Rebels (Canoerebel) vs. Redcoats (Miller) - Big B 192

[ny59giants]

I would read the threads in the "Must Read Thread" section on Russia.

tm.asp?m=1274014

One thing I do know is that you cannot allow you to be cut off from your supply source up north. I would do some research in the forum before you did too much in this theater.

Good Luck. [:)]

p.s. What house rule do you have about basing American and other Allied forces in Russia??

[Canoerebel]

3/13/44 to 4/3/44
 
Alot of game time has passed since I last updated this AAR. At first, I decided to wait until Naga (on Okinawa) fell to the Allies; when that was delayed, I put things off due to the activity in my other game.  There's been alot happening, though, so here is a general summary.
 
Okinawa:  Miller has done a masterful job of bogging me down here.  Despite my reinforcements, the Japs continue to hold and reinforce. When my reinforcements arrived, they fought some surface and air engagements with the Japs and I lost a number of transports and perhaps a few small warships, with some others moderately or severly damaged (CL Perth being the most serious, but it made port on Formosa).  I could bring in more units, but decided to wait until Manila falls when I'll have a ton of units available and can shift the full focus of my bombers to suppressing Jap air and ground units on Formosa and Okinawa (instead of regularly bombing the Jap troops at Manila).
 
Manila:  The Jap units are surrendering now.  Daily deliberate attacks over the past two weeks have decimated the Jap defenders.  For instance, on March 30 a 103:1 cost the Japs 10,263/2/6 to 1395/24/6.  I'm getting "Jap unit surrounded" messages now and the defenders are down to about 40k troops.  I think they will be wiped out in no more than three or four days.  I have well over 125 transports in port ready to load the strongest of these units.  They will probably head to Formosa first.
 
Formosa:  I hold the northern two ports and Miller holds Takao and Pescadores, but not in great numbers (the former about 25k troops, the latter about 10k).  Over the past few days, Miller mistook a large fleet of Allied CVs with reinforcement transports as heading for Formosa.  Desperate to stop this, he sent droves of "human shield" cargo ships flooding the sea between Formosa and China, with his CVs and combat ships following.  But my CVs were just sailing around in circles while I was awaiting the fall of Manila.  Over three or four days, Allied LBA and carrier-based air hammered scores of Jap ships, sinking more than 40 transports and small craft.  BB Musashi (spelling?) also took a torpedo and multiple bombs.  Jap LBA also took large losses.  All this bodes well for the Allied reinforcement of Formosa that should take place in a week or ten days (following the final clean up around Manila).
 
Burma:  50th Indian paratroops took a city near Phnom Penh and then the Brits air transports more units into that vicinity.  So now the Allies are present in strength at Moulmein, Bangkok, and near Phnom.  But I don't have enough troops at any one place to drive back the defenders.  I'm content right now with just creating pressure here.
 
China:  Quiet.  Chinese troops are beseiging Haiphong, which isn't strongly held.
 
Russia:  Miller indicated that he will launch his attack on the 10th.  I've agreed to keep all fighters at 20% CAP and to stand down bombers on turn one to reflect surprise.  I've had plenty of time to move the vast number of troops that begin at Irkutsk to various points.  I don't think Miller can accomplish much here.
 
Summary:  Once I wipe out the Japs at Manila, the Allies will have 275,000 troops available to commit to Formosa, Okinawa, and other points. I think the Japs are on the ropes, but there's no quit in Miller.

[Canoerebel]

4/4/44 and 4/5/44
 
Manila:  The last Jap troops at Manila surrendered on April 4.  There are no Japanese troops anywhere in the PI.  The Allies are already loading transports in Manila harbor - three or four divisions will head to Formosa and a couple are slated for Okinawa.  A bunch of Australian units prepped for Balikpan and Palau - they've been fully prepped for at least nine months, maybe year - will return to Darwin to rest and recoup losses.  Ultimately, they will indeed be shifted from the northern front to dealing with Palau, Bornea, and perhaps Java.  So now Aussies and Brits will handle the central and southern fronts and the U.S. will handle the northern front.
 
