Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

11/28/43 to 11/30/43
 
Operation Sunspot:  Allied troops have already eliminated the engineering and small infantry units, leaving just the 16th/A Division, which should be wiped out shortly. Some of the Allied units are already prepping for future operations against Victoria Point and Georgetown.  Operation Sunspot was an unqualified success.
 
Operation Galaxy: D-Day was the 30th, as British, Indian, Burmese, and Chinese came ashore in good shape.  The defenses consist of 31st Division and four engineering units of various types.  It will take two or three days for all the troops to reach shore, and a second wave is two days behind.  I won't try my first attack until all the first wave is ashore.  Jap units have been sighted on the Malay Peninsula road, and I think they are reinforcements for Tavoy.  I don't think they can reach Tavoy in time, however, due to the bad road system.  Singora is the only Jap airfield with aircraft, and two big Liberator III raids from Rangoon have destroyed some 60-70 aircraft on the ground.  At the moment, the Royal Airforce controls the skies in Burma and Siam.
 
Iwo Vicinity:  I'm trying something new.  I've sent two big groups of mixed merchant and warships in two directions from Iwo, one to the north, the other south, hoping to confuse John a bit.  These ships left Iwo on the 30th.  Tomorrow the carriers will move out behind them hoping to strike a big blow against a Japanese port, probably Tokyo or Osaka.  Recon places two CVs at Nagasaki, and I'm beginning to think John sent the KB to Japan for upgrades.  At Iwo, three Jap subs hit mines.  Tori Shima's airfield is 98% to level one.
 
The Middle Pacific:  What appears to be a Mini-KB has been raiding the sea lanes far to the NW of Midway, damaging five or six empty TKs (and sinking two or three) that were returning from Iwo.  I don't have anything to contest this area, but most of the TKs will be in Midway LRCAP range in a day or two.
 
Australia:  Now that the Allies have reclaimed the eastern seaboard, they are repositioning troops for the next phase.  It will take a good ten days for the units that took Cloncurry, Cairns, and other northern outposts to get in position.

[Canoerebel]

There is much going on in several places, and I'll post an update later today.  But there has been one development that is most satisfying.  Back in mid-June (in real life), John sent me an email message about his position at Moulmein, which I quoted in my post covering October 6 through 10, 1943 as follows:
 
'Thailand:  John noticed the massive Allied army across the river from Moulmein (AV is about 5950) and decided to give me some advice in his email: "Spotted all your victorious Rangoon troops.  I would REALLY like you to Shock Attack across that river to Moulmein!  Those troops are well supplied, fully dug-in, and will not retreat and/or be evacuated."  I'll give it a shot anyhow.'

With the Allied invasion of Tavoy progressing, the Japs have decided to retreat. On December 1, there were 17 Jap units 130k strong at Moulmein. The next day there were 10 units 70k strong.

[Canoerebel]

12/1/43 and 12/2/43
 
Dear Reader, I misled you.  I had too.  For the past month or so (game time), I have been referring to Operation Crescent Moon, the Allied invasion of Formosa (with Luzon and Okinawa as alternates).  In fact, those aren't the objectives.  But I could not take a chance that an innocent, accidental remark about some little yet key detail might jeapardize everything - some tiny thing that might suddenly trigger something in John's mind allowing him to piece together the puzzle. 
 
This operation is now underway and John is aware that something is up, so I can reveal some (but not all) of the details.  But I'll begin first with important developments elsewhere:
 
Operation Galaxy:  The Allies are landing in good order at Tavoy, and launched their first attack on the 2nd.  This came off at 1:1, dropped forts from 6 to 5, and cost the Japs 892/25/2 to 1153/48/1.  Jap reinforcements are on the way.  29th Mixed Brigade is a hex away and suffered 200 casualties to Wellingtons, but the road is bad and it should be tough for this unit to make it to Tavoy in time to help.  Tavoy can hold for awhile, but the defenses are cracking.  The Allies will attack again tomorrow.
 
Moulmein:  John recognizes the threat Tavoy poses to his flank, and he has begun withdrawing troops from Moulmein.  Where he had 17 units some 130k strong on the 1st, he now has just 10 units 70k strong.  Tomorrow, the Allied troops (5400 AV) will shock attack, and the units are set "to follow."  I want to apply some pressure here, although I don't think I can turn the retreat into a route.
 
