Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[Nemo121]

Hmm, ok well I always defer to testing... Guess the absence of 4-engined planes really skewed my tests PLUS it was in an open economy during real games so there may have been other confounders
 
So, 1-engined plane = 36 HI
2-engined plane = 72 HI
4-engined plane = 144 HI
5-engined plane = 180 HI
6-engined plane = 216 HI
 
Well that's it. I've made the final additions to V1.3 and resent it... The Ki-264s are now 6-engined bombers to simulate the massive difficulty Japan would have in building them. Each player can build 6 fighters for the cost of a single Ki-264 or 3 x twin-engined army bombers. As the war goes on the number of engines required falls so as to simulate Japan's growing capability to produce such large, complicated, planes.
 
So, if you have 12,000 HI per day = 360,000 HI per month and you produce 100 Ki-264s per month you will have used up 21,600 = 5% of your entire HI for the month just on your bomber force --- or equivalent to enough build 4 entire submarines for the whole month. It shows you just how expensive a navy and a strategic bomber force are. For just 1/3rd of the outlay you can have the same number of tactical bombers ( twin-engined planes ). Makes the choices a lot more interesting.
 
Thanks for the good work here n01487477. Anything which improves the knowledge base is good.

[John 3rd]

Here is the correct dispositions of the American and Japanese Fleets around the Bonins. I titled the posting to get Dan's attention and make him think I am attacking RIGHT NOW! [:)][:)]

[ny59giants]

Here is the latest economic reports.

[ny59giants]

Here are the growing reserves.
Comments and feedback from other economic ministers, please.
Adjustments?!?

[ny59giants]

Shipbuilding status. Recommendations for change, if any.

[ny59giants]

Just a useful screenshot from Tracker that some here may not have seen before.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Here are the growing reserves.
Comments and feedback from other economic ministers, please.
Adjustments?!?

From: A bean counter
To: A coffee brewer

Minister,
I'm impressed with the continued growth of HI and Vehicles. Might you consider halting Armament production for a few weeks?

Reinforcement armament need and delayed in the next 60 Days amount to just about 18K, you have sufficient to cover this. But as ever it is your decision to make...

A timely reminder that expanding any (not repairing existing) production facility will HI cost = num * 10 and associated supplies (cost show on screen) & then supplies to build. (Just if you're thinking about expanding anything - which I doubt you are!)

Lastly, how about halting Musashi, Kasagi and Aso for a few days, and accelerating Ise, surely John would like that in 11 Days to go with Hyunga in 17 ... or are you waiting to bring them in together ?...

Similarly, I recommend halting Kasagi and Aso, because when Ikoma catches up you can have 3 brought in at relatively the same time ... a nice little anvil of strength ... ! [edit]And soon (after Musashi) you'll be able to accelerate all 3 ...

Back to the counting ...
Make me a cuppa ?

---Damian---

[ny59giants]

I'm impressed with the continued growth of HI and Vehicles. Might you consider halting Armament production for a few weeks?

I ended up expand one small Vehicles at Kanazawa a few days ago. Don't ask me why I felt the need to do so, but it seemed right at the time (I thing an armored division was over in Bangkok recovering). Hopefully, it will help as the Allies press in. I had just brough all but the 150 Armament back on line (Tokyo), but I'll turn off the other 4 x 75 Armament plants.

Lastly, how about halting Musashi, Kasagi and Aso for a few days, and accelerating Ise, surely John would like that in 11 Days to go with Hyunga in 17 ... or are you waiting to bring them in together ?...

Similarly, I recommend halting Kasagi and Aso, because when Ikoma catches up you can have 3 brought in at relatively the same time ... a nice little anvil of strength ... ! [edit]And soon (after Musashi) you'll be able to accelerate all 3 ...

I'm going to let John decide on this, as even though it is under the Economic's Minister area, he has a better idea of what he wants to do with his Navy. [;)]

[ny59giants]

John,
Here is what it looks like following what Damian recommended (view the right most column to see what is given points).

