George vs. Seille - A Russia 1941 AAR over 60 turns

[george1972]

I did not really think that was an option. If I had done that, I might have defeated the Baku front, perhaps even before it really became a threat, but the Stalingrad Front could have easily taken Stalingrad with its 1000 Inf and dozens of tanks that I killed off during the last 3-4 turns. AG South's left flank is overstretched as it is, so I did not dare stretch it further. If the Russians managed to take Stalingrad with the bulk of my forces heading for Baku, it would have been a mere 10 hexes to Rostov and the end of both AG South and the Romanians.

[TheArchduke]

Hmm, so you did not do that. Now I am thrilled how this goes on?

Have the Germans any chance to threaten the Soviets? Or is it a slow withdrawing game from now on? Because loosing Leningrad can not be good, as Helsinki is probably next. I imagined if you managed to secure Baku, things could draw out more.

[george1972]

Germany, Turn 34, April 13, 1943

As winter turns to spring the Russians armies take a pause from the fighting. The German soldier in the field welcomes the relief, but the Generals are worried. Their intelligence reports the growing strength of the Russian armies and how Germany can just afford to replace its losses in the field.

The strategic goals of last Summer, however close now, have not been attained thanks to a tenacious Soviet defense. Despite misgivings, the OKH drafts the orders for the coming summer: AG South will establish a defensive front on the Volga while operating aggressively towards the South. The Romanians are tasked with a quick break-through and occupation of Baku. All other fronts will give ground if needed to prevent casualties.

[george1972]

In the North, no opportunities present themselves, the withdrawal continues in good order. Next stop: Riga and the Dvina river bank.

In the Crimea, the going is slow, but the goal is more to drain the defender's strength and soften them up for the final push, planned to be executed soon after the fall of Baku. Some troops however doubt it will ever take place.

[george1972]

In the Central sectors, despite the strength of the SS, the endless rows of Russian units defending the approaches to Smolensk are a bit discouraging.

[george1972]

In the South around Stalingrad the initiative passes now to the Russians. Despite German industry's best effort, the Russian buildup has not only made good their losses but even created two new fronts that now are on par with their German counterparts in sheer manpower. My army still has better support and experience but each casualty saps away at that advantage.

The drive for Baku continues with brutal man-to-man fights as there is no room for creative maneuvering.

[seille]

russian turn 34.

[seille]

attacks in the north is slowed down.
The path to Helsinki is full of troops. We hammer them with artillery.
But it needs time.
And we want Helsinki first before we attack Riga. We need our complete forces
for this attack especially all the artillery.

[seille]

Not much new in the center.
But we started our air attacks to the SS units.
Small losses, but we reduced their mobility.

[seille]

Just a little overview of Kursk and Sevastopol area
since i didn´t show for some turns.
Won´t whow it often until serious action starts there....

[seille]

Baku and Stalingrad area.
While it was quiet near Stalingrad we did some very hard attacks to
the german spearheads in front of Baku.

The chance we waited for. A overstacked german hex and russian forces in
three neighbour hexes. I bet George will look better at the stack limit next time [:)]
Learned that lesson myself this hard way....

[TheArchduke]

Ouch..

This looks like George better switch to defensive gear now. Rather high losses, Baku is unreachable, Stalingrad flanked. After a possible conquest of Sevastopol, I would fall back on all fronts and prepare to hold out till 45.

[george1972]

I wanted to take these last two attacks on my troops to utter some criticism on AT's combat engine. Don't get me wrong: I really like the game and it incorporates a lot of features not seen in other games and does these very well, but I personally found this the most obvious example of a deficiency in the combat resolution system.

My forward units were attacked from 3 sides by an enemy inferior in numbers, troop experience, staff experience and mobility. The formulas clearly show what went wrong: the attacker got a 75% combat bonus due to concentric attacks and my forces got penalized for over-stacking. The result was a disastrous defeat.

But this result clearly goes against my "gut feeling". My troops outnumbered the attackers 3:1 in tanks and 2:1 in infantry. I had 1 motorized and 2 horse-drawn units, the attackers one mechanized and 2 on foot. Looking at historical evidence, my units should have been able to score a decisive defense success by employing a proper mobile defense in both cases shown in the screenshot. The defending force was sufficiently strong and mobile to do that. However, the combat routines don't seem to take those factors into account.

Overall I think the concentric bonuses are too high. They assume the attackers always manage to fully exploit their position. This however is not a done deal, history is rife with accounts of where coordinated attacks failed to materialize as planned due to poor communications, bad staff work or defensive enemy action (most notably, defensive artillery fire breaking up massed infantry attacks). I think staff experience/influence as well as relative mobility should be taken into account when determining the concentric combat modifier, and perhaps a big part of it should be randomized to reflect one sides good or bad luck in coordinating the attack and/or defense.

