Vettim89 vs Greasylake - Reversal of Fortunes

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

If you were close enough to land 1000 lb vs 500 lb bombs from your SBDs, he could out on the short end of the battle. Sara may survive, but be out of the war through most of '43. Do you have any ARs near by to help her out??

Send all your subs at max speed to Kwajalein area to see if you can get lucky.

Yes two AR's at Pago Pago 16 hexes away. Already had a sub line just north of Tarawa. These are recofiguring to block the path to Truk and Kwajalein. Yes, the SBD's were dropping 1000 lb bombs and got many secondary explosion, critical damage etc. One of the torpedoes that hit Yamato also got the "severe flooding" message. Next few days will reveal how bad. I suspect one or both of the IJN CV's may succomb. Problem is that means Tarawa is now jam packed full of IJN CV a/c. I will have to change plans once again. If that is true, I will move P-38's and 2E bombers into Nanumea to reduce this threat once the AB reaches Level 4. Once again my plan has not survived contact with the enemy. I guess I shouldn't complain if Larry loses the Soryu and/or Hiryu.

As of now the carrier count is 3 Japanese CV's (Sho, Zui, and Junyo), one CVL (Shoho) and two CVE's vs one CV (Lexington) and one CVE. Be nice to push that Japanese CV count to five. I also hope that Yamato will at least need some yard time

[FOW]

I reckon Hiryu is done for.
After just 3 attacks in one day I see that TF 1137 has used up 50% of it's AA ammo. I hope you have an AE in that Replen TF at Nanomea!

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: FOW

I reckon Hiryu is done for.
After just 3 attacks in one day I see that TF 1137 has used up 50% of it's AA ammo. I hope you have an AE in that Replen TF at Nanomea!

Yes - there are two fully loaded AE's in the Rep TF.

[ny59giants]

As of now the carrier count is 3 Japanese CV's (Sho, Zui, and Junyo), one CVL (Shoho) and two CVE's vs one CV (Lexington) and one CVE. Be nice to push that Japanese CV count to five.

Looks like the balance of power has shifted over to the Allies. Once you can get Hellcats on all of your CVs, you should be good to go for some time.

KUDOS!!

[vettim89]

13 February 1943

I should have just accepted a strong victory and pulled back. Just kept with the original plan. Larry had another CVTF in the area with Hiyo, Kaga, and Ryuho. My CV's ran afoul of this force and are now hurting. I hit all three Japanese CV/CVL's but no significant damage done. Sara was caught by Betty's and Nells out of Tarawa and is sunk. Now I have to hope to save Yorktown from a similar fate. I sortied the CVE's from Nanumea at max speed to try to catch up to her to provide air cover. Next few days will be critical for the war effort. If I can save all three US CV's I will be okay. If not, I will have to completely change my thinking around. I will be forced to change focus to the Solomons where I can cover my advances with LBA. This battle started out being my Midway but ended up being my Eastern Solomons. So many would have/should have/could have's going through my mind. I should have pulled back and rebuilt my carrier air groups. I should have diverted Sara/Yorktown towards Nanumea where I could have covered them with LRCAP. I could have pushed the whole operation back a few weeks where I would have had more F6F's on board. Reallly mad at myself now. Only consolation is that Sara II is less than two years away.

Elsewhere, the hug supply TF is near Ramree Island. From this point on Larry will know that it is not just another supply run into Ramree. Heading to Moulmein with 100k of supply.

[Capt. Harlock]

What a fight!! I have to wonder just how badly Yamato is doing . . .[:D]

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

What a fight!! I have to wonder just how badly Yamato is doing . . .[:D]

Well she has moved only one hex. That give you an idea.

[Commander Stormwolf]

Always better to win a small pot than to lose a large one

Much of the reason why probably I will be sitting for the next year doing nothing
after sinking 3 IJN CVs and BB Hiei at my battle of Midway for no losses (other than CA Indianapolis slightly damaged), despite being tempted to attack the Marshall Islands
(full siege of Kwajalein prepared for last 3 months) in Operation Alamo.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

Always better to win a small pot than to lose a large one

Much of the reason why probably I will be sitting for the next year doing nothing
after sinking 3 IJN CVs and BB Hiei at my battle of Midway for no losses (other than CA Indianapolis slightly damaged), despite being tempted to attack the Marshall Islands
(full siege of Kwajalein prepared for last 3 months) in Operation Alamo.

