Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

Yes, this is a most ticklish operation.  Here's what I've decided:
 
1)  The most important thing is to protect my carriers.  If I do, then I'm in good shape even if I lose everything on Hokkaido.
 
2)  My carriers took station NW of Wakkanai on the 21st.  Some Hellcats took it on themselves to fly LRCAP over Wakkanai and did good service protecting the Marines and shooting down Jap aircraft (for the day, the Japs lost 54 aircraft in a-2-a fighting, the Allies 24).  But attrition to my Hellcats, plus the exposed position and declining fuel reserves, prompted me to cancel the operation to evacuate troops through Sapporo.  That base is just too exposed.
 
3)  The most likely effort will be to take Wakkanai by pulling troops back from Hakodate and Sapporo.  That will be a tough operation, because the massed Jap army will be right on their heals.  Again, I may lose my Hokkaido forces, but I'm satisfied with my position as long as I protect my carriers and hold Sikhalin Island.  And I will hold Sikhalin as long as my carriers are in good shape.
 
4)  John tried a shoe-string invasion of Sapporo this turn.  A few APs arrived but were chewed up by subs and mines and didn't seem to land anyone.  John also tried a parachute drop, but that detachment evaporated.  I had just shifted 19th Combat Engineers to a vacant Ashigara fearing John would try some para-assaults.
 
5)  Shikuka just went to level 2 airfield, and Adak Island to level 3.  So these bases are building nicely despite Arctic winter conditions.
 
6)  Recon has sighted Jap transports moving east of Japan - I assume these are targeting the Aluetuains (but they could be making a run for the Kuriles).  Kiska is weakly garrisoned and therefore vulnerable, but I think Adak Island is pretty secure (with AV 200).  I don't have bombers at Adak yet, but they will begin arriving in a day or two).
 
7)  My carrier will return to port at Shikuka, draw replacement Hellcats, and monitor the situation to see if the Japs are up to something that it's necessary to contest.  If not, pretty soon I'll move my carriers south to rendezvous with supply, fuel, and reinforcement convoys moving north from Midway.  The timing of this will be ticklish too.  I'd like to get those convoys moving north as soon as possible to permit rendezvous as far north as possible, but the two Mini-KBs are still patroling those waters.  However, I'm pretty sure they are low on mission sorties and fuel, so they'll have to pull back for awhile.  So there may be a chance to move while they are absent.
 
8)  Iwo Jima/Tori Shima:  As noted above, I think the Jap counter-invasion target is more likely the Kuriles or Aleutians, so I'm less worried about this area.
 
9)  CBI:  The Allies continue to organize and position troops for upcoming operations.  Things will heat up here considerably in a few weeks.  I don't know if John has the troops or the desire to hotly contest this area.  He might send the KB or massed LBA this way, or he may decide to focus more on Hokkaido.  Even if he defends vigorously, though, I think the Allies have the numbers to make progress detrimental to long-term Jap health.  Fairly soon I hope the Allies will have some important bases within striking distance of Palembang and Singapore.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

12/20/43 and 12/21/43

Actually, the preceding post covers most of the events of December 20, 1943, so this post deals with the 21st, which was a fairly quiet day.  But there was one imporant Allied air strike...

Hokkaido:  The Japs tried another paratroop assault on Sapporo with identical results (the 'Chutes evaporated).  I've ordered 19th Combat Engineers forward from Ashigara to Wakkanai.  Their place will be taken by a detachment of an Army division, whose duty is to protect Ashigara from a paratroop assault.  A bombardment TF led by BB Pennsylvania will hit Wakkanai tonight and 3rd Marines will try a deliberate assault tomorrow.  The Japs are resting and regrouping at Hakodate.  How much longer can my guys remain there?

Sikhalin Island:  The U.S. CVs withdrew without incident and will reach Shikuka tonight.  They will replenish air squadrons, try to refuel from transports, and prepare for the move SE toward Midway to rendezvous with the supply, fuel, and reinforcement convoys that haven't deparated yet.  BB Washington and CV Benjamin Franklin have all but eliminated FLT damage now.  I'll probably send them back to Hawaii when the CV TFs depart.