[John 3rd]

Hi Guys.

I have been trying formulate a battle plan to deal with the American Fleet and I look down over my War Ministers desk to see a new mouond of economic paperwork!  The headache--which is always near--over the economy is lessoning and appears to be going away.

How you guys can work thru and process all this information is amazing and I lift my cap off to you.  The four of you have been magnificent and I hope other readers have enjoyed the banter, serious discussion, and powerful economic thought that has occurred here.  It is excellent.

On the reactions/thoughts to questions:
1.  I agree on the halting of the 2 CV so that they may coincide (Asagi, Aso, and Ikoma) in joining the Fleet at nearly the same time.
2.  Would LOVE to keep Musashi going but lets halt her for a bit so the 2 BB-Hybrids come in together.  Can certainly use them in the fight that is about to happen.
3.  Lets keep Vehicles and Armaments going until the end of the month.  I want to make sure that all my armor units get stocked up and the new infantry units about to come are set for the same.  Have to also keep in mind that there will be about 4-5 Inf Div needing to be rebuilt from the Rangoon evacuation.
4.  We NEED the new ASW escorts to get finished!  Michael--Can you turn some of the merchant shipyard back on so that can happen?  Dan's SS have been covering other things but we can bet on their arrival to our constricted sealanes much sooner then later.

Military Thinking:
1.  I am thinking of attacking FAR north China and try to grab that city NW of my current lines.  It has Heavy Industry, Resources, and Oil.  Might that be of help?  There are no good Chinese roads to it so I stand a decent chance of actually taking it before the Hordes arrive.
2.  Am moving fighters into the Okinawa--Formosa--Philippines Lines as fast as I can upgrade them.  REALLY wish the new Tonys were coming in NOW instead of October.
3.  Serious issues with Dan taking Rangoon.  If he drives me out of Moulmein then the DEI is in serious trouble.  Problem is the Chinese (within his army there) make it impossible to drive him back.  Any ideas here?
4.  I am about to pull an Infantry Division out of eastern Australia.  I intend to bring it back to either Formosa or Okinawa as these two places are basically naked at the moment.  Thoughts there?

Operation Typhoon:
Have started operational planning for the Japanese counterstroke.  Does it help that Combined Fleet HQ is at Saipan?

From the screenshot I posted earlier, Dan keeps his CVs about 2-3 hexes North of Iwo while most of his shipping is at Iwo Jima where they are waiting on his MSW to finish cleaning out my mines.  I want to flush those TF away from Iwo Jima's CAP (about 40 Hellkittens and a few Corsairs) so the KB (20 CVs total:  9 CV, 5 CVL, 6 CVE) can then attack them from five hexes away and (hopefully) crush his AP/AK TF and force his Fleet to withdraw.

To do this:
1.  A powerful STF will strike at Iwo.  They will not Bombard but they will attack whatever they can and return to Pagan.  I will cover them with about 150 Tony/Jacks.  This should force his shipping away from the island.

2.  Will position the KB (over 900 planes) four hexes SE of Iwo Jima so they can strike the Island area or any hex north of it.  In doing this, I should 'outrange' (what book is that from?) the enemy CVs and not risk colossal damage to my carriers. They will be set to '0' reaction.

3.  The Betty Fleet (200 Betty with 150 Fighters) sitting in the Marianas will be unleashed along with fighter escort. 

Goal:  Severely maul the American AP/AK/TK/AO and fix it so Dan cannot lift his troops out of Iwo Jima. 

The Fleet will then retire towards the Marianas and see what the American reaction is...


This is THE PLAN.  I am open to suggestions, recommendations, and insults from the readership.  My feelings will not be hurt.  I know Nemo has thrown out some sound advice.  Nemo?  Anyone else??

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
Sept 5-9, 1943
 
The other hot area is Indochina and Burma.  The last of my troops were wiped out at Rangoon on the 9th.  I am pleasantly happy to note that when I tried to attack the troops who had encircled my city (250,000 Japanese present that day) to the loss of the Port, my losses did not exceed 25,000 men.  Pretty good work with the evacuation if you ask me!
 
