Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

3/31/44 and 4/1/44
 
John was busy with real life matters so the game went on hold for three weeks, but we've resumed and I hope we can now proceed to the conclusion.
 
NoPac:  Things are going to get busy here.  An Allied amphibious TF began unloading at Umnak Island on the last day of March, but the troops are coming ashore slowly, so the first assault won't take place until April 2.  The Japs have not reacted to the invasion - John didn't transfer any aircraft to Umnak, Cold Bay, or his other bases in the Aleutians.  I expect Umnak to fall quickly and then the Allied troops there will begin prepping for other Jap-held bases in the Aleutians.  The Allies also formed a large invasion TF at Shikuka, protected by five CV TFs and a bombardment TF.  This group will head south and threaten Hokkaido or Kunashiri (the only Jap-held Kurile), but this is a mock force meant to create confusion.  4EB from Shikuka hit resources at Aomori on the 1st, scoring 56 hits.
 
CenPac:  4EB from Iwo Jima hit resources at Takamatsu on the 1st, scoring 9 hits.
 
SoPac/SWPac:  Quiet.
 
Australia:  The first Aussie troops have arrived at Darwin.  This base is now lightly held by the Japs and I expect the Allies to reclaim it on April 2.  Then the Aussies need to clean up the Jap-held bases to the south (Derby, Broome, etc.) and that will be it for the Australian campaign.
 
Sumatra/Malaya:  Having taken Georgetown, the British are not sure whether to move out and threaten another Jap base, or to dig in, consolidate, and improve the base.  The Brits have another army at Rangoon fully prepped for Victoria Point, so I may dig in at Georgetown and concentrate on Victoria Point (plus sending supplies and reinforcements to the beachhead at Malacca) in the near term.  A small Chinese army took Raeheng in Siam on April 1.  Most of the RN carriers are at Port Blair refueling.  BB Yamato and accompanying combat ships spotted on the 1st heading NE out of Singapore.  They could be on a refueling mission somewhere, or could be heading back towards Japan to lend a hand in the Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island areas, where John may be fearing an attack or may have some offensive plans of his own.  I hope the latter is true.  As for the former, the Allies don't have any plans to invade the Home Islands.  The only Allied invasion in the region anyt time soon will be Paramushiro Jima, and that shouldn't be at much risk since the Allies hold bases all around it and thus shouldn't face a massed and undetected attack by the Japanese fleet.
 
Vietnam:  The long Chinese sieges of Hanoi and Haiphong ended successfully and part of the Chinese army now holds Hue with a small base force hosting a squadron of Dutch PBMs.  Part of the Chinese army is garrisoning Hanoi and Haiphong.  The rest returned to southern China to recover from disruption and combat losses.  Once these units near full strength, they will return to Vietnam and the Chinese will move on Camranh Bay.
 
China:  Quiet here for a long, long time as both sides stripped units to fight elsewhere.
 
Points:  Japs 52,158; Allies 43,493.  The spread fell below 9,000 for the first time, mostly due to 350 strategic points scored in the two strikes of April 1.  The Allies now have 1,904 strategic points, a number that should grow much higher as the year goes on.

[heenanc]

This is my faviorite, so I hope the pace picks up now. Good luck

[Canoerebel]

4/2/44 to 4/4/44
 
The Allies are beginning to awaken, with stirrings and groanings, from their long sleep following the Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island campaign.

NoPac:  The mock invasion/carrier/bombardment force sallied forth from Shikuka and made for a point just off the east coast of Hokkaido.  To further the appearance of major operation, 4EB from Shikuka hit the airfield at Sapporo, destroying 20 aircraft on the ground.  A few kamikazes sortied againt the fleet, but didn't have a chance.  I hope I might goad John into a larger (and hopefully suicidal) air attack, but we'll see.  He may have this pegged as a feint.  To the east, the first Allied shock attack at Umnak Island failed to dislodge the defenders or weaken eight forts despite 4:1 odds.  The second attack (this on the 4th) came in at 9:1, dropped forts to zero, but failed to take the base.  I expect Umnak to fall tomorrow.  Many of the invasion ships are already on the way back to Kodiak Island to pick up troops for the next target.