Iwo Jima/Japan:  I set Iwo's PBY Liberators and B-24s to strike Sendai again, and despite a stout CAP they managed to further damage CV Soryu and CVE Unyo.  Four 500 pounders hit Soryu, each leading to reports of "critical damage, massive casualties" and such.  Soryu is now "on fire" with "heavy damage."  That should put her out of the war for months, further whittling down the KB.  I've thought Unyo was mortally wounded for days now, but perhaps she's hanging on by the skin of her teeth.  At Iwo, CVE Casablanca, damaged many weeks ago in the big battle in which CV Intrepid and CVL Langley went under, has reduced SYS damage to 21 now.

North Pacific:  I think the southern-most Mini-KB has pulled back toward Marcus Island.  The northern Mini-KB is continuing east, well south of Adak Island, hitting crippled merchant ships.  But the pickings are beginning to dwindle.  Most undamaged transports have now reached Midway or Hawaii, and there aren't very many damaged ships left out there now.

Midway:  Many supply and fuel transports are here ready to depart for Sikhalin Island. CVE Anzio is safely in port and her FLT damage has declined dramatically, so she appears safe.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/43 and 12/23/43
 
Hokkaido:  I've described my plan to move my troops out of Hakodate and Sapporo, to try and take Wakkanai, and to then try to pull out as much as I can through that base.  On the 22nd, I debated long and hard about whether to switch prep for my troops at Hakodate to Wakkanai, and to issue orders for them to begin moving that way.  I couldn't decide - I just didn't feel like it was quite time to evacuate.  John took care of my indecision, though.  His troops launched a 4:1 shock attack on the 23rd, suffering 4251/127/6 to 511/13/1 and booted all but one Allied unit from the hex.  So at least I now know what to do - Wakkani is the only option (although I do have some barges heading into Sapporo over the next two turns and they might be able to Dunkirk a few troops).  So everybody has been issued orders to proceed to Wakkanai.  Whether I have enough to take the hex I don't know, but all I can do is try.  The main thing is to continue protecting my carriers (still in port at Shikuka).  It looks like a bunch of Jap CVs are at Hakodate.  I'll keep my eye on them.  Detachments of 503rd Paratroops have taken two more of the vacant Kuriles; there's just one to go now.  The Pennsylvania bombardment group hit Wakkanai two nights ago and scored ten more hits on BB Mutsu, but the bombardment didn't do enough to allow a deliberate attack by 3rd Marine Division to get anywhere.  Today, bombers from Shikuka hit the port and scored eight hits on Mutsu.  Will that ship ever go down?  Total hits must be somewhere north of 75 now.
 
Aleutians:  I moved a low-experience, big B-24 squadron to Adak Island two days ago and they've been all over several Jap transport convoys at Cold Harbor and other Jap bases.  It's made things hot for the Japs here, and the pilots' experience level is already up from 59 to 61.  Adak's airfield is 33% to level 4.  The badly disrupted Army division is growing stronger slowly, but steadly.  The total AV at the base is now about 205 and, given time, will reach 450 or so.
 
North Pacific:  The northern Jap Mini-KB has about run out of targets, and perhaps is low on mission sorties, and is now moving SW on a course that would take it near Midway towards Marcus Island.  My transports remain in port at Midway and won't sail for Shikuka Island until the "coast is clear" as best I can determine.  I probably won't try to get this convoy to Shikuka until I finish the effort to evacuate Hokkaido.  Until then, I'll need my carriers up there.
 
CBI:  The "lost in the jungle" troops have begun arriving at Moulmein on the way to Rangoon.  The next amphibious operations may be ready to go by New Year's.

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...
The next amphibious operations may be ready to go by New Year's.

That sounds like John and you have decided to continue the game into '44, right? [8D][;)]

[Canoerebel]

We actually haven't discussed anything.  I'm "assuming" that the game will continue - on my part I want it to.  I need to tell him that my armistice offer is "off the table."  I have a much better feel for the situation now and I think the Allies are in fairly good shape, although there will be plenty of bumps and bruises on the road ahead. Overall, I think the British are ready to make big moves in CBI, I think the Allied situation on Sikhalin Island is pretty good (with the benefit of serving as a big bombing bases in 1944, plus I think John will be forced to feed forces into battle here, which I hope will cost him alot), the Allied position on Iwo and the Aluetians gives them the ability to strike there, and eventually the Allies will move in SoPac or CenPac and I think the Japs will be relatively week there as John has to focus on more critical areas.  Overall, I feel fairly confident that the Allies can at least earn a draw in this game.  That seemed totally impossible one year ago when the Japs nearly took all of Australia and almost achieved an auto-victory.

