Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

10/15/43 to 10/18/43
 
After the Mid-Pacific Carrier Battle:  While the Allied carriers, combat ships, and transports (most of them anyhow) headed toward Iwo Jima, John sent his carriers after some cripples and a few TFs that headed east; he also sent a combat TF after transports, with initial success but ultimate anhilation.  On the 15th, the KB picked off a few insignificant ships (an already crippled AK and a DE) and applied the coup-de-grace to the mortally wounded CVE Casablanca.  On the 16th, a combat TF led by CA Kumano intercepted a replenishment convoy, sinking a few DEs, but otherwise not doing much.  On the 17th, the KB caught up with an 8-ship TK convoy and sank or mortally wounded all of them.  But the Kumano TF ended up within range of the US CVs.  CL Natori took 3 TT and 4 bombs; CL Sendai 2 TT and 6 B; CA Kumano 6 TT and 10 B; and four DDs were sunk or badly damaged.  The KB continued moving SE toward Midway (and is about 10 hexes NW as of the 18th), but it doesn't look like she'll be able to pick off the last plum - heavily damaged CA Salt Lake City is now within LRCAP range of the base.  So, the final (or nearly final) tally for this big battle:  The Allies lose CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, CVE Casablance, BB Alabama, 8 TKs, three or four AKs, two crated fighter squadrons, and a few DEs.  The Japs lose CA Kumano, CL Sendai, CL Notori, and probably 3 of the four damaged DDs.
 
Iwo Jima:  While the U.S. carriers were away, John sent in his big BBs against Iwo four successive days.  I was concerned about the surface combat fleet left to guard the base - it had plenty of fast BBs (five, I think), but was lightl on CAs, whereas John has vast numbers of BBs and CAs.  So for three days I sent my combat ships a hex out of port each night, and a cargo TF carrying crated aircraft spent this period a hex away under LRCAP provided by one squadron of Corsairs.  So the defense of Iwo Jima was left largely to PT boats, which did an incredible job.  On the 16th, the PTs sank a DD while two PTs went under and on the 17th, 11 PT boats went down, but the fiesty ships put a TT into BB Ise, 2 into DD Satsuka, and another into DD Nenohi (which later took another TT from a sub. Ise and Hyuga also took 500 pounders from PBY4s out of Iwo, but they caused deminimus damage.  John's ships damaged many cargo ships in port at Iwo, though only one or two may sink.  Then things really heated up on the 18th:
 
Naval Battle of Iwo Jima:  This time I decided to leave my combat ships at Iwo.  The Japs returned for another raid, with many BBs including Yamato, Hiei, Haruna, and Kongo.  There were two rounds of capital ship combat, three rounds with PTs, and then the aftermath with LBA and subs:
 
Round 1:  The Allied TF came out on top, scoring four hits on CA Hagura and setting her afire.  DD Sheranuki took six hits and heavy damage.  Other Japs ships were lightly hit.  On the Allied side, the only ship hit hard was DD Brownson, which took a TT and is afire.
 
Round 2:  The two fleets really fought this time.  BB Haruna 4 hits afire; BB Hiei 3 afire; CA Hagura 5 and heavy damage; CA Aoba 4 and on fire; CLs Kinu, Kuma, and Abukima afire; four DDs heavily damaged.  On the Allied side, BB Indiana took 3 hits afire; CA Pensacola 3 TT and heavily damaged; CL Perth and CL St. Louis some hits and a TT each and both afire; and two DDs heavily damaged.
 
Round 3:  3 PTs put another TT in BB Haruna.  No PTs damaged.
 
Round 4:  3 PTs put 3 TTs in DD Hamikaze, which sinks.  No PTs damaged.
 
Round 5:  5 PTs put a TT into CL Kuma and 2 into DD Minegumo, which sinks.  No PTs sunk.
 
Aftermath:  Air strikes inflict more damage on CL Kuma and CA Aoba; BB Haruna takes four more 500 pounders, which probably didn't affect her (but she made just one hex on the day, so she's hurt bad).  Then SS Haddock put 3 TT into CL Kinu and she went under. 
 
Results:  This battle was an decisive Allied victory.  CA Pensacola should go down, but no other ships suffered even moderate damage.  On the Jap side, BB Haruna will either sink or is out of the war a long time; BB Hiei is probably out for a little while; CAs Hagura and Aoba are either mortally wounded or dry-dock bound; CLs Kinu, Abukima, and Kuma either went under or should be out of the war; and five DDs went under.
 
