Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

Thought I had better change the title of these posts as the "Hmm, is this an Allied victory?" title will probably tick off John.

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If so, those aircraft will be fully operational.

Sorry to disagree, but they won't. They will be damaged.

The problem with the replenishment CVEs was that they got left behind when my CV reacted against orders.  So my CVs were in one hex, the replenishment CVEs in an adjacent hex.  They didn't replenish.

I'm pretty sure that they don't have to be in the same hex (ctangus mentions 2 hexes as a "critical" distance for CVEs):
tm.asp?m=1642539

Edit: changed the title. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

I don't think I realized this. Thanks for the heads up.

As for my replenishment CVEs not working, they have always done so in the past when in the same hex as my CVs. They didn't this time, and the only difference is that they were a hex away, so I figured that was the problem. But I could be wrong.

ORIGINAL: VSWG

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If so, those aircraft will be fully operational.

Sorry to disagree, but they won't. They will be damaged.

The problem with the replenishment CVEs was that they got left behind when my CV reacted against orders.  So my CVs were in one hex, the replenishment CVEs in an adjacent hex.  They didn't replenish.

I'm pretty sure that they don't have to be in the same hex (ctangus mentions 2 hexes as a "critical" distance for CVEs):
tm.asp?m=1642539

Edit: changed the title. [;)]

[Mistmatz]

Are you sure they did replenish when in the same hex, or might that have happened with some distance?

This is becoming an increasingly worrying issue, so maybe time to request assistance in the war room before answering the turn?

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not talking about crated aircraft.  This island doesn't have an airfield.  It has a level one port.  Usually, CV aircraft squadrons can "draw" replacements while in port.  I'm assuming I can do so even though this is a level one.  If so, those aircraft will be fully operational.

The problem with the replenishment CVEs was that they got left behind when my CV reacted against orders.  So my CVs were in one hex, the replenishment CVEs in an adjacent hex.  They didn't replenish.

If you draw aircraft from a BASE then they are NEVER operational... thank god! This would make this replenishment thing from a (in game terms) shitty base with no infrastructure at all even worse IMO.

[Canoerebel]

12/8/42
 
Here's an email message I just sent to John with the December 9 turn file:
 
"Hmm, what to do. The Jap air ambush that stripped me of so many fighters and strike aircraft has put me in a quandary.

"Had I won a carrier battle decisively, I would have stayed place and saw the invasion through.  Had I lost a carrier battle decisvely, I would have had no choice but to stay in place and see the invasion through.

"But in this weird battle I still have my carriers, and it's tempting to try to extract them so that I can live to fight another day.  Yet I have so many assets in place, and clearly Hokkaido is lightly held.  So it's been really tough to figure out what to do.

"The Allied invasion is turning sour, though, and it will take a miracle to emerge from this alive.  I give my odds of success at perhaps 15%."

Battle Scars:  Yesterday's losses were lighter than expected and would be acceptable IF the Allies were to succeed in getting strong bases up and running on Hokkaido and vicinity.  I've lost BBs North Carolina (sacrificed at Hakodate to protect the invasino fleet) and Oklahoma (that Mini-KB picked her off NW of Midway); I've also lost CVEs Altamaha, Copahee, and Prince William.  Several others suffered light to moderate damage.  The hits scored against the transports were pretty light given the number of ships in the area.
 
Two Big Problems:  (1)  The Allies are really running low on Hellcats.  The main carrier fleet has 175 remaining and some of this are "under repair."  The remaining CVEs are a hex or two to the south, and I was able to transport in a high-experience Hellcat squadron from Tori Shima to CVE Copahee.  So the CVEs have perhaps 40 Hellcats.  (2)  Most of my invasion fleet that went to Hakodate didn't unload - it was only three hexes, but some didn't have enough ops points to begin unloading.  About 415 AV came ashore (elements of two Army divisions and some combat engineers) and I think this will be enough to take Hakodate tomorrow, but none of the base force personnel unloaded.  That's a huge problem, because I expect massive numbers of Jap combat ships to arrive in the hex overnight, so that any ships there would have essentially no chances of survival.  IE, I will probably take Hakodate, but I can't really make use of it yet.  The only benefit I'll derive from the taking - if it falls - is that it will prevent John from using it to bring in reinforcements.  They'll have to travel a bit further to Sapporo.