Formosa:  The Allies will make an important shift here - making the northernmost base on Formosa a big port and airfield base.  I'm going to land my reinforcement here, then all available troops will march on Takao.  Meantime, the Allied CVs, combat ships, and as many aircraft as possible will take position at this northern base.  They will be "at the front," which has risks, but it should also play havoc with Miller's ability to move troops in the area.
 
Okinawa:  I'll land additional reinforcements here as soon as I have that northern base at Formosa fully "staffed" (additional base forces).
 
U.S. Reinforcements:  Another massive reinforcement convoy has been gathering at Midway for weeks.  This one will include about 8 CVEs for air cover.  These troops are slated for Okinawa (and Formosa if necessary).  Back at San Francisco, new divisions are embarking on ships.  They are prepping for Nagasaki.  I don't know that I'll invade the HI yet, but "just in case."
 
Burma:  The Brits took another base near Phnom Penh (giving them three including Phnom), but the main battles are still at Bangkok and Moulmein.
 
China:  Quiet.

[ny59giants]

I'm glad to see your progress in this game. [;)]
John is pulling his hair out in your game. [:D] 
I'm just the economic advisor, so I leave military matters to him. [8|]

[Canoerebel]

 Yesterday afternoon I sent John the turn in which my troops will hit Tori Shima, but he didn't send anything back yet (usually he send me a turn in the late evening).  So I have no idea yet what became of the Tori Shima invasion, nor whether the KB or LBA from Tokyo struck.  The suspense is killing me.

[ny59giants]

I usually get one turn per day (usually the last) to make adjustment to the economy and route AK/TK TF for that part of the game. I sent it back to him after midnight last night, but he was still logged on here. So.... [&:]
 
I'm trying to get him to play Empire Ablaze (Nemo's mod) with me as the Japanese. [:D]  Plus, I'm using WitPTracker to monitor your game and "hopefully" once he installs it, get out of the "economic advisor" role.

[Canoerebel]

4/6/44 to 4/11/44
 
East China Sea:  With the fall of Manila, a large transport convoy formed to transport base forces, infantry, and other units, some to Formosa and others to Okinawa.  In a questionable bit of judgment, I split the TFs, sending the Formosa-bound troops to the northern-most port on that island, accompanied by a CVE TF and two combat TFs.  P-38s at this base were to provide most of the CAP.  I kept the carriers offshore another turn to give some base forces time to unload - the plan being to then transfer in plenty of fighters to provide CAP for the port.  I issued orders to my carrier-based air to seek naval targets first or to bomb the airfield on Nada, Okinawa second.
 
Miller marshalled most or all of his combat and carrier forces and sent them to a point a few hexes north of Formosa.  The carriers launched massive kamikazee strikes augmented by LBA kamikazes from Shanghai.  I didn't have adequate CAP to cover the port, but what I did have worked overtime.  On the day, the Japs would lose 908 aircraft (498 a2a; 309 flak; 85 on the ground, 16 ops) while the Allies lost 140 (most of these - 110 a2a - occurred in unescorted strikes vs. Miller's carriers plus the CAP battles over Formosa).  Enough kamikazees got through to sink CVE Corrigedor, a DE, 3 LSTs, and LCI and one AK.  A few other ships were damaged.  BBs Washington and Tennessee took multiple hits that did no damage to speak of.  (Yesterday, Miller lost 143 aircraft, mostly kamikazes; so that's more than 1000 aircraft in two days).
 
The base forces have landed at Formosa, so that northern airbase can now hold a full compliment of 350 aircraft (it's currently a level 7 airfield).  I've transferred in alot more fighters, a big B-24 unit, and my first B-29 Superfortress squadron (48 aircraft ordered to hit Tokyo's heavy industry tomorrow).  Infantry will continue to land on Formosa and I'll soon move on Takao.  I don't think I'll send the Nada reinforcements until I have the time and escorts to sweep mines.
 