[DW]

As you're well aware, this is going to be a delicate operation.

But, buck up. It reminds me a bit of the retreat from the retreat from the Choson Reservoir during the Korean war, and they pulled it off.

Keep in mind that if your attack on Wakkani fails, you can evacuate across the beaches without controlling the hex.

I've seen it done plenty of times in other AARs. You probably won't be able to get as much off, but at least you won't lose entire units.

I know you'll have your shipping ready to go, and your carriers ready to cover them, but you might want to consider setting your carriers to escort, rather than air combat, and have them follow a surface combat task force.

You mentioned that you think John has carriers in the area, and you don't want your carriers to react. Others in this forum have suggested that they won't react if their give an escort mission. I can't vouch for that, but it might be worth a try.

Again, good luck.

I'm pulling for you.

[Canoerebel]

Somebody in here mentioned the "trick" of changing air combat TFs to escort TFs to thwart the "react" glitch.  I did so some weeks ago and my CVs are thus safe from reacting.  Shikuka is only about three hexes from Wakkanai, so my carriers are in a good spot to help protect the beach there (or the port if I'm fortunate enough to take it).  I'll employ lots of barges to evacuate from the beaches, should that become necessary.
 
BTW, just finished our next turn and BB Mutsu finally went down.  That's seven Jap BBs confirmed sunk, with others (Hiei and Yamato) damaged.  I think Hyuga is the only serviceable Jap BB remaining.  To me, that's been one of the biggest pluses of this Allied operation.  It's really whittled down the IJN combat ships (while at the same time the Japs have really whittled down the Allied transport fleets).
 
Somebody asked me via pm to update about CBI.  Here's a more comprehensive picture of what is going on.
 
The Allies hold Rangoon, Moulmein, Tavoy, and Port Blair.  The latter three fell one-after-another a month ago.  Since then, the Allies have been moving troops to Rangoon to rest, refit, and prep for upcoming amphibious operations.  I think the troops (and transports) will soon be ready to go.  These next operations will focus on bases down the coast of Malaya and in Sumatra.  I decided on that course of action rather than a move across to Bangkok because it allows me to make better use of the RN:  carriers, combat ships, and the mobility afforded by transports.
 
At the moment, the RAF rules the skies in CBI, partly because of numbers and quality, and partly because John of necessity has alot of his assets in Japan and Hokkaido.  RAF heavies just wiped out Bangkok's resources and have long since persuaded John to evacuate all his forward airfields (though he's just moved some back to Bangkok, probably hoping to strike Allied merchant shipping; but I will try to demonstrate to him that this wasn't a wise move).  RAF medium bombers have been working over Jap ground troops at Raeheng and in the jungles.  When the ampbibious operations get under way, the RAF will assist in bombing troops and suppressing Japanese airfields.
 
I expect big things from the British over the coming months, and hope it create even more pressure on John as he tries to figure out how to meet pressing needs at widely separated points.

[Canoerebel]

Gents,
 
I am departing for a three- or four night backpacking trip on the Appalachian Trail in our Georgia mountains.    Last year's expedetion turned into a commemoration of the Bataan Death March as we suffered from extreme heat, thunderstorms, egregious chaffing (TMI, I know), and near encounters with copperheads and a rattlesnake.  This year the forecast is significantly more moderate, but backpacking is backpacking.  It may be tough.  Anyhow, I shall return! in a few days.  Until then, best to all of you.  No need in replying with best wishes (assuming, of course, that anybody would feel like granting them) as I'm out of here.
 
