Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

Damian:
 
1.  Those resources at Palembang and Balikpapan aren't repairing at all.
2.  More supply is headed to both locations to keep repairs going.
3.  I have been using EVERY M5 produced to go on the CVs for the Battle with the US Fleet.
4.  Will check on the Mitsubishi...
5.  I know that 200,000 won't last long but it sure is a lot better then where we were just 2-3 months ago!
 
Thanks for the thoughts!

[John 3rd]

Nemo---your whole philosophy about how to defeat the US Navy in 1943 MIGHT be put to the test over the next couple of days...





I mis-added the total fighter count on the screenshot. It should read 739.

[John 3rd]

[font="times new roman"]Kaigun—Kido Butai[/i][/font][/b]
[font="times new roman"]Final Order-of-Battle[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]This is the Operational deployment of the Japanese Fleet for the ‘final’ battle.  I list the number, type, and skill level of the Daitai on each of the CVs:[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]Kaigun[/font][/i]
[font="times new roman"]                        [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF-1             Adm Nagumo                           Total:  150 M5[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Akagi         24 M5 (76)—27 M5 (77)        AA:  6008[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Kaga         24 M5 (75)---48 M5 (80)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVL Ryuho      27 M5 (83)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]BB Ise, Hyuga[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CA Atago, Chokai[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL Oyodo[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 9[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF-2             Adm Yamada                           Total:  124 M5 and 27 M3a[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Hiryu         21 M5 (74)---27 M5 (72)        AA:  4560[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Soryu         21 M5 (82)—27 M3a (67)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVL Ryujo      28 M5 (78)---27 M5 (73)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]BB  Nagato[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CA Tone, Chikuma[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL 2[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 8[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF-3             Adm Yamaguchi                       Total:  78 M5 and 61 M3a[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Shokaku    24 M5 (75)---25 M3a (74)      AA:  5519[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Zuikaku     24 M5 (76)---36 M3a (66)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVL Shoho      27 M5 (75)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]BC Kongo[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CA Myoko, Takao, Maya[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL 1[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 8[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF-4             Adm Ozawa                             Total:   108 M5 and 27 M3a [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Unryu        27 M5 (73)---27 M5 (70)        AA:  4679[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Amagi        27 M5 (75)---27 M5 (75)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVL Zuiho       27 M3a (75)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]BC Yamato[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CA Nachi, Ashigara[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL 1[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 9[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF-5             Adm Ishikawa                          Total:  54 M3a[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CV Taiho         27 M3a (73)                            AA:  3241[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVL Chiyoda   27 M3a (74)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]BB Mutsu[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CA Mogami, Suzuya[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL 2[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 9[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF-6                                                             Total:  27 A3a—27 M3a[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVE Shinyo     27 M5 (71)                              AA:  2041[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVE Unyo       27 M3a (66)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CA Furutaka[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL 1[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 7[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF-7             Adm Yoshino                           Total:  5 M5---27 M3a[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVE Hosho     5 M5 (79)                                AA:  1682[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVE Chuyo     27 M3a (64)[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CA Suzuya, Kumano[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL 2[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 7[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CTF 8              Adm Kusakabe                        Total:  24 M3a[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVE Taiyo       24 M3a (60)[/font]
[font="times new roman"]CVE Kaiyo      [/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]CL  1[/font]
[font="times new roman"]DD 6[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]I am trying to get another Daitai flown to Taiho and Kaiyo.  Don’t know if I can yet so I will wait for the next turn…[/font]
[font="times new roman"] [/font]
[font="times new roman"]All Fighters are set at 90% CAP at a Range of 1 with some M5 at 25,000, most M5 at 20,000, and all A3a at 15,000.[/font]

[John 3rd]

Here are the movements and developments for November 15th. It appears that Dan is ignoring my advance from Saipan and is looking to hit Kadina or--less likely--Naha. The die will be cast by tomorrow.

I have moved nearly 1000 aircraft to Formosa and Southern Japan. They will wait for the carrier battle and then throw everything they have at the American Force...

[John 3rd]

While waiting for the next turn I thought I would show portions of Australia.

Dan has moved up the coast slowly and reached the extremes. I hold Cloncurry with a token force to keep him watched and honest. If he choose to drive up that trail, he will find it rough going and will take FOREVER! If he does make that push then I will withdraw from Broken Hill and Adelaide so I can hold NW Australia.

[John 3rd]

...and the Southern portion...