SE Asia:  John sent 21st Division to Phnom Penh to try to recapture that city, but his troops have failed after successive days of a shock and a deliberate attack. 
 
Reinforcements:  A massive convoy left Midway about three days ago.  Most of these troops and supplies are heading to Nada (or possibly to Formosa).
 
Situation:  I don't know how Miller is situated to replace pilots and aircraft, but I'm assuming that losing aircraft in these numbers will cripple him.  I keep wondering if things will reach such a state that he will wave a white flag.  He's tenacious, though. 

[ny59giants]

With my growing knowledge of the Japanese economy, I would not go after his HI. Rather, but hit the factories for his most deadly fighters. If he is doing well with his economy, then he has a reserve of both HI and engines, but the point of the sword is his aircraft factories. The most deadly fighters will be the newest and probably he has no reserves of them built up and his replacement pool for that particular type will be low, especially after the last few days of combat. [:D]
 
Next, I would hit the "D" button and look for fighter still in R&D and have cannons (since I'm just as unfamilar as you on late war Japanese fighters, I would open a game as Japan just to see what the normal air production for Japan is to see what is coming and plan accordingly). Go after those factories next to ensure they don't get online anytime soon.
 
Good Luck!!

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ORIGINAL: ny59giants

With my growing knowledge of the Japanese economy, I would not go after his HI. Rather, but hit the factories for his most deadly fighters. If he is doing well with his economy, then he has a reserve of both HI and engines, but the point of the sword is his aircraft factories. The most deadly fighters will be the newest and probably he has no reserves of them built up and his replacement pool for that particular type will be low, especially after the last few days of combat. [:D]

Next, I would hit the "D" button and look for fighter still in R&D and have cannons (since I'm just as unfamilar as you on late war Japanese fighters, I would open a game as Japan just to see what the normal air production for Japan is to see what is coming and plan accordingly). Go after those factories next to ensure they don't get online anytime soon.

Good Luck!!

Those would be Frank (has huge R/D factories 300 iirc), Jack and George. Take out these and you've pretty much left him with zekes and oscars...

[Canoerebel]

4/12/44 to 5/5/44
 
Formosa:  It took awhile to transport the necessary troops from Manila to Formosa, but they finally made it and after a few assault Takao fell to the Allies on May 5.  All of Formosa (except Pescadores, which I think is an island offshore) belongs to the Allies now.  About half the troops involved in the attack are actually prepping for Naha, so I'm moving them back north where they will soon embark for Okinawa.  The balance of the troops will remain at Takao to eliminate the Jap defenders, which should take awhile.
 
Okinawa:  Miller reinforced Naha, so that it now holds 12 units some 75,000 strong, including three mixed brigades.  The Allied troops still have about one-third higher AV and are in good shape to hold on until reinforcements arrive.  In fact, Miller tried a rather disastrous deliberate attack in early May.  It turned out so badly that the Allies tried their own attack the following day, with losses about equal.  A huge reinforcement convoy is on the way from Midway and is perhaps ten days away.  That convoy along with the reinforcements currently on Formosa should give the Allies enough to eventually take this base.  In late April, the Allies sent a minesweeping TF to Naha in the company of a big combat TF protected by carrier-launched LRCAP.  Miller reacted "violently" to this move and committed some large combat TFs to oppose the minesweeping operation.  As a result, the Allies lost many smaller ships (DEs, MSWs, etc.) that were pretty valuable to the war effort, but the Japs lost two BBs (Kongo and Haruna) with other ships damaged.
 