Operation Crescent Moon:  The TFs sent south from Iwo several days ago were decoys.  The real McCoy moved north a day later, departing Iwo Jima on November 30, followed by most carriers and combat ships on December 1.  John may not have caught on to the move for one day (bad weather and the "clutter" of so many Allied ships all over the place, including the decoy force and various transports moving between Iwo and Midway), but he certainly did by the 2nd.  That day, 22 Jills sortied from Tokyo against the American carriers, which put up 350 Hellcats for CAP.  None of the Jills got through closed on American ships, and 12 were splashed.  John's email remark:  "Where to now?  Northern Honshu?  Hokkaido?  Let us decide the Fate of the Empire.  Massive coded transmissions to LBA, Kaigun, and Troops..."
 
Far to the north of Midway, John sent what appears to be a Mini-KB.  Over four or five days, Jap carrier planes hit 7 to 10 emtpy tankers returning from Iwo Jima, sinking perhaps three.  These Jap carriers apparently vacated the area a day or two ago, probably because John realized that the American carriers were moving north from Iwo.  Northwest of Pearl Harbor, CVL Bataan and some DDs stumbled upon a Jap sub, which fired defective torps at the carrier.  Bataan hopes to rendezvous with the main carrier force.
 
Iwo Jima and Vicinity:  Tori Shima just went to level one airfield, and the Allies moved in two high-experience Dutch PBM patrol squadrons from CBI, a Corsair squadron, and a small F-5 recon unit.  This, combined with the airfield at Pakhoi, permits the Allies to cover most everthing from the South China Sea to the far end of the Sea of Japan and nearly to the Aleutians.
 
Australia:  The Allies continue to position base forces at the newly captured cities along the eastern seaboard, while combat troops are on the road south where in a few weeks time they'll begin the next operation.
 
Points:  Japs, 43,197; Allies, 25,787.

[Canoerebel]

12/3/43
 
Operation "Crescent Moon" (true name to be revealed in a day or two):  The Allied invasion force continues to move north of Iwo Jima, now 720 miles distant from Iwo, and NNE of Tokyo perhaps seven or eight hexes.  Most of the ships are in a tight grouping, but a few transports and a slow BB TF trailed by a hex.  Betties from Marcus put a TT into BB Oklahoma, doing light damage; she'll retire to Midway.
 
John's reaction to this invasion force surprised me.  I had expected him to send his carriers and combat ships north through the Sea of Japan, where they would be sheltered and protected by LRCAP, and then to enter the Pacific through the straits between Honshu and Hokkaido.  But he's sent them up the eastern seaboard.  On the 3rd, they were sighted in multiple TFs spread out between just south of Tokyo and the vicinity of Osaka.  I'm assuming he's throwing everything hie has into this battle.
 
Tomorrow, the Allied force will be NNE of Tokyo about 420 or 480 miles.  As far as the Allies are concerned, this would be a great time for a carrier battle, because LBA will be less of a factor than it would be a day or two later (when I would be drawing closer to some big bases).  John's closest airfield, Sendai, is only a level 2.  Tokyo and Ominato are big, but just that little too far to really be factors.
 
The best thing John could do is to wait one more day to give battle.  So I'm crossing my fingers and hoping he doesn't wait.  Given the course and position of his CVs, I don't think he is.  Still, he has a massive number of carriers, so I may get clobbered anyhow.  Waiting will not help him in one respect.  In two days, the
Allied carrier force will be joined by another CV and two CVLs that have been sprinting northwest ever since they arrived in Panama City weeks ago.  I had hoped this group might catch the Mini-KB that was preying on Allied shipping between Iwo and Midway, but I was a day late.

The outcome of the upcoming battle should be decisive.  If the Allies lose in a big way, I think it's too late in the game to recover (since the Allies are already far behind due to John's excellent work and successes throughout the game).  But if this operation succeeds, the Allies have a chance to really turn the tables on the Japs.  Given the bad position I've been in most of the game, I feel fortunate to have this chance.
 
