AAR Jon Pyle (Union) vs Joel Billings (Confederate) - Confederate POV

[Joel Billings]

I was prepared for one army in Virginia to get initiative, but with both armies moving, my forces were spread thin. Had Sherman not made his command role, I could have fought him to a stalemate in the Wilderness and force him to retreat. By committing all his forces, he was able to move me back to Richmond. That's bad for several reasons. First, the loss of the battle was a 30 point Political swing versus winning it. At this point that's huge. Second, Union forces are now adjacent to Richmond and I will have a harder time keeping units unspotted. The good news was Petersburg, where Jackson not only won, but reached the point where his -1 Army Modifier was eliminated. This means, he is now a 4 attack/4 defense leader when in Army Command, the best possible and equal to Lee. He was also promoted and now has the maximum 24 Command Rating, also equal to Lee. Beauregard can reach this with one more victory (he's currently a 4 attack, 3 defense leader with a 21 Command Rating). Had he won in Fredericksburg he would have become a 4 attack/4 defense leader with a 22 or 23 Command Rating. Jackson is now in Richmond, and Beauregard is now in Petersburg.

I launched a small attack to attempt to retake Franklin, West Virginia. Union leaders should have roughly the following chances of getting initiative:

Sherman (Fredericksburg) - 19%
Lyon (Norfolk) - 36%
Grant (Macon) - 32%
Sheridan (Tupelo) - 38%

Depending on whether their Theatre Commander's get initiative (a 44% chance these days for the Union TC's), these numbers will be higher or lower, but these are the overall "average" chance of initiative for each leader.

This means the Union player should get 1, or maybe 2 leaders that they can attack with. Confederate forces are stretched.

The Confederate Political score is now 905. Next turn I will start to suffer penalties in recruiting due to the low Political rating (it's dropping 100 per turn automatically).

[PyleDriver]

January's weather brought a few actions. Mitchell's Cav overran Huntville AL to clear the CSA of all troops west of the TN river. Bufords Cav also retook New Kent following retreating confederate forces. Hill counter attacked into Franklin WV, and overcame a small Union force there...This leaves the CSA below 800, at 798. Recuitments for them will be harder each month now...Sheridan is looking for Johnston's army now, and moved 70,000 troops and 240 guns on Jackson MS. Grant took command of the army in Norfolk VA now, and Leon went to Macom GA. Over 220,000+ Union troops and over 900 guns are in VA now, to face Beauregard and Jackson. Leon has 65,000+ troops and 320 guns outside Atlanta.

[8D]
Jon

[Joel Billings]

Sheridan getting initiative was a tough break for the Confederacy in the sense that he was matched up against Joe Johnston, the Confederates weakest Army Commander. Given winter conditions, not all nearby troops were able to respond to Johnston's call for help. Sheridan was able to commit all of his 73,000 men and Johnston's 47,000 were not enough to hold Jackson. Johnston withdrew east to Meridian. Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas (what's left of them) are now open to attack. The forts of Vicksburg and Baton Rouge will not hold against a determined ground attack. At least we were able to retake Franklin, West Virginia.

The Confederate political score is now 774. It will drop another 460 points during the next 5 turns. The Union still needs to knock me down by a little over 300 additional political points.

[Joel Billings]

The recent battle in Jackson cost the Confederates 9400 men and 60 guns versus Union losses of 10700 and 20 guns. Of about 20,000 troops in nearby areas that were not with Johnston, only about 1/3 were able to reach the battle area due to lack of initiative caused in large part to it being winter. The Confederates probably needed 10,000 more troops in Jackson to have been able to win the battle given Sheridan's commitment of all available forces. Sheridan's command rating is now 17, which combined with his 4 attack rating and 4 infantry skill makes him a powerful force. The only good news out of Jackson was the death of John Reynolds, the best Union Corps commander in Sheridan's army. In winter without a depot, Sheridan's chance for initiative in February is about 20%. Hopefully his army won't be able to move out in force in February. The question for the Union is where to move him next. Should he move south and west, taking Vicksburg and driving on New Orleans, or should he turn east and follow Johnston's retreating army. Hopefully he won't have the option in February.

Confederate recruiting is terrible now. Manpower is only declining, and I'm guessing I'm outnumbered by close to 3 to 1.

A small footnote. For the past year, Franklin Buchanan has been roaming the seas in a commerce raider. Back around November, it was reported that Buchanan's raider had damaged a Union Cruiser. Amazingly enough, in January Buchanan did it again. Not only that, but he managed to capture and bring back to the Confederacy 4 supplies while depriving the Union of 8 supply points in overseas trade. Buchanan's ship has been credited with 6 successes, one short of Josiah Tattnall's Confederate record of 7 in this game, and it now is listed with two experience stars. I have a feeling that half the Union navy is out looking for Buchanan's ship. It's nice to see the Confederate Navy still having an impact, however small.