Canoe "Trail of Tears" Rebel

[ny59giants]

If you make it as far as NE Tenn, look me up. The trail goes less than 10 miles from my home. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

12/24/43 to 12/26/43
 
Appalachian Trail:  My sons and I completed our A.T. backpacking trip, covering 37 miles over three days.  Unlike last year's "Death March" experience, this year was pure pleasure.  Why the difference?  Instead of brutal heat and humidity it was unseasonably mild with low humidity.  Free air conditioning.  NYGiants, thanks for the offer.  When we hit that section of the trail "one of these days," we'll look you up!  It's always good to have potential ports in a storm.
 
The Game:  Over these three days the Allies have concentrated on moving and position forces as we prepare for the next phase of the game.  I'm sure John is moving and positioning forces for moves that may delay or impede my plans.  We'll see, though.
 
Hokkaido:  My troops are on the move to Wakkanai, but are strung out from that hex all the way to the hex south of Sapporo.  So far, none of John's units have moved north from Hakodate.  I am hoping he's expecting me to reinforce and try to hold Sapporo.  I've had barges moving in and out and he may be assuming they are bringing reinforcements when in fact they are evacuating.  He sent a surface combat TF (DDs and CL Yubari) there on the 26th and they damaged or sank a handful of barges, but Yubari took a TT from a sub.  The bulk of my troops ought to reach Wakkanai in three of four days, and should have at least a day or two to attack before any Jap reinforcements could arrive even if they are moving north from Hakodate right now.  Recon sighted a large Jap TF heading northwest from Hakodate - perhaps eight CAs - and I think this may include carriers.  I would be a bit surprised if John would seek a carrier engagement now.  My CVs remain posted a hex SE of Shikuka.  On the 26th, 40 PBYs and 5 B-17s hit Jap shipping at Hakodate, damaging 7 APs and 1 AK.
 
Kuriles:  The Allies will take the last of these islands on the 27th.
 
Aleutians:  John seems to be evacuating troops from his eastern-most bases. Adak Island is 60% to level four airfield.
 
North Pacific:  No more sightings of Mini-KBs.
 
Australia:  Troops continue to gather at the crossroads west of Sydney and in about seven days will advance towards Broken Hill.
 
CBI:  Most of the "jungle army" has arrived at Moulmein or even Rangoon.  The rest should reach Rangoon within four days, so loading will soon commence for the amphibious operations.

[Canoerebel]

12/27/43
 
Hokkaido:  The Japanese army at Hakodate is moving north, so it will be a race for the Allies to take Wakkanai and then either try a Dunkirk or attempt to hold it.  My troops should have about four days to attack before the big Jap army can make it that far.  I'm not sure yet if John realizes I'm pulling out of Sapporo.
 
Sikhalin Island/Kuriles/Aleutians:  The big 4EBs from Toyahara struck again, putting six more bombs into already stricken CV Soryu at Ominato.  B-24s from Adak Island then scored a single hit against CV Taiho, part of a Mini-KB cruising well to the south.  I bet that really ticked off John.  The Allies took the last of the Kuriles.
 
CBI:  Forces continue to gather at Rangoon.
 
Kamikaze Effect:  John will have kamikazes available in just four days.  I expect him to unleash them in some kind of combined attack, trying to hit the Allied CVs at Shikuka and/or the RN transports and combat ships around Port Blair and Rangoon.  So we'll be at Code Red in early January as that seems like a likely time for the Japs to try something on a big scale.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/43 to 1/1/44
 
Happy New Year!  John is feeling his oats as the Japanese army is in the process of reclaiming Hokkaido, but I hope it will just be a temporary feeling...
 
Hokkaido:  The Japs reclaimed vacant Sapporo on 12/30/43 after the Allies had pulled out for Wakkanai.  The Jap army continues to advance, taking Ashigara on New Year's Day, but the Allied army is at Wakkanai making progress towards taking that town.  The first Allied attack on the 31st came in at 1:1 and dropped forts to 3; the second attack on the 1st came it at 2:1 and dropped forts to 2.  The Allies will try a shock attack tomorrow.  It had better succeed, because the Jap army will arrive in just a few days.  John is also sending transports.  An Allied sub damaged two APs WNW of Sapporo.  A big Allied combat TF will arrive at Wakkanai tonight, and I hope it will be stout enough to prevent the Jap transports from unloading.  The US CVs will take station just two hexes ENE of Wakkanai for the same purpose - hitting Jap transports.  If the Allies take Wakkanai, I'll try to evacuate as many troops as I can.  The Allies prefer to focus their defenses on Sikhalin Island.
 