The stacking limit is another point that seems to be too arbitrary. It is true that when attacked from a single direction, the defender should not be able to bring his full force to bear on the enemy due to spatial constraints. However, when attacked from multiple directions, an over-stacked hex should be able to deal with those more easily. Since the hex contains more troops, it should be more capable of fighting on multiple fronts (hex-sides) simultaneously, negating the attackers concentric bonus to some degree.

Please note that I'm only talking about the simulation capabilities of AT. Seille beat my forces using the rules of the games and I was stupid to not pay more attention to them, so I'm the only one to blame for that. My little talk is more geared toward improving an already great wargame engine further.

[george1972]

Germany, Turn 34, May 3, 1943

After AG South, now the Romanians seem to have climaxed as their powerful spearheads were decimated in a counter-attack. The Generals in the Caucasus start looking over their shoulders to look out for suitable defensive positions.

[Widell]

ORIGINAL: george1972
Overall I think the concentric bonuses are too high. They assume the attackers always manage to fully exploit their position. This however is not a done deal, history is rife with accounts of where coordinated attacks failed to materialize as planned due to poor communications, bad staff work or defensive enemy action (most notably, defensive artillery fire breaking up massed infantry attacks). I think staff experience/influence as well as relative mobility should be taken into account when determining the concentric combat modifier, and perhaps a big part of it should be randomized to reflect one sides good or bad luck in coordinating the attack and/or defense.

The stacking limit is another point that seems to be too arbitrary. It is true that when attacked from a single direction, the defender should not be able to bring his full force to bear on the enemy due to spatial constraints. However, when attacked from multiple directions, an over-stacked hex should be able to deal with those more easily. Since the hex contains more troops, it should be more capable of fighting on multiple fronts (hex-sides) simultaneously, negating the attackers concentric bonus to some degree.

I tend to agree. Maybe this could be addressed by implementing two things:

• Some stats for SFTypes addition and contribution to concentric attack and defense.
• Taking experience of the units as well as distance, experience, level and number of staff in the commanding HQ's into account.

Ideally, these parameters should of course be possible to mod using the excellent editor. Finally, overstacking penalties could be dealt with using moddable parameters as well.

ORIGINAL: george1972
Please note that I'm only talking about the simulation capabilities of AT. Seille beat my forces using the rules of the games and I was stupid to not pay more attention to them, so I'm the only one to blame for that. My little talk is more geared toward improving an already great wargame engine further.

Fully agree!

[george1972]

The situation in the North is serious, the Finns are being overwhelmed but I cannot reinforce them strongly due to the setbacks in the South. In a last bid to stem the Russian advance, the Luftwaffe contingent in the North is sent to Helsinki. If they manage to score some lucky hits on the Russian artillery, I could perhaps hold Helsinki long enough for some more reinforcements to arrive.

[george1972]

In the center, the SS attack is bogging down due to lack of air support. In the Crimea the fighting continuous but progress is very slow.

[george1972]

In the South, things are starting to deteriorate. AG South is forced to withdraw and must now contend with two Soviet Fronts closing in on Stalingrad. The Romanians try to outflank the Russian defenses West of Baku, but all this takes time, time the Germans don't have...

[Grymme]

Its striking how similar (in a larger sense) this game is to the real war. As in the real war it seems that Georgemany have overextended themselves by trying to do to much at the same time (attacking Crimea, Baku, towards Voronez and from Stalingrad at the same time). From 20/20 hindsight i think he should have skipped the Voronez offensive and played more defensivly around Stalinggrad and instead taken out Crimea [which couldnt be reinforced] with the SS and gone for Baku on two fronts imediatly. Still a huge comeback for George after the 1942 winter.
 
As for Seille i think he performed very well in the beginning of the game. Then went for a very passive stance for a long time. Letting George into the game. I understand if he didnt want to advance out of Crimea. But it seems that George has been able to focus his forces much more, knowing or hoping (rightly so) that USSR forces wont advance until forces are overwhelming.
 
Btw. It doesnt say so in the AAR but any major strategic transfers made in the game. Did Seille at any time think about transferring forces from the north to the caucasus area for example?
 
I do think both of you probably play better than me. Still nice to talk strategy.

[TheArchduke]

Finally you do the right move and try to advance on two fronts on Baku.

This game stands and falls with your ability to defend Stalingrad, Riga and Helsinki till you manage to conquer Baku, if that is still possible.