Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[anarchyintheuk]

Sorry to cause alarm. I always get confused about the respective capacities for IJN cvls. And I'm focused on happy hour. [;)]

[Nemo121]

Oh I think you want to keep your forces concentrated but this idea of going for the soft underbelly is good. But remember that you want to go after the soft underbelly in such strength that if you ARE ambushed your force is strong enough to fight its way back to Japan. You must, at all costs, maintain a fleet/threat in being.

[John 3rd]

Nemo:
 
I always appreciate your thoughts.  If you looked through my Order-of-Battle, I think you will agree that it is a formidable threat that should be able to handle itself:  9 CV and 5 CVL are nothing to sneeze at!  Continuing to think about this, I could move some fighters to Wake and they could provide LR CAP for part of the journey going in and coming out.  That might be a good idea...
 
The BBs will have plenty of aircover as well IF Dan moves away from Iwo Jima...
 
Anarchy--ALWAYS feel free to ask questions!
 

[Nemo121]

Yeah, a very strong force. I just would hate to see it concentrated strategically only to be dispersed operationally and thus defeated in detail.

[John 3rd]

I will keep it together for the attack at the Midway area.  The more I think on this, the better I like the idea for hitting Midway. 

I NEED to move Dan away from Iwo or at least forestall his next attack.  I just was looking around the map for our campaign and saw that there are only 5 Inf Div and an Inf Brig in ALL of Japan!  When Dan sends me the turn (hopefully tomorrow) I will order 2 Inf Div and a Brig down into Kyushu.  The Forts there are maxed so that should help.  Two more Divisions will move into the coastal hexes west of Tokyo Bay.  The remaining Division will move to Hiroshima so it can move in any direction.  There are 3 CD units that can move as well as about 6 Construction units.

Troops:
1.  I have the 4th ID approaching the Southern Philippines and it will move to Okinawa. 
2.  The 18th ID is about moved into Perth and it will be pulled out.
3.  Engineers and Base Forces will be pulled from the Aleutians and Marcus.
4.  The best next location to pull troops would be Indochina/Bangkok/Malaya area.
5.  The Marshalls have the equivalent of 3 ID (mainly Brigades), the Marianas have 4 ID (Brigades), the Philippines are at 6 ID in strength.
6.  There are numerous full strength Brigades spread throughout the SE Pacific. 
7. Should be able to pull a China Division about October 5th. It will go to Formosa.

[John 3rd]

Dan just got back and sent me a turn so we shall get going again!
 

[John 3rd]