Dan will obviously move on Moulmein soon.  It is solid with an AS of 2,600, Fort 9, and supplies around 40,000.
 
The biggest problem I have is that my divisions from Rangoon are spread from Bangkok to Tavoy to Moulemin, to Victoria Point.  Must bring them together to reorganize, refit, and fill out my TOE.  This will take time.  Bangkok is the key to this and Dan is already hitting shipping there.  Until I can train up some army Sentai this will continue to happen. 
 
The Indians are trying to make life difficult by landing paratroopers (INDIAN Paras??!!) at Siem Reap and Battambang.  I had already begun moving two portions of Inf Divisions to this area due to recon flights.  The paras at Battambang were driven out and to Siem Reap.  Siem Reap has LRCAP over it shooting down Allied Transport planes and will have Japanese Infantry arriving within a few days.  Should EASILY deal with this threat.  Strange move but it does force me to react...
 
 
Side Note
I forgot to mention in the earlier email about my SS Offensive in the Bonins.  The 9th saw Ro-33 sink an LCI and put 2 TT into a TK.  I-123 was hit by ASW while laying a few mines but should get home without issue.  Two days of attacks and ASW have accounted for the following:
 
Japanese:  Sunk 1 AK, 1 LCI with damage done to 1 DD, 1 AO, 1 TK.
 
Allies:  Sunk Ro-60 and damage done to 4 Japanese SS with none in sinking condition.
 
There are still about a dozen SS Operating in the area and I move a pair to both Tori Shima and Chichi Jima to catch anything damaged.
 

[n01487477]

John,
overall I like the plan ... (there is a typhoon in the Pacific right now called Nakri)

This plan seems potentially flawed only if he moves Sth ... don't lose sight of those Allied CV's movements.

1. Taking a Chinese Base rich with HI/OIL/RES will only make your job easier. As long as it doesn't take a long siege and you end up repairing everything.
2. Yes, Michael and I should look at air groups, engines and airframes again shortly, especially close to the end of this month.
3. I defer to Generals of greater experience....
4. I agree with pulling the Division, but if I were him, I'd tighten the screws on you, especially if I still had enough supplies, 8-9 Divisions running rampant and been lulled in the last few days of relative safety. Although, maybe the delay in you striking back quickly would have me wondering ...

So by "tightening the screws", I'd be thinking why the hell not go for another target, something to wreak havoc on your economy. I don't need Saipan, I want somewhere to make your life miserable. Okinawa/Formosa/an Island I can use or maybe at a stretch Leyte... (I think he para'd into Siem Reap and Battambang as a spoiler/to annoy you, make you jump into something and make a mistake ... Same thing here ... psychological + economic noose)....you'd have to react, I'd try to out gun you. And on thinking further, isn't this whole bold strategy of his, to draw your hand, do a hammer blow from which you can't recover... & he knows he has more in the pipeline.

Therefore, if you have any troops available, get them loaded and reinforcing these area's ... And like Michael said a ring of fire, would help in combating that..

And if he does try to backtrack, give him a taste of Napoleon's march back from Moscow, harass him, use your subs along "normal" paths to make him feel pain. A guy did this to me, and it was a floating smorgasbord for the sharks... although maybe Dan is smarter than I.

---Damian---
[edit] re: Reinforcements - read somewhere about units outside bases in Malaria area's doing better & obviously near HQ's. Would like to know more about supply usage and reinforcements sometime. Maybe something for after this battle is concluded.

[edit] Having read Nemo's analysis below, I realise I'm still learning, and desperately need a game soon to sharpen my skills and analysis ... Could help with focusing on what WitpTracker needs too ... BB or CHS or Nemo ... hmm..

[Nemo121]

I think your plan is an excellent way to lose your SC TF component to virtually no gain. In naval combat the enemy SC TFs are now stronger than yours so, in effect, you are sending outnumbered, lower quality ships out to fight in the enemy's backyard with a view to engaging in synchronous battle with the enemy. It'll be grand spectacle but it won't be strategically viable.
 