The Big Decision:  So, what do I do?  (1) Gut it out, leave all those transports in place, get as many combat ships there as possible, and hope enough troops come ashore to allow air operations?  The problem with this alternative is that I only have the one combat TF (CAs, CLAAs, and DDs) there and the slow BBs, which I would send, are probably too far away to make it.  So after a great deal of thought, I decided not to follow this course of action; (2) Flee?  I could retire now and possibly get most of my carriers back home where they would live to fight another day.  But that means abandoning all the transports when they are right in the enemy's back yard, and it's clear that this area was lightly defended.  So I scrubbed this.  (3)  Modify my plans while still hoping to protect my carriers?  This is what I've chose.  Here's the plan, from east to west:

1)  I had several "second wave" convoys sailing west from San Fran for quite some time.  They are south of the western Aleutians and very close to that Mini-KB.  I am going to send these forces due north to try to seize two Aleutian islands.  These two only have small airfields at present, but both can be built up pretty large.  John has much larger air bases around these two islands, so I think he's garrisoned those while the two I've selected "should" be lightly garrisoned.  I have an Army division, RCT, two engineer units, and two base forces available for this job.  I am "hoping" that the bad Arctic weather will slow John's defensive air operations, and that my ships can move fast enough to permit success.  If I can take one or both bases in strength, it gives my Hokkaido invasion forces a place to retire to, and it also gives me forward bases for future operations.  So I have high hopes for this cobbled together part of the plan.

2)  What about that Mini-KB?  I think it is probably two small CVs or perhaps CVLs/CVEs.  I have two CVE TFs of two CVEs each, one just to the north, one just to the south, of the Mini-KB.  I've ordered them to rendezvous about where I think the Mini-KB will be.  I don't know if 4 CVEs (with 80 Hellcats and about 32 TBFs) can take on a Mini-KB, but these are acceptable odds.

3)  My troops seized the westernmost of the Kuriles, but it is only a level one port and a 0 airfield.  I landed a small detachment on the bigger island to the east (level three port, 0 airfield) and it is unoccupied too, but my force lost its fighting capability in the landing and can't seize the base.  So I'm detailing one AK with a strong infantry element to head there.  That ship may or may not make it and it will probably take two days.

4)  The non-Hakodate part of my invasion fleet (the transports carrying troops prepped for Sapporo, Ashigara, and Toyahara) are just south of the western tip of the Kuriles, along with my CVs, surviving CVEs, and the replenishment TFs.  The transports will head north and I hope to invade and take Shikuka on Sakhalin Island.  This is a (6) (6) base (though currently a level 4 port/1 airfield) held by just one unit.  This base is 8 hexes distant from my transports and located in the Arctic Zone.  So my transports head due north.  My CVs, CVE, and combat TF will take station a few hexes to the east, almost but not qutie in the Arctic Zone, tomorrow.  Again, I'm placing them the furthest from the main threats, hoping to protect my carriers and intending to save myself the option of ordering them to flee if things continue to deteriorate. 

5) Hakodate:  (a)  My troops will shock attack tomorrow. I "think" they can take the base, or come close fortifications give the small defense force a break; (b) Empty transports (mainly LCIs) will head for the Kuriles); badly damaged transports will remain at Hakodate and hope to unload a little before they get chewed up by Jap combat ships and strike aircraft; (c) I've detached three AKs carrying about 1/3rd of an aviation regiment and ordered it to remain at Hakodate in hopes that I might get some ashore; (d)  The transport carrying the Amphibous Force HQ didn't even make it to Hakodate even though it was just three hexes away, the slowest ship was 16 knots, and the TF was "full speed."  It ended the day at Ominato.  I'll send it toward the Kuriles but it'll be in shark-infested waters.

6)  The Rest of the Hakodate Force:  There are a multitude of undamaged transports plus the combat TF at Hakodate.  I am nearly as sure as I can be that the entire Jap navy (combat ships, anyhow) will arrive here tonight, so these undamaged ships are heading north.  They won't get far, and they will draw a fair share of Jap LBA strike aircraft, but at least they won't be eaten alive by combat ships.  They will head for either Toyahara (also on Sakhalin Island, a (1)/(4) base currently at 1/6), or possibly Shikuka (on Sakhalin) or, if things went incredibly well, which is increasingly unlikley now), they might even go in at Wakkanai on Hokkaido.

In summary, the "best case scenario" now is that the Allies take and hold Hakodate long enough to permit reinforcement once I get some other bases; take and hold one or two bases on Sakhalin Island, have one or two small bases in the Kuriles, and establish one or two bases in the western Aleutians.

What will John do with his CVs this turn?  He probably assumes my carriers will hang around the western Kuriles (and he will be right), so I think they'll take position somewhat to the SW.  Can my remaining Hellcats stave off another round of attacks?  It should be mainly carrier-based strikes now, because most LBA will be out of range (except bombers at Sapporo).

Elsewhere, things are progressing in Australia and Malaya.  I hope I can stave off deveat at Hokkaido so that I can continue to make progress in those regions.