Aleutians:  Adak Island airfield is now level 4.  At this point, I don't think John will be able to threaten the Allied position in the Aleutians.  Eventually, the Allies should have the ships and troops to begin retaking some of the Jap held islands.
 
Iwo Jima & Vicinity:  Allied minelayers are hard at work.  Iwo has 23k+ mines; Tori Shima has 2,000.
 
Australia:  the Allied army gathering at the crossroads west of Sydney will move out toward Broken Hill in a day or two.
 
CBI:  The Allies are loading transports at Rangoon.  The closest targets are Sabang on the western tip of Sumatra (garrisoned by 30k Japanese) and Victoria Point on the west coast of the Malay Peninsula (garrisoned by 40k or 50k Japanese).  It appears that the little base of Medan (north coast of Sumatra) is lightly garrisoned by just two Jap units some 6k strong.  I am leaning toward hitting Medan first to establish an airbase and to cut off the Jap units at Sabang.  I have four Chinese units prepping for Medan (all around 30 to 40).  The trouble with Medan is that it is a little forward and within range of alot of Jap airfields; but the obvious advantage is that it is lightly held.  If I took it quickly, I could get fighter cover to protect other landings while at the same time isolating the Jap units in western Sumatra.  So I think I'll proceed. 

[JeffroK]

Gday,
 
A bad case of driving from the back set but,
 
Take advantage of the Allies ability to hit or THREATEN a number of points at the same time. It may have turned out better if your Sumatra invasion tied in closer, maybe even a week before your Hokkaido invasion. This COULD have seen JIII react towards SE Asia and give you a few more days grace before KB arrived.
 
Your idea of medan is good, hit him where he isnt, but make sure you have a force that can handle the reinforcements he can send in. If you have a large Dakota/C46/C47 force available in SEAsia, have them in Rangoon and have them fly in LCU, a quick way to reinforce.
 
And always have a reserve, able to get into action quickly, he may strip some bases to hit your main invasion and they may easily be picked up by a few Bdes in APDs or a parachute drop.
 
I hope you keep the game going, its been "interesting" and might see more AFB using the Northern route, or JFB sending more defenders there which could have been of more use elsewhere.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/44 and 1/3/44
 
Hokkaido:  The Allied combat TF took station at Wakkanai, but failed to engage the Jap troop transports that arrived.  Over two days, the Japs landed about 10,000 soldiers while the American carriers launched a series of strikes against Jap AKs and APs.  On the 3rd, John sent a small combat TF to Wakkanai (CL Agano and six DDs) on some kind of suicide mission.  Over two rounds of combat, BB Pennsylvania, CA Vincennes, two CLs, three DDs, and a DMS savaged the Japanese ships.  Somewhat to my surprise, Jap LBA focused on hitting the airfield at Toyohara rather than my exposed ships, so thus far the Allied naval forces have led a charmed life.  But on the ground, things don't look good.  On the 2nd, a 3:1 shock attack dropped forts from two to zero and it looked like the Allies would take the base on the 3rd.  However, the Jap transports dropped off enough soldiers to force a 0:1 attack on the 3rd (why, oh why, didn't my combat ships attack the Jap transports???).  Anyhow, I have decided it won't be possible to take this hex, so I've ordered my transports to begin loading on the beaches.  I already have two big transport TFs there, with several more to arrive tonight.  It's possible that John won't commit any more combat ships out of fear of repeating today's results.  I've sent the Pennsylvania TF home to Shikuka.  It's place is taken by the BB Massachusetts TF.  The carriers will move a hex east (a total of three hexes from Wakkanai).  At this point, I just want to get some troops off Wakkanai, but I sure want to protect my CVs.  (Note:  Six more Jap DDs were badly damaged or sunk, and CL Agano took a TT and at least on 14" shell from Pennsylvania; on the 2nd, carrier bombers sank CL Tatsuta; so the IJN suffering continues).
 