Russia:  Miller renewed his invasion of Russia around April 11 or 12 (after the first one in late March was cancelled because of our house rule requiring notice of 30 days).  After a sharp battle, the Japs took Suchan (adjacent to Vladivostock) and then moved on Vlad with a huge army that came both from Suchan and from the land route to the west.  But the Russian army is even "huger."  I think the Russian AV at Vlad is 7600 while the Japs are nearing 5000.  I don't see how Miller can take this city.  Even if he managed to reduce the Russian defenses so that I became worried, I would simply send other Allied assets (troops and probably carriers) north from Formosa to lend a hand.  Miller is also attacking Petroplovosk and will soon take it.  His invasion of Okha ran into an infantry division air transported to the base, so he's having to bring in reinforcements.
 
Points:  With the fall of Takao, the Allied lead is about 8,500 points now.
 
Situation:  Barring a major Japanese victory at sea, the Allies pretty much go wherever they want now.  I'm pretty sure the CVs could circumnavigate Japan now, but I won't do that until Okinawa is in hand.  The Allies have three big B-29 groups now (one on Formosa, two on Luzon) and have just started working on Japanese industry.  4-E LBA raids from places like Chungking and Formosa have pretty much put all Jap ports in the danger zone (except for Singapore, Java, and a few other places way down south).  To be honest, I keep excpecting Miller to wave a white flag.  I'm not sure what hope there is now.  I don't say that out of arrogance, but rather ignorance at what the Japs might be capable of at this point in the game.
 
Once the Allies take Nada (and I'm guessing that will be in about a month), they will take a hard look at invading the Home Islands.  I have troops prepping for Nagasaki.
 
Down south, most of the Aussie and Brit forces that helped take Luzon are now at Darwin replenishing.  Within the month, the Allies will move on Palau and probably on Borneo.

[Canoerebel]

5/6/44 to 5/17/44
 
Burma/Thailand:  After a lengthy seige, Allied forces including British, Burmese, Indian, and Chinese troops captured Moulmein on May 14.  The Japs retreated toward Tavoy.  Most of the Allied units will follow, but a few depleted Chinese units will return to Rangoon to rest and replenish.  The next Allied objective in this region will likely be Bangkok.  The Japs have reinforced the army attempting to recapture Phnom Penh, but the Allies are following suit.
 
Formosa:  The Allies haven't vanquished the Japanese troops at Takao yet.  The enemy is making a stubborn last stand.
 
Okinawa:  The Allies are landing reinforcements fresh from the Formosa campaign.  The Allied army will attack tomorrow.  Most of the Allied CVs are patrolling just offshore.  Fuel is critically low in this region.
 
Reinforcement and Supply Convoy:  The big reinforcement convoy is between Iwo Jima and Pagan, and Miller has made a concerted effort to stop these TFs.  There have been many pitched battles with bloody results for both sides, but the Japs have lost more points in the process than the Allies (although you might not think so if you just took into consideration the CVEs lost).  First, several Jap carriers raided the convoy, but the CAP put up by the CVEs demolished the incoming fighters and bombers, which nevertheless badly damaged two CVEs.  A few turns later, Jap CVLs and CVEs combined with LBA from Iwo hit the force, badly damaging or sinking four or five CVEs, but the Japs lost CVL Ryujo and nearly 200 more aircraft.  The Japs also sent in a CA/CL combat TF, but it came out on the short end of a hard-fought battle.  A few Allied transports have been hit, but the convoy is in good shape and will be out of air range from Iwo in two or three more days.
 
Russia:  The Japs to Sovetskaya Gavan, but have bogged down at Ohka.  The Japs don't have a chance at Vladivostok.  The Soviets began attacking a few days ago and even at 0:1 odds dished out more than they took.  They'll rest and attack again (a process that should continue for the indefinite future).
 
Situation:  The Allies are nearly 10,000 points ahead now.  I think the Allies have enough troops on Okinawa to take Naha.  Once that is accomplished, the Allies will probably move on mainland Japan.  That's probably a month off.

[Canoerebel]

5/18/44 to 5/21/44
 
Okinawa:  The Allies took Naha on 5/19 after a successful 2:1 attack.  The defenders pulled back to Kadina, where they are welcome to take up residence.