P.S. Yes, this operation really is turning sour. But don't be too hard on me. This is just my second game, and believe me I'm learning lessons here. If things don't go really well tomorrow, I will probably try to extract my carriers and whatever else I can. Arg, I'll be hearing "Banzaii!" for months.





 
 

[Canoerebel]

John just sent me this email message:
 
"Wild Round!  I think you out thought me!  Shouldn't take too long for orders this turn."[/align] [/align]Unfortunately, he sent me the combat report and combat replay for one of his other games, so I have no idea yet what happened.  Arg![/align]

[Canoerebel]

This is absolutely crazy!  I have to run, so I can't type much, but here's some highlights of the turn:
 
1)  No strikes against the American fleet CVs.  A few more CVEs take shots.  That Mini-KB force includes Shokaku and at least two other CVs.  That's something I had never counted on - I sure thought John would combine all carriers.
 
2)  No Jap combat ships hit Hakodate!  No way, I can't believe it.  Meantime, many more Allied troops unloaded (I issued orders to most transports to leave, but forgot to click "cancel unload" so they continued unloading part of the day).  Much to my surprise (and delight) a complete Aviation Regiment is ashore.  If (BIG BIG BIG IF) I can take Hakodate tomorrow, I'll be able to base a full compliment of aircraft there.  Holy Cow!
 
3)  John is air transporting units to Hakodate, but they undoubtedly are poorly prepped or not at all.  My shock attack came in at 3:1 and dropped forts from 4 to 1.  I could (SHOULD, big IF) take the base tomorrow.
 
4)  There is a unit on the road to Hakodate from Sapporo.  There's only one unit there that it could be - 7th Division.  If it arrives at Hakodate (and it probably will overnight), that will prevent me from taking the base.  But that leaves Sapporo totally open (except to air transport).  I have 3rd Marines (prepped for Hakodate) on LSTs just two hexes away!  So I send them in to Sapporo tomorrow along with whatver else I can muster.
 
5)  The transports heading for Sakhalin Island made good speed.  I will probably head to Shikuku (3 hexes distant) tomorrow.  Possibly I will divert some of the transports toward Sapporo/Wakkanai (since some of these units are prepped for Sapporo).
 
6)  The transports heading to the Aleutians will begin arriving tomorrow or the next day.
 
This whole thing is nuts.  There's too much going on, and too much has gone wrong, for the Allies to regain control of the situation.  And yet, there's this chance....

[sjohnson]

Hi there,
 
First time posting in your AAR but, as I am sure many others are, I have been following your game for a while.  I like the go for broke strategy and you seem to have caught John off guard in some areas.  Strategically you have surprised him, yet, why Hakodate/Sapporo?  It would be a nice coup-de-main, but, hard to reinforce and hold.
 
It seems to me that if Sakhalin is poorly guarded then why not reinforce this move, if not throw everything at it as well as the other Kurile islands that look like they may be up for grabs.
 
This would:
1) secure one flank of your forces (the N/NW) with russian territory
2) give you a good LOC back to the west coast through the aleutians, alaska, and canadian coast - all of which can base airpower for scouting and convoy cover
3)  provide you sufficient bases (you can build up the lvl 0 aflds to lvl 3 which is good enough for fighters and light attack craft) for airpower and heavies in Sakhalin to bomb Japan
4)  provide you with good sub bases in the Japanese home islands with little risk - meaning most of your damaged subs will have a good chance of makiing it to a port; and note the allied sub force builds up quickly in numbers in mid 44 onwards
5)  forces John to honor the threat of additional invasions and disperse airpower, etc. to Northern Japan
6)  allows you to redeploy your carriers back to Iwo/CPac regions and provide a continual threat with multiple areas to strike
 
Lastly on a strategic side, if he has really pulled as many troops out of China as it appears and your Burma forces continue to advance - as opposed to advancing down malaya and even into Indochina and slogging out against fort lines in malaria terrain - why not use air transport assets and start shifting supply and forces into China for a drive to the coast somewhere - getting lvl 5 airbases within range of Formosa giving you the ability to interdict shipping skirting the coast into south-west Japan.

[Canoerebel]

I have digested the turn, made my plans for tomorrow, and it should be a fascinating day.  Here's my email to John (in blue letter with additional comments in black):

This is utterly preposterous, and certainly spinning out of control, which means I'm almost certainly on the road to disaster.  But I still think I have a chance:

1)  I suspect that's your 7th Division on the road from Sapporo to Hakodate.  I think it will arrive overnight.  If so, you keep Hakodate; if not, I think I'll get it.  The test runs I did a couple of weeks ago indicated 7th Division could reach Hakodate from Sapporo in two days; so it should arrive there tonight unless John sends 7th back to Sapporo.  My guess is that he continues to Hakodate, the more immediate peril.