What does it all mean:  The Allied loss of Intrepid, Langley, Casablanca, and Alabama was painful, but they died protecting an important convoy that will soon reach Iwo, relatively unscathed (yes, I lost 10 tankers and a few AKs carrying crated aircraft, but this convoy is huge, and none of the troops ships was touched).  The loss of the capital ships hurts, but the arrival of the convoy is important.  Moreover, this directly led to two battles in which the Japs may have lost a BB (Haruna), two CAs (Kumano and Hagura), five CLs, and 5 DDs, with BBs Hiei and Ise and CA Aoba damaged.  That's enough that the carrier battle no longer is so painful.  So, the Allies plan to unload everything at Iwo and then hold on tight while I see if the KB takes any further offensive action.  IE, the Allies won't go anywhere in the short term.
 
Australia:  Having liberated Brisbane, the Aussie army will reach Rockhampton in two or three days.  I don't yet know how strongly held this city is.
 
Burma:  The multitude of armored unit reinforcements arrived in Aden, embarked on transports, and are headed for Colombo.  About half are prepping for Port Blair, the other half for Tavoy.  CVE Battler arrived too, and will join the main RN concentration at Colombo.  The invasion of Port Blair should take place within the month.

[String]

You should be able to use PT's to intercept the Haruna in the open seas if she only moves 1 hex per turn. Unless, you ofcourse have a houserule against that.

[veji1]

I hate PTs...

Congrats for this good victory, trying to bomb Iwo was crazy IMO, but blowing it because of PTs, utter frustration..

[saj42]

ORIGINAL: veji1

I hate PTs...

Congrats for this good victory, trying to bomb Iwo was crazy IMO, but blowing it because of PTs, utter frustration..

Ah but the first battles were fought by the main surface units, only then followed up by PT actions - a correct and justifiable situation.
Now if the defense was only based on multiple PT TFs to disrupt the games handling of Bombardment missions then I too might not be pleased....

[Canoerebel]

10/19/43
 
Battle of Iwo:  There wasn't any further action at Iwo, this turn, but CA Pensacola succumbed to her wounds.  To the south, SS Sealion put a torpedo into BB Haruna and another into BB Hiei, and sub Seahorse put two into CA Haguro.  I think Haruna and Haguro will go down, and I think Hiei is out of the war for a long time.  The reinforcement convoy will arrive at Iwo in a few days, including an MLE so that the Allies can mine this base (forgetting to include an MLE in the original invasion force was a major oversight by the Supreme Allied Commander).  The Allies will have well over 800 ships at Iwo, so I'm going to have to send alot back under cover of the carriers.  Iwo just went to level 4 port and is 70% to level 6 airfield.  Tori Shima is about 60% to a level 1 airfield (having Tori Shima and Chichi Jima is a big help - Iwo isn't nearly as "isolated" with those two islands in Allied hands).
 
Australia:  The Aussie army will begin arriving at Rockhampton tomorrow.
 
Burma:  The Allied army besieging Moulmein bombarded, inflicting 400+ casualties.  Allied bombers from Rangoon and Meiktila strike daily.  Eventually, the Allies will get the upper hand here, but it could be many months.
 
Points:  Japs 43,400; Allies 23,400.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Tallyho!

ORIGINAL: veji1

I hate PTs...

Congrats for this good victory, trying to bomb Iwo was crazy IMO, but blowing it because of PTs, utter frustration..

Ah but the first battles were fought by the main surface units, only then followed up by PT actions - a correct and justifiable situation.
Now if the defense was only based on multiple PT TFs to disrupt the games handling of Bombardment missions then I too might not be pleased....

I agree. PT boats coming in to attack major surface forces at night shortly after their engagement with enemy capital ships would be a very sensible use of the asset. John has got to be one very unhappy individual with the apparent loss of two BB's..despite his successes further East, especailly if the airfield is intact on Iwo.

I do wonder where exactly would you anchor 800 ships off Iwo. [:)] It is a volcanic island so I suspect the bottom drops off
quite steeply off shore and there would not be much protection for ships.

Of course, the same could be said for having many many thousands of mines off the island when the Allies showed up. Where would they be anchored.

The game needs some type of anchoring limit based on the size of a port and some kind of mine limit except perhaps for esutarial hexes.

[Canoerebel]

When the Allies invaded Iwo Jima in real life in February 1944, all ships had to remain offshore.  Whatever little dock or quay existed would have been of little use (and that, if IIRC, was on the northern end of the island, the last part taken).  To my knowledge, there isn't any real "port" at Iwo.  So, in the game the Allied ships are actually anchored (or floating) offshore, "protected" by proximity to shore guns and the airfield and the Allied combat ships stood between them and the Japs.  That's a reasonable scenario, so I have no problem with the Allies having hundreds of ships at Iwo. 

