George vs. Seille - A Russia 1941 AAR over 60 turns

[george1972]

ORIGINAL: seille
First of all i want to correct the possible impression that George has such a immense disadvantage in production.
Even he has he can actually use Minsk, Riga, Kiev and Kharkov as a own bonus.
And for the huge amount of supply he has to produce: Large attack armies (many tanks and artillery) and using
them a lot -> bigger supply need
Smaller and more defensive army with few tanks and no artillery -> smaller supply need [;)]

The comments I make in my reports are mostly my views at the time and not an objective view. I should perhaps made that more clear. To clarify the production issue, here are some raw numbers:

Code: Select all

 Turn      Country       Major Centers       Minor Centers     Bonus      Total PP's   Relative
                          (25.000 PP)          (5.000 PP)    (Lend-Lease)
 1 ('41)   Germany            2                   3              0%        65.000      100%
           USSR               3                   8              0%       115.000      177%
 
 Turn      Country       Major Centers       Minor Centers     Bonus      Total PP's
                          (25.000 PP)          (5.000 PP)    (Lend-Lease)
 12 ('42)  Germany            2                   7              0%        85.000      100%
           USSR               3                   4             25%       118.750      140%
 

So initially, the Wehrmacht is being out-produced by 77%, which explains the Red Army's resurrection in the first year. Now at the start of the new year, the Russian advantage is 39% (33.750 PP's).

Suppose both armies need 25.000 PP's for producing supplies, then the PP's left for raising troops become 60.000 to 93.750, giving the USSR a 56% production advantage. And this is the number I was referring to.

At least to me it seemed a pretty big number at the time and I suspected that if the Red Army would engage in attrition warfare with comparable losses on both sides, my troops would melt away within half a year or so.

Why that didn't happen, is a question this AAR will attempt to answer in the coming reports.

[seille]

With your calculated LL bonus you´re wrong, George.
It is not 25% it is 25k production points. Like a 4th major center.
 
Means i have 120.000 PP vs 85.000 you have actually.
 
Looking at the fact you have a modern ass kicking army while i´m still in buildup phase
(and this will not change for a long time) i don´t see any bigger problems.
Germany has all the tanks and artillery, russia still had no capacities to produce them !!
The forces totals we posted a few turns ago showed very clear that i need the production
to egalize my disadvantage in forces i had since turn 1.
 
I had to replace VERY high losses, i fight with a non-experienced army while your is well equipped
and experienced. If this "production disadvantage" (which is normal and historical looking at the real
production numbers) is a problem yet i would like to know why the game lasted for 60 turns [;)]
 
So the russian point of view is that the russian production advantage is not really a advantage,
it just allowed the russians to rebuild their forces and keep defending.
 
in 1942 it´s enough time to kick either Murmansk or Baku out of my production chain and this would bring MY forces
in real trouble.
 
PS. The calculation would be much more realistic if it also contains the destroyed enemy power points.
This would show what a hard time the russians have to rebuild their forces which were nearly completely destroyed in
the first turns and same time fight and delay the mighty german army.
 
Maybe i´ll do this later.

[TheArchduke]

Another support post by me for a great AAR if you guys don´t mind. Not engaging the Red Army during the winter is one thing, but giving up Kharkov? I would have tried to defend it, perhaps in vain. But seeing as the game goes on till 44 (Which I find great and don´t you guys dare to uncover too early who won..) it might have been the best move.

Perhaps I am too panicy as the Wehrmacht but when I see such a production advantage I couldn´t rest or give up production.

In any case, I hope the story goes on and I can match with seille again or george in the future on this map. Seems like I have still much to learn.

[george1972]

ORIGINAL: seille
With your calculated LL bonus you´re wrong, George.
It is not 25% it is 25k production points. Like a 4th major center.

Means i have 120.000 PP vs 85.000 you have actually.

Okay, you seem to be correct in this. I opened up turn 12 and turn 50 and indeed, the bonus numbers differ. You cannot really produce anything in Murmansk, but the production from there is added to your other centers by giving those a production bonus. Of course, this makes the numbers only (a little) worse from my point of view, not better [:)]

As for the experience difference: this is true. The German army starts out with high experience and because it is involved in constant fighting, can maintain this experience as well, for a while at least. Especially tank units, if they keep on surviving, can reach very high experience levels. But the experienced German infantry will eventually fall and be replaced by new recruits, just as the Russian Army grunts. If I review my '43 units, most of them have an experience between 30 and 40. But in '42 my troops still have the edge as far as experience goes.