CenPac:  Quiet here, although the Allies picked up a bit of SigInt that I've been awaiting for months.  The report indicates the Eniwetok garrison is 5,347 strong, the same number as when I got the last report many months ago.  A large number of troops fully prepped for Eniwetok have been waiting at Midway to get that SigInt report because I didn't want to hazard the invasion if John had reinforced the island.  I'm giving the invasion the green light.  Troops will begin embarking tomorrow - I have 150 transports at Midway, so there should be plenty to carry the force.  All the American fleet carriers are posted up north or at distant points, but I should have some 12-15 CVEs availalbe  to provide air cover.  This will be Operation Dead Reckoning.

SoPac/SwPac:  Quiet.

Australia:  The Allies reclaimed Darwin on April 4, but it will take a few days for the first base force to arrive.  John will certainly have to evaluate the threat of an amphibious invasion from this quarter, now, so I think he'll have to defend Timor, Flores, Ambon, etc.  But I don't have the ships available to embark in such a venture any time soon.

Sumatra/Malaya:  A Mini-KB is patrolling SE of Ceylon once again, which suits me as it means Jap carriers are off in a corner of the map where they don't pose a real threat and can't reach critical theater (NoPac and CenPac) without a long, long journey.  BB Yamato and friends returned to Singapore and bombarded Johore Bahru on the 2nd.  That beleagured Allied beachhead finally surrendered on the 3rd.  Lilys based in Sumatra hit a merchant TF heading for Port Blair, moderately damaging five AKs. 

Overall Situation:  The Allies had hoped to create so much noise and pressure in Sumatra and Malaya that it would siphon off Jap forces.  That has occurred while the Allies have also made some important gains there.  This is where the main battle of attrition is taking place now.  But the key to the war remains (in my opinion) Sikhalin Island and Iwo Jima.  With the ability to engage in strategic bombing from the three available airfields the Allies should be able to score points readily and finally pull even with the Japs sometime in the next few months.

[Canoerebel]

4/5/44 and 4/6/44
 
Definately some groanings over this period as the Allies take a few hits.
 
Sumatra/Malaya:  Having wiped out the Indian division at Johore Bahru, John is moving freed-up troops north to reinforce Malacca.  The Allies will eventually reinforce the beachhead there and will also continue beefing up the new base at Georgetown.  A base force just arrived at Georgetown, so the Allies moved in a squadron of Corsairs and one of Spitfires.  This will help defend against repeated raids by Jap LBA.  These raids have cost the Japs alot of downed aircraft, but they have also damaged a moderate number of transports (and sank one, AK Oklahoma).  On the 6th, a Jap torpedo plane put a TT into BC Renown doing light damage.  She'll repair to Sabang.  Bottom Line:  This area continues to be the scene of attrition, which is what the Allies want.  At the northern bottleneck of Malaya, more Allied troops are arriving in the disputed two hexes, so the Allies will soon try another attack.  RN bombers from Tavoy, Moulmein, and Rangoon are repeatedly hitting the Jap army in these two hexes.  There is alot of Jap shipping around Singapore and Saigon.  John may be up to something major, but I'm not sure what.
 
NoPac:  My diversionary bombardment run against Kunashiri didn't work out too well because I forgot to click off "escorts bombard."  As a result, the USN lost two DDs with three more damaged.  But John now knows BB New Jersey is in the area.  A handful of Jap merchant ships have been hit by Hellcats from Onnekotan Jima and Toyahara.  I think they were trying to flee for the Home Islands from Paramushiro.  In the Aleutians, a Canadian base force landed at Umnak Island.  The Allied troops there are now prepping for another Aleutian base while the invasion ships return to Kodiak to take on a load for yet another target.
 
CenPac:  The Operation Dead Reckoning troops are embarking on transports.  The invsion force will include 4th Marine, 77th Army Division, 2 RCT, 47th Combat Engineers, 2 artillery units, three HQ units, base forces, an EAB, and a Seabee unit.  Barring a catastrophe this should be overkill, but I want this base fully operational and able to withstand a determined Jap counterattack should one occur.
 
SoPac:  The Japs have some transports in the vicinity of Raratonga.  My defenses are slight, so John can take this outpost if he wants it.
 
SwPac:  Allied troops are in place and prepped to invade several Jap-held islands, but I'm waiting for ships to become available, and that won't happen for a long time.
 