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake
The game needs some type of anchoring limit based on the size of a port and some kind of mine limit except perhaps for esutarial hexes.

You'll get your wish in AE. Tonnage Limits for every port. I bet Iwo will not allow that type of anchorage in AE.

But this is WITP. Totally kosher to have that many ships there.

Do you have a Fleet HQ and/or ARs at Iwo? If not, you should probably pack that next reinforcement trip. That will aid you in repairing damage there.

[Canoerebel]

I have both there.  I brought everything in existence when I invaded...except an MLE. 

[anarchyintheuk]

For that you don't get your amphibious invasion merit badge. [:D]

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have both there. I brought everything in existence when I invaded...except an MLE.

After Johns latest experience of bombarding Iwo, I doubt you'll need it there anytime soon. [;)]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When the Allies invaded Iwo Jima in real life in February 1944, all ships had to remain offshore.  Whatever little dock or quay existed would have been of little use (and that, if IIRC, was on the northern end of the island, the last part taken).  To my knowledge, there isn't any real "port" at Iwo.  So, in the game the Allied ships are actually anchored (or floating) offshore, "protected" by proximity to shore guns and the airfield and the Allied combat ships stood between them and the Japs.  That's a reasonable scenario, so I have no problem with the Allies having hundreds of ships at Iwo. 

Yes, Iwo has no habor, but it is worse than that I suspect. If it is a volcanic island with a quick drop off to deep water, where would 800 ships physically drop anchor? Big vessels would need large spacing between them and there is the problem of how deep one could anchor. Plus, at best, only one side of the island could really offer some protection at any one time.

I am not faulting you for it, it is WITP [:)] In our game, Lord Admiral Tabpub made me stop sending PT boats across the Arafua Sea from Darwin to raid Timor using a single AK as a refueling vessel. He felt it was kind of gamey and we are on the same side. I didn't have a good answer for him [:D]

[veji1]

I am not saying the use of PTs in this instance was unfair, it was perfectly within the spirit, I was more "feeling" John's frustration and slightly doubting the validity of his plan.. 

[Canoerebel]

10/20/43 to 10/21/43
 
Iwo Jima:  Things have settled down and the reinforcement convoy will arrive tomorrow.  This convoy includes three divisions, two RCT, various other land units, supplies, fuel, and the all-important MLE.  Iwo is 87% to level 6 airfield.
 
The Japs:  A sub took a shot at a TF including CVL Ryujo, but missed.  There were several sightings of what appears to be the KB, and all indications are that she is returning to Saipan.  At the moment, I prefer that the KB is stationed there, as opposed to Japan.  Allied subs stationed around Saipan and Pagan torpedoed a few more DDs, but that was about it for the aftermath of the Naval Battle of Iwo Jima.  John apparently hasn't yet scuttled those two CS and three DDs mortally wounded by Iwo's LBA back around September 20 (just before he requested a do-over turn to corrects his Jacks on carriers snafu).  I've reminded him, so I hope he'll carry through.
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  It will soon be time to make a final decision as to the next Allied objective.  The eight divisions on Iwo (plus vairous other units) are prepping for Sasebo, which is currently occupied by 3 Jap units according to cursor intel.  SigInt claims there are 123,317 Japs at Kagoshima, so that's a concern.  There are 62,558 at Naha.  I like the idea of invading Kyusha, but if it looks too chancey, what would be the next options?  Probably Marcus Island, Hokkaido, Okinawa, Formosa, Luzon, and Eniwetok.
 
The most interesting of these options is Hokkaido.  On the plus side, it's remote and could put the KB out of position.  Early movement of the Allied fleets from Iwo and Midway would just look like another operation to reinforce Iwo, just like the most recent one.  The fleets would combine and Hokkaido isn't that far off, and the move might leave the KB threat behind for awhile.  Too, SigInt hasn't disclosed any Jap reinforcement of Hokkaido.  The down side is, however, that Hokkaido is indeed remote and throws Allied momentum off on a direction that I'm not sure is best for the long run.  It's just something I'm mulling over, and right now Hokkaido is rated an unlikely target.
 
Australia:  The Aussie army has arrived at Rockhampton, which appears weekly held.  The Jap 20th Division, which retreated from Brisbane, apparently took the road across Australia, bound in all likelihood for Darwin and transfer to another theater (that's my best guess).  I think Rockhampton will fall within a week.
 