2)  But if 7th Division is on the way to Hakodate, that leaves Sapporo pretty naked.  So, you may turn 7th Division around and head back to Sapporo.  Or not.  If you don't, then I may be able to take it.

3)  We're about to find out what happens when amphibous assaults occur in the Arctic in winter.  It won't be good; but the question is whether the targets are defended.  I think even in the worst conditions I could take vacant bases.  My transports are awfully close to both the south and middle bases on Sahkalin Island.  My troops should land in force, despite the Arctic Winter affects.  If the bases are vacant, even a few combat troops will be sufficient.  Here I could have ports and airfields in two days.  I think it's likely, in fact.

4)  What of my carriers, which are sailing around way up at the end of the earth.  They will head even further north, almost to Okha, the Russian base at the north tip of the island.  I have 240 Hellcats now and it was tempting to keep the carriers closer to the main action to provide defense, but John's carriers are due south and on a course to close.  I really want to preserve my carriers to fight again - either here (once they replenish in port) or else somewhere else another day.

5)  And what of your carriers?  Whee do they go?  And your combat ships?  I have no idea what he's going to do. He's certainly got to be most worried about Hakodate, followed by Sapporo; but he's aware that the Sakahlin bases are now in my sights; and Wakkanai could be too. And I have carriers and combat ships all over the place. So how does he prioritize?


One thing is abundantly clear - I had better get an airfield up and running post haste. The sand is fast running out of the hourglass. If I don't get a good base quick - to provide fighter cover, strike capability, and a refuge for my ships, total defeat will soon follow.

[FeurerKrieg]

You guys sure talk a lot in your emails. I don't mention anything gamewise except in the past tense, and even then, usually about things that happened weeks before.

Interesting to see the different styles.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: sjohnson

Hi there,

First time posting in your AAR but, as I am sure many others are, I have been following your game for a while.  I like the go for broke strategy and you seem to have caught John off guard in some areas.  Strategically you have surprised him, yet, why Hakodate/Sapporo?  It would be a nice coup-de-main, but, hard to reinforce and hold.

It seems to me that if Sakhalin is poorly guarded then why not reinforce this move, if not throw everything at it as well as the other Kurile islands that look like they may be up for grabs.

This would:
1) secure one flank of your forces (the N/NW) with russian territory
2) give you a good LOC back to the west coast through the aleutians, alaska, and canadian coast - all of which can base airpower for scouting and convoy cover
3)  provide you sufficient bases (you can build up the lvl 0 aflds to lvl 3 which is good enough for fighters and light attack craft) for airpower and heavies in Sakhalin to bomb Japan
4)  provide you with good sub bases in the Japanese home islands with little risk - meaning most of your damaged subs will have a good chance of makiing it to a port; and note the allied sub force builds up quickly in numbers in mid 44 onwards
5)  forces John to honor the threat of additional invasions and disperse airpower, etc. to Northern Japan
6)  allows you to redeploy your carriers back to Iwo/CPac regions and provide a continual threat with multiple areas to strike

Lastly on a strategic side, if he has really pulled as many troops out of China as it appears and your Burma forces continue to advance - as opposed to advancing down malaya and even into Indochina and slogging out against fort lines in malaria terrain - why not use air transport assets and start shifting supply and forces into China for a drive to the coast somewhere - getting lvl 5 airbases within range of Formosa giving you the ability to interdict shipping skirting the coast into south-west Japan.

Yes, this is pretty much what I am doing. If I can get good bases on Sakhalin Island (and in the Aleutians would be nice too), it will be a big victory as long as my carrier survive in enough numbers to ensure supply convoys can make it here in the future.

Hokkaido was my target because I knew it was lightly defended and had big air bases. Had things gone smoothly, I would already have a big base at Hakodate, with two or three more to follow in short order. My expierence is that by late '43 and into '44 Jap aircraft cannot handle Allied aircraft in big numbers, so there was no way John could retake the island. Shoot, I had 9 Division plus other troops!

But I wasn't totally ignoring the nearby bases. I had smaller units prepped for one of the Kuriles, Toyohara, and one other base that escapes me at the moment.

As for a land war in Asia, no thanks! Here's why. At the moment, the Royal Navy rules the Indian Ocean (mainly because the Jap carriers are all in the Pacific - at least I think that's the case). This permits me to move rapidly - I have a mobile force. That, combined with plentiful airbases close by, permits the Allies to move forward quickly while keeping the ships under LRCAP from good bases. I want to take advantage of my mobility and keep John on his heals here.