Convoy:  Miller has done a fine job employing his aircraft and ships to strike the big convoy moving between Iwo and Pagan on the way to Formosa.  I think his torpedo bombers and kamikazes have picked off 6 or 8 CVEs now, plus damaging some combat and merchant ships.  But this is a massive convoy and it is now pulling away from the danger zone.

What's Next:  The Allied units at Nada are now prepping for various targets on the Home Island of Kyushu.  Most of the troops on the convoy transports have been prepping for Nagasaki for weeks, as are three or four divisions at Pearl Harbor.  I'm not quiet sure when this invasion will take place - probably within a month though.

Allied CVs:  The "big" Allied CV fleet continues to operate out of Formosa.  I will need it to cover the invasion of Kyushu, but I also need it to escort a bunch of empty transports between Iwo and Pagan so that those transports can head back to the West Coast for supplies.  I have far too many ships in the combat theater and not enough back home.  More Allied CVs are on the way, including two CVLs fresh from repairs in Australia, and CVs Bennington and Ticonderoga on the way to Pearl from Panama City.

Thailand:  The Jap defenders of Moulmein are in full retreat and followed closely by the Allied army.  Both are moving toward Tavoy.  This Jap army has taken so much punishment that it isn't capable of holding off the Allies any longer.  If I can get my troops to Tavoy in good order, that base should fall fairly quickly.

Formosa:  The isolated Jap defenders at Takao are taking lopsided losses now and should be wiped out soon.

Russia:  I'm not sure what Miller will do here.  He's resting his troops at Ohka and probably plans to bring reinforcements.  But his huge army (well over 200k troops) at Vladivostok don't have a chance of taking the city from the "huger" Russian army.  The Russians have to rest about a week after each attack, so it'll be three or four more days before the next effort.  Another large corps (AV 1000+) is on the way.

[Canoerebel]

5/22/44 to 5/28/44
 
The Big Invasion:  Having taken Naha, Okinawa (more than a week ago) and just having vanquished the hold-out Jap troops at Takao, Formosa, the Allies have completed the major conquests that were the focus for so long:  Philippines, Formosa, Okinawa (except Kadina, which I don't plan to take any time soon).  For the past days and weeks, the Allies have been prepping troops on Naha, Formosa, and Luzon for the Home Island of Kyushu, plus the troops in the big reinforcement convoy.  Many of the ships and troops are now converging on the two staging points (Naha and the base at the north tip of Formosa).  Cover will be provided by a big BB combat TF and at least eight carrier TFs (most of these comprised of a CV and CVL). This invasion will get underway in about one week.  I haven't reconned Kyushu yet because I didn't want to give my target away early, but I'll begin the process in a day or two.  Unless he's really loaded up the island with vast numbers, that's where I'm heading.
 
Miller tried loading up Kadina with kamikazes.  They hit the ships at Naha, scoring one hit on a CL and damaging some transports, but over two turns Miller lost more than 200 aircraft.  Then B-29s hit the airfield and Miller pulled out his aircraft.
 
Just to the East:  A few US regiments are prepping for Tori Shima and Chichi Jima.  The invasion reserve will be the Australian army, most of which is at Darwin (having transferred there after Luzon fell).  If the Aussies aren't needed on Kyusha, they will probably invade Palau, Yap, and Ulithi, and then move on to Iwo Jim.
 
Far to the West:  The Allied armor regiments have arrived at Tavoy and a big bombardment TF hits the base nightly.  The infantry and other units are about ten days away via the land route.  Transports at Rangoon will carry a big base force and some Chinese units to Tavoy.  Unless the Jap troops at Tavoy recover from the beatings they've recently taken, I expect this base to fall in less than two weeks.  Then it's on to Bangkok.
 
