see information below)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]c.       TF 1026  (15) – 37th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]d.      TF 1066 (9) – 9 air squadrons (see information below)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]e.       TF 1151 (14) – 503rd Parachute Regiment[/font]
[font="times new roman"]f.       TF 1157 (13) – 7th Division; part 3rd U.S.M.C. Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]g.      TF 1213 (8) – 54th Aviation Regiment[/font]
[font="times new roman"]h.      TF 1219 (8) – 73rd Aviation Regiment[/font]
[font="times new roman"]i.        TF 1223 (9) – 71st Aviation Regiment[/font]
[font="times new roman"]j.        TF 1224 (14) – 1st US Cav. Division, 24th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]k.      TF 1226 (13, include CVE Long Island) – 5th Fleet HQ, 6th Army HQ[/font]
[font="times new roman"]l.        TF 1227 (12) – I Amphibious HQ, 5th Air Force HQ[/font]
[font="times new roman"]m.    TF 1229 (16) – 754 Tanks, 640 Anti-Tanks, 3rd Marine CD[/font]
[font="times new roman"]n.      TF 1234 (15) – 37, 38, 40 Seabees[/font]
[font="times new roman"]o.      TF 1245 (19) – 19th Combat Engineers, 30th FA, 64/97/98 Coastal AA[/font]
[font="times new roman"]p.      TF 1253 (25) – 3rd US Marine Division (loaded on LSTs)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]q.      TF 1254 (18) – 25th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]r.        TF 1256 (27) – 147th RCT (loaded on LCIs)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]s.       TF 1258 (6) – 1st Marine Paratroops, 3rd Raiders, 4th Raiders[/font]
[font="times new roman"]t.        TF 1259 (5) – 72nd Base Force[/font]
[font="times new roman"]u.      TF 1261 (6) – 33rd Naval Base Force[/font]
[font="times new roman"]v.      TF 1052 (10) – 43rd Division (part)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]w.    TF 1222 (4) – 821 and 822 Engineering Aviation Bat.[/font]
[font="times new roman"]x.      TF 1043 (4) – 43rd Division (part)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]y.      TF 1212 (3) – 3rd Marine Paratroops[/font]
[font="times new roman"]z.       TF 1160 (11) – 128th, 129th Base Forces; 11th Marine CD, 632 Tank Destroyer[/font]
[font="times new roman"]aa.   TF 1064 (6) – 4th Marine Paratroops loaded on fast transport[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]IV.             Supply Transports[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]a.       TF 1051 (16) 115,200 supplies[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b.      TF 1133 (14)  93,600 supplies[/font]
[font="times new roman"]c.       TF 1215 (12)  30,00 supplies and 2 air squadrons (see below)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]d.      TF 1207 (9) – 64,800 supplies[/font]
[font="times new roman"]e.       TF 1257 (10) – 72,000 supplies[/font]
[font="times new roman"]f.       TF 1140 (7) – 13,200 supplies[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]V.                Fuel Transports[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]a.       TF 1170 (11) 132,000 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b.      TF 1211 (10) 120,000 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"]c.       TF 1177 (20) 240,000 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]VI.             Replenishment[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]a.       TF 1022 (9 ships including CVE Breton) – 82,000 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b.      TF 1056 (7 including CVEs Altamaha & Copahee) – 94,500 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"]c.       TF 1216 (3) – 27,000 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"]d.      TF 1042 (9, includes CVE Prince William) – 18,000 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"]e.       TF 1197 (6) – 94,500 fuel[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]VII.          Auxiliary TFs[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]a.       TF 1039 (7) – minesweepers[/font]
[font="times new roman"]b.      TF 1095 (6) – ASW[/font]
[font="times new roman"]c.       TF 1035 (17) – 4 AR, AS, AV, AE, etc.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]641 Ships total[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Air Squadrons transported:[/font]
[font="times new roman"][/font] 
[font="times new roman"]-          SBD – 5[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Hellcat – 1[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Corsair – 4[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          B-24 – 2 (96 bombers)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          B-17 – 1 (24 bombers)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          PBY – 2[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          P-47 – 2 (one a 72-plane squadron)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Dakota – 4 (three 64 plane, one 16 plane)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          B-25 – 1 (64 bombers)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ground Troops Transported[/font]