[font="times new roman"]October 1, 1943 [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Victory Points and Economic Summary[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Victory Points:[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Score[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Japan   44,128  (Up 718 Points)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Allies    22,219  (Up 3,456 Points)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Busy month.  I lost Rangoon—where I lost the base as well as a number of evacuation ships--and Iwo Jima but managed to sink a bunch of his ships.  Who knows what October will bring!  [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ships Sunk[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Japan   436—3,822 VP (up 275)—I lost 38 ships sunk during September.  Exact losses were:  2 CS, 3 DD (all old), 6 SS (4 I-Boats/2 Ro-), 14 AK, 5 AP, 5 MSW, 1 PG, 1 ML, and 1 TK.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Major Japanese Vessels Sunk to Date---CV Junyo and Hiyo, BB Fuso and Yamashiro, BC Kirishima, CAs Kinugasa, Kako, and Mikuma, 5 CL, 36 DD (16 Modern DD lost), and 28 SS (22 I-Boats and 6 Ro-).[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Allies    712---7,898 VP (up 469)---Dan lost a total of 66 ships for the month of September.  I like it when I sink TWICE his number!  His losses were:  14 PTs, 22 AK, 8 AP, 1 APD, 5 LST, 4 DM, 1 MSW, 2 LCI, 2 LCT, 1 MLE, 6 SS.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Major Allied Vessels Sunk---CVs Enterprise, Lexington, Hornet, and Wasp, BBs Colorado, West Virginia, Idaho, Tennessee, Arizona, and Prince of Wales, 9 CA, 7 CL, 49 DD, and 19 SS.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I am hoping that sinking SIX Allied SS can be matched again and again.  My ASW keeps hitting them I—I just don’t get too many sinkings…[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Manchukuo Garrison---8,088---Down 29---(8,000 Needed)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Political Points---1,632[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Units Transferred:  [/font]
[font="times new roman"]China                           2 Engineer Regiments to 4th Fleet[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Manchukuo                  4 Construction Btn to 4th Fleet[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Industrial Report[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Supply              2,417,300[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Fuel                  946,983[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Manpower       842 (1,244,393)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Heavy Industry 15,188 (116,087)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Resources        20,088 (2,260,953)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oil                    2,208 (422,437)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]The numbers continue to look better and better.  We went from a 29,000 surplus in HI to 116,000!   Kudos to my Economic Minister.  Even with the loss of a few manpower and resources, the number all increased nicely.   Should note that—thanks to Minister Benoit—I repaired 28 oil centers during September.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Shipyards[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Naval               1,366 (852) [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Merchant          981 (2)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Repair              1,508[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Battleships[/font][/i]
[font="times new roman"]Musashi (85 Days) [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ise (2 Days)   [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Hyuga (3 Days)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Carriers[/i] [/i][/font]
[font="times new roman"]Katsuragi (243 Days)--Accelerated[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Kasagi (556 Days)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Aso (600 Days)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ikoma (617 Days)--Accelerated   [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Launched a number of DDs this month.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Weapons[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Armament        572 (63,958)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Vehicles           179 (5,188)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Things look pretty stable here.  I have refitted nearly all of my armor and troop units are pretty close to full strength.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Aircraft[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Engines 2,176[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Assembly         1,493+(200-Rd)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I saw a very nice jump in assembly due to more aircraft coming into production.  My research dropped for the same reason but it will rapidly increase as I shift points to the models I want in 1944.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Engine Production[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Mitsubishi         610/Month—Need 688—1,984 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Nakajima         1,296 (3)—Need 877---482 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Kawasaki         240 (20)---Need 290---266 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Aichi                30 (50)---Need 98---266 in Pool[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Aichi production is increasing to take care of my Judys and Kawasaki is doing the same for my new Tonys.  Need to watch Mitsubishi since I am running a small deficit in production.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Plane Production[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Fighters            Planes/Month (in Pool)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M2              0 (182)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M3              0 (70)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M3a            0 (77)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oscar               0 (261)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oscar IIa          0 (117)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tojo                 76 (44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tony                0 (36)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Jack                 239 (208)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M5c            45 (87) [/font]
[font="times new roman"]A6M5              147 (12)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Oscar III          58 (62)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Ki-61 Tony      290 (6)—This airframe arrives THREE months early![/font]
[font="times new roman"]N1K1 George  28-Rd (11/43)---ONE month early![/font]
[font="times new roman"]Frank 1a          21-Rd (08/44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Frank 1c          5-Rd (12/44)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I need A6M5 as fast as I can build them.  Excellent planes like Jack and Tony II will truly help.  We’ll see how quickly research on the Franks comes along.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Bombers[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Betty                0 (376)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Betty 2             73 (5)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Sally                 66 (67)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Helen               131 (42)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Lily                   84 (40)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Nick-a             10 (2)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Nick-b             12 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Val                   0 (419) [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Kate                 63 (113)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Judy                 98 (11)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Jill                    57 (1)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Army bombers are now set.  I am leaving Sally/Helen where they are to get some stocked up and then shift them to Peggy Research.  I cut back on Lily add to Frances Research and boosted Betty 2 some to speed up my transfer of Betty 1 to 2.  Jill just came into production this month—I am changing Val/Kate out as fast as I can to improve my carrier bombers.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Recon/Float[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Emily    20 (1)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Alf        0 (14)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Pete     0  (70)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Pete A  0  (54)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Rufe     6 (22)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Glen     4 (42)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Dinah   0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Irving-R 35 (89)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Irving-S 23 (36)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Jake     8 (90)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Babs    0 (0)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Lost a bunch of Emily to the US CVs!  Am planning on shutting down Jake and moving it to Emily so I can keep up on replacements.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Transports[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tina      10 (59)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Sally     0 (1)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Topsy   7 (3)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Mavis-L 5 (19)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]Tabby 0 (98)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Have been using TR more then I thought and will have to ad a bit of construction here.[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]