While that may be true, if I am able to save my CV's I will be in very good shape. With Junyo sunk, Soryu and Hiryu in extremis and hits on Hiyo, Kaga, and Ryuho, that leaves only a few CVL's as undamaged (CV Akagi is at Singapore repeairing damage suffered off Port Blair). Worse case scenario is I have Essex and Independence available now plus an additional CVL every 45 days. I also have two more CV's coming in the next 8 months. Plus a bunch of CVE's are on the way. All this really does is slow down any hopes for a quick cross ocean run at say the Marianis or Marcus Island. My plans for the next few months have always been for the Gilberts and Marshalls anyway. I will just need to be a bit more plodding. I have sunk Kongo in the last week and may also get Yamato. The Japanese are out of the offensive operations business for a long time now no matter the final outcome of this battle. Keep in mind also that once my CV's make port, I merely click on the little "get new aircraft/get new pilot " buttons and I'm good to go. Larry has an empty Navy pilot pool and his airframe losses cannot be made up for a while. I have no intention of giving up the initiative now that I have it.

Also, enormous pressure is being applied in SE Asia. Once Rangoon falls, I will use 4E's to "Crunch to Crap" his resources and HI in Thailand and Indochina. WIth no worry about KB attacking, I can also use CVE's to cover my operations in the SRA. Even if I lose Yorktown, Enterprise and Hornet which is unlikely, I have managed to inhibit Larry's ability to influence my actiosn because he no longer has a FLeet in Being to threaten me.

[Commander Stormwolf]

Overall the battle is a favourable result,
it is preciesly by the lack of fleets in being that offensive operations are encouraged.
Of course this match is several months ahead of mine, the lack of replacements
being the biggest factors preventing any immediate offensives in Mid 1942.

From an objective standpoint, a much more aggressive approach was taken
as it seems that fewer planes were on CAP and more attack planes were sortied.
Thus it appears the operational objective was one of maximizing damage to the enemy
and self-preservation was secondary. With large numbers of replacements, this may have been the correct doctrine. Of course, large-scale penetrations are now more difficult
without total air supremacy to challenge land-based air attacks (a conclusion that was shared in your analyis).

The usual load-out for the fleet under my command is a minimum of sixty fighters per carrier, and possibly more if fighting against heavy LBA concentrations. The shortcomings present are the lack of immediate offensive capability (as demonstrated by the escape of Akagi in my Midway). If bases have been established within the theater, enemy LBA flights can of course be prevented with sustained aerial bombardments, usually a plausible outcome as reciprocation by the enemy is impossible.

Usually after a large battle, the perception of innitiative is an illusory one, being the spontanous psychological outcome (the difference between position and change thereof being the mainstay of the Heizenberg Principle). Similary the historic position of the IJN was a formidable one in May 1942, however the change thereof was poor as the Allied Industry was mobilized. In reality the offensive potential for the next 4-6 months is perhaps 60-40 in the allied favour until the carriers are repaired and new units are available.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

Overall the battle is a favourable result,
it is preciesly by the lack of fleets in being that offensive operations are encouraged.
Of course this match is several months ahead of mine, the lack of replacements
being the biggest factors preventing any immediate offensives in Mid 1942.

From an objective standpoint, a much more aggressive approach was taken
as it seems that fewer planes were on CAP and more attack planes were sortied.
Thus it appears the operational objective was one of maximizing damage to the enemy
and self-preservation was secondary. With large numbers of replacements, this may have been the correct doctrine. Of course, large-scale penetrations are now more difficult
without total air supremacy to challenge land-based air attacks (a conclusion that was shared in your analyis).

The usual load-out for the fleet under my command is a minimum of sixty fighters per carrier, and possibly more if fighting against heavy LBA concentrations. The shortcomings present are the lack of immediate offensive capability (as demonstrated by the escape of Akagi in my Midway). If bases have been established within the theater, enemy LBA flights can of course be prevented with sustained aerial bombardments, usually a plausible outcome as reciprocation by the enemy is impossible.

Usually after a large battle, the perception of innitiative is an illusory one, being the spontanous psychological outcome (the difference between position and change thereof being the mainstay of the Heizenberg Principle). Similary the historic position of the IJN was a formidable one in May 1942, however the change thereof was poor as the Allied Industry was mobilized. In reality the offensive potential for the next 4-6 months is perhaps 60-40 in the allied favour until the carriers are repaired and new units are available.

Point well made but this is 1943 not 1942. The differences now are based more on tangible things like airframe production rate, supply production and the ability to deliver it, and equaling/exceeding airframe and aircrew quality. Larry has a far flung empire to protect and will have to make decisions as to where he can or will fight. Being the aggrressor now, I can choose which avenues I will persue. The loss of his mobile air cover prohibits the one thing I need to guard against which is the Pacific Version of the Adennes Offensive: him throwing his remaining strength at a weak point while I am occupied elsewhere. As long as I keep up a healthy LBA presence where ever I am basing my units, I can be relatively assured he cannot pull an "end around" on me. In truth I am in about the same position as the Allies were at this point - only one operational carrier. However, Larry is in a worse position than RL Japanese as he has spent his Naval pilot pool in Burma where he is losing dreadfully. Now he can't even pull off an Operatio I-Go. As to altering carrier air wings, I have a philosophical objection to it. I will not do it. I beleive in following the RL model.