[Canoerebel]

Actually, we seldom talk. I've had to ask John to not refer to events in his emails, because I would rather find out by watching a combat replay. And I have never provided details to him until now. We've just reached such a critical point of the game, and things are so weird, that we're each laughing and sweating like crazy, and really enjoying the competition.

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

You guys sure talk a lot in your emails. I don't mention anything gamewise except in the past tense, and even then, usually about things that happened weeks before.

Interesting to see the different styles.

[Andav]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

... We've just reached such a critical point of the game, and things are so weird, that we're each laughing and sweating like crazy, and really enjoying the competition.

Hey Canoerebel,

This is one of the reasons I like this AAR and its companion. Both of you are having a lot of fun and seem to realize this is a game and not life or death. I PBEM with one of my best friends (since UV days). A large part of the fun of the game is talking in generalities about what is going on and trash talking about things which are happening.

Keep having fun and keep us posted on what happens!

Walter

[Canoerebel]

12/9/43
 
1.  John indeed sent his 7th Divsion to Hakodate (a good move, in my opinion) and it prevented my troops from taking this base, though it was closer than I might have expected since 7th Division isn't prepped for the base while my troops are.  I just missed a 1:1, and the attack cost the Japs 763/25 to 1075/44. 
 
2.  The Allies landed at Sapporo, Shikuka, Toyahara, and Adak Island today.  It was almost like this was a well-orchestrated plan instead of a plan spiraling out of control.

3.  Adak is unoccupied, so the Allies ought to take it tomorrow and a base force and engineers are close behind.  This should give the Allies a decent start in this area, and a place to retire towards if my carriers vacate the Hokkaido vicinity. The forces aiming for Kiska, which I believe is unoccupied, are running a few days behinds, but I'm proceeding.  Jap bombers from Amchitka and John's other base in the Aluetians sortied in fairly small numbers, doing light to moderate damage to a handful of transports.

4.  With 7th Division removed to Hakodate, Sapporo is very weakly garrisoned.  Most of 3rd Marines.  The Allies should take this hex tomorrow.  As a result, I think John vacated his aircraft, which is a help.  But in a big irony, my aviation regiment is at Hakodate because that is the base I thought I would take.  I don't have another BF on Hokkaido (the others are on transports further north).  I'll try to get a base force here if I take Sapporo tomorrow.

5.  Troops began landing at the two Jap bases on the long island to the north (it's name escapes me again; Shikoku or Sikhalin).  Both are lightly held, but in Arctic weather only a scattering of troops landed this first day.  Many more will unload tomorrow, assuming the transports aren't sunk by bombers or combat ships.  I should be able to take one or both of these bases in two days.

6.  The Allied CVs were stationed to the far north (near the Russian base of Okha) and weren't involved in any action (letting the transports get clobbered, which is not gallant, but necessary if I'm going to continue the game).  The CVs pulled Hellcats from a single replenishment CVE, so now my CVE TF has 250 Hellcats; not an overwhelming force, but far better than the 150 worn out Hellcats I had three days ago (and about 1/3rd of them were inoperational, but now all are in working order).  I have three other CVEs with light/moderate damage just to the South.

7.  My carriers will head south, taking station about four hexes east of the southern tip of that long island.  The KB is just south of the Kuriles and appears to be on a NW heading, possibly on a mission to help finish off the beleagured Allied transports around Hokkaido.  Weather forecast in the Arctic is blizzard (where my carriers are); weather forecast in the North Pacific is thunderstorms (where the KB is).  The two carrier forces could be in close proximity tomorrow.

8.  Jap LBA chewed up Allied transports, especially at Hakodate (these were badly damaged ships hoping to unload what they could) and Sapporo, with less massive strikes on some ships around that there long island and some strikes elsewhere.  The KB hit an AO TF hard and hit a few scattered and damaged merchant ships.

9.  John finally sent in some combat ships - the one sent in at Sapporo tangled with the Allied combat TF there, with little fighting done by either side.  The Jap combat TF at Hakodate applied the coup-de-grace to many merchant vessels.

10.  The roster of Allied merchant ships sunk rose dramatically today and it's nearing the point where there won't be many targets left.  It would have been worth it without question if the Allies took and could hold big bases on Hokkaido.  I could spend the rest of the war using Hokkaido as a big bombing base and never doing another big invasion, and I think I would still draw even in the game.  All I would need were enough transports to bring supplies, and goodness knows the Allies get enough transports as the game goes on.

