Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

Since I am bored with nothing to do I decided to find all the information I could on what Dan has lost in terms of AP/AK.  Cuttlefish got me to think so I reviewed my typed notes.  I have detailed notes on class breakdown starting in November 1942.  The year pervious to that I have no real clue as to what Dan's losses were but they were terrible.
 
My notes state that from November 1942 to February 1, 1944, Dan has lost 62 AP and 377 AK.  I would hazard a guess of at least 20 AP and 100 AK sunk in the year of action prior to these notes.  The Allies have lost 1,103 vessels to date in the war.  Realistically Dan has lost at least 80 AP and nearly 500 AK to all causes.  If anything this total is probably understated...
 
Anyone know what that means for the Allied player at this stage in the war?
 

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

...

Anyone know what that means for the Allied player at this stage in the war?

Less micromanagement? [:D]

Seriously I have no glue. If you wanted and if it is allowed by your house rules and comrady you could find it out with WitP Tracker for instance.

[John 3rd]

I don't think that I should ask Dan.  Might make him even more paranoid then he is!
 
Are their any Allied Fan Boys out there who would have a clue as to an Allied Ballpark figure for AKs/APs for this point in the war?
 

[n01487477]

John,
"if" you are using the latest Tracker version, it should give you a break down of what has been sunk (excluding FOW) ... Tracker will not and should not tell you how many ships he has of each Class... only your opponenet can tell you this exactly...

Michael is probably gearing up for Sunday Football and is incommunicado ... but he has the ability to show this for your game... (below is NOT)

Can I help you set this up and get you using it sometime? [;)] There is a new version of Tracker coming out shortly, I hope ... it has some interesting new features.

[John 3rd]

COOL!  I tried installing it earlier and couldn't get it to run.  How long to your new version?  When it comes out perhaps you could hold my hand and we get it done?
 
Michael learned the hard way (1 hour on the phone) how computer illiterate I am!  [:'(][X(][:'(]

[ny59giants]

Here are the ships sunk as of 1/19/44.

John can always ask for help from me to install Tracker. I've tried to get him to do so for some time, but......

[n01487477]

Michael,
I thought you'd be stocking up on frozen pizza, pretzels & beer for your Sunday marathon. I notice I can't PM you any more as you have changed your settings.

So how about zipping the whole Tracker folder once you have set it up for John (the properties file), before you have loaded a turn. This way he should be able to just run it straight away ... just check his path to WITP.(and it shouldn't be a huge download)

Also get him to check the Java version ... if it doesn't work.
http://www.java.com/en/download/help/testvm.xml
Latest Java version
http://java.com/en/download/index.jsp

This is the simplest solution I can think of ...

John, you estimated pretty well. I would assume that Dan still has a large amount of AP's and I dare say quite a few AK's.. Love the 131 PT's to 1 ! Having better than parity in all major ship types are figures many JFB's would love at this stage of the game. Kudos.

[Mistmatz]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Here are the ships sunk as of 1/19/44.

John can always ask for help from me to install Tracker. I've tried to get him to do so for some time, but......

This is just about half of what John estimated in AK/AP losses. Is this data taken from the events (sinkings) and thus an addition of each turns losses or is it taken from the sunk ship list (less FoW)?
To me the latter option would make more sense as the first option would require reading in every turn. But then, this is something John could have checked in the WitP sunk ship list as well. Granted WitP tracker is easier to handle and generally a hell of a tool.

[n01487477]

original John: Realistically Dan has lost at least 80 AP and nearly 500 AK to all causes

I read this and thought they were John's totals for the full war (top post). And so I think the numbers are close... John what do you think ? And these Tracker numbers are somewhat out of date now ...

Mistmatz, you are correct - this is a read of the "total ships sunk" minus those still unaccounted due to FOW. So, "Yes" John could count all those ships in the game sunk display, and get the same result, but I wouldn't want to!

Cheers
Damian

[John 3rd]

Wow  I go to sleep and wake-up with 5 new posts on the Thread! 
 
Those numbers are pretty darned close to what I was guessing at.  Keeping in mind that the vast majority of my losses have only come in the six months and one can see why Dan was depressed!  I am in pretty fair shape still with the Fleet.  DDs are where I am in terrible shape.
 
Single biggest column that got my attention on the list was the number of TK Dan has lost.  You can probably add 8 more with the next turn.
 
If Michael can do what you suggest with Tracker Damian then I will give it a try.  When I get back from seeing my Father I'll check the Java version out.
 
As always...thanks for the help!

[John 3rd]

Here are the most recent developments in the Sumatra area:

[John 3rd]

I posted my current notes regarding Sumatra and so I feel I should touch on the other active areas at the moment:
 
The Kuriles
I have lifted off the 2nd Amphib Brigade from Kunashiri and reinforced the island with 20,000 supply as well as a HQ and CD unit.  Dan tried to intervene here and a battle was fough between CL Yahgi and 6 DD versus an American CA, CL, CLAA, and 8 DD.  The Japanese get hit hard and love 5 DDs but mange to sink the CLAA and 2 DD.  I can ill-afford the losses but the STF does manage to keep the American TF off of the AP/AK there.  I'll take it as a victory.
 