Far to the North:  The Japs took Ohka, but it took 70,000 troops and a month to do so.  However, that gives the Japs an oil producing base until I can spare the troops, ships, or bombers to shut it down.  The Russians continue attacking at Vladivstock about once a week, just missing out on 1:1 attacks, but inflicting more damage than they take.  This will be a long, drawn-out battle.  Miller is hammering the Russian airfields.

[Canoerebel]

5/29/44 to 6/2/44
 
The Big Invasion:  The carrier TFs left Formosa on the 2nd; the transport convoys will depart Naha on the 3rd.  All ships will rendezvous west of Naha and then proceed north to Kyushu.  Tomorrow, the recon squadrons at Naha and Formosa will begin reconning the four bases on Kyushu, so I'll be able to gauge what I'm up against.  This invasion is truly immense - nearly the entire US Army is available - so much in fact that the transports are carrying only about 1/3 to 1/2 of the infantry units.  Most of these are prepped for Nagasaki.  The 2nd wave will bring troops prepping for Sasebo.  CAP will be provided primarily by carrier fighters, but one large squadron of P-38Js at Naha will provide LRCAP.  I don't know how much Miller has left to defend with - he still has quite a few BBs and CAs available, and I assume he'll throw everything at the Allied ships.  D-Day is probably three days off.

To the East:  The Aussies are loading three divisions, one brigade, and two tank regiments at Darwin.  This force will head for Palau - occupied by some 13,000 troops.  Allied bombers have been hitting Palau on a daily basis for more than a year, and Miller hasn't put up any opposition for about that long (and no reason he should, as Palau is pretty much useless to him).  So I don't expect much opposition.  Other Aussie troops are prepping for Yap and Iwo Jima.

To the West:  A Chinese unit is landing at Victoria Point, but I'm not sure it will be strong enough to take this isolated outpost.  More troops are on the way from Rangoon.  The units marching overland to Tavoy will begin arriving tomorrow, joining the armored units that took the base a few days ago.  These combined units will then move on Bangkok, joining the Allied army that has been besieging that town for many weeks.  In a month or so, a huge Allied army will be present at Bangkok and should then be able to move to the east, joining the smaller Allied army that took Phnom Penh.  These troops will then move on Saigon.  I think the Jap defenses in SE Asia are in big trouble - the only thing slowing up the Allies now are poor roads.

To the North:  The Russians at Vlad are resting for a few days.

[Canoerebel]

6/3/44 and 6/4/44
 
Invasion of Kyushu (Nagasaki):  Reconnaissance aircraft from Okinawa and Formosa reported lighter than anticipated defenses at the four bases on Kyushu Island, the southernmost of the Japanese Home Islands.  Here are the reports:  Sasebo (4 units/25,000 strong); Furuoka (1/300); Nagasaki (5/12,000); and Kagoshima (17, 55,000).  The invasion force arrived on the 4th and encountered no mines or surface combat ships. The following shore bombardment badly damaged a handful of Jap transports and an ML docked at Nagasaki.  For some reason, only one trasnsport TF began unloading.  About half of 4th Division came ashore.  They should be (had better be!) joined by boukoups others tomorrow.  Additional transport TFs are leaving Naha.  Some Avengers sortied and badly damaged a Jap CL and DD, but otherwise the "coast is clear."
 
Russia:  To my surprise, the Russians got a 2:1 on successive attacks spaced a week apart; the second attack (on the 4th) succeeded in booting 12 of the 32 Jap units in the hex.  These units retreated to Suchan.  The Russians will shock attack tomorrow, and I think most of the Japs will retreat.  Then the Japs will be bottled up at Suchan, threatened with destruction.
 
Situation:  It certainly seems dire for the Japs, but Miller has bounced back before to administer well-thought-out counterattacks; so this could be the beginning of the end for him, or just another opportunity to lash out.  There is no give up to the lad.