[font="times new roman"]-          27th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          37th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          7th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          3rd USMC Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          1st US Cav. Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          24th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          25th Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          43rd Division[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          503 Parachute Regiment[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          147th RCT[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Marine Paratroops – 1st, 3rd, 4th[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Marine Raiders – 3rd, 4th[/font]
[font="times new roman"]  [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          754th Tank Regiment[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Anti-Tank – 632 and 640[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          19th Combat Engineers[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          30th Field Artillery Regiment[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Marine CD – 3rd, 11th[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Coastal AA – 64th, 97th, 98th[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Aviation Regiments – 54th, 71st, 73rd[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          72nd Base Force[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          33rd Naval Base Force[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          128th Base Force[/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          129th Base Force[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          HQ – 5th Fleet, 6th Army, I Amphibious, 5th Air Force[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Seabees – 37th, 38th, 40th[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]-          Engineering Aviation Battalions – 821 and 822[/font]

[Canoerebel]

8/8/43 to 8/10/43
 
Radio Silence:  Remains in Effect.
 
Operation Red Planet:  The transport and auxiliary TFs will arrive and refuel at Midway tomorrow.  The carrier TFs lag behind and will near Laysan Island tomorrow.  Thus far no sign of Jap detection. In fact, it's quite the opposite.  For awhile there were many Jap subs in the Hawaiian and Midway area, but the Japs seemed to vacate the premises a week or two ago.  Does John think I'm heading somewhere else, or is this just wishful thinking on my part.  My picket AKs are still positioned some 600 to 800 miles west of Midway and haven't been molested.  The invasion fleet will enter "Indian Country" (beyond LR CAP from Midway) about three days after leaving that last Allied refuge.
 
Operation Violet Planet:  The Royal Navy's scaled down version of Red Planet will finish loading at Colombo tomorrow and then head SE very slowly.  I don't want to spring her until about the time the Japs discover the Red Planet force.  Middle or eastern Sumatra is the likely target.
 
Australia:  Quiet, though the Allies are gathering a large force at the crossroads west of Sydney.  This group will move west toward Broken Hill.  Again, the timing is meant to create a hot spot at about the same time Red Planet dawns on the Japs.
 
Burma:  After another miserable 2:1 attack on the Chinese troops a hex north of Pisanoluke, the Japs seem to be pulling into that refuge.  That attack took place on the 8th and cost the Japs 3080/41/5 to 73/2.
 
Vietnam:  The Chinese are pulling back from Hanoi.  They just weren't getting anywhere, there was a chance they could be cut off, and I have a new idea (the fourth in a series of ideas that thus far have accomplished zilch).
 
China:  Nine Jap divisions showed up at Wuchow.  Some of my Chinese units launched a deliberate attack early on, when the first few Jap divisions arrived, but it failed.  I didn't try another, because now the Japs are present in about equal numbers.  But I don't think the Japs have a prayer here given the nine forts.  Even if there were an opportunity, the Chinese have plenty of reinforcements close by.  Further north, near Yenen, the Japs outnumber the Chinese in that city, but have divided forces and sent a pretty big contingent down the road that leads into a bend in the river.  From there, the Japs will have to cross the river.  They have about six hexes to choose from; most of them are occupied by Chinese units.  I still don't know what will happen here, but I'm glad John didn't concentrate at Yenen; had he done so I would have already pulled back to Sian.
 
More Red Planet Stuff:  During the period of radio silence on my AAR, I have received many PMs from players wishing me best of luck, or telling me I'm toast, or asking me if I've remembered this or that.  Here was an email I sent to one person, commenting on a number of items:
 
[font=arial]1.  Luzon will be the "main" theater of operations.  Obviously, John will be
on the ropes if the Allies take control of enough of the island to control the
air and the seas. All bombers and fighters based in CBA are available.  I
certainly plan on transferring P-38s, B-24s, and B-17s to Luzon.

2.  I'm bringing all my BBs.  John has thus far lost three in the game.  I'm
worried about CA numbers.  Prior to the landings, I'll probably reconfigure my
TFs to boost the power of the combat TFs that will accompany the invasion TFs.