Without enemy air cover his BBs etc are jut Betty-fodder. Why are you striking at components he doesn't need ( SC TFs ) with irreplaceable forces you do need ( for bombardment runs once the enemy airfield is closed ) when you could achieve everything you want with a plan aimed at crucifying his carrier air strength ( not his carriers but his carrier air strength ).

Just my opinion since you mooted you wished for feedback

[ny59giants]

On the reactions/thoughts to questions:
1. I agree on the halting of the 2 CV so that they may coincide (Asagi, Aso, and Ikoma) in joining the Fleet at nearly the same time.
2. Would LOVE to keep Musashi going but lets halt her for a bit so the 2 BB-Hybrids come in together. Can certainly use them in the fight that is about to happen.
3. Lets keep Vehicles and Armaments going until the end of the month. I want to make sure that all my armor units get stocked up and the new infantry units about to come are set for the same. Have to also keep in mind that there will be about 4-5 Inf Div needing to be rebuilt from the Rangoon evacuation.
4. We NEED the new ASW escorts to get finished! Michael--Can you turn some of the merchant shipyard back on so that can happen? Dan's SS have been covering other things but we can bet on their arrival to our constricted sealanes much sooner then later.

1 & 2 - You can make the changes if you remember for the next turn or I will the next time a turn comes across my desk. I will double check anyways.
3 - These two industries will continue unchanged. Besides there are 4 Bde coming in as reinforcements within 100 days. Tracker says there are 100% TO&E, but better safe then sorry.
4. Below is the Merchant Buildings. Except for a few MSWs, the ASW escorts are in the Naval Buildings. Once the BBs and this batch of DDs that are accelerated are finished, they should be able to get done.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Here are the growing reserves.
Comments and feedback from other economic ministers, please.
Adjustments?!?

Things are looking good, especially the HI. The concern I see is the navy and merchant shipbuilding. Consumption is still greater than usage. I'd recommend halting some slow APs and AKs to solve the merchant concerns and maybe remove accelerate on the Hyuga, Fujinami and Suzunami to save 258 navy shipbuilding points per turn. If that's enough to start increasing the navy points in the pool, then see what you're saving each turn and accelerate accordingly.

Edit: I just saw that the shortage is 152 navy points. In that case, I'd downgrade just the Hyuga. That'll give a surplus of 58 per turn. That would be good to build up a bit of a surplus for awhile. I like having a surplus of about 4-500, just in case. You're short over 3k merchant points per day. If you want to regulate that, you'll have to turn on some merchant shipyards or you'll never get that aspect going again. You can try by shutting off all merchants and then turn on just what you want/need, but you'll need most of it eventually. Keeping your merchant shipyards off now solves your HI problem but means disaster later when you don't have replacement hulls to cover your losses.

[Nemo121]

I just thought I'd clarify my thinking here. I'm manoeuvrist and an adherent of Soviet doctrine ( which was undoubtedly the best doctrine at the strategic level during this time period... ) so the question I would ask myself in your situation is:
 
Question 1: "What is my CRITICAL objective here?"
Answer: To prevent Iwo Jima being turned into a fortress from which he can strike deeper and destroy my economic lifeline.
 
Q2: What are his means of striking deeper from Iwo Jima?
Answer: Land-based air and naval air +, possibly, further amphibious invasions.
 
Q3: How can I defeat his LBA?
Answer: By closing the field ( through either bombardments or aerial attack ). For either of these to be succesful enemy CVs need to be removed from the field as a going concern.
 
Q4: How can I defeat his CV-based air? ( which is crucial to answering Q3 )
Answer: Sinking his carriers or depleting his NAVY pilot and plane pools.
 