[John 3rd]

I haven't posted any updates for about 6 turns because I didn't want to jinx anything. The screenshot demonstrates what is happening. Thoughts???

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
October 1-6, 1943
 
The period of relative calm surrouding the great Jack do-over has ended and things are truly starting to heat up again.  There appear to be two main areas of action:

1.  Haiphong--Yet once again Dan is going to try to take a Lvl-9 target with over 1,000 AS in defense.  I am having some issues moving troops from Hanoi to Haiphong to bolster its defense but I am not too concerned yet.

2.  Operation Nakri, Version 3--The Kido Butai sets sail from Saipan on October 2, 1943 in an effort to cause chaos and give me a chance to sink ships and then take a swipe at Iwo Jima with the Battle Fleet.

Regional Reports:

Northern Pacific
Calm, calm, calm...I am pulling out a large base Force and several small Construction Battalions to return to Japan but that is about all for news here.

Central Pacific
The Marianas
I change over planes as fast as possible and on September 2nd, most of the Kido Butai sets sail in a ESE direction angling between Marcus and Wake.  Dan is doing no recon whatsoever so this is a simple task. 

The reason why 'most' of the KB left is that I needed to have my Raiding Force of Unryu/Amagi/Zuiho reach Saipan, refuel, and change over aircraft.  These CVs are carrying ONLY fighters!  Going with Nemo's advice, I have loaded every CVL with a Daitai of Zeros as well as these CV.  I have effectively doubled my Fighter strength.  In waiting the extra day I do have the benefit of converting an M3a Daitai over to M5 Zekes.  I take what I can get...

There are 5 CTF and a STF moving into battle.  A replennishment TF of 6 AO with 24,000 fuel follows at a distance.

Operation Nakri Recap
As I have looked for an opportunity to inflict REAL damage on the American Fleet, I have come to think this might be the best option.  This is a typically complex Japanese plan.  It unfold in 3 Phases:

Phase 1--The KB moves into the shipping lanes between Iwo Jima and Midway.  They will sow as much chaos as possible.  I think Dan has substantial amounts of AK/AP/TK and--perhaps--a few CV near this base.  I HOPE to score massively on them with these 14 carriers.  The KB will stay on station for 2-3 days and move along attacking any targets of opportunity. 

The GOAL is for this Raid to force Dan to move the Pacific Fleet AWAY from Iwo Jima.

Phase 2--The American Fleet moves away from the target.  I ready my CVEs to move to Pagan and provide LR CAP over my 2 BB TF.  The 180 Army Planes at Pagan get set the same way.  Going into Iwo Jima will be 6 BB and escorts with up to 300 Fighters providing aerial protection. 

At the same time as this occurs, the new BB Hybrids Ise and Hyuga will sortie from Tokyo Bay to also bombard Iwo Jima.  They will be covered by Fighters from the Japanese Mainland.

Phase 3--The BB TF hit Iwo over a 2 day period causing as much trouble as possible.  The Saipan TF crosses the Bonins and returns to Tokyo while the Tokyo TF goes to Saipan.

I am torn between splitting my BB at Saipan into 2 TF (A--Yamato, Mutsu, and Nagato and B--Hiei, Kongo, and Haruna) or just send them in as one big MASSIVE group.  Imput???

While the BBs are hitting Iwo Jima, the KB will retire towards Wake, refuel, reprovision, and await developments.

South Pacific
I am moving about 50 AP to various locations throughout the area and will begin to pick-up selected units.  I plan to lift 3-4 Brigades, several large BF, some Artillery, and Construction units.