[Joel Billings]

Jon just pointed out to me that the Confederates will lose 100 political points in July before the game will end due to the time limit. I confirmed that this should be the case, so that means I'll be losing 560 points instead of 460 points before the game ends. The Union only needs to drop me a little over 200 PPs to win. Ouch!

[Joel Billings]

In February, Sheridan and Lyon got initiative. McClellan and his two army commanders, Grant and Sherman, did not get initiative, so there was no action in Virginia.

Sheridan overran Natchez with a large part of his army, and then built depots. This will help him keep initiative to move on to attack New Orleans and Baton Rouge. He detached 12,000 men to attack Vicksburg, but the attack was rebuffed by the small Vicksburg garrison.

Lyon assaulted Atlanta with 60,000 men and 320 guns. Beauregard, met this attack with 54,000 men an 200 guns and decisively defeated it. Union losses were 14500/40 guns while Confederate losses were 10600/40 guns. The attrition is certainly painful, but I was happy to take the 20 Political points earned by the strategic victory. In addition, Beauregard having won his 11th major victory of the war had his defense rating improve to 4. The matchup in Army leaders is as follows:

Confederate vs Union Army leaders
(attack-defense-infantry skill/Command Rating)
Jackson 4-4-4/24 --- Sherman 3-3-4/19
Lee 4-4-4/24 --- Grant 4-3-4/19
Beauregard 4-4-4/21 --- Lyon 3-3-3/14
J. Johnston 2-3-4/18 --- Sheridan 4-3-4/17

The Confederate Political score is 685. I'm still going to lose 468 points automatically, so I can only lose another 216 points. Lightly defended New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Vicksburg, along with a few other minor areas I can't defend are worth 77 points.

[PyleDriver]

After Sherdians victory in Jackson MS, he regained initiative and continued his attacks. With the loss of Reynolds, Sherdian chose not to pursue Johnstons army. Sherdian then split his command, sending Osterhaus's corps of 12,000 to Vicksburg with 140 guns. Davis's 3 gunboat fleets moved off shore to aid in the attack. He then lead the attack towards New Orleans with a corps and a division and overran Natchez. The rail line was intact, and other forces were moved in and depots were built. This puts Sheridan in a postion to strike NO next month. Farragut with his 7 fleets (5 ironclad) are poised to aid in the attack...Leon's army got initiative also, but appears out numbered if Hardee and Taylor's corps on Bearegards flanks get initiative. Lincoln ordered the attack on Atlanta once agian hoping the winter weather would slow there response...Grant and Sherman spent Febuary being resupplied and reenforced...

[8D]
Jon

[PyleDriver]

Joel, you beat me to the post agian...lol...

[8D]
Jon

Addition notes...I knew I would lose in Atlanta, but 10,000 CSA troop losses will be very hard to replace now. With Jackson and Nachez MS, I expect 8,000 black recruits in the next 2 months, plus I'll replace my losses. I also will recieve 20,000 BR's the next 2 months from other areas...This may go down to the last month of the game...I have 4 months to make this happen...I really needed Vicksburg, to maintain supply to Sheridans army via the MS river, now I have to attack in 2 directions. I'm looking at Johnstons army to attack my flank also...

[PyleDriver]

March turned warm, and the Union armys are moving agian. Sheridan is attacking New Orleans with 32,000 men and 80 guns. Reports are that only a few trained units and 12,000 militia are defending. It's a huge prize 37 pp's. Sherman is on the move also, Parke's corps of 24.000 suported by Tillsons 80 guns swung west into Winchester 22 pp's. To block a responce on this action Sherman moved the rest of his army (96,000 strong with 400 guns) into Gordonsville, just west of Richmond. Grant didn't get initiative so he was ordered to move to Marlboro SC with 80,000 men and 400 guns. This move is a huge threat on Wilmington 42 pp's. This move will force Lee's army to move south and not support Jackson's army agianst Sherman. 45,000 men remain in Norfolk to counter any attack there. Leon got initiative, but after the last bloody battle chose to hold Beauregard in check in Macom/Atlanta. Schofield was transfered to Grants command from Leon, one of the Unions best, to aid Meade and Pope. Theres only 1 rail line into Wilmington, thus 12 units (24,000 troops). If Lee doesn't get initiative, and Grant does, look out. Either way Sherman will be heads up agiant Jackson. I need to commit twice the men to battle now to win them agianst the souths leadership. If Jackson wins this one, it may be over. Riots have started in the north to end this war. Lincoln needs to end this one way or another...