3.  Circumstances will dictate point of no return.  A big carrier engagement
could affect things.  The "key point" for the Allies will come when they near
Iwo Jima.  At that point I'll have to choose between Luzon, Iwo, and Hokkaido
(Luzon being my first choice).  I pretty much consider the entire operation to
be a "point of no return" mission.  In order to have a chance in this game, I
have to establish a good base near Japan.  So this goes forward unless I
suffer a catastrophic carrier-battle loss.

4. I have 8 infantry/Marine divisions, 2 RCTs, plus Raiders and paratroops. 
So call it the equivalent of 9 divisions.  The plan is to establish such a
huge presence, and to control the air so that it is very difficult or impossible
for John to bring in enough reinforcements to contest control of the island. 
That's why I'm bringing so many base forces. If I fail in controlling the air
and/or limiting Jap ship access to the island, I fail entirely. 

4.  I lost a ton of MSWs in the Midway operation.  I have alot more of them
embedded in transport TFs, but not enough to handle a heavily mined hex.  This
operation is supposed to be a surprise and shouldn't encounter tons of mines. 
If I do, my opponent is simply a smarter player that I am.

It is a powerful, massive force.  John is a very capable, astute opponent. 
Something's going to happen, that's for sure.
[/font]
 
 

[Canoerebel]

8/11/43 and 8/12/43
 
Red Planet:  The transports have refueled and moved NNW of Midway and the carriers will arrive at Midway tomorrow to refuel (see map below).  The area remains oddly devoid of Japanese ships and subs.

Decisions:  If the invasion force approaches Iwo and a carrier battle has yet to occur, I'll have some tough decisions to make.  If I think my fleet is between Iwo and the KB, it will be tempting to keep it that way and to move on Iwo or even Hokkaido (because the least desireable scenario is for my force to face a combination of the KB and LBA when heading into Luzon).  But Luzon is the best target for the long-term success of the Allied offensive.  Another factor will be whether strikes by LBA at Iwo (and possibly Marcus succeed in forcing the Allies to use up some carrier-based sorties.  IF so, I'll be more tempted to strike quickly.  If not, I'll feel better about continuing more deeply into Japanese waters.

Violet Planet:  This invasion fleet has left Colombo, but will make very slow speed toward Sumatra - I don't want to strike to early.

Jap Viewpoint:  John knows I have to go on the offensive, and yesterday.  Where does he expect me to hit?  There are so many "good" targets now that it must seem somewhat daunting to him to adequately defend them all (Iwo, Marcus, Wake, the Marshalls, the Societies, Pago Pago, Suva, New Caledonia, Australia; and, from the west, Sumatra and Java).   There haven't been any signs of the Jap KB lately.  What's John doing?  How did he react, if at all, to the defeat of his Mini-KB in the Indian Ocean?  I confess I don't have any idea, so that any guesses I offer will be pure speculation.

China:  The Japs tried a deliberate attack at Wuchow on the 11th, losing 12,030/142/4 to 2705/51.  I think John will give up on Wuchow.  He's still maneuvering forces around and near the Chinese strongholds of Yenen/Sian/Honan, so I expect him to try more there.

[Canoerebel]

8/13/43 and 8/14/43
 
Red Planet:  My ships are entering Indian Country, so I'm beginning to get nervous.  The transports were 420 miles west of Midway on the 14th, with the CVs trailing.  Tomorrow, the transports will take station at the 540 mile mark so that the carriers can rendezvous.  A Jap patrol craft, probably from Marcus Island, spotted my southern-most picket AK, so John will at the least be curious, at the worst he'll draw clever deductions.  The best news was that a Mini-KB launched on a lone AK north of Papete, sinking her but giving me immense relief to know that at least one Jap CV is far out of position.  The carrier launched 24 Vals, 18 Kates, and 11 Zeros.

Violet Planet:  With the Japs sighting that Red Planet picket ship, things may begin to happen, so the Royal Navy invasion force has increased speed and will close on southern Sumatra.

Noise:  Mock invasion fleets departed Auckland and Melbourne, the former making for Noumea, the latter for Adelaide.  I hope that Jap recon craft will soon site these.

The Japs:  What are they doing?  I would have expected John to try to keep careful tabs on US CVs following Midway, and to likewise flood CenPac with subs and perhaps some picket ships of his own.  But the Japs are nowhere to be seen at the moment - at least not where I would have expected them, patrolling the waters near and to the west and south of Midway.  This is really odd.  I can only think of three possibilities:

1)  John knows exactly what I'm doing, where I am, and where I'm going.