[Canoerebel]

6/5/44 to 6/19/44
 
Game Summary:  The Allies have taken a 13,000 point lead, they've taken the Philippines, Formosa, and half of Okinawa, they've invaded the Home Islands, they're pressing on Bangkok, and the Jap invasion of Russia is a total disaster, yet things aren't going all that well at the moment!  I keep expecting Miller to surrender, but based upon his most recent email he intends to see it through until I earn an auto-victory.  He's tenacious and very, very good on the defensive, so I'm going to have to buckle down, stop playing sloppy, and get the job done.

Points:  Back in mid-January '44, the Allies drew even with the Japs.  The Allies now have a 13,000 point lead, meaning the lead is increasing by an average of 2,500 points per month.  At that rate, the Allies wouldn't earn an auto victory until mid- or late 1945.  But the lead should grow more quickly as the Allies bring more force to bear against the Home Islands, and if I do my job right.

Invasion of Kyushu:  The Allies came ashore at Nagasaki 100,000 strong.  Shore guns caused a moderate amount of damage and disruption.  Before the Allies could make any further progress, Miller transferred an equal number of Japanese troops to Nagasaki.  I had a second wave prepping on Okinawa, and a big force prepping for Sasebo at Formosa, and noticing that Sasebo was lightly held, I thought I might catch Miller focusing on Nagasaki.  So I sent the second invasion in at Sasebo around the 15th.  That beach was mined, and the mines and shore guns once again did their job.  This Allied force is ashore and stronger than the Japs defenses, but I think Miller will have time to bring in plenty of reinforcements.  So I'm concerned that the Allied invasions will bog down, but I'll do my best to work something out, or to see if I can use the Jap commitment of forces on Kyushu to create opportunities elsewhere.

At Sea and in the Air:  Miller has thrown his combat ships and airforce against the invasion forces.  My ships have suffered alot of damage.  Plenty of transports have gone under, and alot of combat ships - including some big ones like BBs, CAs, CLs, and a CVE - have suffered moderate damage.  My dockyards from Okinawa to Formosa to Luzon are full of ships.  Miller's combat TFs got whacked in surface combat and by carrier-based air, and he has lost a few CAs, CLs, and DDs.  In this game, he has lost a gazillion aircraft - there have been multiple days in the past year where he's incurred losses of 500, 600, 800, 900 airplanes, but still they come.  On the 19th, he lost 528 aircraft (505 a2a, 20 flak, 3 ops) while the Allies lost 82.  But he doesn't seem to run low.  I think his pilots are completely green now, but there's no shortage of planes to fly.  He's lost over 17,000 aircraft in the game.

Russia:  I've bottled up the Jap invasion army in Suchan, and the Russians have already achieved one 2:1 attack.  The Japs still hold Suchan, but it should fall within a week or two, and eventually the Russians will wipe out this Jap army (that will be a few points - it's most of 10 divisions strong).  I wish I could then load up the Russian army and invade Japan, but I suspect their Far East HQ designation will not permit them to load ships, and changing the HQ of just a single big Russian unit costs 5,000+ political points, so that isn't an option.  The Russians will have to wage a ground war invasion of Manchuria.  On the plus side, there is 240,000 units of fuel at Vladivostock, and the Allied fleet can make good use of that.

SE Asia:  The Allies troops from Tavoy and Moulmein are still on the march to Bangkok and it will take awhile to get there.  The Allies have transferred a big base force to Tavoy, and another is on the way to Victoria Point.  Once the troops are in place (probably a good 30 days off), I think Bangkok will fall relatively quickly.  The next target will be Saigon.  B-29s from Rangoon hit the port of Singapore a few days ago, scoring 18 hits on BB Hiei and setting her afire.

CenPac:  The Aussie have invaded Pagan.  Shore guns and mines did the usual damage, but the ground troops outnumber the Japs 5:1, so despite 9 forts (which have since fallen to 8), I expect the Allies to take Pagan within a week or two.  Then the Aussie's will look at Iwo, Chichi Jima, and Tori Shima (with a little help from the Americans).