New Caledonia:  Cursor intel reveals 9 Jap units at Noumea, which is more than the cursor revealed previously.  The Kiwis and Aussies don't have the naval strength to handle an invasion of that magnitude.  But I'm wondering about Koumac, followed by a march across the island to Noumea.  But that operations is weeks or months away.
 
CBI:  Allied reinforcements are on the way from Aden to Colombo, and from Taung Gyi to Rangoon (two Chinese units prepping for Port Blair and marching overland to port).  This operation could be ready in three or four weeks.  Recon reports some 9 units 27,000 strong at Port Blair.  I'm guessing a mixed brigade plus support.
 
 

[castor troy]

If the ships aren´t over 90 damage he CAN´T scuttle them. If he has agreed to lose those ships, then he has to send them to your base to be finished off by your bombers...

[String]

Sigint gives faulty data when static devices are present (large coastal defence guns usually). Number of men is derived from load cost, in the case of all other squads the load cost is proportional to the number of men, but in case of the static devices the load cost is astronomical.. 9999 afaik. So you get giant numbers reported for the places that have static coastal defence guns, such as truk, saipan, and most HI ports.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, String.  Somebody mentioned that before, but I had forgotten (and haven't quite gotten a good mental grip on how that will work).  John has seriously reinforced Kyushu though.  Three weeks ago there were a total of about 8 units spread between four bases.  Now there are 9 at Kagoshima, 8 at Nagasaki, 1 at the base at the NW tip, and 3 at Sasebo.  So invading Kyushu is a "different animal" entirely, now.
 
I know that Eniwetok is lightly held (SigIn recently reported less than 5,000 troops there, but of course it's nested in the middle of Jap territory and I'd face the KB on it's home court.  Marcus is surely garrisoned and mined to the max, and the KB would probably defend it, but at least its pretty far from other Jap bases and not too far from Midway.  Okinawa and Formosa are possibilities, because they offer many of the benefits of Kyushu, but not the big drawback of land access and rail links to the big Jap cities.  Luzon, I don't think is viable - it's strongly garrisoned now.  Hokkaido might not be strongly held now (I don't think so, but I'm not positive), but it takes me away from the SRA and other key areas.  Lots to mull over, but nothing will happen in the near term, so I have time to mull.

[pat.casey]

If you take formosa, that plus IWO, pretty much cuts him off from the SRA, doesn't it? Unless he wants to run his convoys on a LONG dogleg through pagan and the marianas to reach Japan from the northeast, his economy is doomed at that point, neh?

Right now he can probably sneak convoys in between formosa and the coast under air cover and your air force on Iwo can't stop them. If you have formosa as well though, he convoy routes are pretty much toast I'd think. Not to mention all the bases you can hit with LBA from there.

[Canoerebel]

With just Iwo, John won't have any trouble getting convoys from SRA to Japan.  Even if I took Okinawa, Formosa, Luzon, or Kyushu, it would take me awhile to gain control of the air and sea lanes, so for awhile he would be able to sneak ships through (either in small groups, or by hugging the China coast for LRCAP and then sprinting when he had to).  But after awhile, the Allies would gain control of the air and therefore the sea lanes.  The problem is taking a base (or two, or three) in the first place.  John is rapidly re-deploying his army to counter this threat (and therefore is in full retreat, as best I can tell, from his forward bases in Australia, and probably in some of the eastern-most islands that he holds).  In fact, I think John's concern about this area at risk persuaded him to pull back from Rangoon - far sooner than I think he needed to.  I think he wanted to get more troops closer to home. 
 
It will soon be time for the Allies to move forward, but I don't think it's going to be easy.

[Q-Ball]

RE: Allied Intelligence, during a game in which I played as Japan vs. the AI, I looked at the Allied Sigint files, because I wanted to know how accurate those things would be if I ever played Allies as PBEM. I also wanted to know what kind of intel the Allies got. Comparing the messages to reality, I found in general (and this is HIGHLY unscientific so I may be wrong):

Unit locations were highly accurate
Units preparing to attack X reports were highly accurate
# of Men stationed at, however, was LESS accurate; some reports were way off. There is some FOW there.
Radio Transmissions were pretty much useless.

RE: CONVOY ROUTES, the only sure way to interdict convoys is Formosa/Okinawa. He could LRCAP from China, but loaded TK's don't take much to sink, a single bomb hit is sometimes all it takes. Iwo really does nothing to interdict convoys, other than it does allow the occasional raid, and you might get lucky and nail an Oil convoy.

One side benefit though is that you can probably predict his convoy routes now, so an aggressive sub campaign might pay some dividends.