Sikhalin Island:  Jap LBA from Hakodate and Ominato are hitting Toyohara in big numbers, destroying more than 100 Allied aircraft on the ground.  Right now, though, my fighters are mainly committed to protecting the ships at Wakkanai.  As soon as I get as many troops as possible out of that port, I'll shift protection to Toyohara.
 
Iwo:  PBY Liberators and B-24s from Iwo hit the port of Tokyo, scoring a hit against BB Ise and several against CL Katori.
 
Australia:  The Aussie army is on the move toward Broken Hill in big numbers.  This time they'll make a concerted effort to take this base.
 
CBI:  An RN bombardment TF hit Sabang again, doing further damage to the AK, AS, AR, and MLE previously damaged.  British transport TFs are loading or have finished loading at Rangoon and are moving toward Port Blair.  These transports are carrying troops prepped for Medan, Kuala, and Sabang.  Many troops will be in reserve at Rangoon, primarily prepped for Sabang and various bases on the Malay peninsula.  Liberator IIIs from Rangoon hit the airfield at Georgetown in big numbers.

[Canoerebel]

1/4/44
 
Judging from the excited comments in his emails, John is fully engaged in the game again and feeling good about his progress on Hokkaido.  I feel like things are going well for the Allies.  One of us has to be wrong, right?
 
Hokkaido:  The Allied "Dunkirk" operation is going much better than expected.  The transports have loaded most of 3rd Marine Division and an Army division and should pick up the rest of the units overnight, including elements of two HQ, combat engineers, an armored regiment, and a field artillery unit (whatever doesn't load tonight will probably be wiped out as the Japs will surely attack tomorrow; the Allied combat AF is down to 18 so they won't put up much of a defense).  Jap mines claimed a few barges and John's LBA - both bombers and kamikazes - scored a few hits on transports.  But the damage to the transport fleet was minimal and Allied CAP and flak did a good job.  Jap Bombers scored about 15 hits against BB Massachusetts, but this too did minimal damage (SYS 9, FLT 0, Fires 20).  One good thing about kamikazes is that they go down in big numbers against first class fighters and flak.  On the day, the Japs lost 207 aircraft (88 a2a; 23 field; 80 flak; 16 ops) to just 22 for the Allies.
 
The Situation "Up North":  The Allied CVs will spend one more day at sea, providing some protection to the fleet at Wakkanai, and then make for port at Shikuka.  If they escape damage tomorrow (and I'll hold my breath when I get the turn back), I'll consider this entire operation tremendously successful.  The Allies will have gotten many more troops than expected off Hokkaido; I don't think the Japs can invade Sikhalin Island because (a) it's winter and whatever troops he could land would be badly disorganized; (b) the Allied AV at Toyohara and Shikuka will be pretty stout; (c) the presence of Allied combat ships and carriers - especially BBs, as John doesn't have any of those left.  So I think the Allied hold on Sikhalin Island is very strong.  I have plenty of supplies and can build the airfields.  B-29s will begin arriving at Karachi in three months, and they will go to Shikuka where they can begin hitting targets in Japan.
 
Iwo:  I don't think the Japs can really threaten Iwo now (mines, battleships, and stout garrisons) and the bases there (and at Tori and Chichi) make a nice compliment to the bases on Sikhalin.  From these two areas Allied LBA poses a threat to every port in Japan.
 
Australia:  The troops continue marching toward Broken Hill.
 
CBI:  The RN combat TF and three carrier TFs will move SW from Port Blair tonight, taking station between Sabang and Georgetown to see if the Jap airforce reacts.  The Medan invasion TF will accompany them and will then move toward Medan if things look good.  Many more transport TFs are either loading at Rangoon or already on the way to Port Blair.  These carry the troops slated for Sabang.
 
Summary:  All in all, I think the Allies are in pretty good shape to move on from the "massive invasion stage" to the next stage:  moving forward in CBI and "protecting and building up" Sikhalin Island.

[Alsadius]

(Posted to both threads)

I just wanted to say how good of a read this dual AAR has been. I've been reading it straight since someone linked me to it on Saturday, and it's been hugely entertaining. The scary thing is, I've never even played WitP - got a copy on Sunday, but have been too busy reading this to even install it yet - and yet it was still a great read. Thanks to both of you, and I'm sure I'll enjoy it now that I have free time again. Good luck to both of you.