[John 3rd]

Dan and I miss contact by just 1 or 2 hexes! He is withdrawing as I expected he would. I'll give it a day and then move in to trip his attacks...

[John 3rd]

Getting ready to run my first turn today but have to caution everyone that I spend 50% of the day with my Father on Thursdays.  He has had a stroke some years ago so I visit him on a regular schedule.
 
Nemo sent me a PM about using this opportunity to rebase the Fleet in Japan or Formosa and I had the same idea when I realized that Dan was probably not going to fight my Fleet.  Some of my ships need repairs and as Michael demonstrated with his Tracker postings I have a bunch of ships needing upgrades.  I will move towards Okinawa on this turn and then make a lunge towards Iwo Jima to see if I can trip an attack from his CVs.  If neither is successful then I will retire towards Osaka and be able to spread the Fleet out around those ports for quick repairs and upgrades.
 
Nice thing about being right there, I shoudl be able to reform almost instantly whenever I need...
 

[bigbaba]

i just wanted to say, that i am very impressed by your naval and air strength at this late time of the war...respect, john. i read your great AAR at work and wait for "the" battle.

[VSWG]

Very tense situation...  Good luck!

[John 3rd]

Thanks Guys!
 
We have completed the 17th/18th turns with no developments.  I cannot understand why Dan won't close to fight.  He has retired to EAST of Iwo Jima and I am heading for Nagasaki.  I have a number of ships needing upgrades (thanks Michael) and normal wear-and-tear repair.  My initial thought is to move one CV TF to Nagasaki, Hiroshima, Okayama, and Osaka, disband them to repair, and keep the remaining CVs at Nagasaki for the moment.  Should only take 7-10 days for repairs and upgrades to happen since there is NOTHING in any of those ports.
 
My primary concern is that Dan will move shipping from Midway to Iwo now that I am not at Saipan.  My immediate instincts are to place my Fleet at Tokyo so I can intercept anything slowly moving across the gap between his bases.  Does anyone have thoughts here?
 
Other notes:
1.  Am moving the CV's TB/DB from the Marianas to Tokyo and surrounding area.
2.  Finally got BB Musashi on the 14th! 
3.  Accelerated 3 CV and 1 CVL for completion around June 1944.
4.  Have formed a Strike Force of 13 DD at Sabang, Sumatra to hit British ships off of Port Blair.
 
My troops threw back the 1st assault there with a 0-1 result at Forts 7.  It was close though so I cannot expect them to hang on very long...
 
That is the news so far.  We should be able to get another 1-2 turns done today since I am back home.
 

[Nemo121]

It all depends on your priorities... If your priority is to upgrade then split them as you suggest. If you want them to be ready to fight then I would put into Tokyo and upgrade the ones you get the most bang for your buck for. I would expect to see either:
 
a) a USN CV sprint north to within launch range of Tokyo ( Port Attack ) or
b) a major reinforcement convoy from Midway.
 
If I were you I would bring lots of fighters into the air over Tokyo and then look like I had disbanded my ships there for upgrading ( but would have upgrades OFF ). Since he will assume you have upgraded he will feel free to bring his shipping into Iwo and then you sprint south-eastward attacking his shipping and seeing if he'll respond outside of range of his LBA.

[John 3rd]

Nemo,
 
As normal Sir very good thinking.  The weird thing is that he ISN'T doing recon over ANY of my bases!  It is crazy. 
 
Points:
 
1.  A couple of small convoys left Iwo Jima on the 19th going east.  I moved 100 Betty 2 into Marcus for attacks.  There were no CV spotted so we'll have to see what might be there.  I had an SS put 2 TT into a Tanker there with no escort present...
 
2.  I do a quick split of the Fleet: 
a.  Two CV Divisions go to Nagasaki for upgrade.  The 3 CTF of CVE go with them.
b.  One CV Division goes to Hiroshima for upgrades.
c.  One CV Division goes to Osaka for upgrades.
d.  Two CV Divisions go to Tokyo for upgrades.
 
The ships will go into Port for a few days and repair some.  I will allow one week max for them to do this.
 
3.  As the Fleet is moving, I have been flying TB/DB from the Marianas to Tokyo so they are in position for action if needed.
 
4.  Aircraft Upgrades continue with all Carrier planes but I do have to note that I just upgraded my second Daitai of Betty 2 to Frances!  Progress...
 
5.  A small counterstroke is underway at Port Blair.  A group of 13 DD left Sabang at Full Speed for that target.  An aerial attack force of about 100 planes will be ready to hit anything damaged by the DD attack.  Dan pulled the Brit CVs from cover and only about 5-10 P-38 are flying LR CAP there.
 
6.  A fresh Infantry Division from Australia is unloading at Naha.  This raises that base to having 3 full ID present.
 
7.  Over the last week I have gotten significant aerial reinforcements:  72 plane Zero group, 48 plane Zero group, 48 plane Kate group, etc...  They have all been sent to China for training and future use.
 
 
Question:  Dan has taken Iwo Jima and this means that I get Kamikazes in ONE month.  What should I do?  I've never gotten into a game far enough to REALLY use them.  Any thoughts here would be great...
 

[John 3rd]

I need advice on Kamikazes readers.  What is the best way to use them?  Which are the best planes to convert?  Considering that my LBA is completely intact and with experience in the 70s/80s, they might make for spectacular fireworks upon the American Fleet...
 

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I need advice on Kamikazes readers.  What is the best way to use them?  Which are the best planes to convert?  Considering that my LBA is completely intact and with experience in the 70s/80s, they might make for spectacular fireworks upon the American Fleet...

I wouldn´t use them at all... When the bombers get through Cap and they are high exp then they will put a bomb or torp into the target as well and I´ve never experienced the kamikaze hit rate to be higher than the weapon hit rate (if the aircraft makes it through Cap). Using high exp fighters as Kamis is also something I wouldn´t do as high exp fighters are needed to take on the enemy Cap and not to kill themselves as Kamikazes.

[John 3rd]

Hey Christian!  OK.  I started a Thread on this in the War Room thinking that others might benefit from a discussion on the topic.

[ny59giants]

Per John's request.

[John 3rd]

Thanks Mike.

I think I am going to accelerate another 150 points worth of stuff.  Quite probably I will focus on the new ASW Escorts that are coming out as well, a few DD, and CL Yahagi.  This should still provide me a surplus to keep stockpiling points.  Past that...

On the plus side of repairs, CVL Chitose will rejoin the Kido Butai in Nagasaki on Nov 21st.  After taking a Torp from an American SS about 2 months ago, she repaired in Soerabaja and left there about a week ago.  She'll provide space for another Daitai of planes!

I have been mining, with a few SS, Tori Shima and Chichi Jima recently and those mines have been effective.  Over the last 7 turns, the Americans have averaged losing an LCT every other day.  It isn't much but it is something.

[n01487477]

re: Ship Repairs ... (guess you know this John ... for some other readers ... or comments)

[*] Clear out those ports of all ships with damage > 0 so there is a build up of some local repair points beforehand.
[*] Do not allow any ships to offload in those ports while you are repairing
[*] Have AR's on hand.
[*] Supplies/Engineers/Naval HQ's are conjecture ... but I'd like to have my ports to have these supplied to maximise if there is doubt.
[*] Shipyard Repair uses Repair Points equal to the ship’s Durability +20. I.E., a DUR 5 DD will use 25 Repair Points, a DUR 120 CV will use 140. This is confirmed from actual play, the manual is incorrect on this point.
[*] So taken from the point previous, try to keep your Durability + 20 per ship below the shipRepair capacity of the ports you place them in...

Furthermore from DTravel in the Must Read Threads

As best as has been determined to date, the factors that affect Inherent Repair in order are:
1) The ship’s Durability (the higher it is, the slower repairs are)
2) Random chance. (I.E. the program’s random number generator.)
3) The size of the port (bigger is better)
4) The presence of repair support ships (AR, AD, AS, AGP) and/or Naval HQs.
5) The manual states that the experience of the ship’s crew affects repair, but this writer distrusts the manual.

Please note, observation indicates #2 above has a larger effect than all the lower factors combined. Random chance appears to play such a large role that it has so far proven impossible to measure the effects of any factor with any certainty.

[John 3rd]

Damian,
 
The one thing I have DOWN is ship repair.  One of the areas that I REALLY spend points on at the start of the war is expanding the size of my Repair Yards.  None of the yards where my CV TF are going have anything in them.  Additionally, they all have 2-4 AR, a HQ, and plenty of supply.  Mike ordered me to not pull any supply out of Japan about six weeks ago so nearly every port--including Sendai (can actually repair some of the plane production there--is at or well-above 20,000 supply.  Nearly every Port has at least 450-600 repair points stocked up prior to my ships arriving. 
 
I should see some pretty quick improvements.  The Tracker screen that Michael put up earlier showed that I have some DD, CL, and CA that need upgrades.  This should allow for that to occur...