[8D]
Jon

[Erik Rutins]

Could one of you post an updated map please? [&o]

[PyleDriver]

Early battle reports are out. Shermans swing to the west of Richmond came off as planned. Jackson and Lee didn't get initiative and couldn't react in force. Both Gordonsville and Winchester were taken 29 pp's. This opens up the left flank into VA. The rest of the Shenandoah valley is wide open now. Sheridan's army took NO in force, militia there was moblized earlier and was taken easy 37 pp's. The Union has no idea at this point how the CSA will counter Grants move to SC. Reports show that the south lost another 16,000 men and 70 guns. Losses were very even. The north got another 22,000 recruits this month, 18,000 were black...The Union needs 141 pp's in the next 3 months, another photo finish...lol...Same bat time, same bat channel...lol...Thats for the old guys, the young ones have a question mark on that one...

[8D]
Jon

[Joel Billings]

The weather must have let me down this winter. During February and March 5 Union Army Commanders got initiative and were able to attack. The average should have been about 2.6. So much for winter slowing the Union. Unfortunately, two of my best leaders, Lee and Jackson let me down at the worst time. In March, with Sherman heading south to the west of Richmond, neither Lee nor Jackson got initiative (68% chance that at least one would get initiative). Each must have thought the other was going to take care of Sherman's army. In the end, Lee marched out to meet Sherman, but without initiative, Lee was unable to work his normal miracles. Although the Union army suffered slightly higher losses, Lee was outmaneuvered and forced to retreat from Gordonsville. Parke's corps forced Albert Sydney Johnston to retreat his small force from Winchester to Staunton. With the Union army between Lee and AS Johnston, Staunton will likely fall in the coming months.

Although Vicksburg and Baton Rouge continue to hold out, if Sheridan gets initiative, these bastions will fall and the total loss of Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas will not be far behind. The map below shows the situation at the beginning of the Confederate movement phase. None of the four Confederate generals got initiative in March, so I cannot launch any counterattacks (on average 1.6 leaders would have initiative).

The Confederate Political score now is 517. With the automatic loss of 376 points over the next 4 months, I now have only 141 points I can yield and still win. I really needed to hold Gordonsville as winning the battle would have gained me a net gain of 37 PPs and would have kept Staunton in range of support. Could it be that the great Confederate Army Commanders will be out-generaled? Say it ain't so.

[lancer]

Goodaye,

Probably a stupid question but in the screenshot pictured above are the text indicators for the various commanders and armies generated by the game itself or have they been added by the PBEM'ers for the purposes of explanation?

Cheers,
Lancer

[GShock]

Added to show you some more details. Both players evidently already know the size of the respective enemy forces. [8D]

[Joel Billings]

The overall numbers are an estimate I'm making of Union forces based on various factors. I do not know the actual number. The armies have been well scouted by my Cav so I know how many troops are there, or at least within a small range how many are in each army.

[PyleDriver]

Winter makes it very hard to move troops, so they get scouted well. If a army commander gets initiative they can only move 1 area (normally) away durning the winter and their very hard to hide. I have only 3 months left in our game to get 141 pp's, and don't have time to hide anymore. Power vs power, 1 SV (stratigic victory 20 pp's) by the south and I will lose. The 42 pp's in Wilmington NC may be this war, cause Grant is going in...

[8D]
Jon

[PyleDriver]

I will add Grant hasn't got initiative since Aug of 64, he's killing me. Whiskey is now cut off to him. I need him to move in April before the south can react. If it goes to May I will have to change my plans...Sherman and Sheridan are keeping me in this one. Sheridan in New Orleans is out of postion, and Shermans best leader (Parke) is not attached to his command. I need another hat trick to win this one, but the fat lady hasn't sung yet...

[8D]
Jon

[Crimguy]

Think the devs might need to adjust their initiative calculations for Grant? He wasn't a perfect general by a long shot, but initiative was certainly something he had in spades.  Perhaps only Lee was his equal in getting his troops moving on the enemy.

[PyleDriver]

I think the equations are good, most games he's on the move 5-6 out of 12 months. It's just how the game is structured (luck of the Irish). Sheridan and Sherman got happy during the winter, you just never know who gets initiative, and there goes the best laid plans...lol...Grant has good supply and is under the command of his TC (McClellan) this turn (6 areas away), Joel knows the odds, but there very high that Wilmington will be assaulted in April, and he's sweating this one...

[8D]
Jon

[GShock]

Could you assess the PP lost due to commerce raiders so far? I think that bleeding is one of the factors any union player would underestimate...yet they do make the difference in the end.