An overview of destroyed powerpoints would definitely be nice to see. Looking forward to it [8D]

[seille]

The pure losses for the first 12 turns.

Look at the loss ratio !
This is what i talked about. Even my russians would have twice the german production i would still have
a disadvantage. These numbers don´t lie.

Germany had tons of overproduction while russia did not have the power to even rebuild it´s army from summer 1941 [;)]
So as i said all other informations are nothing than german propaganda.

[seille]

calculated with 77k average german production which seems to be fair.
Used the production graph which is not very detailled [:(]
It should show details for each new point (month) when i go over with my mouse.
In case you read this Vic....
With a export function such a overview would need less than half the time [:)]

[seille]

ORIGINAL: TheArchduke

Another support post by me for a great AAR if you guys don´t mind. Not engaging the Red Army during the winter is one thing, but giving up Kharkov? I would have tried to defend it, perhaps in vain. But seeing as the game goes on till 44 (Which I find great and don´t you guys dare to uncover too early who won..) it might have been the best move.

Perhaps I am too panicy as the Wehrmacht but when I see such a production advantage I couldn´t rest or give up production.

In any case, I hope the story goes on and I can match with seille again or george in the future on this map. Seems like I have still much to learn.

George played very smart here overall. He avoided the high losses in winter.
Around Kharkov i was way too strong. My siberians would have kicked his ass when he tried to defend.
And he knew that. So moving back was a good tactic.
The future will show this [:D]

[Jeffrey H.]

ORIGINAL: TheArchduke

Another support post by me for a great AAR if you guys don´t mind. Not engaging the Red Army during the winter is one thing, but giving up Kharkov? I would have tried to defend it, perhaps in vain. But seeing as the game goes on till 44 (Which I find great and don´t you guys dare to uncover too early who won..) it might have been the best move.

Perhaps I am too panicy as the Wehrmacht but when I see such a production advantage I couldn´t rest or give up production.

In any case, I hope the story goes on and I can match with seille again or george in the future on this map. Seems like I have still much to learn.

To me, the interesting aspect of the game at this point is how the larger issue of allowing an almost completely intact Red Army exist through '41 and setting the stage for a '42 showdown. Attrition+Soviet buildup should work against the Germans and failing to reach a decisive conclusion in '41 seems like a doomed tactic. It will be interesting.

[Jeffrey H.]

ORIGINAL: seille

Yes, he moved it into position, sometimes direct into the frontline to let the artillery do their job and then he removed it
by strategic movement back into a safe position. Sometimes out of range for own artillery or planes and often hidden for my units
(too far away to identify).
He´s not the only player who is using this tactic. Sometimes i used it myself later in the game, but i don´t like that so much....
The artillery is very hard to catch this way.

Seems a little bit 'gamey' but I don't intend to slight George in any way of course. I think I agree with your sentiment.

[seille]

ORIGINAL: Jeffrey H.
To me, the interesting aspect of the game at this point is how the larger issue of allowing an almost completely intact Red Army exist through '41 and setting the stage for a '42 showdown. Attrition+Soviet buildup should work against the Germans and failing to reach a decisive conclusion in '41 seems like a doomed tactic. It will be interesting.

Lol, completely intact red army ?
Intact would mean i still have all the tanks i lost and a nice amount of guns, but i don´t have them.
I was far away from beeing happy with this very basic army. I had a lack of attack aircraft, artillery as well as tanks.
All i had was a nice amount of infantry without any serious support.

George did what was possible during 1941. I defended too well in the center and he made the strategic mistake not
to take Leningrad. He was focussed at Moscow instead of Leningrad. Imho a mistake.
So at the start of the winter he had no chance. Moving back was the only thing he could do.
Without that i would have crushed his lines in the north and the center and probably near Kharkov
and he knew that. In winter with bonus the russians can do terrible damage.
And i know what i´m talking about, i won many games playing russia in the first winter [;)]
George played very good overall and he played smart in the first winter (except the center plane thing...)
It was a very close game the whole time and no easy going for one of us. Exactly because of this we decided
to go for this AAR.

[tweber]

This is a really nice AAR.  Especially with the pictures.  I think the production ratios in favor of the Soviets may be a bit overstated since they do not get lend lease in the winter months and in 1942, lend lease does have some uboat losses.

[seille]

Ohh, i think you´re wrong here, Tom.
 