2)  John has totally missed the mark and thinks the Allies are heading to the Marshalls, Societies, or somewhere else.

3)  John knows that his CenPac and SoPac island outposts cannot be held against any overwhelming Allied invasion force, so he's hoping for some Midway like attrition battles; meanwhile, he's mounting a surprise offensive of his own and needs the KB.  If that's the case (and I think this highly unlikely), my money would be on the Indian Ocean, where he might (might, I stress) have been ticked off enough about the Battle of the Maldives Island that he has blood lust and has sent the KB to deal with the Royal Navy.  Boy, that would be a mistake on his part even if he sank the entire Royal Navy ships engaged in Violet Planet.

To summarize, I'm really mystified by the lack of Japanese assets west of Midway.

Edit: Wait a minute. What does the presence of a Mini-KB down near the Societies tell me? It tells me that John is comfortable having a small carrier force in an exposed position (the Battle of Midway happened weeks ago, so my CVs would have had plenty of time to get down there). This has to mean he knows my CVs aren't in the vicinity, but I've seen no Ops reports of him sighting my CVs. So where does he get that comfort level? Also, wouldn't he want to consolidate all his CVs to face the threat posed by the Allied CVs? Yet he hasn't. This leads me to believe that options 1 or 3 listed above are the only explanations. There should be absolutely know way John could know I was heading to Iwo, Hokkaido, or Luzon. Not a single unit prepped for those targets (I decided to rely purely on surprise - all my units are preppred for places like Marcus or Eniwetok). All of this puzzles me greatly.

[Canoerebel]

8/15/43 and 8/16/43

Radio Silence: Remains in effect, but not much longer.

Red Planet: On the 16th, the carrier TFs and most of the invasion TFs were 720 miles west of Midway and encountered a line of Japanese picket ships (apparently the Allied picket ships passed through the Japanese line without either side detecting the other). The US carriers launched a strike force of 126 Hellcats and 34 SBDs that managed to sink AP Bokuyo Maru. As a result, the US CVs used 2% of mission sorties. So John now knows the location of the US carriers and likely deduces that this is the "real thing." I therefore doubt that the "noise" I was creating near Noumea and Adelaide will have much effect. The US force will continue steaming west, posing an immediate threat to Marcus Island and an increasing threat to Iwo Jima. Let's see how John responds. (Picket ships are a legit way to strive for early warning, but I hope John doesn't resort to posting lone ships all over the place to incite massive carrier-based strikes in order to reduce my available mission sorties; I don't think he will).

SigInt over the past few days has revealed 151st Base Force at Cagayan (the 2nd base force identified there), 10th Tank Regiment at Manila, and 7th Air Division at Clark Field.

Violet Planet: The Sumatra invasion force isn't in position yet, but I'm moving them as fast as I can.

[Canoerebel]

8/17/43
 
Radio Silence:  Radio silence may be broken now.  Dear Reader, you are once again invited to comment in the AAR if you wish to do so.
 
Red Planet:  Another day, two more picket ships sunk (and one of my CV TF's is down to 88% mission sorties now; the rest range from 96 to 97%).  John's email message:  "Well--you are all dressed up to party...  Marcus?  Iwo Jima??  You are already past Wake...This time you will find a hot reaction.  I let Midway fall but will fight here.  BANZAI!"  He has deduced that this is the "real thing," and I think he knows more than he lets on.  Cursor intel just revealed that he has 10 units at Legaspi, 4 at Nada, 8 at Manila, and 3 at Clark Field.  He also has 3 units at Aparri and 1 each at Bataan and the airbase south of Aparri (based upon previous cursor intel).  This guy is WAY ahead of me.
 
I have no idea where the KB is at the moment.  Since CVL Chitose was torpedoed near Truk a few days ago, the only guess I can make is that the KB is in that vicinity (or around Wake or Marcus, since Chitose was 4 hexes north of Truk).  It's somewhat tempting to send my transports north toward Hokkaido (if my KB guess was right, they would have several days of sailing without threat from LBA) while my CVs hung around and dealt with anything John sent.  (As I just typed that, I liked it even better).
 
