Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[ny59giants]

Now for the ground forces.

[n01487477]

Nice update Michael ...

My advice is to turn on the rest of the Merchant Shipyards and turn off most of the Armaments ...
Only 27K Arm is needed ... John has adequate supplies here ... 300 Arm factories building over 90days will maintain this level ... but I'd go more extreme, but that's just me.
Merchant shortfall (3k) is getting a little big...

Cheers.

[John 3rd]

I concur with the work Michael.  Damian consider your advice taken and I will implement it on the turn I'm currently working on right now.  Will post more later...
 

[John 3rd]

As the quote goes in one of my all-time favorite Sci Fi movies Aliens, "we're in the pipe five-by-five!"

[John 3rd]

I have a movement question as I get ready to post another screenshot.

My BBs are moving to Pagan.  I want to order them to bombard that island and then head for Tokyo Bay.  They move at 4/2 normally and the range from Pagan to Iwo is 8 hexes.  Question:

1.  If I set them to Full Speed, would they then hit Iwo the next turn and then sprint to Tokyo?
2.  Normal Speed would put them 2 hexes AWAY.
3.  Would it simply be better to have them return to Pagan so they move 4 hexes, bombard at night, and then about 4 hexes away from Iwo?

Could use some guidance...

[Jzanes]

IIRC, a bombardment TF will try to sprint in and bombard at night and then sprint away in the morning irregardless of what speed setting you give them. The thing to be concerned about is that they will start 4 hexes from Iwo and end 4 hexes away from Iwo giving the allies a chance to bomb them on both ends. Not sure about this mod, but 4 hexes is probably within torpedo range of any avengers based at Iwo. In addition, it seems that if your bombardment TF is attacked before they make their run, they will cancel the order and return to base. This might leave them in an exposed position depending on what route they make towards Tokyo bay.

I would consider making a bombardment TF composed of just 30 knot plus ships. That'll allow them to start 6 hexes out and end 6 hexes away. Much safer.

[John 3rd]

Here is the situation on October 11, 1943.

Summary:
1. The KB sits in the sea lane and plans to refuel on October 12th from a force of 6 AO at the hex designated on the map. It has yet to be spotted.
2. The BB TF is ordered to move up to Pagan for the Iwo Attack.
3. I form the BB-Hybrids into a TF for the same purpose but from Tokyo.
4. The 6 CVE will move to Pagan on the 12th and fly LR CAP over the BBs in addition to Pagan's planes.

The KB will see what the American Fleet does. Thinking:
1. If it continues east then I will decline battle with it since I am on a raid and NOT ready for the Decisive Battle.
2. I might make a 1 day move towards Midway and hit it as planned.
3. Once I nail Iwo with the BBs, Dan might not know what to do and I will move accordingly.

The hope is that the American Fleet will yo-yo while I hit Iwo and sink some ships around Midway.

Comments?

[John 3rd]

Jzanes--If I went along that path, then I would leave Mutsu and Nagato behind and run in with Yamato and the 3 BC.  That is still a potent force to fight with!  Need to think on it.
 
There are several CVE present in the area and I know they will have Avengers.
 
Course, I COULD move about 100 Betty into Tokyo and add some A6M3a's (Range 8) and try to take down those CVEs if the computer chooses the right target...
 

[Nemo121]

You are splitting your force again ( which is bad ) BUT if you insist on trying this then do it such that your ships begin and end the turn back within range of your land-based LRCAP. THAT is the safest way to do this ( also try to do it after the USN CVs abandon Iwo to try to hunt down your CV TF ).

[John 3rd]

Nemo--You are dead right and I am THINKING every turn right now.

I pulled Nagato and Mutsu and the TF could go 5/5 and thus stay out of range of Torpedo Aircraft. This is barring battle damage. Recon has shown that Iwo now has just a few STF present. There is a STF reported as DD/CA and a PT TF. At a minimum, the Iwo Attack Force shall consist of 1 BB, 3 BC, 3 CA, 5 CL, and 13 DD. Should be enough raise some Hell and disrupt things. My prime fear is mines. I have had none reported when I have placed SS there so I hope that is right.

I am waiting one more day based on spotting a TF moing west from north of Midway. The freshly fueled KB is moving NE which is nice since it is AWAY from the American Fleet. If I need, the KB can hit and run north to clear the area.

[Nemo121]

1 BB, 3 BC, 3 CA, 5 CL, and 13 DD
 
 
Have you given any thought to SC TF composition IF you are going to go in? Personally I prefer 8-ship TFs which, given your force disposition could be disposed as follows:
 
1. 1 BB, 3 BC and 4 DD
2. 3 CA 1 CL and 4 DD
3. 4 CL and 5 DD
 
Why 8? Simple, with 8 ships you pretty much guarantee all eight will enter combat and with 4 heavy ships and 4 DDs per TF you have enough heavy ships to put a hurt on the enemy with enough DDs to fight off enemy DDs which try to get in close for torpedo shots. If you have, for example, 4 BBs and 10 DDs you run the risk of bringing 1 BB and 8 DDs to combat while the other 3 BBs randomly sit out the battle. The Allies can afford such inefficient profligacy but Japan cannot. Japan is all about getting things done in the most efficient manner possible.
 
SC TFs normally engage in order of their TF numbers so IF you want the BBs to bombard AND you are SURE there are no enemy BBs present then if your CA TF is, for example, TF 35, your CL TF is TF 40 and your BB TF is 46 then the CA TF will engage enemy surface units first, your CL TF will mop up the light ships which survive and your BB TF should be able to bombard without using up all its OPS points in surface combat.
 
Obviously though IF your recon is wrong such a strategy will lead to disaster as a few enemy BBs can pound your non-BB TFs to smithereens. So, probably safest to go in with the BBs first.

Definitely pay attention to TF numbering though as it is of great important in surface battles when you have multiple SC TFs in the same hex at the same time.

[John 3rd]

Damn...Nemo I did not know that EITHER!  If anything else can be said for this AAR is that my learning has been fantastic through the reader's commentary.
 
Since I haven't ordered the attack yet I will check recon again with the next turn before the order is given.  I could factor a compromise by sending the attack in with 2 STF:
 
1 BC, 3 CA, 2 CL, and 6 DD and then
1 BB, 2 BC, 3 CL, and 7 DD
 
This should provide enough punch if needed for dealing with any heavies.  With Yamato being the slowest of the ships, I can set the first TF to follow the other and that way they stay together for the attack.  To be safe I can register each TF with LR CAP for their protection if anything happens. 
 
I am hoping to get an evening turn from Dan but doubt it.  Got a feeling the you-know-what will hit the fan tomorrow!  We'll see...
 

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
October 13, 1943

THREE locations.  Three battles to be joined...


Expectations run high in the Kaigun over Operation Nakri.  It has taken eight long weeks for the Fleet to sortie!  nearly 150 warships in all are sailing into harm's way.  Is this the right move?  Is ANY move the right one...


1.  Vice-Admiral Nagumo looks out over the curled fist of Japan's mighty Kido Butai and prepares for battle with this message to the 80+ warships centered on his 1st Carrier Division:

Attention Fleet:
 
Tomorrow the might and power of the Imperial Fleet will once again be displayed to the American Navy.  They have no idea that we are here.  To the west about 800 miles is the American Fleet.  We will strike hard and fast to lure them further eastwards as our brothers in their powerful Battleships rush to attack Iwo Jima.
 
Trust in your officers and leaders.  Your faith SHALL be rewarded!
 
Banzai!
 
Vc-Adm Nagumo Chuichi


2.  Rr-Adm Tanaka critically examines his powerful armada of warships.  He has elected to divide the 25 warships into two Task Forces:

TF10  1 BC, 2 CA, 2 CL, 6 DD
TF 77  BB Yamato (his Flagship), 2 BC, 1 CA, 3 CL, 7 DD

Just this afternoon nearly 200 Japanese army and navy fighters shot down all 6 Liberators sent their way from Iwo Jima.  Having just conferred with the Air Commanders, Tanaka knows that that same protection shall be over his TF's tomorrow and the day after.  The power of 9 18", 24 14", and numerous 8" guns are about to be turned on the American base at Iwo Jima...


3.  In a far different corner of the Japanese Empire, over 200,000 Chinese, Indian, and British troops surge across the mighty river that separates their side from the Fortress of Moulmein.  Artillery, rifles, grenades, stone knives, and bearskins await them as they cross!  The Allies take frightful casualties.  By the end of the day about 2,000 Japanese are killed or wounded while the Allies suffer a frightful 14,000 casualties.  The river runs red with their blood and they don't even come close to penetrating ANY of Moulmein's fortifications...


Thus as the sun sets across the width of Japan's Empire three battles are being or are about to be fought.  Only time will tell the results...

[John 3rd]

Here is the tactical situation that Nagumo finds himself in...

[John 3rd]

Here is the western half of the situation:

[castor troy]

How many TFs are there at Iwo? In my game against Swift I´ve got the problem that he uses so many TFs at a base that even with 10 or so tries I was never able to get a bombardment because my bombardment TFs used up all their op points fighting against TFs of 2, 3 or 4 MSWs, barges or other crap.

I have just lost BB Yamato that way. In fact, I lost the best IJN BB to barges. In the first engagement a lucky DD put one torp into Yamato, then there were the follow on engagements against barges and Co and when the op points were used up of course there was (like every time before) no bombardment, enabling the enemy airforce to launch all aircraft, sinking Yamato. Even though IMO this is just an exploit this always works in the game. You screw up the attack routine of your bombers AND you guard your bases against bombardments without having to fear losses. If you only use barges, you don´t even take losses that show up as victory points.

I doubt that your opponent is deliberately using this tactic (mine does) but if there are enough TFs there won´t be a bombardment at all. Sending in more TFs of your own most often doesn´t help as they just don´t engage all. At least not in my experience. A pity the developers didn´t think about such a tactic, IMO BBs / CAs / CLs on bombardment mission should just ignore everything smaller than a DD as there´s no sense attacking barges to use up all your op points. At least they should only engage ships that attack them, but not using up all ops points for shooting up barges or merchants, when their mission is to attack the base.

So be aware...

I don´t like the nuke bombardments either but if your opponent guards his bases with the described tactic then this doesn´t mean he can´t do nukes on your bases. So either you then use the same sh*tty tactic or you get nuked while his bases are immune because of exploiting the game engine.

[John 3rd]

Hey Castor.
 
Dan doesn't use barges but he does exploit PT-Boats.  In my attacks at Tori Shima, my TF run into an average of 4 PT groups with 4-8 PT/TF.  I've lost 4 DD and 3 more nearly sunk.  There is at least 1 PT TF at Iwo Jima.  I don't think it is right but figure it can be addressed in House Rules with AE.
 
We'll find out today as what he is doing.
 
 
 

[John 3rd]

Japanese Aerial Strike Force
October 14, 1943
 
Kido Butai Combat Log:
 
0530  Search planes launched from all heavy cruisers
 
0636  Enemy Dive Bomber spots Kido Butai
 
0645  CAP is raised to a total of 168 Zeke and 154 A6M3a
 
0658  Numerous American Task Forces Spotted
 
0712  Enemy Carrier Task Force Spotted (reported as 2 CV, 2 BB, and escorts)
 
0758  Inbound American Strike detected by Search Planes
 
0806-25  Strike Force launched from all carriers.  Total planes in attack wave:  98 Zero, 150 Dive Bomber, 126 Torpedo Bombers
 
0821  American Strike detected by radar
 
0828-0837  Entire American Strike is destroyed!  Nearly 100 American planes are shot down without Japanese AA having to open fire.  Japanese losses are a total of 6 Zero (2 M5/4 M3a)
 
0933  "Have American Carrier Force in Sight"
 
0942-47  Nearly 50 Hellcats attack the Japanese formation
 
0948  "All planes go in"
 
0948-1012  Strike Force attacks American Fleet
 
1015 Transmission from Strike Commander Fuchida:
 
Zephyr to Base.  Zephyr to Base.
 
Strike Force attacked and destroyed an American Carrier Task Force!  Have directly seen the following sinkings of one Essex-Class carrier believed to be the Intrepid, one Independance-Class Light Carrier, and one South Dakota-Class Battleship!  Heavy damage inflicted on two enemy Heavy Cruisers.  Am returning to base...
 
1135 Strike Force begins landing on Carriers.  Once tallied, total losses for attack are:  25 Zero (16 M5/9 M3a), 15 DB, and 13 TB.
 
1225  Transmission from Vc-Adm Nagumo to all Kido Butai Task Forces:
 
Immediately rearm all Strike Aircraft and prepare to attack undefended American forces.  All ships to proceed NE at normal speed.  Well done on morning Strikes and Defense of Fleet!
 
 

[John 3rd]

The Operation Nakryi is off to a GREAT start!

[Nemo121]

Good, a nice cheap victory. 59 planes for a CV, a CVL and a modern BB. As to rocking, perhaps, but it doesn't mean that I can get a game [:(] Any CVEs or slow BBs there? Any idea what was on the transports you sank?

Back to the topic though... Do you have a read on the location of the USN CV TF at Iwo? Is it a Iwo or a little west or what? If you know then it should be possible to calculate their maximum speed run east toward you and position yourself at the optimum spot to hurt their strike groups whilst allowing your own strike groups to kill undefended enemy transports etc. If I read the screenshot properly you ran into a CV TF which is being trailed ( over the next 120 miles eastward ) by 2 non-CV TFs ( probably transports, perhaps surface combat vessels ).

After thinking about this for a while I would suggest the following:
I'd expect his military vessels to run for Midway while his transports make for Iwo. They are probably ALL better off continuing to make for Iwo while the USN CVs sprint to their aid but most people seem to want to save military vessels ( since once they are sunk they are gona forever ) whilst being willing to risk ground units since even if 5% survive you can usually rebuild the ground unit once it reaches its destination. If you still have the turn I would suggest splitting your CVs with most of them heading NE but at least 1/3rd heading East with a view to killing any enemy surface vessels which try to run that way. That'll give you the biggest footprint for potential strikes tomorrow at negligible risk.

The day after tomorrow you can recombine your CVs by bringing the CV group which hunted the merchants south a bit and running the 1/3rd which went east back westward to rendezvous. This should be utterly safe since the USN CVs will be concentrating on linking up with the surviving enemy merchant vessels and will give your pilots 1 day to recover fatigue while you decide whether or not to tangle with the USN CV TFs.

Remember that while this is an tactical victory it also presents you with the opportunity to shape the field in your favour so as to attain an operational victory with strategic possibilities.