The Solomons
The Americans are trying series of foolish 1-3 ship invasions of Japanese held islands.  I've moved the 4 CVE to Tulagi and plan to move them in and sink some ships and troops. 
 
Australia
The Aussies are advancing on Tennant Creek in overwelming numbers.  Last count showed a stack of nearly 40 [X(][X(] units moving up from Alice Springs.  I am pulling back as quickly as possible.  Engineers are digging in at Amboina, Lautem, and Koepang.
 
Dan's decision to pursue my troops northwards leaves Perth still producing resources and supply and I am milking it for all that is worth.
 
CBI
Somehow Dan takes Saigon from the Japanese.  I do not know how or why.  He only had 7 Chinese Corps attacking 2 1/2 Japanese Inf Div behind Fort-9 defenses.  Nevertheless, he takes the town on the 6th and CBI appears ready for complete collapse...
 
HOW did the British manage to do NOTHING here during the real war???
 
Convoy
A MASSIVE convoy leaves Brunei on February 3rd carrying 370,000 oil and 100,000 resources for the Home Islands.  Any SS that tries to get int he way will be creamed.

[John 3rd]

I just spent 30 minutes typing in my most recent update only to forget to copy it and LOSE the DAMNED thing when the Forum site timed out on me...
 
Lordy I wish there was some way to be warned by the system when the timeout was reached...
 
Back to RETYPING the whole thing...
 

[FeurerKrieg]

Yea, I type all my long posts in notepad first.

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
February 8-11, 1944
 
As I retype this I will try to keep my sanity and not condense my thinking and writing.  Here goes...
 
I feel like Apollo Creed right now as I duck and weave around Dan's punches at the Empire.  I've had some decent successes and failures in the 4 day set of turns.
 
North Pacific
Onneketon Jima--I staged the counterlanding here as I had planned with an Infantry Brigade.  For some reason my troops took horrific casualties on the actual landing.  I get 5,000 of the 8,000 troops turned into casaulties.  They were prepped at 55% and shouldn't have had that happen.  I evac the survivors back to Paramushiro Jima.
 
This landing provokes Dan into a STF sortie.  I had hoped he would and my LBA provides a decent accoutn of itself.  PJ launches 51 F, 19 DB, and 8 TB.  For the loss of 12 F, 4 DB and 1 TB I hit CA Wichita with a Torp and Bomb, and plaster a DD with the same.  Not too bad...
 
CV Katsuragi--This new flattop sinks a TK SE of the Kuriles on the 8th and then moves SE.  She encounters what appears to be a major American resupply effort on the 11th.  Six separate TF are spotted.  Unfortunately they are protected by 4 CVE.  In an afternoon exchange of strikes, the Japanese attack with 17 Zero and 32 Jills versus 32 Hellkitties.  I expect to lose all my planes; however, am surprised with only 4 Z and 6 J are shot down.  The rest do OK in that they hit 2 of 4 CVEs.  CVE White Plains takes 2 Torps and Kalinin Bay gets 1 TT (I think those are the correct names).  Now it is the Allies turn as 3 strikes of 4 Hellcats and 8 Avengers sweep in to attack.  My 7 Zeros manage to shot down 3 F6F and 3 Avengers but 4 Torps find their mark.  I scuttle the CV at the end of the turn. 
 
For her short life this CV did manage to sink 3 TK, damage 2 more, and hit a pair of CVEs.  Far better then what it did in real life which was NOTHING!  Still...
 
South Pacific
Shortlands--Dan continues with these little invasions and this time it costs him.  A TF of 4 large AK begin unloading what appears to be a Combat Command of an American Infantry Division.  My CVEs make their presense known in the region by sinking all of the AKs and cause over 1,500 casualties to the landing force!  I start loading 3 large Naval Guard units at Rabaul to finish off the Americans.
 
I spot Allied shipping off of Rarotonga and NW of Pago Pago on the 11th and move Betty and Frances to give them a rude reception.
 
Australia
Tennant Creek--The size of the Aussie force approaching this town is frightening.  I have decided to fight a delaying action with actually fighting.  When his troops enter the hex next to the town I will order a pullout and retreat to the next city up the road.  I'll do the same thing there and then fallback to Katherine.  When I leave Katherine and I will move directly to Darwin and evac my troops to Timor (Lautem and Koepang) and Amboina.  There are 2 1/2 Inf Div, 4 Art Reg, 1 Eng Reg, and 2 Aviation Reg.  I have AP/AK already heading for Darwin.
 
Additionally I have 3 Convoys hauling 20,000+ Suple to each of these three towns so they are well supplied for the coming attack.  I've had Engineers and Construction Battalions digging in at those locations since last November.
 
Kalgoorlie--Dan takes this town on the 10th.  Looks like te last Perth resource convoy is loading and will leave within a few days...
 