My error was not in execution but in not seeing all the forces in play. Had the second CV group not been present, I would be talking about the sinking of Soryu, Hiryu and possibly Yamato. Yes I regret my aggression but I may end up coming out far better than I would have by being conservative. Time will tell

[Nomad]

One thing I try to keep firmly in mind is that even with the USN victory at Midway, it wasn't until November 1943 that they hit Tarawa and started the island hopping campaign. They needed those CVs, aircraft, and support/surface combat ships that were being built. Even if you sink most of KB, you still have to deal with some very strong LBA and you need lots of CVs and CVEs to try and protect everything. I always tend to think of the Solomons and NG as being a LBA area, not really that suitable for CVs.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Nomad

One thing I try to keep firmly in mind is that even with the USN victory at Midway, it wasn't until November 1943 that they hit Tarawa and started the island hopping campaign. They needed those CVs, aircraft, and support/surface combat ships that were being built. Even if you sink most of KB, you still have to deal with some very strong LBA and you need lots of CVs and CVEs to try and protect everything. I always tend to think of the Solomons and NG as being a LBA area, not really that suitable for CVs.

True but factors were in play that are not in here. The USN was in the fight of its life in the Solomons from August 1942 until November 1942. The US lost 2 CV's and had two more damaged during that four month period. The Japanese lost only one CVL. So between May and November 1942 the US lost Lexington, Yorktown, Hornet, and Wasp while the Japanese lost Shoho, Akagi, Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu and Ryuho. What really mattered was the loss of aircrew by the Japanese more than the hulls. THe US then occupied itself with moving up the Solomons chain for all of 1943. So perhaps I am ambitious here but I view the situation as a differnent path to victory. Looking back, perhaps I should have developed some of teh other bases near Nanumea to at least give me a safe haven for damaged ships. Time will tell.

[vettim89]

14 February 1943

Air action has Betty's/Nells going after Yorktown. Fortunately the CVE's made the rendevous overnight. No hits on Yorktown. The shattered Japanese airgroups launch from Tarawa and hit Hornet again. I considered scuttling her but thought I would let one more turn go. I may regret this. Lets see what a day brings.

On the good news front Soryu, Hiryu and Yamoto all sink. At least one CV is limping towards Kwajalein. My subs did not attack but I am ruiing after whoever this is. So assuming Hornet is lost it is a 3 for 2 battle. Yamato is a bonus

A SCTF ran into Rangoon and bombarded there. A/C are set to Naval attack to try to get some hits as this force retires south. My TF with supply is 5 hexes away from Moulmein. Two more days.

First strike at Lautem is a mixed success. Moving in 2 more P-38 squadrons to fight off the Tony's and Tojos based there

[vettim89]

15 February 1943

I think Yorktown is going to be okay. Japanese LBA is concentrating on Hornet right now. No further damage but she is only going 8 kts/h. She will bewithin LBA LRCAP range of Nanumea tomorrow. I likely will still lose this ship but if I can use her as a distraction to get Enterprise and Yorktown home, I will be happy. Yorktown will move out of range of Tarawa based A6M's this next turn. Hopefully the FM-2's can hold off the Betty's and Nell's unescorted. Independence departed Panama City for Pago Pago. Nanumea's Port level is 44% to 3. With all the Seabees ther now, I hope to see it reach that level whn and if Hornet makes it. Plenty ov AV support there so any attempt by the Japanese to go after Hornet in Port will have to fight through the F4U's .

My supply TF is two hexes out of Moulmein. I expect IJN SCTF interference soon. I made the decision to sacrifice some AK's in order to get as much supply ashore as possible. My units at Rangoon need some supply like now.

[Capt. Harlock]

A SCTF ran into Rangoon and bombarded there. A/C are set to Naval attack to try to get some hits as this force retires south

Pardon me for the confusion -- did you capture Rangoon, or did the SCTF bombard your troops in the vicinity?

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

A SCTF ran into Rangoon and bombarded there. A/C are set to Naval attack to try to get some hits as this force retires south

Pardon me for the confusion -- did you capture Rangoon, or did the SCTF bombard your troops in the vicinity?

No I took Moulmein. The SCTF bombarded the troops I have moved in to take the base. Need to get supplies in before I start the actual attack. At present just doing air and ground bombardment. Could run my UK BB's in to give Larry a taste of his own medicine.