11.  The Allies are ashore on Hokkaido and should take Sapporo, but it looks like there aren't enough troops to get Hakodate.  I can probably detail enough troops to seize Ashigara (the inland base, unoccupied) and Wakkanai (lightly held), but I do not have enough troops to withstand a major Jap counterattack when John brings in reinforcements.  If I had big airfields up and running with many aircraft, I could prevent or discourage Jap reinforcement efforts, but I don't.  There is a slim chance I can still accomplish that if I keep my CVs in the area and if they can draw replacement strike aircraft at one of them thar long island ports.  That's a pretty big if, though.

12.  Holding one or both of them thar long island bases could be important if it permits me to renew my carriers.  Also, I have crated Dakotas.  I could unload them and then air transport base force personnel into Sapporo and Ashigara.  That sounds a bit like a pipe-dream at the moment, but I'll keep my options open.

13.  If tomorrow turns sour, I will probably withdraw my carriers and try to get what I can out of there.  My losses will have been massive - not only transports, but men.  I will have lost yet another Marine division.  I am not positive I could recover from such an awful setback even if my carriers survive, but I would make that evaluation then.

14.  If tomorrow isn't totally sour (meaning:  my CVs survive, 3rd Marines take Sapporo, and I'm in a position to take one or both of them thar long island bases), I may continue to try to make something of all this.

15.  There were originally 9 divisions heading to Hokkaido, but not all of them are there, so I may be able to salvage some.  Most of one division somehow ended up in a TF that was heading to Midway from Iwo.  By the time I realized it was with the wrong group, it was too late to catch up, so I sent it back to Iwo (so I'll have most of three divisions there).  A second division is landing at Adak Island.  A few other divisions are still on transports near or at that thar long island.

16.  On the first day of the battle, when John wiped out my carrier-based air, the battle was lost.  John should have then commited his combat ships to hit the invasion beaches.  He also thought I was retiring, so kept his carriers on station SE of Hokkaido, hoping to intercept my fleeing carriers.  But when he realized I wasn't fleeing, he should have come after my CVs immediately.  Now that I have 250 operational Hellcats, there's a chance my carriers can survive.  So I went from about 10% chance of success up to about 40% (had 7th Division been one day slower on the march to Hakodate, that base would now be mine and I would also have Sapporo in hand tomorrow).  Now I'd rate my chances of success at about 20-25%.

17.  If I lose Hokkaido and that thar long island, but save my carriers and hold the Aleutian outposts, I might carry on the battle.

18.  Far to the south, John seems to be sending a big combat TF from Sabang toward Port Blair.  I'm pulling out my transports.  I have a big combat TF and a small one there, and three carrier TFs about to take position between Port Blair and Sabang.  So I hope to get in a good lick here.  My carriers CAP is augmented by P-38Js based at Port Blair.

Onward.

[Canoerebel]

I've had some chance to mull things over, and I'm actually optimistic at the moment.  If the Allies take Sapporo, they should be able to seize Ashigara (unoccupied), which is an inland airbase.  I should also have at least one good base on Sikhalin Island.  But the key is my CVs remaining a viable unit and powerful force.  These three requirements are certainly possible.
 
I've run two other major invasions in this game, one of which became a disaster, the other an overwhelming success.  This one is in between the two.
 
I invaded Wotje a year ago.  I got ashore and took the base with good units, but I didn't have any other bases nearby and could not withstand the overwhelming presence of the Jap navy and airforce.
 
Iwo Jima was a tremendous success.  Keys were:  having Tori Shima and Chichi Jima, though small, to act as a buffers; the fact that there weren't nearby Jap bases to pummel me; and my CVs remained viable.
 
In the Hokkaido invasion, I will have the supporting bases (Sikhalin Island), should be able to establish air bases on Hokkaido, and my CVs are available (for now).  But I am very close to powerful Jap airfields, and the IJN is there.
 
So the Hokkaido operation falls in between the Wotje fiasco and the Iwo triumph.  Can I nudge things towards success, or can John shove them towards failure?

[VSWG]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've had some chance to mull things over, and I'm actually optimistic at the moment.  If the Allies take Sapporo, they should be able to seize Ashigara (unoccupied), which is an inland airbase.

Ashigara will be a great base for your air force since it can't be closed by naval bombardments, but you will depend on the AI to keep it supplied from a port base. It will be very important how many supplies you will capture in Sapporo, and if you are able to keep it supplied in the long run.

Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

12/10/43
 
Gentlemen, I thought today would be the critical day for the Hokkaido invasion and thought there was a fair chance that is was now that I was most likely to lose a carrier battle.  When I received this email from John along with the combat report, I was disheartened:  "Wow.  Another crazy round.  Alotta good for the Japanese but the Allies get a few serious licks in too..."  That is pure propaganda, because this was one of the three best days of the war for the Allies, and if things go right from here then today will have been the turning point of the war.
 