Q5: Which is easier for me to do, sink his CVs or just butcher all of their pilots  such that they have to sprint to safety to replenish and refill their pilot and plane ranks?
Answer: Well if you attack his shipping you have to carry a mixed load of fighters and torpedo and dive-bombers and will suffer much heavier losses as the attacker. In addition you will have fewer fighters on CAP and your own CVs etc will be vulnerable to counter-strike. OTOH if you just create a 90% CAP with almost nothing but fighters on your CVs you WILL be able to crucify his strike forces and once his airgroups are destroyed his CVs will really have to withdraw.
 
Q6: Without CV air cover can he invade deeper?
A: No.
 
Q7: Without CV air cover can his surface combat TFs survive in the face of Bettys and KB strike groups?
A: No.
 
 
So, it ALL comes down to removing the USN CVs from the area through either sinking them or killing so many of their pilots and planes that it is prudent for the USN player to remove them from the area. Once they are gone you can retake Tori Shima etc, bombard the airfield on Iwo to nothingness and begin a nice siege while waiting for a relief convoy to show up and get massacred.

Really though you need to identify his critical weakness, which as I hope I've shown, is his utter reliance on USN CV airpower to guard everything. Weaken that and you've completely defeated this move. Don't weaken it and he'll probably win through.

[String]

Excellent analysis of the situation Nemo121 [:)]

[pat.casey]

I dunno, if he unboxed 200+ corsairs on Iwo and parks a good sized surface combat force there, then I'm thinking that Iwo is pretty much self suffcient.

I'm dubious that you could close a level 6 field with 200 corsairs on cap via airpower alone, which means you'd have to roll in with the big guns and go for a bombardment.

Him keeping a surface combat force on station though largely negates that move since, even if you win a surface engagement, you'll blow so many ops points as to have an anemic bombardment.

Likewise, he doesn't need to keep the surface fleet there for the rest of the war, it's just a stopgap while his carriers sprint back to midway to replenish.

Related note, as long as he has pilots and airframes in pool, can't he just replenish both at Iwo itself? I'm assuming he brought in several hundred k of supplies.

[Andav]

Just a chime in from a lurker who is really enjoying this (and the companion AAR). I really have enjoyed the economy discussions. I have learned so much.

Regarding the tool you are using, I saw one post from someone saying they were going to download it. I did some searches on the site but only found one discussion. The last post was back in April saying it was close to being ready. Google was not my friend either when looking for WiTP Tracker. Is there a place to download this?

Thanks in advance and keep up the GREAT work!

Walter

[John 3rd]

Nemo and Friends:
 
Your analysis makes a Hell of alot of sense.  Though it goes against my offensive motivations in the short run, I think this is a good idea. 
 
Actions:
1.  I just transfered 3 DB Daitai off of Unryu/Amagi/Taiho and replaced them with fighters.  I will take off another 3 Daitai of strike aircraft when I approach Saipan.  This will add 160 Fighters to my CAP.
 
2.  I will further boost this by moving 150 more fighters to Pagan and place them on LRCAP over my TF.  I consider this to be gamey but Dan did it a while back with P-38 so I will return the favor.
 
1 and 2 should give me about 600 Fighters (Jacks/A3/A3a/Tony) over my TF.
 
3.  I will form several decoy TF of BB/Surface ships in hopes of drawing his attack planes against them instead of my CVs. 
 
4.  On that thoughtline, I will split up my CV into 2 CV TF so that there will be around 10 of them.  I don't AA fire here, I simply need CAP and want to minimize damage done to anything that leaks through my CAP.
 
5.  I will bring the BB STF at Toyko Bay around North then East and then South to meet my forces at Saipan.
 
I want to dangle the Fleet close enough to prompt a response so I will move it about 3 hexes SSE of Iwo Jima.  That should be close enough for his CVs to react.  The good news is that any damage I take will have Saipan as a Port Sz-4, 3-4 AR, with Combined Fleet HQ for emergency repair.
 
Is there any way that Combined Fleet HQ can help with this?  Should I set the objective as Iwo Jima or leave it as Saipan?
 
More thoughts and/or comments?