Second Round

[herwin]

Apr 30, 1942
CVTF strikes on Colombo and Trincomalee
Deliberate attack on Manila, 1144-2302, fort 0, converts to 544-8581
Deliberate attack on Chengchow, 1826-5253, fort 2, converts to 185-5915
Wuchow smothered by LBA

May 1, 1942
Deliberate attack on Singapore, 1431-1596, fort 7, converts to 932-5339
Allied shock counterattack at Chengchow, 5143-1337, fort 2, converts to 692-389

May 2, 1942
Port Blair smothered by CVTFs
Deliberate attack on Bataan captures it.

May 3, 1942
Manila and Port Blair smothered

May 4, 1942
Wenchow smothered

May 5, 1942
nil

May 6, 1942
Manila and Akyab smothered.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: herwin

Apr 30, 1942
CVTF strikes on Colombo and Trincomalee

Net anything interesting?

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: herwin

Apr 30, 1942
CVTF strikes on Colombo and Trincomalee

Net anything interesting?

A merchant at each port was hit. The heavy SAG and CVTF in Colombo were ignored. Don't ask me why.

[herwin]

May 7, 1942
USN CVTF detected near Port Moresby.
Deliberate attack on Manila 2279-2387 fort 0 converts to 668-9257
Deliberate attack on Chengchow 1466-3944 fort 2 converts to 299-1783

May 8, 1942
Four CW merchants sunk by carrier aircraft off Ceylon
Allied shock attack at Chengchow converts to 4-1

May 9, 1942
Allied CVTF smothers Kokoda from just off Port Moresby. Japanese scouts spotted in the hills near Port Moresby.
Deliberate attack on Singapore 1448-1610 fort 6 converts to 982-2670
Rabaul aerial torpedo workshop goes operational.

[herwin]

May 10, 1942
The IJN opened their torpedo workshop in Rabaul with a bang. Betties hit New Caledonia and Port Moresby. The Aquitania took three torpedos at Port Moresby and sank. The CVTF lurking off the south coast of New Guinea was spotted, but the strike missed. <damn!>

Manila smothered. Maasin captured. The deliberate attack at Palembang was another story. 64-45, fort 3, converted to 18-769.

[String]

Ouch. IIRC the Aquitania could carry almost a full brigade, or even more, depending on the amount of heavy equipment.

[herwin]

May 11-12, 1942

The May 10 turn triggered the sync bug. Interestingly, the save file caused WiTPTracker to break, suggesting that the sync bug may be associated with a malformed save file.

May 11, 1942
Catanduanes surrenders.
Manila and Port Blair smothered.
Deliberate attack on Manila. 2214-2396, fort 0, converts to 874-7857

May 12, 1942
Nanchang smothered.
Quiet day.

The front line runs south of Mandalay in Burma. Singapore, Manila, and Palembang are holding out. Java has not been invaded. Japanese scouts have been observed outside Port Moresby.

[herwin]

State of play:
1. Singapore holding out
2. Manila holding out
3. Japan holds southern half of Burma
4. Japan holds most of Borneo, Celebes, Amboina, New Guinea.
5. Japanese fast forces returning from a sweep in the Indian Ocean
6. Japanese battleforce based in Rabaul

After the torpedo workshop opened in Rabaul, the USN CVTFs quickly got out of range. To lure them back, the IJN sent the battleforce to bombard Port Moresby. That worked, except that the torpedo bombers in Rabaul concentrated on bombing Port Moresby (secondary mission) rather than hitting the USN CVTFs.

May 13, 1942
Medan smothered

May 14, 1942
Manila and Sawahloento smothered
Deliberate assault on Singapore. 1429-1556 fort 7 converted to 552-2807

May 15, 1942
Palembang smothered
Deliberate assault on Manila 2139-2447 fort 0 converted to 1028-8613

May 16, 1942
Manila smothered.
Air attack from Batavia against IJN fast forces returning to Saigon

May 17, 1942
Manila smothered
IJN battleforce spotted near Port Moresby and attacked by USN CVTFs. Counterattack by a few Betties.