Australia
Dan is finally moving on Brisbane.  I have only a reinforced Infantry Division there but it will fight until driven out of the city.  There are AP at Townsville that will handle the eventual evacuation when it is needed.

Adelaide and Broken Hill are still held by a similar force and will stay there until driven out.  All forces from these two locations will fall back on Alice Springs and hold at that point.

I have withdrawn 75% of the Aussie Army over the last several months due to Dan's inactivity.  During that time, I have been able to use the Heavy Industry here as well as load about 75,000 resources every 2 weeks to bring back to the Home Islands.

DEI
Dan's SS are becoming truly annoying.  He has them spread along the eastern Philippines, the Formosa--Okinawa area, and south of the Home Islands.  My LBA has been hitting an SS about every other day but they are still scoring too many hits. 

Example:  SS Redfish launched an attack on an AK October 2nd SW of Formosa.  I moved an ASW TF there and on the 3rd that sub sank a PC, the 4th saw it hit another PC with a torp, and the 5th saw it move and sink a small AK!  Promote that Captain...

Burma/Malaya/Indochina
As I said above Dan is moving on Haiphong.  As long as the computer allows me to get troops there, I am not concerned.  To be safe I order 2 Infantry Divisions to move in that direction to help if needed.

I plan a small ambush over Moulmein tomorrow.  Dan has been hitting this base from 4-5 different locations in small numbers.  He isn't attacking the AF but the troops.  With that in mind, I moved in 3 Sentai of Tony with an average experience of 70-75 and set them on LR CAP Range 0.  We'll see how well they do tomorrow.

I have reinforced Port Blair with a Combat Command raising that island's AS to above 450.  If Dan tries to take it (a logical move) then I should be able to defend pretty well.  Two convoys carrying over 12,000 in supply are unloading there currently.

China
I took that useless village in the north called Paotow.  My hope is to draw Dan's attention up there.  I'll try an overland march to threaten Sian and other points just to keep him occupied.

Home Islands
As I mentioned last week, I am concerned that Dan may try something VERY foolish and perhaps invade Kyushu or Honshu.  I have ordered a mass movement of troops, CD, and Engineers to the most likely invasion sites.  There are lots of CD units moved and prepped.  If possible I will move some infantry home to help toughen up the defense.

Okinawa is now pretty safe.  I second Infantry Division is unloading right now as well as numerous support units having arrived over the last few weeks.  If he hits it, it will be pretty darned tough!



I think that covers nearly all of it.  Anyone got any thoughts?   

[n01487477]

Economic Insight or blindness?
I compared your Aug and Sept figures and I notice that you repaired 68 Oil in Aug and only 28 in Sept ... Is there any way to speed this up ? On current repair rates, it will take approx 10 months to become sufficient again (15K HI). Meanwhile your Oil supplies have dwindled by 120k (not sure if the in game screen takes note of Oil on ships) ... So the gap is still widening.
[*]You can maintain about 13K HI producing to achieve Oil-HI equilibrium.
[*]If you can increase your rate of repair(2 a day instead of one) the economic woes will be over much quicker...obviously,but critically...more supplies/engineers may help in this.
[*]Get Michael to look at LCU's to determine if more savings can be made to Arm production.
[*]And again to use those surplus Naval ship points.

On a good note fuel increased ... and supplies stayed almost constant.

Good luck with the ensuing battle.
---Damian---

[John 3rd]

Damian,
 
I was surprised at the lack of Oil Center repairs as well.  We have been shipping lots of supply to Palembang.  How can one accelerate rebuilding at this port?  I was told that Engineers based there wouldn't help.  Can they?  This is something I don't have a clue about.
 
On the naval points topic, things are looking pretty good there as well.  I decided to accerate Musashi so I get her in a month.  I slowed to normal just about everything else so she could be finished without sucking up too many stockpiled points.
 
Am not sure as to the HI question.  Learning to balance the economy is pretty tough.  I am so focused on the war that the economy gets seconds in priority.  This is changing as I learn more and more and get tracker running more efficiently.
 
