Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Cap Mandrake]

Don't mull too long...you will need, at a minimum, 60 days of prep time to get your landing force ready for what is certain to be a well-contested landing...90-100 d would be better. If you have an embarassment of ground forces, you could start prepping for your best two choices and decide later.

You can also yank his chain with false recon activity...but dont make it too obvious or he will know it is a sham..unless he decides you want him to think that.....[;)]

[Canoerebel]

In all likelihood the target will be either Kyushu, Okinawa, or Formosa.  My troops have been prepping for weeks for targets on the first two islands, and I have more infantry than I could possibly carry.  It will be tough going at the outset, but by D-Day it will be very late 1943, and the quality of Allied fighters and bombers ought to mean that the Allies can control the air once an airbase is secured.  This will be a tough battle, but so be it.  Onward! 

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

RE: CONVOY ROUTES, the only sure way to interdict convoys is Formosa/Okinawa. He could LRCAP from China, but loaded TK's don't take much to sink, a single bomb hit is sometimes all it takes. Iwo really does nothing to interdict convoys, other than it does allow the occasional raid, and you might get lucky and nail an Oil convoy.

Kyushu would certainly do it too. Even a Chinese port on the East China Sea or South Korea might do it if you threw in submarines. Recon aircraft, 2 dozen subs and some Heavies to fly naval interdication could make life miserable for him.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

RE: CONVOY ROUTES, the only sure way to interdict convoys is Formosa/Okinawa. He could LRCAP from China, but loaded TK's don't take much to sink, a single bomb hit is sometimes all it takes. Iwo really does nothing to interdict convoys, other than it does allow the occasional raid, and you might get lucky and nail an Oil convoy.

Kyushu would certainly do it too. Even a Chinese port on the East China Sea or South Korea might do it if you threw in submarines. Recon aircraft, 2 dozen subs and some Heavies to fly naval interdication could make life miserable for him.

Right, Kyushu cutting off the SRA is a given. It's just an ambitious target is all. That is also true about Korea/China, but I wouldn't recommend a landing there at all. The last thing you want to do as US is to get into a land war on China, where the Japanese can bring the entire China or Kwantung command to bear. Setting up a base in Korea or China is a bad idea, unless the Chinese are already there to defend the base.

[Canoerebel]

10/22/43 to 10/28/43
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  After taking a careful look at John's troop numbers on Kyushu, and with the benefit of my experience invading Kyushu in my game with Miller, I have decided to switch this invasion target to Formosa with Luzon as an alternative.  John holds Kyushu too strongly to allow a quick conquest, and can bring reinforcements in too quickly to justify a sustained Allied offensive there at this time.  Formosa offers many of Kyushu's advantages (multiple big bases and airfields), but cannot be reinforced nearly as quickly and should be more lightly held.  So I've halted prepping for Kyushu and begun Formosa.  I'll need a month or six weeks of prepping and organization, so D-Day won't be until toward the end of the year.  If I can seize one or two big bases on Formosa, I'll be sitting astride John's major supply line and Allied air is formidable by January 1, 1944.

Australia:  The Allies took Rockhampton on October 24.  Most of the Jap units had already withdrawn.  Now the Aussies are moving toward Cloncurry and Townsville.  On the 21st, Sparrow force detachment took Hobart, so Tasmania is once again in Allied hands.  To the east, there are now 11 Jap units at Noumea, another increase.  John may be sending his Australian troops that way.  I'm not interested in taking on a Jap bastion in that area at this time, but if the invasion of Formosa draws away all the Jap ships, perhaps the Kiwis and Aussies will strike somewhere else in the region (the Aussies are sorely short of combat ships, so any invasion will be limited to transports and minesweepers).

CBI:  British Empire ships and troops continues to move toward various ports (Colombo, Madras, and Rangoon) in preparation for the invasion of Port Blair.  The transports should be ready to embark within a week.  A stout Chinese army at Rangoon is prepping for Tavoy, and will be ready to invade there as soon as the transports finish at Port Blair.  Hitting Savoy will threaten to cut off the Jap army at Moulmein, and may force John to abandon that town.  That's the wishful/optimistic thinking in Allied HQ at the moment.

[Canoerebel]

10/29/43 to 11/6/43
 
Operation Sun Spot:  The Port Blair invasion fleet sails from Colombo tomorrow.  Cover will be provided by four RN CVs, a CVL, and a CVE, plus a stout combat TF.  The ground force is a sort of cobbled together hodgpodge consisting of many small infantry units and a multitude of the little provisional armor units.  I have additional troops in reserve at Rangoon, if needed.  Recon shows 27,500 Japanese troops at Port Blair, so it may take awhile to take the base.
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  Allied troops continue prepping for the invasion of Formosa.  Most of the troops are stationed at Iwo, but I have additional troops available now at Midway, Pearl Harbor, and the West Coast.  The only question is whether it's worth the effort to send the US CVs back that way on escort duty, or whether I should simply move forward from Iwo.  I'll probably choose the former course as that will allow me to link up with additional carriers that have arrived at Pearl Harbor.  I have time since I want my troops prepped adequately for the two Formosa bases that I have targeted.  D-Day is probably 30 to 40 days away.
 
US CVs:  The U.S. CVs left Iwo for the second raid on Honshu.  This time Tokyo was the target and I waited for good weather (last time bad weather prevented any strikes against Osaka).  I had the bombers set for naval strike/port strike.  They sortied, but the only ship they hit was a single minelayer.  It was a big waste of time (300 aircraft vs. a minelayer?).  But if you're going to waste a big strike against a single ship, an ML is a pretty good single victim.
 
Australia:  The Aussie army continues to advance, taking Townsville on the 5th; Charters Towers should fall tomorrow.  The Japs have pulled out of northeastern Australia.  This campaign has been curious and I think both sides are justifiably pleased.  The Japs are able to withdraw their forces intact and without getting cut off; the Aussies have been able to reclaim territory on their own, without any help from the USA.  That's good because the USA is fully committed and has no intention of diverting forces to Australia at this late date in the game.  IE, John could have held Australia without threat of being cut off for quite some time yet, because the Aussie's weren't strong enough to give the Japs battle.

[castor troy]

Haven´t you seen a dark anchor at Tokyo? If not, why did you attack? [:D]

[Canoerebel]

There were many ships in port at Tokyo.  I'm not sure why my bombers selected just the ML.  Fortunes of war.

[Q-Ball]

That is a very strange result on the port raid. Every time I have raided a port, multiple ships were hit. It's very easy to HIT ships, just not too easy to SINK them.

The other point to that campaign is to remind John that basing the IJN in the Home Islands isn't a viable option. I doubt any ships of value will be docking in Tokyo anytime soon. That's the main point. That is a problem for Japan, because it limits repair facilities to Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and those will become vulnerable from the other direction after B-29s are in play.

[Canoerebel]

11/7/43 to 11/10/43
 
Operation Sun Spot:  The invasion force is approaching Port Blair, but I'm not sending the troops in quite yet.  I'm worried that John has had more than sufficient time to come up with countermeasures.  I don't think he has carriers in the area, but mines are likely and a big combat TF a possibility.  So tomorrow a minesweeping TF and a combat TF will head to Andaman Islands, while the carriers and transports will take station a hex to the west.  Some carrier-based fighters will fly LRCAP over the island, joined by some P-38s from Rangoon.  Massed waves of Lib-IIIs from Rangoon have hit a variety of Jap airbases over the past two weeks, including Bangkok, Hanoi, and Port Blair; the most recent strike of 100 bombers hit Port Blair yesterday and John doesn't appear to have any aircraft based there.
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  Recon aircraft have flown over Tokyo and Osaka and tomorrow will give Nagasaki a look.  Otherwise, the troops are simply prepping as we wait to the clock to tick down to departure day.  No signs of further reinforcements at Formosa at this time.
 
Iwo Jima:  The ML has been hard at work and this base now has 7,000+ mines.  When Operation Crescent Moon commences, I think John will throw everything he has against it; but there is a slight chance he could instead rely on the existing troops + LBA to contest the invasion while sending the KB and a big invasion against Iwo.  Like I said, there's only a small chance of that, but I'll feel better when the base has 20k to 30k mines.  I'd also like to get Tori Shima mined, but that will have to wait.  Tori is 73% to level one airfield.  John will be really hacked when I can base P-38s and long-range recon aircraft that far forward.  While I don't expect an invasion of Iwo, I'd rate the chances of a move on Tori as at least 50/50.  I have a RCT and a parachute batallion there with 6 forts.
 
Australia:  The Aussies have recaptured Charters Towers and Cairns and are moving toward Cloncurry and Cooktown.  Further south, it appears that Broken Hill and Adelaide are still strongly held.

[Canoerebel]

11/11/43 to 11/13/43
 
Operation Sun Spot:  D-Day for the British Empire troops was the 12th.  Port Blair was mined after all, but over two days of landings thus far, damage has been fairly light (putting CLs and DDs into the troop transport convoys definately helps absorb the sting of shore guns).  There hasn't been any appearance by Japanese combat ships, but the Jap airforce put in an appearance, and the results have been gratifying from an Allied point of view.
 
On the 12th, Jap strikes sortied mainly from Victoria Point - well over 100 aircraft that targeted primarily the carriers.  On the day, the Japs lost 123 aircraft (95 a2a, 18 flak, 10 ops) to the Allies' 43 (40 a2a, 3 ops).  I was disappointed my bombers targeting Victoria Point didn't sortie from Rangoon, but John apparently perceived this as a lack of intent, so he loaded up Victoria Point and Tavoy for the 13th.  This time, the Allied bombers did fly in massive numbers and destroyed 167 Jap aircraft, mostly on the ground (33 a2a, 122 field, 1 flak, 11 ops).  On the 13th, the Allies lost just 16 aircraft.  So, over the past two days, the Japs have lost 290 aircraft, the Allies 59.  John has temporarily abandoned those airfields.  None of the Jap bombers scored hits on the RN fleet.
 
On the ground, the troops have come ashore with minimal disruption.  The Allies thus far have about 850 AV on the ground.  The defenses look like 16th Division/A and four smaller guards types units with an AV of about 400.  They'll be dug in so, I'll probably have to bring some reinforcements from Rangoon.  I won't try a deliberate attack until all the troops have unloaded.
 
Thus far, though, I think this is the most well-managed invasion I've attempted in my two games (as far as getting the troops ashore with minimal losses).  Having Rangoon in Allied hands (to allow LRCAP and to prevent Jap strikes from there) and imbedding the CLs in the transports are the reasons for the success to to this point.
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  CV Franklin, a CVL, and two CVEs just arrived at Panama City and are heading to Pearl Harbor.  I would like to have them join the invasion, but I might move out before they can arrive.  Most troops are prepped now about 20-25 for the targeted bases on Formosa.  I think Okinawa rather than Luzon could be the fall-back target.  SigInt reports John is still strengthening his Luzon garrison, but Okinawa looks about the same (a recent report indicated 45,540 troops at Kadina).
 
Iwo:  Mines are now 8,000.  The CVs departed Iwo on the 13th and moved due south 180 miles.  They'll continue another 180 and then turn back.  This was simply a sortie to make sure I didn't fall into a predictable routine at Iwo.  All troops here (about 4800 AV) have now fully recovered from the invasion, so they are ready to go.  I have another division and some other troops at Midway and Hawaii, and would like to get them to Iwo in one piece.  The Jap CVs remain at Saipan, but John has stationed Glen-equipped subs in the waters around Midway and the Hawaiians.
 
Australia:  The Aussies have taken Cooktown.
 
Points:  Japs 43,000; Allies 25,200.  BB Haruna confirmed sunk, but CA Hagura and the other badly damaged captial ships (like Hiei and Aoba) haven't appeared, so perhaps they made port in time.

[Canoerebel]

My opponent has been posting comments with titles like "Operation Naskra" and "The Coming Storm" the past few days.  I think this is mostly disinformation intended to confuse and rattle.  It isn't working, primarily because the Allies have taken the initiative, and because I can't think of any offensive operation that the Japs could mount that would be a real concern to the Allies right now.  Here's my analysis of likely threats and situations around the map:

Likely Threat:  The only coming storm that would worry me is losing a major carrier battle impacting my ability to proceed with Operation Crescent Moon (the invasion of Formosa).  I can't stop John from attacking, but I can keep my CVs in or near Iwo so that they benefit from LBA. 

Port Blair:  A Jap combat TF might show up here, but it won't threaten the inevitable outcome of the invasion.  Besides, this is too remote a location to generate any kind of storm.

Burma:  Allied air has completely stymied any Jap ground offensives here.

China:  All quiet, no Jap troop build ups anywhere.

Alaska:  The Japs could mount an amphibious operation here, but it's a backwater and would be a waste of assets.

Hawaii/Midway:  No way he messes with big Allied air concentrations here.

Palmyra/etc:  Remote, who cares at this point?

Iwo Jima: Please. He's going to invade an island defended by AV 4800? Now, Tori Shima is a possibility, but would he really risk a big air/sea battle over this little island?

Australia/NZ:  He could try an operation to seize a base or cut off some of the Aussie troops in the Townsville/Cloncurry area, but that wouldn't accomplish anything important.

So, I say John is running a bluff.  Until I see differently, the Allies will proceed with offensive plans.

[Canoerebel]

I went for a run and gave this some thought.  The only possibility I can come up with is that John thinks my little CV excursion into the Philippine Sea is "the real thing" - an invasion of Luzon.  I just got a turn from him, so I'll see in a minute.

[Canoerebel]

11/14/43 to 11/16/43
 
Iwo Jima Vicinity:  My carriers made it back to the Iwo CAP umbrella without incident, but the KB pursued "feverishly" (an adjective also describing John's email comments and the titles he gave to his AAR posts).  My little foray west triggered a violent reaction from John.  As I mulled it over, it seems clear that once that big reinforcement convoy arrived at Iwo a few weeks ago, John assumed the next Allied move was imminent.  So he must think I'm heading for Luzon (and SigInt has disclosed several new Jap divisions there).  But I'm not quite ready to move, yet.  Tori Shima is 81% to level one airfield.  I'd like to have it up and running as P-38s could then provide LRCAP to the invasion fleet for quite awhile.  Secondly, my troops are about 25-30% prepped and I'd like them to embark on the transports at about 50%.  But I may stage another CV sortie to keep John "hopping."  Iwo now has 9,000 mines.
 
CenPac:  SigInt showed 21st Mixed Brigade on a Maru heading for Palau, plus 49,663 troops at Marcus.
 
Australia:  The Aussie's are closing on Cloncurry, which is held by 4 units.  John essentially vacated NE Australia and gave the Aussies the keys; but he still hold Broken Hill and Adelaide in force.
 
Port Blair:  The Allied troops tried a deliberate attack onteh 15th.  It came in at 0:1 (barely missing a 1:1) and showed forts at 7.  The Japs lost 1181/14 to 1145/20/11.  I'm loading reinforcements at Rangoon and they sail tomorrow.

[Canoerebel]

11/17/43
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  It appears that the KB is heading west.  I assume John will be repositioning it somewhere closer to what he must perceive to be the next Allied invasion target.  On the one hand, having the KB stationed within striking distance of Formosa is bad news as it means I'll have to deal with both carrier-based and land-based air, but it will permit me to reinforce easily.  I have a division, two RCTs, and a few smaller units stationed in Hawaii awaiting arrival of CV Hancock, two CVLs, and a handful of CVEs.  With the KB out of the way, this force should be able to make it to Iwo relatively easily.  I'm beginning to focus on the order of battle for the Formosa invasion.  The troops are prepping for two bases.  The invasion will include 9 divisions, four RCT, combat engineers, artillery, tanks, tank destroyers, headquarters (including an amphibious force), two large aviation regiments, and two 90-unit base forces.  To carry these troops, there will be 15 APs, 70 LST/LSD/LCI, 258 AKs of various sizes (mostly 7.2k), and a host of support ships (MSW, etc.).  I haven't counted carrier and combat ships yet.  Embarkation day may be two weeks off.

Operation Sun Spot:  The first wave transports have finished unloading.  Damaged ships are retiring to Trincomalee.  The rest of the transports plus combat ships and carriers will retire to Diamond Harbor to refuel and replenish.  Then the carriers and combat ships will return to escort the second wave. 

[Canoerebel]

11/18/43 to 11/21/43
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  The troops will probably depart from Iwo Jima around December 7, with D-Day at Formosa (or possibly backup targets Okinawa or Luzon) around the 12th.  The troops are prepping nicely, and I'm waiting to see if any further reinforcements will come from Midway.  The KB moved from Saipan toward Okinawa, and then "disappeared" into the vastness of Japan.  At least part of the TF moved up the east coast, and then disappeared either into port or into the sea to the north.  Allied reconnaisance aircraft from Pakhoi on the China coast are scouting Luzon.  Soon, the airfield at Tori Shima will be operational permitting scouting of Okinawa and, I think, Formosa.

Operation SunSpot:  The first wave is ashore (AV 1100); the carriers are replenished and swapped out Seafires and SeaHurricanes for Corsairs, and Albacores for Avengers; the combat TF is replenished; and the second wave convoy is NW of Port Blair awaiting arrival of the carriers and combat ships before heading in.  While the "cat was away" on the replenishing mission, John sent in a DD TF that sank two PG, one MSW, and 3 AKs that were having trouble unloading a few straggling troop detachments.  The undamaged transports involved in the first wave went to Diamond Harbor, and are now moving forward to Rangoon in order to prepare for the Tavoy invasion, which will get underway as soon as Port Blair falls freeing up the carriers and combat ships.

Operation Galaxy:  This will be the invasion of Tavoy.  Six or eight Chinese units are sitting in Rangoon 100% prepped.  The Jap defenses appear to be about 30k strong.  I think this is pretty doable, what with bombers and fighters from Rangoon and the availability of bombardement ships.  This will follow very closesly upon the fall of Port Blair (or even prior thereto, if it's clear the fall of Port Blair is imminent).  It would be nice to time this with Operation Crescent Moon.

Australia:  The Aussies reclaimed Coen on the 20th and tried a deliberate attack at Cloncurry on the 21st.  This attack came off at high odds and inflicted about 5x casualties on the defenders, but the Japs held.  Cloncurry ought to fall in a day or two.  That will clear eastern Australia of Japs, and the Aussies can then mull over their next move - southern route (Adelaide), middle route (Broken Hill), or northern route (toward Tennant Creek from Cloncurry).  The middle route is most likely.

[Canoerebel]

11/22/43 to 11/25/43
 
Operation Sun Spot:  The reinforcements have landed and the fall of Port Blair to the British Empire troops is imminent.  A 6:1 shock attack on the 25th dropped forts from 6 to 1.  I believe the Allies will take Port Blair on the 26th.  This will deprive the Japs of a level 3 airfield that was always a threat to RN operations in the Bay of Bengal, and will also help provide cover for Allied operations against Tavoy (near term) and Victoria Point (probably around New Years Day).
 
Operation Galaxy:  Troops are already loading at Rangoon for the invasion of Tavoy.  Nearly all of these troops are prepped 100% and the AV in the first wave should be about 1600.  The Jap defenses look about 30k strong and will be well dug in, but with Allied air and bombardment TFs readily available from Rangoon, this base should fall relatively quickly.
 
Operation Crescent Moon: Troops at Iwo and further to the rear (Midway, Pearl Harbor, West Coast) continue to prepare for the invasion of Formosa.  Embarkation date is probably two weeks away.  Patrol aircraft from Pakhoi on the China coast are reconning bases on Luzon and Formosa.  Patrol aicraft from Iwo handle southern Japan and Okinawa.  No recent signs of the KB since it "disappared" into Japan a week or so ago, but recent recon reported many CAs at Nagasaki, so that could be where the KB is stationed.  Nagasaki would be a likely sport to permit quick interception of my invasion fleet, so there should be a big carrier battle in the offing.
 
Iwo and Vicinity:  A DM just arrived at Iwo, joining the ML already there.  Iwo's mines are 12,000+.  Tori Shima has about 500, and the DM will begin adding to that total.  Tori is 92% to level one airfield.  I'll station P-38s there to help with LRCAP for the invasion fleet for as long as possible.  CA Haguro confirmed sunk, joining BB Haruna as casualties of the Battle of Iwo Jima several weeks back.
 
Australia:  The Aussies reclaimed Cloncurry on the 22nd.

[Canoerebel]

11/26/43 and 11/27/43
 
Operation Sunspot:  The Allies (mainly British Empire troops) took Port Blair on the 26th.
 
Operation Galaxy:  The first wave of British Empire and Chinese troops are loaded aboard transports that shall leave Rangoon tonight.  The British combat TF will leave Port Blair tonight and should hit Tavoy tomorrow night.  The RN CVs will take station about 120 miles west of Tavoy.  D-Day for this operation is November 29.  British bombers based at Meiktila, Rangoon, and even Kunming seem to be able to readily suppress Jap air in the area (Tavoy, Victoria Point, Moulmein, and Bangkok).  I think the sight of British CVs off the coast will tempt John to try to load up one or more of the airfields for a big strike, but barring that (or the unlikely appearance of the KB across the narrow reaches of the Malay peninsula), I don't think the Japs can offer much resistance.  The Tavoy garrison is 30k strong and will be well dug in, but I think Tavoy will fall in a week or two.
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  No big news here.  Reconnaissance aircraft are giving the Allies a good look at Luzon, Formosa, and Okinawa (and Kyushu too), so I have a decent feel for what I'm up against.  Recon reported at least one CV in port at Nagasaki.  Embarkation date tentatively set for December 7.

[MrPlow9]

Great AAR! Ive been reading this for a while now, single handedly got me to Register just so I could reply lol. I was wondering, there are so many operations being conducted at the moment all over the Pacific that im having a small amount of trouble following it all. If it is not to much trouble is it possible for you to post a screenshot of the zoomed out map showing yours and enemy bases, just so I can get an idea of what the frontlines are?
Thanks again for a wonderful AAR!

[Canoerebel]

Plow, welcome to the Forums and thanks for the kind words.
 
I'll get you some screenshots as soon as I can.  I don't have a good working copy of Adobe Acrobat right now, and that's what I use for screenshots.  But I'm going to have to purchase a copy shortly.