May 18, 1942
IJN battleforce spotted returning to Rabaul and attacked by USN CVTFs. Counterattack by a few Betties
Deliberate assault on Singapore. 1287-1481 fort 7 converted to 1376-2635

[herwin]

May 19, 1942
Manila smothered.
Deliberate attack on Manila 2096-2458 fort 0 converts to 1412-7893

May 20, 1942
Wau surrenders
Manila smothered
AVG runs into a Tony group
Deliberate attack on Palembang 57-46 fort 3 converts to 6-676 (I think a lot of the 676 is a supply sink)

May 21, 1942
Joure surrenders to the Allies

May 22, 1942
Nanchang smothered.
Zamboanga captured.

[herwin]

May 23, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Manila

May 24, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Manila
Deliberate assault on Manila: 2000-2481, fort 0 converts to 678-11397 (that is, a base 2000-2481 attack becomes a 678-11397 attack)

May 25, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Manila, Wenchow, and Pucheng

May 26, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Singapore and Wenchow

May 27, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Singapore

May 28, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Manila

May 29, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Manila
Deliberate assault on Manila: 2007-2478, fort 0 converts to 705-9709

May 30, 1942
Japanese troops enter Wucheng and Wuchow
Deliberate assault on Singapore: 1433-1454, fort 7 converts to 882-2192
Singapore runs out of supplies

May 31, 1942
Merchant cruiser Kanimbla attempts to interfere with transport (CVE) TF at Muntok and is sunk
Chinese deliberate assault on Wuchow force: 526-140 fort 0 converts to 549-9.

June 1, 1942
Palu captured.

June 2, 1942
Waihai captured.

June 3, 1942
Heavy air attacks on Manila
Batavia launched two air strikes against transport (CVE) TF at Muntok. No hits
Deliberate assault on Manila: 1959-2502 fort 0 converts to 794-9749
Japanese troops enter Nanching

June 4, 1942
AVG attacks an Oscar base at Magwe. 6 of 21 AVG fighters lost; no Oscars lost.
Japanese deliberate assault on Wuchang by an army: 2120-3675 fort 2 converts to 11-5467
Japanese deliberate assault on Singapore by a fully prepared and supplied reinforced corps, Singapore has no supplies: 1391-1354 fort 7 converts to 1146-1729

[herwin]

June 5, 1942
Lost another sub. At this rate, I won't have any by Dec 42
Makale and Parepare captured.

June 6, 1942
Deliberate assault on Akyab is repulsed.
Pulling troops out of Singapore for Johore, Manila for Lucena (mistake, later marched to Angeles), and Wuchang for Hanyang

June 7, 1942
Air attacks on Manila

June 8, 1942
Fakfuk captured.

June 9-10, 1942
Air attacks

June 11, 1942
San Jose Buenavista and Mindoro captured.

June 12, 1942
A good day for Japanese fighters. 71 AVG Tomahawks raid Magwe, opposed by 25 Oscars. Seven Oscars and 15 Tomahawks shot down. Similar activity near Sumatra.

[herwin]

Other than LBA attacks on Manila, and an Allied SAG hitting an IJN transport convoy at Muntok on the 21st, nil.

The Japanese side hunkers down to rebuild its units and prepare for the Final Offensive.

[herwin]

Both sides regrouping. A couple more IJN subs were lost in intel collection missions. Allied SAG hits Muntok on 24 June when a small transport TF was unloading. Port Moresby and Manila targets of air operations. A few IJN carriers spotted operating off eastern New Guinea.

[herwin]

Generally quiet as the Japanese regroup.

July 3--RN SAG bombards Muntok.
July 4--Deliberate attack on Manila, 2488-2591 adjusts to 2571-9733.
July 5--RN SAG bombards Muntok.
July 6--Deliberate attack on Palembang, 244-47, fort 3, adjusts to 136-649.
July 9--Search aircraft bombs and sinks RO-62.
July 11--Deliberate attack on Palembang, 252-42, fort 3, adjusts to 46-586.
July 13--Deliberate attack on Manila, 2899-2578 adjusts to 2795-5889
July 16--Thai-escorted convoy runs into friendly minefield at Muntok, clearing it and losing two DDs.
July 16--Shock attack on Singapore, 1677-1164, fort 6, adjusts to 725-539. No reduction in fortification level.