Murmansk allowed to deliver LL in winter. As far as i know the delivery of LL stuff never stopped
due to weather here.
And the LL is not limited for a special time. Starting from turn 5 the russian player get these help until the end.
 
Limited is the effect of subs against these convoy´s. Starting in turn 10 the sub attacks end in december 1942.
There is a 20% chance they sink 50% of the cargo in the turns between.
As far as i remember we wanted to simulate better protected cargo convoys this way.
 
Must be a other scenario where the LL stops during winter, here it´s definitely not the case.
 
Btw, the production is ok as it is Tom. My excel sheet shows this very clear.
The german player has no serious disadvantage. He can replace all losses, produce additional troops
and do some R&D with his production. The russian player is not back at his pre war strength after
12 turns of producing and fighting.
 

[Jay Doubleyou]

Really interesting AAR.
Interesting to see how your game develops and the discussions about production, tactics etc.
Keep up the good work!

One thing about your losses overview seille. The Russian losses are huges because they have a bigger army then the Germans at at the start of the scenario, but its destroyed for a large part in turn 1. So just showing the losses and the regular production does not complete the total picture. So to really compare strenght, losses and production you would need the total of powerpoints of both armies at the start of the scenario.

Surely there is no need to increase Germany's power in this scenario, since in most games its an easy win for the Germans.

[george1972]

Nice, all these discussions [:)], the bottom line of the Soviet Winter Offensive is that you simply cannot attack as the Germans and can only defend in situations that nullify the disadvantage, such as fortifications/fortresses or with sufficient strength to withstand an attack. Especially where the Russians cannot use the concentric bonus, which is deadly even without a penalty.

Any attempt to "hold the line" would only reduce the size of the Wehrmacht at little cost to the Red Army, so that's why I retreated en masse during winter. Of course, not forcing a decision in the first year is a strategic problem, one which I didn't solve, mostly due to my own mistakes in the early turns, where I lacked a coherent plan and wasted the Finnish troops in a futile frontal attack on Leningrad.

Later on I chickened out before Seille did in the battle of Smolensk. I don't know if I could have won it, but at least the amount of reinforcements sent to the Southern fronts would have been heavily reduced if Seille was forced to sustain his Smolensk front in the face of high losses. I saw too many ghosts on the map that weren't there... This is all to Seille's credit. If he had started to withdraw, my mood would have been very different and I might have overrun him then and there. His decision to stay put was the right one in this game.

Now on with the story, as we enter turn 13, February 17, 1942

I noticed the beating Seille gave my air force and the initial mood was pretty gloomy...

[george1972]

Nevertheless, on the ground the situation looked rather rosy. With the penalty gone, my units looked fresher than they ever did and under Marshal Mannerheim, the Finns took to the offensive with satisfying results.

[george1972]

The Romanians feel confident too, and start their own attacks. Unfortunately, I get carried away as the following results show:

[george1972]

The overview of the front shows my other attacks. The exact numbers are not that important. The most important thing is that my units are now strong again and able to pick a fight with any Russian opponent, just as long as the Russians don't gang up on them. [;)]

In the North the initiative has suddenly passed over to me, although AG North has not received any reinforcements for 3 turns in a row. The main difference is that I withdrew my air force from AG Center and deployed it to the North, where the tank-heavy but infantry-light units opposing AG North make good dive-bombing targets.

In the Center the situation is stationary. I have the artillery advantage, Seille has the air superiority.

AG South executes one minor counter-attack and keeps withdrawing to lure the Shock Armies further South. I still dream of some kind of massive encirclement battle in Kharkov as soon as the snow melts and slowly start motorizing some units for that purpose.

The Romanians however make a grave tactical error which will ruin this plan before I can even execute it...

[seille]

Turn 13- Russia

The winter is over and the germans restarted their attacks.
Because they evaded my winter attacks well they are yet stronger
than in 1941 and my armies felt this.
I still try some limited attacks, but at most places the germans are simply too strong.

Step by step the russian command realizes that any offensives in 1942 are only dreams
and we´ll be in full defense soon again.

My production:

[seille]

The pressure against our forces is high especially against my northern forces.
And it´s still winter. Don´t want to think about what can happen in summer
with german bonus....
Dvinsk is gone, they got a new bridgehead over the Dvina.

[seille]

The situation in the souith looks acually like a draw, but it isn´t really.
Why ? The germans can use planes and artillery. We havn´t both....
But these weapons are needed for effective attacks.
We try to pick up any opportunities for attacks.