Australia:  Same here.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

4/7/44
 
Malaya/Sumatra:  The attrition continues unabated and I got stung harder than I would've liked today.  A Jap CA/CL/DD force hit my remaining merchants at Georgetown sinking eight.  I had posted the RN combat group ENE of Sabang yesterday and figured that would keep the Japs away from the area, but I was wrong.  Jap LBA sortied against the RN carrier fleet north of Sabang and got bloodied.  The Japs lost 37 aicraft (14 George, 18 Kates and Jills, and 5 Tojos) while the RNAF didn't lose a plane.

Vietnam:  This area will be static for awhile as a host of Chinese units rest and recuperate in southern China in preparation for the next offensive (Camranh Bay) in a month or two.

China:  Quiet.

NoPac:  The American carriers will head back to Shikuka.  American troops prepped for Paramushiro are gathering at Shikuka and will begin boarding transports in a few days.  The Paramushiro-prepped troops at Kodiak began loading today.  D-Day for this operation is probably two weeks away.

CenPac:  Most of the Operation Dead Reckoning Troops, supplies, and cargo are now loaded.  I only have 11 CVEs present for escort (less than the 12-15 I had estimated a few days ago).  One of these CVEs is a replenishment ship loaded with Hellcats and Avengers.  So ten CVEs will carry a total compliment of about 180 Hellcats and 90 Avengers.

SoPac:  The Japs landed some troops at Raratonga late in the day but they went "poof" and disappeared.  Attrition I guess.  This landing is covered by a stout Mini-KB of 3 CV, 2 CVL and a CVE.  I hope they are still down there when the Dead Reckoning TFs sail past Wake and head toward Eniwetok.

Australia:  The Australian troops are gathering at Darwin and prepping for distant targets though, as explained previously, I don't have shipping to carry them anywhere.  Darwin is currently a level 5 airfield and can be built to 7 or 8, so it is big enough to base B-29s.  That means Soerabaja is within range, so within the month nearly every major Japanese port (Soerabaja, Batavia, Singapore, Saigon, Manila, China coast, and the Home Islands) will be within range of Allied 4EB.  I think at that point Truk and Rabaul will be the safest ports left to the Japs, and the Allies will eventually take bases within range of those ports.  

[Canoerebel]

4/8/44 to 4/10/44
 
This time it's the Allies doing the stirring and the Japs doing the groanings.
 
Sumatra/Malaya:  After weeks of pounding by medium and heavy bombers based at Tavoy, Moulmein, and Rangoon, the Jap troops blocking the neck of the Malay peninsula gave way under a 5:1 deliberate attack.  Even better, the defeated Japs retreated to Bangkok, leaving the road to Ban Don and the rest of the peninsula unguarded, at least at the moment.  With that hex solidly in Allied control now, the Allied bombers will divide their attention between an isolated Japanese army to the north and Jap forces at Ban Don and vicinity.  Three Allies units will move down the road toward Ban Don while the remainder remain across the river from Bangkok until I can determine whether there's a chance of successful counterattack.  But the gaping hole in the lines in northern Malaya, the Allied forces at Georgetown, and the beachhead at Malacca should pose some real challenges to John.  At the same time, the RN carriers and a combat TF are moving south as though threatening additional landings in the Malacca area.  They are in harm's way, but readily available LRCAP from Medan, Bankha, and Georgetown will double the fighter protection.  The Mini-KB recently detected SE of Ceylon has returned to southeastern Sumatra.  Summary:  this area should continue to worry John, thus drawing his attention and a strong commitment of Jap forces, and that's just what I want.
 
NoPac:  The Paramushiro-bound troops at Kodiak have already boarded transports and the ships are well SW of Kodiak now.  The contingent at Shikuka will begin boarding transports tomorrow (they are much closer to Paramushiro).  D-Day should definately occur in ten days to two weeks.  4EB from Shikuka hit Sapporo on the 9th, destroying 71 resources.
 
SoPac:  The Japs have committed a huge force to Raratonga, far out of proportion to it's worth (in my opinion).  The landing includes 22nd Division, three Naval Guards, an SNLF, and engineers.  The naval presence includes at least three CVLs, two CVs, two CVEs, and a CS.  John will easily overrun the defenses, but his forces are woefully out of position now. 
 