My plan had been (and may still be) to move north of Marcus, zagging that way to see if I can entice the KB into battle, and then slipping on west to threaten Iwo.  Then, if my CVs and mission sorties were in good shape, I would likely head to Luzon.  If I had cold feet or if mission sorties were beginning to run too low for comfort, I would proceed to Iwo.
 
So, as of this moment, I truly do not know whether I'll move on Luzon, Iwo, or Hokkaido.
 
Violet Planet:  The Royal Navy invasion force is steaming at full speed, but won't make Sumatra for several more days.
 
New Zealand/Australia:  An Australian army is advancing from Sydney toward Broken Hill.  It should arrive in about three days.  While the main show is up near Iwo and over at Sumatra, I'll use the diversion to send some much-needed reinforcements to New Zealand.
 
China:  John's troops are still at Wuchow and still without a prayer.  He has pulled back his units that had advanced to the big bend in the river between Sian and Yenen.  I don't know if he'll send these guys to Yenen or not.  But I have the interior lines and can reinforce Yenen fairly easily now. 

[Canoerebel]

8/18/43 and 8/19/43
 
Red Planet:  The invasion fleet continues to sail west without interference from major Jap assets.  I think I'm getting cranky due to the tension.   Scattered Jap merchant ships have repeatedly shown up near my CVs, which have accordingly launched massive strikes way beyond the bounds of common sense.  But I can't stand down my aircraft due to the possibility the KB might show up.  Several turns ago I sent John an email to clarify that we agree that the use of picket ships is fine, but that it would not be okay to send out lots of merchants to soak off mission sorties (since the carriers have to remain on full alert and there is no means within the game to distinguish between minor threats - picket AKs - and a major threat like the KB).  John agreed, but still Jap merchant ships are taking similar courses.  I've since raised the matter several more times.  John says he had a huge convoy on the way home to Japan from somewhere far to the SE and that he ordered it to scatter and its just a coincidence that a number of them happen to be on the same course as my CVs.  Even this perplexes me, because I can't envision a sensible sea lane for merchant traffic out here now that Midway is in my hands.  So, one of my CV TFs is now down to 78% mission sorties (the others are mostly around 90%).  This is very frustrating.  Nonetheless, the invasion fleet will continue west another turn and then juke toward Marcus.  We'll see what happens.  (Sallys from Marcus sortied against my middle picket ship, doing severe damage, but the ship has a chance of making it home).

Violet Planet:  The Sumatra invasion force should arrive near shore in about three or four days.  There probably won't be much left there.

Burma:  For the first time in weeks, Allied bombers sortied en masse, hitting the airfield at Moulmein, this time with good effect.  The Japs lost 53 aircraft, the Allies 24.  I've shifted some ground units into Rangoon from the hex to the north and I'll try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  John has considerably weakened his Rangoon garrison; I hope he's weakened it enough that he'll be concerned about the new numbers here.

China:  I think a quiet spell is descending on this theater for awhile.

[Q-Ball]

What do you have going into Sumatra? You almost certainly have some time to get established, but what are you bringing in terms of troops, base forces, and air forces?

Where do you intend to land there? On the tip, like Sabang, or further south, like Padang?

PS, reading John's AAR, he is telling the truth about that convoy. They were in the wrong place at the wrong time, and scattered.

What do you call this Gambit, the Hail Mary?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

What do you have going into Sumatra? You almost certainly have some time to get established, but what are you bringing in terms of troops, base forces, and air forces?

Where do you intend to land there? On the tip, like Sabang, or further south, like Padang?

PS, reading John's AAR, he is telling the truth about that convoy. They were in the wrong place at the wrong time, and scattered.

What do you call this Gambit, the Hail Mary?

The invasion fleet will approach Padang or possibly eastern Sumatra.

Which gambit, my invasion effort or his fortuitous scattering of ships?

I think and hope he's convinced that either Marcus or Iwo Jim is the target. I'll do my best to reinforce that notion. I would like a carrier engagement while I still have plenty of sorties available. If I begin running low, I don't know what I'll do. I can't imagine simply retreating at this point. Yikes.

We've been playing this game since last October; countless hours and effort. Too much for my good, I think. I need to relax.