Sumatra
I continue to evac troops that have been cutoff by the Allied drive down the east coast.  I'm losing lots of AG but who cares.  They are getting the troops out andthat is all that matters.
 
My LBA continues to extract blood from Dan's AK/AP.  In this 4 day period I sink 1 DD, 3 AK, and 2 big AP (President-Class).
 
I am shuttling over 3 large, rested brigades from Singapore to Palembang.  These troops will--with other forces present--move and then attack the Allied lodgement at Padang.
 
My LBA launches an unauthorized strike at Sabang on the 10th.  A small strike froce of 4 Tony and 16 Frances attack a STF there guarded by 2 dozen Fighters.  Amazingly they fight their way through and make drops on BC Renown and BB Queen Elizabeth.  Two Torps smash into the old BBs side!  Pretty fair...
 
CBI
Hanoi--I said months ago that the war was lost in the CBI.  This now appear to be more certain.  My troops inside of Haiphong's defenses won't retreat to the hex SW of there where my soldiers from Hanoi sit.  If Dan can wipe these troops out then I will not be able to stop the advance into Indochina.
 
I predict by June 1, 1944, Dan will have me driven back into Malaya and my prime Oil Centers will be under massed 4EB attack.  It is done.
 
There will be no more troops sent there.  I have several Brigades due to arrive as reinforcements over the next month and they will help but that is all. 
 
 
 
I cannot believe the Allied troops strength in this theatre!  I've said ti before and I am sure I'll say it again but WHAT did the British actually DO with these troops doing the real war?  It is a scary thing watching all this and knowing that losing is only a matter of time...
 
That about covers the re-written report.  As you can see it is a case of Ducking and Weaving with good and bad results.
   

[castor troy]

Onnekotan Jima: you´ve landed during winter time and this is COLD ZONE, which means you take three times as many casualties during landing than if you would land in a non cold zone.

[John 3rd]

Arggg...I did not know that.  Consider it another lesson learned.  Thanks Castor!
 

[n01487477]

John,
I said something about both these issues back here ... [;)]
fb.asp?m=1897087.

I now have to find out if the zoning is the same for all maps

Damian

[John 3rd]

Just did a turn from Dan and spent a surprising amount of time working on it.  I am trying to figure out what Dan will do next in the Pacific.  It would be insanity for him to attack Hokkaido again due to the huge amount of ground strength I have there right now; however, his CVs and most of the American Fleet is there.  He might just be stubborn enough to try something more.
 
What concerns me is the large number of convoys are currently headed NE from Midway.  These are the steps I take:
1.  I decide to stand-down most of my bombers, dive bombers, and torpedo planes to rest and build up their morale prior to this large target arriving. 
2.  Additionally, I order a concentration of Japanese warships at Ominato.  We together there will be 2 BB, 1 CA, 3 CL, and 8-10 DD.  I may use those ships for an attempted surface intercept. 
3.  I've ordered about 8 SS to a patrol line SE of the Kuriles.  Half fan out with their Glens and the other half will set-up a line where I expect him to cross into the Kurile Line.
4.  I move several Daitai/Sentai from their training in China to Home Islands and upgrade their Fighters.  This is about 200 Fighters supplementing the 500 or so already present.
 
Reinforcements:
This month is a banner month for air and land reinforcements.  I gain several new Brigades and Aviation units in Japan as well as a nice number going into Malaya.  Nine air units just formed today and I moved them to China for training.
 
Transfers:
I reached enough Political Points to transfer the assignment of a China Infantry Division (62nd), 2 Construction Btn, and an AA unit to 4th Fleet.  Where to???  I have no idea where to place these additions. 
 
A.  My gut tells me that Okinawa is solid (AS 1,500 @ Naha and 1,100 @ Kadena--Forts 9). 
B.  Formosa could use some help though it is in decent shape.  I have about 1,800 AS spread around the island.  Would like to bump that to 2,500 or so.
C.  Philippines are weaker then I would like since I pulled Inf Div from there to reinforce Malaya and Hokkaido.
D.  The insanity could still occur and I see Hokkaido hit again...
 
Anybody got a crystal ball here????
 
Should note that the American STF that tried to hit Onnekotan Jima on the 11th and saw CA Wichita and a DD hit by planes from Paramushiro Jima got hit again as it retreated on the 12th.  Another pair of US DDs took bomb hits and CA Wichita was further damaged by 3 250 Kg bombs (total now 1 TT and 4 Bombs).  The ship is still 6 hexes from home port so I send an SS aong its line of retreat to try and get lucky...
  

[John 3rd]

You are right Damian. Thanks for the reminder! No more landings in COLD weather.

We still need to install Tracker. Let me get past my Sentencing Hearing next Thursday and we can do it in relative peace...

ORIGINAL: n01487477

John,
I said something about both these issues back here ... [;)]
fb.asp?m=1897087.

I now have to find out if the zoning is the same for all maps

Damian