Carrier Battle:  The American and Japanese carrier fleets clashed near the Kuriles.  The Americans had their arm's tied behind their backs, because they had essentially no strike aircraft. But the Hellcats handled everything that came their way, and this battle was basically a mirror image of the first day when the Japs wiped out so many Allied aircraft.  There was one big strike and a handful of small ones.  The Japs lost 494 aircraft (22 Tojo, 14 Tony, 151 Zeke, 162 Zero, 64 Judy, 55 Kate, 19 Jill, 5 Helen, and 1 Sally) in action against the American fleet.  The Allies lost 150 Hellcats, plus 3 TBFs in a feable attack against the Japs.  A few blows were struck:  CV Unryo took a TT from a gallant TBF; the Japs put 3 bombs on the already lightly damaged CV Franklin, one on CVL Bataan, and a TT into BB Mississippi.  (I don't have access to the game at home, so until tomorrow morning I won't be able to open the file and see how badly Franklin is hurt).  Unless those bombs hit something critical, she should still be able to launch.
 
Indian Ocean Battle:  Far to the south, a powerful Jap combat TF including BBs Yamato and Musashi tangled with the Royal Navy at Port Blair, and then RN carriers while trying to retire.  The surface action looked like it favored the Japs (results posted in a little while), but the carriers got revenge.  BB Musashi took a bomb and 5 torpedoes, CL Kiso a torpedo, and 2 DDs went under.  I'm concerened that the RN may have been hurt badly by these large caliber weapons, but I won't know until I open the file.  But the Japs are going to be hurting for BBs now - John had lost four with two or three others recently taking torpedoes near Iwo Jima; now Musashi should go under or be out of the war, and Yamato was hurt somewhat.  Here are the combat reports for this battle:
 
Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 23,34

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 1
BB Musashi, Shell hits 1
CL Kiso
CL Tenryu
DD Kazegumo
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Yudachi
DD Ariake
DD Inazuma, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Fubuki
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1
DD Amagiri
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 1
DD Hakaze, Shell hits 3
DD Yakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Tachikaze
DD Hasu
DD Wakatake
DD Tomozuru
 

Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Shell hits 8
BB Resolution, Shell hits 3, on fire
BC Repulse
CA Cornwall
CL Glasgow
DD John D. Edwards
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 1
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 2
DD Voyager
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer
DD Hotspur, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Nepal
DD Norman
DD Kimberlley, Shell hits 3, on fire

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 23,34

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 1
BB Musashi, Shell hits 1
CL Kiso
CL Tenryu
DD Kazegumo
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Yudachi
DD Ariake
DD Inazuma, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Fubuki
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1
DD Amagiri
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 1
DD Hakaze, Shell hits 3
DD Yakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Tachikaze
DD Hasu
DD Wakatake
DD Tomozuru
 

Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Shell hits 8
BB Resolution, Shell hits 3, on fire
BC Repulse
CA Cornwall
CL Glasgow
DD John D. Edwards
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 1
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 2
DD Voyager
DD Evertsen
DD Kortenaer
DD Hotspur, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Nepal
DD Norman
DD Kimberlley, Shell hits 3, on fire

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 23,34

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 2, on fire
BB Musashi, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CL Kiso, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CL Tenryu, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Kazegumo, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Yudachi, Shell hits 2
DD Ariake, Shell hits 1
DD Inazuma, on fire
DD Fubuki
DD Uranami
DD Amagiri, Shell hits 2
DD Yayoi, Shell hits 8, on fire
DD Hakaze, Shell hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yakaze, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Tachikaze
DD Hasu
DD Wakatake
DD Tomozuru, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
BB Revenge, Shell hits 16, on fire
BB Resolution, Shell hits 13, on fire
BC Repulse, Shell hits 7
CA Cornwall, Shell hits 2
CL Glasgow
DD John D. Edwards, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD John D. Ford
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Voyager
DD Evertsen, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Kortenaer, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Nepal, Shell hits 1
DD Norman
DD Kimberlley, on fire
 
Day Air attack on TF at 22,35


Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 12
Spitfire VIII x 9
B-25J Mitchell x 13


Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 3 damaged
 

Japanese Ships
BB Musashi, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 22,35


Allied aircraft
Corsair IV x 11
Avenger I x 7
Avenger II x 24


No Allied losses
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 22,35


Allied aircraft
Hellcat II x 3
Corsair IV x 10
Avenger I x 29
Avenger II x 8


Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
CL Kiso, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
 
Day Air attack on TF at 21,37

Japanese aircraft
A6M2-N Rufe x 2

Allied aircraft
Hellcat II x 3
Corsair IV x 21
Avenger I x 32
Avenger II x 26

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2-N Rufe: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger I: 4 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Yakaze, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yayoi, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
 
I'm going to take a break and I'll post more in a few minutes.