[Canoerebel]

1/5/44
 
Hokkaido:  The effort to evacuate the American troops from Hokkaido has gone far better than the most optimistic commander could have envisioned.  When I decided to try a Dunkirk operation a week or so ago, I figured I would lose many troops and that I would be risking alot of transports, combat ships, and - heaven forbid! - my carriers.  Instead, after two days, nearly all troops have loaded and many of the transport TFs are already well on their way to either Toyohara or Shikuka.  A few heavily laden transport TFs remain at Wakkanai, but all will sail tonight and if my luck holds that will be the end of it.  The only negative is that a major part of 7th Army Division, my rearguard unit, slowed down and for some reason didn't advance the last step into Wakkanai (it was at 59 lapsed miles).  Had it done so, I could have gotten it out too.  But since it failed to move, a Jap shock attack stopped them in their tracks and I'll lose this outfit (not all of it, however, as about 75 AV of 7th Division is already at Toyohara).
 
Shikuka:  The Allied CVs will move north 120 miles and take station 60 miles ESE of Shikuka.  The airfield at this port went to level four today, so the field can hold 200 aircraft.  Most of the squadrons stationed there are fighters (at least three P-38, two Corsair, and one or two Hellcat).  One of the P-38 units will fly LRCAP over the carriers; several other squadrons will fly LRCAP over Toyahara.  Tomorrow I'll send my CVs into port and concentrate most fighter protection here - after all, Shikuka is just six or seven hexes from Sapporo and only three or four from Wakkanai and I don't want a massed Jap attack to give me a heart attack by hitting my carriers.  My combat ships and carriers are woefully short on fuel, but the first tanker will arrive in two days, with a "train" of solo tankers following every few days (hopefully that sort of spacing will thwart any effort by John to use the KB to impose a blockade).  My carriers will spend a good week or two in port; then, when the time seems right, I will send them three or four days SE toward Hawaii/Midway to rendezvous with larger supply convoys and to escort part of the way home some of the multitude of ships I have in port.
 
Overall Situation Up North:  I don't think John can successfully invade Sikhalin Island anytime soon, if ever.  Even though Toyahara is just two hexes north of Wakkanai, he would face prohibitive problems:  (1) a winter invasion in the Arctic has dramatically negative results on unit disruption, so even if he landed a large number of troops they would be ill-prepared to fight; (2)  I think John is now woefully short on combat ships so that my BBs and CAs would be able to control the landing hex; (3) my carrier-based air would be just a few hexes to the north and could savage his ships; (4) once the Dunkirk troops land, the Allied AV at Toyahara and Shikuka will exceed 1,000 and will increase markedly as the troops recover from invasion-induced disruption. I expect John will do his best to attack Sikhalin Island by air, sea, and/or land.  What I would like to see happen is Allied fighters seriously diminish the experience level of the Japanese pilots by downing aircraft in big numbers.  A second important element of the Allied plan is to base 4E bombers here, especially when B-29s become available in April.
 
Australia:  John has caught wind of the army advancing on Broken Hill.  These troops will arrive in three or four days.  I'll be interested in seeing whether John intends to hold the hex.
 
CBI:  The RN invasion force took station some 240 miles NW of Sabang, with the transports trailing by a hex.  Jap bombers sortied from various bases on Sumatra and faired poorly against a CAP of about 85 Corsairs and 11 Hellcats.  A few managed to hit a couple of transports, but no harm done.  I figure John will have loaded up most of his airbases to strike tomorrow, so I've taken steps to try to counter such a move.  The invasion TF will only advance one hex and will receive LRCAP from P-38s based at Port Blair.  Medium bombers based at Moulmein and Rangoon will hit the Jap airfield at Victoria Point.  Heavy bombers will strike Georgetown and Alor Star (assuming they agree to fly).  Right now I'm just pussyfooting around hoping that the high-quality RN fighters will shoot down alot of Jap strike aircraft.
 
Air Losses:  On the day, the Japs lost 84 aircraft (65 a2a, 6 field, 3 flak, 10 ops) to just 15 for the Allies.  The favorable kill ratio of the past two days is the kind of result I need over a sustained period to begin to erode the skill level of Jap pilots.
 