CenPac:   It seems like a propitious time to hit Eniwetok.  Not only did the Allies get that encouraging SigInt report that the defenses are only 5,400 strong, now Jap carriers are scattered to the four winds (several at Sumatra, the big force way down at Raratonga, and yet another force recently sighted by a sub in the middle of the South China Sea).  This gives me enough confidence to mount a major operation deep into enemy territory under cover of just CVEs.  But the target looks good for the plucking as Eniwetok is a bit isolated.  The only nearby Jap base is Ponape and it has a level three airfield.  The invasion force is already 300 miles south of Midway and I don't think it's been detected yet.  But it will pass Wake Island near to the east in just a few days.  What forces can John muster to oppose the invasion?  Also in CenPac, 4EB from Iwo Jima destroyed 30 resources at Sendai on the 8th.
 
USA: CV Franklin and CVL Bataan just arrived at San Francisco to much rejoicing and relief after a long, difficult journey.  These two carriers were the only two fleet carriers to suffer major damage in the Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island operation in late 1943.  The remained in port at Shikuka for months as there did not seem to be any safe way to get them out.  Finally, when the KB showed up at Sumatra, the two ships (and many other damaged ships) began the very long journey through the North Pacific for home.  Franklin reached San Fran with 62 Sys damage while Batann has 35. 
 
Australia:  Recon from Darwin has begun flights over Koepang and Lautem, and Liberator IIIs and B-24s hit the port at Koepang damaging two AKs.  I want to create some noise here to force John to defend the islands west and northwest of Australia.
 
Points:  The points gap dropped below 8,000 for the first time.  As of April 9, the Japs have 52,479 to 44,501 for the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

4/11/44 and 4/12/44
 
CenPac:  The Operation Dead Reckoning force continued on its lonely journey south from Midway, ending the 11th 480 miles ENE of Wake Island where it seemingly remained undetected.  The force continued south on the 12th, ending the day 360 miles ESE of Wake Island.  This time the Japs sighted the American ships and there were three sorties by Frances bombers in small numbers (17 shot down to no losses for the Americans).  But now John also knows the strength of my CAP (approximately 100 Hellcats and a dozen FM Wildcats).  I've issued orders for my ships to change course to a SW bearing that would take them by Wake some 180 to 240 miles from that island.  But I'm debating the wisdom of the entire operation (have you ever had that "buyer's remorse" feeling when a big operation moves into harm's way?).  Here's my quandary:
 
Does She or Doesn't She:  I am convinced I can win the game without undertaking any more hazardous operations.  IE, strategic bombing alone will sooner or later give the Allies a points lead, and I can sit back and only engage in safe operations like the invasion of Paramushiro Jima, which will take place inside Allied controlled territory under LBA CAP.  I don't  "need" to engage in a big operation in enemy waters giving that enemy the chance to score alot of points.  Is it worth it to invade Eniwetok?  I know the island is lightly held (per recent SigInt) and I think I've probably caught the Jap carriers far, far away, but my ships are lightly defended by CVEs, one CA, and a ton of DDs (yeah, I know how light those defenses are).  What if John commits a major surface force or has signficant carriers in the area?  And yet, seizing Eniwetok and its level four airfield quickly gives me a base in the heart of Japanese territory and will help me move on other important bases in CenPac, SoPac, and SWPac.  I'll see what happens tomorrow - my ships will be close to Wake and we'll see if the Japs put up stiffer resistance.  I think tomorrow is the "no turning back decision day." 
 
SoPac:  The Japs recaptured Raratonga, forcing the garrison of one tank unit and two small base forces to surrender.
 
Sumatra/Malaya:  The Brits pushed back the isolated Jap army that occupied one of the bottleneck hexes at the north end of the peninsula.  This frees up another infantry unit and four armor units to move south.  The Allies have three infantry units and another armor unit already moving down the good road toward Ban Don, which appears lightly held.  Further south, the RN carriers, combat TF, and supply ships took station a hex north of Malacca and remained there for two days under stout LRCAP to see if I could draw the Jap airforce into a Mariannas Turkey Shoot scenario.  The Japs refused to bite except for nine forlorn Jakes.  Tomorrow, the supply ships and combat TF will proceed to Malacca while the carriers remain a hex to the rear.  The bullk of the LRCAP will cover the carriers, but there is decent cover for the others.
 
NoPac:  The first B-29s arrived at Shikuka on the 12th.  The lucky unit receiving these planes is the 43rd Bomber Group which swapped out its B-17Es.  This group has 74 Experience and 99 Morale, so as soon as the aircraft are ready to fly the bombing of the Home Islands will reach a new level.  Transports at Shikuka are taking on several RCTs and an artillery unit in preparation for the invasion of Paramushiro.  The other troops (including a division and two more RCTs) are nearing Adak Island.  D-Day is perhaps seven days off.