[vettim89]

16 February 1942

The Japanese LBA has shot its bolt. Now its just a metter of die rolls and time. F4U from Nanumea assisted in beating off the G3M Betty's from Tarawa. If the Hornet TF makes one more hex tomorrow, I will break off Enterprise and Essex and send them south. I moved an addition squadron of Corsairs into Nanumea to assist the LRCAP. I feel this is as good an option I can get. Nanumea is 56% to Level 3 Port. At present rate, it will be level 3 in four days which is the earliest a damaged Hornet could arrive. I think she is a goner but i am glad I tried to save her. I am a little concerned because Yorktowns float damage spiked over the last turn. Just when I stopped worry about her this happens. Four days out of Samoa - hang in there baby!

A SCTF runs into Moulmein and mauls my transport convoy. I was expecting this but Larry payed a price. I lost a CA and two CL's in exchange for three DD's. LBA then put a torpedo and a few 1000 lb bombs into CL Tama - she may not make it home either and CL Kuma as well . Only two AK were hit. Unloading commencing. Another SCTF is spotted but I think I have a day before it will arrive. Larry's damaged ships will have to run a sub gauntlet to get home. Combat text:

Japanese Ships
BB Fuso, Shell hits 14
CL Abukuma, Shell hits 2, on fire
CL Kuma, Shell hits 9, on fire, heavy damage
CL Tama, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CL Tatsuta, Shell hits 1
DD Oyashio, Shell hits 23, and is sunk
DD Nowaki, Shell hits 1
DD Yamakaze
DD Hatsushima, Shell hits 32, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Hatsuyuki
DD Tsuga, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Kari

Allied Ships
CA Cornwall, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
CA Exeter, Shell hits 2
CA Frobisher, Shell hits 2
CL Emerald, Shell hits 8
CL Danae, Shell hits 31, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Birmingham, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Glasgow, Shell hits 1
DD Barker, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Stewart, Shell hits 12, on fire, heavy damage
DD Tjerk Hiddes, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Scout
DD Foxhound, Shell hits 1
DD Inconstant
DD Napier

Lautem is shut down with 98 airfield damage. No Japanese A/C there now. R&R for my Darwin's planes then we go after another base. A/C losses were 47 to 7 today in Allies favor

[vettim89]

17 February 1943

The carnage! The Humanity. I was wrong and Larry's SCTF made Moulmein in one turn. Another big battle and the Brits get mauled. Combat text:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Moulmein at 30,34

Japanese Ships
BB Hiei, Shell hits 5
CA Haguro, Shell hits 20, on fire
CA Suzuya, Shell hits 6
DD Makinami, Shell hits 1
DD Yukikaze
DD Hagikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Asanagi, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Karukaya, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Sagi, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CA Exeter, Shell hits 17, on fire, heavy damage
CA Frobisher, Shell hits 13, on fire, heavy damage
CL Emerald, Shell hits 10, on fire, heavy damage
CL Glasgow
DD Barker, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Scout, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Foxhound
DD Inconstant
DD Napier, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Exeter succombed to Betty attack during the day turn. Haguro was hit bit four bombs during the day also. CL Tama sunk also. Both sides limp towards port. But ....... supplies continue to be unloaded. I have to beleive Larry has shot his bolt.

Hornet is one hex from Nanumea at 88/93/2. She is detached and sent into the base. Port level is 69% to 3. Probably not going to make it but here's hoping. CV's Enterprise and Essex head south to Samoa. Enterprise will pump out and then head for the WC. CV' Yorktown is 6 hexes from Samoa and is at 42/63/0. She should make it. Air combat across the map was heavy. Allies come out on top 71 to 21 but 12 of the 21 were single a/c losses in 12 different types. Larry's were very heavy on fighters with 21 A6M3 and 20 Tojo alone.

[vettim89]

18 February 1943

Hornet makes Nanumea and promptly sinks. Oh, well. CV Enterprise and Esses head for Samoa after replinishing their AAA stores. Yorktown is one day out of Savali with 65 Flot damage. So the final tally is 3 Japanese CV's for 2 USN. Again, the pilot and airframes losses are where I really came out ahead. ALso, Yamato is not a bad pick up either. Larry's remaining CV's are heading to Japan for repair. In the next 176 days, I will receive 2 CV's and 7 CVL. Offensive ops are merely slowed right now.

CA Frobisher succombs to wounds at Moulmein and from air attack. Moulmein has 11k supply and growing. My first deliberate attack at Rangoon came off at 0 to 1 but lowered forts to 5. Just going into seige mode here now. The constant air and ground bombardment will whittle the IJA defenders down eventually.

Darwin's AB is now level 6. I moved in 2 more squadrons of B-17's to help reduce Japanese airbases in and around Timor.