CBI:  The Japs withdrew from Moulmein, breaking the vow of their commander-in-chief to never be driven out or withdraw.  The ground troops will give chase.  At Tavoy, reinforcements in the form of a mixed brigade somehow travelled that poor road (it's yellow, for heaven's sake) in a single day!  In my other game with Miller, my troops make about two miles a day, so what gives?  Anyhow, I think it will be too little too late.  The second Allied deliberate attack came in at 3:1, dropped forts to four, and cost the Japs 643/36/1 to 955/24/1.  Additional troops are on the way, and all the bombers that were focusing on Moulmein have turned their attention to Tavoy.  To the rear, troops, engineers, and base forces are already prepping for distant locales as the Allies see opportunites now that the Jap MLR has broken (temporarily, of course, and until John can establish a new line, which I think will be at Bangkok).

[Andav]

A lurker here dropping in to say I have really enjoyed this AAR (and its companion). Did you get that copy of Adobe yet? A screen shot of this would be great!

Keep up the good work!

Walter

[Canoerebel]

You're wish is my command. I still don't have Adobe Acrobat, so the map lacks comments. But you can see the general position of Allied and Jap forces.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're wish is my command. I still don't have Adobe Acrobat, so the map lacks comments. But you can see the general position of Allied and Jap forces.

Cool...Northern Honshu or Hokkaido. If you are trying to provoke a fight this will certainly do it. [:)] Good luck to you, man.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're wish is my command. I still don't have Adobe Acrobat, so the map lacks comments. But you can see the general position of Allied and Jap forces.

Looks promising, but you still steer a dangerous course: Be careful if you see any Japanese carriers around - they may trigger a reaction of your CV's right into the range of Japanese land-based planes (Tokyo) .

And maybe now it is the time to move some subs into the path of Japanese TF's that certainly have left or will leave port to interdict you?

Tavoy: It is possible that he airlifted a brigade in.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I hate the react feature too.  Not much I can do about it now, though.  My transports require carrier cover.  All my carriers are in CVs set to follow transports.
 
I will post another update shortly.  On 12/4, there wasn't a carrier battle.  John has gathered his CVs at Tokyo.  So the big battle could occur tomorrow or the next day...

[Canoerebel]

12/4/43
 
Operation "Crescent Moon":  No carrier battle today.  John apparently is gathering his forces at Tokyo.  My ships are just 420 miles NE and are heading toward the invasion target, so they will remain on course and a battle will take place as soon as John commits his ships.  He's wise to wait until his CVs will be augmented by LBA, but the delay should allow CV Hancock and two CVLs to join the invasion force.  They will rendezvous tomorrow, or at least close to within 60 to 120 miles.  That will give the Allies 7 CVs, 8 CVLs, and 8 or 10 CVEs (some of those are air defense, some replenishment).  Each carrier TF consists of a CV, CVL, and a BB (except Hancock's, which has two CVLs and doesn't yet have a BB).  I don't think John has figured out the invasion target yet.  It's got to be down to just a few possibilities in his mind.  I hope I've caught him by surprise.  Every indication I have is that he was expecting an invasion of Luzon, Formosa, Okinawa, or Kyushu.  But he's had time to get all his ships and aircraft in position, so it's going to be a tough fight nevertheless.
 
Iwo Vicinity:  What a help it has been to have Tori Shima go to level one airfield.  Three recon squadrons and two long-range patrol squadrons are covering a great deal of enemy territory, and taking a look at the Jap bases in northern Honshu and points north.  That's got to be driving John crazy.  I am "assuming" that the real show will draw John's full attention, so I hope to use this opportunity to move alot of empty ships out of Iwo and back to Hawaii or the West Coast, while also sending reinforcements and supplies from there to Iwo.  I did not leave Iwo toothless:  there is a good combat TF with two fast BBs (Indiana and South Dakota had SYS damage in the low teens, so I didn't send them with the invasion force).  The port has 17,000 mines.
 