 

[saj42]

You can only repair 1 point per base per day (given at least 11000 supplies).
So if you have several bases needing repair, you repair several points per day hence the total of 68.
If you only have 1 base left to repair you cannot get back more than 30/31 points per month, hence 28 repaired.

If you do still have more bases than Palembang with damaged oil centres then something is amiss in the SRA.......

[n01487477]

John,
I'm sure economics takes second fiddle right now, and so it probably should ...

[*]I guess we had some crossed wires about the Oil repair. I assumed that they were in various locations ... if not(and ur only repairing at Palembang),that would be consistent. I've only ever seen them repair 1 a day in the same location, so (Unless someone else can tell me otherwise)...
[*]I thought Engineers helped ...but I'm still learning too[&:]
[*]HI<->Oil 2208 Oil centres produce 13248 Oil/day. Oil->HI is 1:1, so you should be trying to maintain this level of HI production, going over, will eventually cause you to run dry ... but I wouldn't worry about that too much just yet. It's 5 months away! And repairs to Oil centres will have extended that further.
[*]Remember every Oil centre repair = 6 more Oil and 6 more HI [:'(]
[*]Just keep an eye that your large HI production area's have enough Res and Oil for now.
[*]Lastly I note that even though you say you have reinforced your LCU's, there has been an increase in Arm ... if you want to save a bit more HI, turn off a little more and monitor. 63K pool is pretty big, considering that many large LCU's fill out with just over 2K.
[*]And I'm working on revamping some of the production screens to make them more intuitive ... It was a rush job in the beginning, something I regret a bit now.

I know Michael, has mostly handed the economy off to you, but there are plenty of us around to give some advice ... now give the readers some action, rather than letting me bore them to sleep.

[ny59giants]

Both Palembang and Balilpapan have more than enough supply to be repairing a damaged Oil center per day. Thus, there hould have been 60 centers repaired last month. I don't know why there would be less. Any attempts by John to "steal" any supplies I need sent there have resulted in a "nasty" gram or at least some effective wording in out PMs. He tried to take supplies from Palembang and the Economics Ministry blew a gasket on that. [:D]

Globally, there is only 1 damaged Oil point at Bankha and it isn't worth a shipment of more supply there.

Economics Minister Benoit

ps - I'll post an updated economic info from Tracker when I get home from the office.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Damian,

I was surprised at the lack of Oil Center repairs as well.  We have been shipping lots of supply to Palembang.  How can one accelerate rebuilding at this port?  I was told that Engineers based there wouldn't help.  Can they?  This is something I don't have a clue about.

On the naval points topic, things are looking pretty good there as well.  I decided to accerate Musashi so I get her in a month.  I slowed to normal just about everything else so she could be finished without sucking up too many stockpiled points.

Am not sure as to the HI question.  Learning to balance the economy is pretty tough.  I am so focused on the war that the economy gets seconds in priority.  This is changing as I learn more and more and get tracker running more efficiently.

Engineers do not help with repair of facilities. Only supply. It costs 1000 supply per point of repair. There must be a minimum of 10k supplies at the base for the repair to occur and only one point per facility can be repaired in a day. It get very expensive very quickly.

[ny59giants]

Economic Updates for 7 Oct '43 - Overview

I have looked back at a prior posting dated 10 Sept '43. Oil was 2164 x (436) with Palembang at 441 x (259) and Balikpapan 126 x (174). Now compare this with todays date and there are 27 days. Oil at Palembang is 468 x (232) and Balikpapan is 153 x (147). There are 27 centers repaired at each base.

The War Ministry has trouble with it's math, at times. [:D] Thus, these highly sensitive facts and figures are computed at the Economics Ministry.

[ny59giants]

Now for the Global view for 7 Oct '43

[ny59giants]

Next, a trip down to the docks to see what warships are beuing built.

[ny59giants]

Now a view of the Aircraft Production that is currently being built.

[ny59giants]

What John needs for future Aircraft Production - R & D