[herwin]

July 17, 1942

IJN CVTFs smother a socked-in airfield with massive airstrikes.
Shock attack on Manila (supply-less) 2649-2521 fort 0 adjusts to 3469-5041
Deliberate attack on Palembang 243-41 fort reduced to 2 adjusts to 79-583
Shock attack on Singapore (supply-less) 1388-1100 fort 6 adjusts to 0-802

July 18, 1942

RN SAG attacks Muntok. Smartly avoiding the protective minefield (355), the TF enters the harbour and shoots up the supply convoy.
Shock attack on Tobouli 153-1 fort 0 adjusts to 248-1389 as it comes up against an industry fortress.

July 19, 1942
IJN CVTF 5 pursuing the RN SAG at full speed gets hit by hundreds of aircraft from Batavia. For some reason, scheduled airstrikes never launch although the Dutch attacks ignored the Zuikaku. The TF limps off to Saigon.

Why do I feel like this game is taking place in Cloud-Cuckoo-Land?

[herwin]

July 20 1942
Shock attack on Singapore (unsupplied industry fortress)
1444-1056 reducing fort to 2 converts to 1719-377

July 21 1942
Shock attack on Manila (unsupplied industry fortress)
2253-2474 converts to 2600-5101

Deliberate attack on Palembang (supplied industry fortress)
293-34 reducing fort to 1 converts to 77-547

Shock attack on Singapore (unsupplied industry fortress)
1238-1048 reducing fort to 0 converts to 828-284

Shock attack on Toboali (industry fortress)
155-1 fort 0 converts to 46-1409

Deliberate attack on Akyab (industry fortress)
645-536 fort 3 converts to 195-1791

I expect I can capture Singapore by the beginning of August. I don't expect to ever capture the other positions. Manila is particularly hard to take. I currently have a reinforced area army in the city, and it's clear I need another nine divisions to get 1-1.

I think I must conclude that RHSAIO is the USN War Plan Orange fantasy scenario--the Philippines can hold out indefinitely until relieved. I'm sure MacArthur expected to do as well.

[herwin]

My opponent says he knew there was a problem with the RHS supply sink model when in December 1941 the Japanese invasion force in Malaya was unable to get 1-1 odds on the Kuala Lumpur industry fortress. He just removed the supply sinks at the positions currently holding me up to give my ground forces a chance, and we're sailing ahead looking for other bugs.

[herwin]

24 July 1942

Deliberate assault on Akyab. 541-528, fort 3, converts to 256-1357

25 July 1942

Shock attack on Manila (out of supply). 1976-2439, fort 0, converts to 1361-5769. City is untakeable. The current investing force is a reinforced area army (9 divisions).

27 July 1942

Shock attack on Singapore (out of supply). 1200-997, fort 1, converts to 1642-247. Surrenders.

[herwin]

28 July: Toboali captured by shock attack.

29 July: Manila shock attack. 1744-2406 fort 0 converts to 1299-5821. (The Philippines Army in Manila has no supply).

2 August: Palembang deliberate attack. 290-30 fort 1 converts to 237-37 and is captured. (My opponent had edited the save file to get rid of the industry fort which had previously caused a 293-34 fort 1 attack to convert to 77-547.)

Experience with el_cid's industry fort innovation is that it has dramatically non-linear effects. In addition, putting the whole of the Philippine Army in Manila seems to create an untakeable fortress, at least for RHS. This is because the urban terrain modifier of x4 takes an unsupplied force of 2400 and makes it effectively stronger than any Japanese land force that can be deployed to the Philippines. In both cases (and also in Singapore) the overwhelming supply drain of a besieged urban population is overlooked by the game.

[herwin]

Sumatra is being cleared. Not much else is happening.