Burma:  When John evacuated Moulmein, he left behind a base force (or it was moving awfully slow).  My shock attack found only that unit in the hex, and since my troops were set to "follow," they advanced quickly.  The armored units advanced a hex; John saw an opportunity to hit them hard, so set his troops to shock attack; but in the meantime my infantry somehow covered 45 miles in a single day, so his attack was an utter failure.  The Japs lost 11,649/277/1 to 355/11/2.  So the retreat may indeed turn into a route.  At Tavoy, a 3:1 deliberate attack reduced forts to 3 and inflicted 1118/35/2 to 1037/9/1.  The Allies will try a shock attack tomorrow.
 
Points:  Japs, 43,250; Allies, 25,939.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

Map of the situation near Japan on December 4, 1943. Allied invasion force is NE (true) of Tokyo; CV Hancock and two CVLs are in solo TF further to the NE, and on course to rendezvous tomorrow; massive Jap fleet (roster listed in black-shaded box on map) is at Tokyo.

[Canoerebel]

12/5/43
 
A momentous turn, even though nothing major happened, because it's the prelude to what will take place either tomorrow or the following day.  This battle will decide the war.

Operation "Crescent Moon" (real name to be disclosed soon):  Forces are converging and alot is happening, so I'll detail things one at a time to help myself keep track:

1.  The Japanese navy did not sortie against the Allied invasion fleet (with the possible exception of combat ships sent to Sendai to contest an invasion of the base, and then retiring back toward Tokyo when no Allied ships showed up).  Most of the Japanese navy is at Tokyo, with elements north and south, and at least some combat ships in the Sea of Japan.

2.  The invasion fleet changed course and moved northwesterly toward the straits between Hokkaido and Honshu, finishing the day 240 miles east of Ominato.  CV Hancock and her two CVL companions rendezvoued with the main fleet and were joined by BB Mississippi.  So now the Allies have 7 fleet carrier TFs - six with a CV, a CVL, and a BB, and one with a CV, two CVLs, and a BB.  There is a CVE TF consisting of four air-defense CVEs and a BB.  There are replenishment TFs with about four or five CVEs.

3.  Hancock and the two CVLs were still set to "strike airfield", and perhaps 35 bombers went after the base at Ominato, much to my surprise.  A big air battle took place with the CAP, with the Allies coming out ahead, but nevertheless the Allies lost some fighters to my chagrine.  Most of the carriers have full compliments, but a few are short and didn't draw from the replenishment CVEs for some reason.  I am fervently praying that they will do so before tomorrow. 

4.  On the day, the Japs lost 128 aircraft (89 a2a, 17 field, 11 flak, 11 ops) and the Allies 65 (51 a2a, 5 flak, 9 ops).  Recon from Tori Shima reported that there are only about 100 aircraft based at Ominato.  It is a level 6 airfield, so either the carrier-based air attack scared John off, or the base is inadequately garrisoned by base force personnel.  This is huge news, because Sendai is a small field (level 2).  It is possible this invasion caught John off guard and with insufficient base forces in the area - if so, that could be the most critical item in the entire game.  Or, John could have plenty of base forces and I may get my butt kicked from Ominato to Oahu.

5.  The main body of the invasion force will steam WSW taking position 60 miles east of Ominado.  I've also created three solo DD TFs.  These shall proceed to Ominato, Aomori, and Hakodate, respectively, and take station, both to check for mines and to see if any Jap combat ships show up at these places.  These DDs (each with 11 SYS damage) are sacrificial sheep. 

6.  A small transport TF has detached from the main body and shall proceed to one of the small islands east of Hokkaido, carrying a battalion each of parachutists and raiders.  It is hoped that the target will be vacant and that the Allies will those gain a small port to permit replenishment and to give my ships a place to retire to if (when, I mean) they sustain damage).

7.  I predict that the big battle will take place tomorrow.  It is an awful feeling to send such a huge force "into the teeth of the lion," but this is no time for flinching.  Given how far behind I fell in the game, I feel fortunate that I have even a chance of clawing my way back into the game.  Here's to success, but if I fail it's been...well, real.

8.  PBYs from Iwo Jima hit two AKs in the Sea of Japan, and an AR off the eastern seaboard north of Tokyo (what in the world is THAT doing out there?).  It seems that John is sending troops north as fast as he can.

9.  Allied subs are flooding the region.  Well to the south, Skate torpedoed one of three MLSs west of Kyushu.  It's good to eliminate one of their kind, and it's an encouraging sign that perhaps this invasion caught even the Jap minelayers out of position.  One can only hope...

10.  Carriers sighted at Tokyo today:  Taiho, Unryu, Ryuho, Unyo, Chitose, plus BB Kongo.  I can't believe John didn't send the KB through the Sea of Japan.  The only explanation is that he feared the target was Sendai.

Near Moulmein:  The Allied troops shock attacked the units retreating from Moulmein, driving this group back into Raeheng (spelling?).  This time, however, I did not set them to follow.  These units are already prepping for new targets, and will retreat to Rangoon to replenish and move quickly.

Tavoy:  The Allies took Tavoy after an 8:1 shock attack, the Japs losing 1880/37 to 995/13.  These troops, too, shall remain in Tavoy and are now prepping for new destinations (as are troops at Port Blair, Rangoon, Ceylon, and India).  Rather than get involved in a land war in Asia as I have with Miller, the Allies will use the Royal Navy to move quickly down the Malay Peninsula.

Points:  Japs, 43,250; Allies, 25,939.  These totals are about to change dramatically.

[Q-Ball]

Good luck tommorow, and if you would, please post the COMBAT TEXT of the massive battle sequence, just this once.  Would like to see all the bomb hits, etc.  You can take out all the routine stuff elsewhere on the map.

12/6/43....almost exactly 2 years after Pearl Harbor! 

[Nachoz]

Holding my breath....

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

Good luck tommorow, and if you would, please post the COMBAT TEXT of the massive battle sequence, just this once.  Would like to see all the bomb hits, etc.  You can take out all the routine stuff elsewhere on the map.

12/6/43....almost exactly 2 years after Pearl Harbor! 

The invasion force should go in on the 7th. This is purely coincidental, but a nice one (assuming the Allies come out on top).

I'll be away for the next few hours, so John should post the results of the battle first. I think he will welcome readers, even the few who have sworn off his AAR while monitoring mine and giving helpful suggestions now and then.

[Canoerebel]

12/6/43
 
I don't have WitP loaded on my home computer, so I can't watch the combat replay.  But I can read the combat report, which I have just done, and it isn't pretty.

You will recall that the Allied invasion fleet was closing to within 60 miles of Ominato, and that the Jap carriers were at Tokyo.  So it looked like a big carrier battle was in the offing.

Sure enough, the Allied carriers launched, but the Jap carriers didn't!  (Again, I haven't seen the combat replay, so I don't even know yet where the Jap CVs were).  Ten Allied strikes, nine of them quite small, went in against some kind of Jap naval force, and encountered 900 Japanese fighters!  There were 542 Zekes, 158 Zeros, 161 Tonys, and a smattering of others.

The Jap fighters shot down 560 Allied aircraft (141 Hellcats, 218 SBDs and Helldivers, and 201 TBFs and TBMs). The Allies got just 121 Jap fighters (101 Tonys, 12 Zekes, 3 Zeros, and 6 Tojos).

So what were the Allies attacking? Those of you reading John's AAR will know, but I won't know until tomorrow morning.

There are several ways John could have orchestrated this that I could only tip my hat to in congratulations: (1) He loaded his carriers with fighters and sent them forward, their CAP augmented by LRCAP, or (2) His carriers had their bombers, but he stood them down, maximized CAP, and set up the augmented LRCAP. Either strategy would be very clever and I bow to him.

There is a third possibility, though, that would really trouble me. If he kept his carriers back out of harm's way and sent forward a modest combat TF to draw a strike, covering that combat TF with LRCAP from carriers and LBA, that would be the epitome of gaminess. In this game, as we all know, carrier TFs can't process information and act in a manner approximating reality. In real life, an Allied carrier TF approaching Japan and knowing that Jap carriers were fairly close by wouldn't launch everything against a modest combat TF. Obviously, if we could, any player would issue orders to make sure a 100% capacity strike wasn't launched against inconsequential shipping when enemy carriers were present, especially in large numbers.

I'll find out tomorrow exactly what happened. If it was one of the first two "scenarios," or something like them, I tip my hat to John and, even if I lose this battle and have to concede, will do so knowing I've lost to the better player. If, however, it was some artificial contrivance that worked the oddities of the game engine in weird ways to produce a ridiculous and highly unrealistic result, I'll be hacked.

The funny thing is, I think the Allies may still be in good shape. I won't know for sure until I see the combat replay tomorrow and then get into the file for the next turn, but there are some possibilities...

More tomorrow.

By the way, if any of you are privy to what John did through reading his AAR, and you are satisfied that there was nothing gamey about it, please reply. I'll sleep better knowing I came out on the short end in a fair fight.

[Canoerebel]

I've scoured the combat report to see if I could find anything that would give me a clue about the events of the 6th.  Here's what I found:
 
An American sub encountered a Jap combat TF near Sendai:
 
Sub attack at 69,42
 
Japanese Ships
CA Atago
DD Arare
DD Natsugumo
 
Allied Ships
SS Grayling, hits 3,  on fire
 
All of the American American carrier-plane strikes went to the same hex.  Here's one example:
 
Day Air attack on TF at 69,42
 
Japanese aircraft
A6M2-N Rufe x 15
A6M5 Zeke x 542
J2M Jack x 9
A6M3a Zero x 158
F1M2 Pete  x 2
Ki-61 KAIc Tony x 161
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 10
 
Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 7
SBD Dauntless x 34
TBM Avenger x 17
 
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61 KAIc Tony: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged
 
Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 7 destroyed
SBD Dauntless: 33 destroyed
TBM Avenger: 17 destroyed
 
Did John sent a CA/DD force (or evening something a little larger) forward of his carriers, and just off the coast of Japan, covered by massive numbers of LRCAP, while his CVs remained back out of harm's way?  Surely not.
 

[pat.casey]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/6/43

<snip>
By the way, if any of you are privy to what John did through reading his AAR, and you are satisfied that there was nothing gamey about it, please reply. I'll sleep better knowing I came out on the short end in a fair fight.

You attacked his main carrier concentration. Wasn't a sacraficial cruiser force under a CAP umbrella.

[Canoerebel]

Pat, thanks!&nbsp;&nbsp;So I tip my hat to John, a very clever and capable opponent, and now I can sleep well knowing I was bested in a fair fight.
&nbsp;

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/6/43
 
There are several ways John could have orchestrated this that I could only tip my hat to in congratulations: (1) He loaded his carriers with fighters and sent them forward, their CAP augmented by LRCAP, or (2) His carriers had their bombers, but he stood them down, maximized CAP, and set up the augmented LRCAP. Either strategy would be very clever and I bow to him.

There is a third possibility, though, that would really trouble me. If he kept his carriers back out of harm's way and sent forward a modest combat TF to draw a strike, covering that combat TF with LRCAP from carriers and LBA, that would be the epitome of gaminess. In this game, as we all know, carrier TFs can't process information and act in a manner approximating reality. In real life, an Allied carrier TF approaching Japan and knowing that Jap carriers were fairly close by wouldn't launch everything against a modest combat TF. Obviously, if we could, any player would issue orders to make sure a 100% capacity strike wasn't launched against inconsequential shipping when enemy carriers were present, especially in large numbers.

I'll find out tomorrow exactly what happened. If it was one of the first two "scenarios," or something like them, I tip my hat to John and, even if I lose this battle and have to concede, will do so knowing I've lost to the better player. If, however, it was some artificial contrivance that worked the oddities of the game engine in weird ways to produce a ridiculous and highly unrealistic result, I'll be hacked.

I am intrigued why you think the first two tactics would not be gamey but the third tactic would be gamey.

WITP allows carriers to launch carrier trained and carrier capable air units. IRL there is no such capability. A unit needs constant practice in launching and landing on carriers to be able to actually be used effectively from a carrier. IRL no unit categorised as "carrier capable" could actually be embarked on a carrier as an augmentation. IRL you are either carrier trained and permanently stationed on the carrier or you are land based. What WITP allows is gamey.

On the other hand IRL it is not uncommon to have a bait/decoy operating in front of the main force. Think of Admiral Hipper in 1916 or Admiral Ozawa in 1944, to name just two historical examples. Can one really describe the employment of an historical tactic as being gamey? After all WITP is a game, not a true simulation, and because there is always a level of abstraction, there is always an element of playing within the game mechanics.

Alfred