[Canoerebel]

Here are the combat report details for the Battle of the Kurile Islands:
 
Day Air attack on TF at 77,35

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 20
A6M2 Zero x 8
A6M3a Zero x 9

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 24
TBF Avenger x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 9 destroyed, 5 damaged
TBF Avenger: 3 destroyed, 9 damaged
 

Japanese Ships
CV Unryu, Torpedo hits 1
CV Amagi

Aircraft Attacking:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 2
D4Y Judy x 27

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 2 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 25 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 1
B5N Kate x 18

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 1 destroyed
B5N Kate: 14 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 damaged

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF, near Toyohara at 73,33

Japanese aircraft
Ki-49 Helen x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-49 Helen: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
DD Eaton

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 3000 feet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 2
B6N Jill x 14

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 2 destroyed
B6N Jill: 10 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 154
A6M2 Zero x 90
D4Y Judy x 105
A6M3a Zero x 104
B5N Kate x 18
B6N Jill x 15

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 208

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 136 destroyed
A6M2 Zero: 75 destroyed
D4Y Judy: 39 destroyed, 27 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 85 destroyed
B5N Kate: 10 destroyed
B6N Jill: 5 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 123 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Franklin, Bomb hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CVL San Jacinto
CA Boise, Bomb hits 1
CVL Bataan, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BB Mississippi, Torpedo hits 1

 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on TF at 77,33

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zeke x 17
B6N Jill x 4

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 85

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zeke: 9 destroyed
B6N Jill: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 15 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied Ships
CV Enterprise
 
There were a few other hits in the afternoon, but these were the main clashes.  (For those reading this, see preceding post for narrative of how the Allies won - I think - the Battle of the Kuriles and the Battle of Malacca Straits)
 
Now, I'll do one more post to summarize what else happened and where I go from here.

[Canoerebel]

Now, for the rest of the day (those just arriving at my AAR, see the preceeding two posts for the details about the big air and sea battles in the Kuriles and the Malacca Straits; this post is to finish up with important details for the day):
 
1.  The Jap navy and airforce wreaked more havoc on Allied transports, mainly at Hakodate, Sapporo, and a number of TFs retiring towards Midway.  This continued the utter carnage incurred by Allied transports; but there is no question the cost is worth it if the Allies can establish a permanent and strong presence at Hokkaido and or Sakhalin Island (well, the latter isn't nearly as good as the former, I should add).  John has probably sunk 200 transports over the past five or six days.
 
2.  The Allies took Toyahara and Adak Island!  So, finally, the Allies have a port and airfield in the area.  Can I afford to send my CVs to Toyahara to replenish (assuming there are enough supplies there to permit such)?  Perhaps, since I think Jap carrier air is crippled, and since John had to vacate his airfield at Sapporo.  This COULD work!  I'll know better when I open the turn file and see what is where and how many supplies are available.
 
3.  The Allies failed to take Sapporo despite light resistance, but it will fall tomorrow barring divine intervention.  See the end of this post for the combat results there.
 
4.  Major questions now are:  how many supplies are at Toyahara and how many will be at Sapporo when I take that base tomorrow?  (Also, these bases have resources, etc., so will they generate their own supplies?)
 
5.  What will the Allies do?  Tomorrow they should take Sapporo and the middle base on Sakhalin Island, adding to Toyarhara.  If Toyohara has good supplies, and if it looks like the carrier battle crippled John's ability to strike offensively, I will send my combat ships and carriers to Toyahara.  If the situation isn't as good as I had hoped, I will probably head for that middle base, which is more remote.
 
6.  The Allies have about 800 AV ashore on Hokkaido - 450 at Hakodate, 350+ at Sapporo.  This isn't enough to withstand a determined and prolonged Jap counteroffensive, but if the American carriers remain viable and potent and can stay in the area until the situation stabalizes, I think I have a chance to hold these gains.  Holding big bases at Hokkaido and Sakhalin Island is "everything" - do it and I've won a great victory; fail and I've lost pretty much everything.
 
7.  The icing on the cake is the new base in the Aleutians, plus the results at Port Blair and vicinity.
 
Ground combat at Sapporo

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 17071 troops, 194 guns, 17 vehicles, Assault Value = 445

Defending force 5055 troops, 121 guns, 4 vehicles, Assault Value = 73

Allied max assault: 782 - adjusted assault: 238

Japanese max defense: 54 - adjusted defense: 33

Allied assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 6)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 0


Japanese ground losses:
121 casualties reported
Guns lost 12
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
632 casualties reported
Guns lost 12
Vehicles lost 10