Alsadius:  Thanks for the encouraging note and welcome to the WitP community.  I hope you have plenty of self-control (I don't!) as it will help you maintain a balanced life.  Otherwise, WitP is majestically addictive.

[ny59giants]

If you have extra patrol planes to spare, you can use them to pick up some of your isolated troops on Hokkaido. As long as they are on a coastal hex and he doesn't have CAP over the hex, you should be able to get them out. The Coronado has the best load capacity, if they are available. 

[Canoerebel]

1/06/44
 
NYGiants:  Thanks, I hadn't thought of that.  I have a Coronado unit at Shikuka and I've ordered it to make a run to Hokkaido to pick up part of the stranded 7th Division (these troops are up against 140,000 Japanese in the wooded hex south of Wakkanai and have held for two turns, but they won't hold out much longer).

Operation Blue Planet:  This operation is now complete - and a tremendous success - after a quiet day.  No Jap aircraft sortied against the two airbases on Sikhalin Island nor against my carriers, which will return to port tonight.  The troop transports will either arrive at Shikuka tonight or are already there and unloading.  Thanks to unexpectedly successful Dunkirk operation, the Allies will have about 2000 AV ashore on Sikhalin Island, and the AV will grow steadily as each unit recovers slowly from disruption (only one unit - 1st Cavalry Division at Shikuka - is at 100%, the rest are badly disrupted, by I have plenty of supplies so they should steadily improve).  Operation Blue Planet was a tremendous success both strategically (seizing big bases close to the Japanese Homeland so that the Allies can take the war to the Japanese homeland in 1944) and tactically (the Allies lost a huge number of transports, but the carriers, combat ships, and troops are in good shape; in contrast, the Japs lost a great number of combat ships - especially battleships - and some irreplaceable carriers.  This operation went from essentially zero percent chance of success (after the Japs wiped out Allied carrier strike aircraft and 75% of the fighters) to complete success over the course of about a week.  The major reasons for the turn-around:  (1) John thought the Allies would pull back after losing most of their carrier aircraft, so he positioned his ships to the east rather than moving in for the kill; (2) he had a bunch of carriers off in the North Pacific patrolling the sea lanes between Midway and the Aleutians - if he had concentrated his carriers and then moved them in to engage the neutered American carriers he would have crushed the defenseless fleet; (3) on a turn in which I was positive John would send his combat ships in to savage the Allied troop transports at Hakodate, he didn't, giving me a day to land more troops; (4) he dispersed his carriers in several TFs that had meager CAP, so that Allied 4E bombers that transferred to Sapporo and Toyahara scored big hits; (5) the suface engagement between the US combat TF and several Jap carrier TFs escorted only by DDs cost the Japs one CVL - Chiyoda was just confirmed sunk today - and damage to others including some that bombers later sank (CV Hiryu) or crippled (CV Soryu).  Now that Operation Blue Planet is complete, the Allies must protect their Sikhalin Island bases and continue to protect their carriers at all costs.  Will John try to counter-invade?  That's the big question.

CBI:  The RAF/RN "ambush" of Jap bombers worked pretty well.  The carriers, combat ships, and transports took station NW of Sabang and put up a CAP of 95 Corsairs, 11 Hellcats, and about 35 P-38s.  Jap bombers sortied in relatively small numbers from bases like Victoria Point, Sabang, and a few other places, but faired poorly.  Allied bombers from Moulmein and Rangoon hit the airfields at Victoria Point and Georgetown.  On the day, the Japs lost 79 aircraft (59 a2a, 11 field, 4 flak, 5 ops) and the Allies 22.  As best I can tell John has pulled most of his aircraft out of his advanced bases.  I've ordered my invasion fleet to penetrate deeper into the Malacca Straits.  If they fair well tomorrow, the invasion fleet will then try to make it to Medan the day after tomorrow.  I will probably risk exposing the transports for that run while the carriers hang back a bit.  I don't mind losing a few transports in order to keep my carriers in a position where P-38s can provide LRCAP.

[Canoerebel]

Situation in the Malacca Straits, January 6, 1944: