Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[USSAmerica]

Have a great vacation, Dan! [8D]

[NormS3]

Praying for something big like an Intrepid/Langley ambush of that little KB.  Great AAR!  Thanks for all the hard work. 
 
BTW what's going on with the English navy?  I know that you called off the one invasion, anything else planned?

[Canoerebel]

The community of WitP players sure is a nice group of young and middle-aged men (and reportedly a single woman, but certainly no old men).
 
The Royal Navy is docked at Colombo awaiting another CV fresh from Aden.  I'm awaiting the arrival of ground reinforcements at Aden (a bunch of those provisional armor units).  Once those arrive, all will embark and head for Ceylon, and then I'll put together the invasion of Andaman Islands (Port Blair).  That's the plan at the moment, anyhow.

[NormS3]

Yeah, I can definately agree with your assessment of the WITP community, but if there is a single woman out there she'd best stay quiet or she'd be beset by the many single men in here. [:D] For undoubtably she'd be the intellectual match many have been seeking.

Great to here that there are plans still in the works for the RN. Looks like it might be a good time for a southern push while you've got the IJN watching or raiding your supply lines.[8D]

Keep up the good work, eventually I will get the nerve up to play someone besides my father and the Artificial Idiot.

But yours has been a great struggle. I am glad to see you have stuck with the game after all those early defeats. I bet it had made your game all the sweeter to you. I know that it has been a joy to read!

[heenanc]

"Not Luzon.  Not Formosa.  Not Okinawa.  Kyushu - the southernmost of the Home Island."
 
Well I'd be careful I've read and AAR of a guy who stuck 300'000 troops on the home island's and they got wiped out after a number of turns a small amount maybe 15 -20 turns. Because Japan have a railroad everything on the island can be moved to the place required within 6 to 7 turns, if you believe there not a lot on the whole island then your good to go but if there's a lot in Tokyo or any where on the home islands then don't bother.
 
 

[USSAmerica]

The island of Kyushu is not connected to the rest of the Japanese home islands.  It's well within range of a LOT of enemy airfields, but there are only a few bases on Kyushu itself. 
 
This is one of he reasons it was targetted for invasion first by the Allies.

[Q-Ball]

You're probably right IRL, but in WITP, Kyushu definitely IS connected to the Home Islands via Imperial Railways between Kitakyushu and Nagato. Now, I am not sure how that connection is treated in combat; like a river hex perhaps?

I think it's doable though. Kitakyushu is a WOODS hex, a few divisions dug in can hold off quite a large IJA ARMY. At this point in the game, there are not likely to be more than a handful of divisions on the Home Islands. Alot depends on how many John has paid the PP points for and moved off. It's probably a safe bet he has moved off almost everything that is under a non-restricted command. Dan needs to figure out how many HOME ISLAND divisions are out of there:

AT START: 52, 53, 54th Inf. Div. Very likely, one or all are no longer in Japan.
RECENT REINFORCEMENTS: 42nd, 67th (not sure of #), 1st Gds Div. These could very well be there, but not near enough to dislodge a determined opponent.

There is not a significant Ground Reinforcement to the Home Islands between mid-43 and early 44. For quite a while in other words. I think this is way doable.

[USSAmerica]

I stand corrected, Q-Ball.  Looking at the map, Kyushu appears to not be connected, but I opened up a Japanese side scenario and was able to order a unit to march from Tokyo to one of the bases on Kyushu.  That's what I get for opening my mouth without ever even really looking at the Japanese side.  [:D]

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Kereguelen, thanks for the advice.  I hope you don't think I'm brassy for saying I'm not taking it.  There are a gazillion factors going into my decision.  The most important is that I don't want to devote the ships and infantry needed to take Wake or Marcus.  That would mean another endless round of mine hits and another Iwo-like ground battle (and I was lucky John didn't intervene at Iwo; I probably won't be lucky twice).  I don't mind the supply line situation, at least for the foreseeable future, and there's a good chance that John's carriers will attack in the meantime resolving the carrier sitaution one way or the other anyhow.  No, rather than using precious time, men and resources to work backwards, I'm going forward.  The Allies are looking ahead, not behind.

I have to say that Kereguelen is perfectly right with his oppinion and all I can see is a big mistake if you have Marcus and Wake in your supply line. He can fly in and out Betties at will and he will sink hundreds of your ships when they go to Iwo or even further without carrier escorts. You will lose far more ships with not taking Marcus and Wake. IMO this is a real problem. Your move on Iwo was nice but not taking those islands in your supply path now is something I would just dream about as the IJN high command.

[Cap Mandrake]

Castor Troy:

Of course you are right from a "classic secure one's line of supply" standpoint, but you forget the pure entertainment value. [:)]

The Army of Northern Virginia has crossed the Potomac and now they desire to create some more mischief and cross the Susquehanna.

A capture of Kyushu would cause the same crisis in oil flow to the home islands that Okinawa would accomplish.

BTW...doesn't an invasion of the Home Islands cause some kind of militia response and Kamikaze resposne in this mod?

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Castor Troy:

Of course you are right from a "classic secure one's line of supply" standpoint, but you forget the pure entertainment value. [:)]

The Army of Northern Virginia has crossed the Potomac and now they desire to create some more mischief and cross the Susquehanna.

A capture of Kyushu would cause the same crisis in oil flow to the home islands that Okinawa would accomplish.

BTW...doesn't an invasion of the Home Islands cause some kind of militia response and Kamikaze resposne in this mod?

IMO this will only result in entertainment for the Japanese. The Allied can crush the Japanese from mid 43 on but such moves really give the Japanese possibilities to hurt the Allied which they wouldn´t have otherwise.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Castor Troy:

Of course you are right from a "classic secure one's line of supply" standpoint, but you forget the pure entertainment value. [:)]

The Army of Northern Virginia has crossed the Potomac and now they desire to create some more mischief and cross the Susquehanna.

A capture of Kyushu would cause the same crisis in oil flow to the home islands that Okinawa would accomplish.

BTW...doesn't an invasion of the Home Islands cause some kind of militia response and Kamikaze resposne in this mod?

IMO this will only result in entertainment for the Japanese. The Allied can crush the Japanese from mid 43 on but such moves really give the Japanese possibilities to hurt the Allied which they wouldn´t have otherwise.

You are, of course, right again, but that is what I mean by entertainment value. There are a dozen threads where the Allies plod along methodically from island to island until the B-29's are ready, but Canoerebel's effort to take the game back is why so many people are reading this thread. I am rooting for the guy. [:)] I think he knows the risk he is taking. I think he also knows if he were to suffer a decisive carrier defeat it would be a catastrophe. That is why it is fun to read. Everyone likes gambling [:)]

If he goes back to take bases in his line of communication now he loses the initiative.

[castor troy]

It may be entertaining but it also may end up in PBEMs that get quit! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

9/28/43 to 9/30/43
 
Iwo Jima:  There hasn't been any sign of the KB.  As you may recall, John requested to back up a few turns to convert Jacks back to Zeros or Zekes, all the while threatening to unleash mayhem as soon as the transition was completed.  But it's been quiet.  The US carriers steamed in circles near Iwo for about five days, then returned to port, which had just increased to level 3.  The fleet will remain in port another day or two.  The airfield goes to level 5 tomorrow, so I'll be unloading additional aircraft - a squadron of P-38s and possibly more bombers.  The troops are recovering from the recent battle.  John has some subs north and east of the island picking off cripples as they return to Iwo after aborting the move to Midway (aborted because what appeared to be a Mini-KB raided the sea lane).  The Intrepid CV group remains on station NW of Midway.  All reinforcement convoys will arrive at Midway in two or three days and will then depart for Iwo, guarded by Intrepid, CVL Langley, and CVE Corrigedor.  These ships will rendezvous with the main carrier fleet somewhere between Midway and Iwo.

Operation Crescent Moon: No reinforcements detected at Kyushu - each city has three units, with the exception of one which has but two.  It is possible that John could be "luring" me into a trap - stationing major reinforcements just to the north.  I'll mull this over and carefully look over everything before I pull the trigger, but at this point my plan remains to invade this island.  That's at least a month off, however.

Elsewhere:  Aussie troops are moving north from Newcastle to Brisbane to feel out the Jap defenses; in Burma, the Allies are mulling over their next move now that Rangoon is in Allied hands; in China, things are quiet except on the northern front where the Japs should claim an unimportant base; in Vietnam, plenty of Chinese units are moving on Haiphong, but I don't have much hopes of accomplishing anything there.

Points:  The Jap points lead finally fell to slightly less than 2:1 - a vast improvement over the way things were not too long ago.

SitRep:  Other than Haiphong, the Allies won't be doing anything major until their ready to move out from Iwo in a month or so.  In the meantime, I'm simply battening down the hatches and awaiting John's move, which I think will happen either before or during the reinforcement convoy move to Iwo.

[Canoerebel]

10/1/43 to 10/5/43
 
Iwo Jima:  The surprising Japanese non-aggression continues.  No sign of the KB and friends.  Iwo's airfield went to level 5 on the 1st.  The infantry units are recovering nicely from the disruption and losses incurred during the invasion.
 
Reinforcement Convoy:  Several days ago, the convoy left Midway and headed NW to rendezvous with the CV Intrepid TF, but Bettys from Marcus have sighted a few of the transports.  I'm going to send the ships back towards Midway for a few days.
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  I've switched the units from prepping for Nada to prepping for bases on Kyushu.  Sure enough, John then began reinforcing Kyusha, continuing a vexing pattern present throughout the game (but from his perspective the threat to Kyushu must be apparent).  He's shifted units to the eastern cities, apparently leaving the rear cities weakly guarded at the moment.  Cursor intel reports 6 units at Nagasaki, but SigInt on the 5th indicated that amounts to just 7,698 men including 18th Reserve Coastal Artillery Regiment.  This operation can't go forward until the reinforcements arrive from Midway, and that is going to be a bit ticklish (not to mention the always-present threat of a major carrier/surface battle initiated by John).
 
Thailand:  Most of the units that went to Rangoon to rest and replenish are now at or near full strength.  Many of these are 100% prepped for Moulmein.  They are marching a hex to the north to join the army that's been posted across the river from Moulmein for months.  The combined AV should be something around 5,000 and I may try a river crossing.  Some of the units in Rangoon are prepped for Tavoy and I will toy with an invasion if that city looks weak. 
 
China/Vietnam:  The Chinese units are arriving at Haiphong en masse and found the garrision fairly weak:  5th Division, a mixed brigade, and three base forces.  Their AV is something like 700.  The Chinese should soon have on hand more than 4,000 although these had prepped for Hanoi and it will be a long time before they are prepped for Haiphong.  So I'm hoping to overwhelm with a vastly superior army.  The attack will take place in a day or two.  At the other end of China, the Jap expeditionary army took Paotow on the 2nd.

[Canoerebel]

10/6/43 to 10/10/43
 
Iwo and Vicinity:  The rather ticklish Allied operation to get the reinforcement convoy from Midway to Iwo is underway.  A Glen-equipped Jap sub west of Midway kept sighting various ships (mainly damaged ships returning to Midway from Iwo), and I sure don't want the Japs to be aware of the reinforcement convoy.  So I sent it north to a point where it is rendezvouing with the Intrepid CV TF and CVE Corregidor TF.  These ships will eventually move west.  At Iwo, I've created what I hope John will think is an invasion force.  It's actually some empty transports, all the carrier TFs, and a bunch of other TFs.  These are heading north and will make a feint toward Marcus, then move north to rendezvous with the reinforcment convoy.  All these ships will be in harm's way for quite some time, and Iwo will be in harm's way while the carriers are absent.  So this is an important operation.

Australia:  An Aussie army moving on Brisbane found that city occupied by only one infantry unit (20th Division) and launched a 1:1 attack with both sides suffering 1k casualties.  If John doesn't reinforce, the Aussies should be able to recapture this base, but we'll see.  A small detachment of Sparrow Force boarded a 3k AK and is going to scout out Tasmania, which I think the Japs vacated quite some time ago.

New Zealand:  Cursor Intel indicates the Japs have 5 units at Noumea (that could be 5 divisions or 5 base forces, but most likely a mixed brigade or SNLF and some support units).  Eventually I'll move on that hex, so I'm prepping all NZ units plus Americal Division (which has been posted in Wellington seemingly forever).  This won't get underway for a quite some time.

Thailand:  John noticed the massive Allied army across the river from Moulmein (AV is about 5950) and decided to give me some advice in his email: "Spotted all your victorious Rangoon troops.  I would REALLY like you to Shock Attack across that river to Moulmein!  Those troops are well supplied, fully dug-in, and will not retreat and/or be evacuated."  I'll give it a shot anyhow.

China:  The Chinese advance on Haiphong turned out badly - apparently the Japs can move troops from Hanoi to Haiphong, crossing the river in between, without provoking an auto-shock attack.  So John reinforced heavily and my one attack turned out badly.  Those units have been ordered to retreat.  I think I'll give up on any further efforts to advance in China, but I will air transport two or three of the units into the Burma theater where their brother units have performed important service.

[Canoerebel]

10/11/43 and 10/12/43
 
Operation Solar Flair:  This is another "decoy" operation - designed to bolster the impression I'm trying to give that the Allies could be moving on Marcus.  The "mock" invasion fleet with carrier escorts has moved well north of Iwo now (about six hexes), damaging two Jap subs on the way.  Tomorrow the fleet will move in the direction of Marcus.  Recon reported many Jap BBs at Pagan.  This is a good sign - I think it means the KB is parked there or close by, and I'd much rather have it there than sniffing around between Midway and Iwo, where a nice, juicy reinforcement/supply convoy is on the move.  At the moment, things look good.  I think the carriers from Iwo will be able to link up with the reinforcement convoy is a week or less.  The combined fleets will then return to Iwo, where the Allies will get serious about planning the next invasion (probably Kyushu).  Events in the meantime could take the initiative out of my hands (like a major carrier battle).  (Also, Bettys sortied from Marcus in small numbers, and 15 went down against the 248 Hellcat CAP.)
 
Australia:  A red-letter day for the Allies.  An Aussie army recaptured Brisbane (hoorah!), which had been largely evacuated by the Japs.  Most of this army will pursue the retreating enemy toward Rockhampton.  In Tasmania, the Sparrow force detachment reclaimed Devonport (hooray!).
 
Burma:  The Allied army will cross the river and attack Moulmein tomorrow.  The Chinese units at Rangoon (well over 1000 AV) are prepping for Tavoy.  Brit units at Colombo and Diamond Harbor are prepping for Port Blair.  These operations will get underway in the not-too-distant future.
 
China:  Quiet.
 
Points:  The loss of Brisbane and Devonport cost the Japs 2600 points.  The score is now 41,893 (Japs) to 22,691.

[Canoerebel]

10/13/43 and 10/14/43
 
Reinforcement Convoy:  The KB intercepted my reinforcement convoy with disastrous results for the Allies.  This KB came with enough to put put a CAP of 168 Zeke and 154 Zeros (which easily handled the Allied carrier strike of 21 Hellcats, 32 TBF/M, and 34 SBD) plus arrange for an initial strike of 96 Judy, 21 Jill, 54 Vals, 105 Kates, 56 Zekes, 46 Zeros that handled the CAP of 49 Hellcats.  CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, BB Alabama, and 3 AKs (one carrying a 72-plane P-47 squadron) went under.  CL Salt Lake City and CVE Corregidor were damaged.
 
The US CV force was 13 hexes to the SW (rendezvous would have occurred in  just a few days; I'm not sure if John was aware of the location of the big transport convoy - I didn't see any sightings over the past five or six days - or just got lucky, but another day or two and it would have been too late).  I've ordered the CVs plus the surface combat force to steam full speed NE about 8 hexes, hoping that they can come to the aid of the transports (the balance of the carrier convoy - the CVEs, the slow BBs, and miscellaneous merchants and replenishment ships) will steam to the west and try to avoid action.
 
I "assume" John won't want his carriers to tangle with the main US fleet (he lost 18 Zekeks, 13 Zeros, 9 Judys, and 13 Kates, so he may feel that he isn't at full-strength, which I think he'd want to be at to take on all the Hellcats the carriers can put up).  So I think he'll sail NW, N, or NE.  I have a TK TF and a transport TF carrrying an army division NE of the KB, so I've ordered them to steam east.
 
John has outfoxed me again, drat him.
 
Burma:  The Allied army of Burmese, Chinese, Indian, and British troops crossed the river and assaulted the Jap army at Moulmein on the 13th.  The 0:1 shcok attack found the Japs entrenched with 9 forts, and the allies lost 13,710/220/53 to 2784/81/1.  I expected to take high losses on the initial assault; on the plus side, all my units crossed together and will rest while the airforce hits the Jap units.  It will take a long time to capture this hex, but the Allies will do so eventually.  I hope that while the Allies and Japs are pinned together at Moulmein, the Royal Navy can put together an invasion of Tavoy, but John may reinforce that base.
 

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/13/43 and 10/14/43

Reinforcement Convoy: The KB intercepted my reinforcement convoy with disastrous results for the Allies. This KB came with enough to put put a CAP of 168 Zeke and 154 Zeros (which easily handled the Allied carrier strike of 21 Hellcats, 32 TBF/M, and 34 SBD) plus arrange for an initial strike of 96 Judy, 21 Jill, 54 Vals, 105 Kates, 56 Zekes, 46 Zeros that handled the CAP of 49 Hellcats. CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, BB Alabama, and 3 AKs (one carrying a 72-plane P-47 squadron) went under. CL Salt Lake City and CVE Corregidor were damaged.

Do you remember my post about your open supply lane (posted two weeks ago in this thread)? Well, doesn't help now. Some things to consider:

(1) It seems that KB has embarked at least 224 Zekes and 200 Zeros. That is an awful lot of fighter planes (and - if my math is correct - more fighter planes than found in organic IJN carrier fighter wings). It will be hard to break your opponents' CAP umbrella. Thus you should only go for a decisive battle if you can make sure that you can count on some additional land-based planes (Lightnings and Mitchells).

(2) It is always a bad idea to load a whole fighter group on a single AK. In the future you should split groups into three squadrons and load them on separate AK's. And/or use CVE's to transport them and let them fly from the CVE's once into range of their destination base.

(3) Take Wake and/or Marcus - once you exactly know were KB is. Start preparing divisions, tank battalions and combat engineer regiments for this now. It will cost you time, yes. But invading Kyushu, Formosa or Luzon is out of question anyway.

K

[Q-Ball]

I think one lesson learned there is to not divide CVs into small forces. That little CV TF was too small to help much, and too big to lose. If you can't put up 150 planes on CAP, then you're better off not committing flattops that can get pasted. He got you back for Indian Ocean.

Allied Victory still inevitable though.