[Canoerebel]

In the preceding post I stated that the Japs had lost 17,000 aircraft in the game.  Actually, its the Allies that have lost about that many.  The Japs have lost 32,000.  But Miller says he still has plenty of aircraft; and apparently he has plenty of pilots, but they are green and go down in flames whenever they meet Allied fighters or flak.
 
Since that last post, the Aussies have reduced forts on Pagan to 0 (from 9) and are getting attacks at 4:1 and 5:1 odds. I think Pagan will fall within a day or two.
 
As for points, the easiest and least expensive way for the Allies to generate points is by bombing industry/resources/etc. in the Home Island.  I have had two big B-29 squadrons in Vladivostock targeting resources in Aomori for a few weeks, and they've already tallied 1,000 points.  I have four more B-29 squadrons available, so I'm looking for a big airfield with plenty of supplies, and I'll then move those B-29s there and they can join the effort.
 
I will continue to work on Sasebo and Nagasaki, but if things begin to look too bleak, I'll bite the bullet and pull my troops out.  The Japs have about equal AV at Nagasaki and tried a deliberate attack that turned out very badly for them, so for now it's a stalemate.  Miller can bring in more reinforcements by land, but will he and can he afford to do so?  The Allies outnumber the Japs at Sasebo, but I'm not sure that base is at risk since the Japs are behind 8 forts.

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Tie the jap troops down at Kyushu and invade somewhere else with additional forces.

[Canoerebel]

6/20/44 and 6/21/44
 
String:  Most of the U.S. forces are now ashore at Sasebo or Nagasaki, or in reserve at Okinawa where they are prepped for one of those two bases.  It would be difficult to marshall the forces at this point to invade anywhere else on the Home Islands, and I feel pretty sure that such a move would just result in a third stalemate.  But the Aussie troops just took Palau and will be moving on Iwo Jima and possibly Yap; and other Aussies and the Brit 18th Division will be moving on Borneo pretty soon.  I still think the best course of action is to consolidate my position as best I can, shore up my supply situation, and hammer the Home Islands by air.
 
US CVs:  The CVs were protecting the invasion fleets, but after the last big Turkey Shoot on the 19th, when 500 Jap aircraft went down, I sent the CVs north toward Vladivostock to refuel.  They should arrive in two days.
 
Russia:  On the 21st, the Russians reclaimed Suchan on a 5:1 shock attack that cost both sides 3.2k casualties.  The Jap army here is in big trouble.
 
CenPac:  As noted above, the Aussie's took Pagan.  A 2:1 shock attack on the 21st took the base.  It will take awhile to eliminate the defenders, but I'm not concerned about them.  Other Aussie troops are prepping for Iwo Jima and Yap (mostly the former) and that invasion could take place in two or three weeks, if I have the ships to devote to the effort.  Some American troops are prepping for Tori Shima and Chichi Jima, and I'll move on those bases if recon shows that they are lightly held.

[Canoerebel]

6/22/44 and 6/23/44
 
Russia: The main Allied carrier fleet arrived in Vladivostock on the 23rd, primarily to refuel, reprovision, and then move out to try some strikes against ports in the heart of Japan.  The carrier re-supplied fine, and their aircraft squadrons were able to rebuild, but the ships wouldn't take fuel from the Russian stocks.  I don't know if this is some kind of glitch or there's a rule against American ships in Vlad fueling.  The ships will leave port in day or two.
 
Kyushu:  The Allied troops at Sasebo tried a deliberate attack on the 23rd.  It came off at 1:1, dropped forts to 7, and both sides suffered equal casualties 1100/18 for the Japs, 1064/17/7 for the Allies.  I think Jap reinforcements just showed up, so that could put a stop to the progress; but the US 7th Division and 4th Marine Raiders are on the way.  Most of my remaining reserve are prepping for Nagasaki, which is a total stalemat now.  I don't know whether to send them there or re-orient them toward Sasebo.  I'll give it further thought.
 
Points:  The Allied lead is up to 14,000.