[Q-Ball]

You're probably right you can "lay up" and win on points. Sounds like you'll keep pressing, but accumulating points is the cheap way out. If you make it past the auto-victory, you're going to win if you're playing the Allies.

[ny59giants]

From your other post, it seems that John has has most of his carriers and large capital ships off doing other things and/or still in the yards getting repaired. The one force that can come running is the one in the South Pacific. If he sets them for full speed, can they get there in time?? Can you send some of your CVs on their own high speed run and take a chance the John has acted aggressively to spring a trap on him??  He might think you are keeping some CVs back and the transports/CVEs are just bait. How much of this force can you afford to lose??

[vettim89]

Just to offer an opinion, I would pull back. If nothing else, you've thrown Jon a curveball and can make him react to a new threat even if it is spurious. Here is why I say call it off:

1. Even if you take the base quickly, you will still need to keep it supplied. The SLOC will be very tenuous unless you backfill and take out Wake. I am assuming John has built Kwajalein to at least a level 4 AB which means every convoy that comes in will be subject to Betty attack for several days. You could spend the rest of the war with a bunch of CVE's commited to convoy escort duty just to keep the base open

2. The base holds no strategic value to you. You are already well west of this island. Unless you are planning a major campaign to clear the Marshalls, why bother. Don't let it become your Pelilieu

3. You will feel really dumb if John musters some sort of quick response and you lose a bunch or CVE's,AP's, and/or LCU's over a base that is really not part of your master plan.

To offer an alternative, I would take out Marcus Island as it is much more of a threat to your SLOC to Iwo Jima.

[Canoerebel]

4/13/44
 
CenPac:  The Operation Dead Reckoning force continued moving SW ending the day just 240 miles ESE of Wake Island (900 miles SW of Midway and 780 miles NE of Eniwetok).  There were no sorties by Jap bombers.  I've decided to proceed for at least one more day.  Tomorrow the ships may close to within just 120 miles of Wake, but John can tell by their positioning that Wake isn't the target.  I don't think his carriers recently at Raratonga can make it here in time to participate before the Allies land at Eniwetok.  My primary concerns are LBA (Wake, Eniwetok, Ponape, and Kwajalein have fields within range, but two of those are pretty far off) and big combat ships since I don't have any with my force.  But I do think John will assume that my force does have capital ships and will therefore be reluctant to commit his unless he has carrier air or gets desperate. 
 
NoPac:  BB New Jersey with CA and CL escorts bombarded Paramushiro.  The eastern element of the invasion force is near Adak Island now.  The western element have finished loading and remain in port at Shikuka.  The new B-29 squadron at Shikuka now has 5 planes ready and 43 still in preparation.  It could be a week before this squadron is ready to fly.
 
Sumatra/Malaya:  The supply ships reached the beachhead at Malacca with one AK hitting a mine.  There was no opposition from Jap combat ships, but I unfortunately forgot to unclick the "do not unload" command (arg).  So my ships will remain there at least one more day.  I think there's a good chance John will send in his BBs from Singapore tonight.  To the north, the small Allied army (500 AV) is making good time down the neck of the Malay Peninsula toward Ban Don.  Can they reach and seize this key hex before John can reinforce?
 
Q-Ball and NYGiants:  I'm probably going to proceed with the invasion of Eniwetok.  I suspect I've caught John by surprise, although he may still be able to muster sufficient resources to hit my ships hard.  But if I do take Eniwetok and get the airfield up and running it will really jeapardize the entire Jap position in most of the eastern half of the Pacific, and that will be fun.

[Canoerebel]

This title is meant to mislead my opponent. The Allied force is heading for Eniwetok. According to SigInt, the Jap defenses of Eniwetok are just 5,500 strong. The Allied force is massive and should be able to quickly seize the island and airbase, at which point I can transfer P-38Js from Midway to bolster CAP. So, if I can take Eniwetok before the Japs can bring massive defensive forces to bear, the operation will succeed. My troops are 100% prepped for the island and there is no chance the Japs can retake once it falls to the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: vettim89

Just to offer an opinion, I would pull back. If nothing else, you've thrown Jon a curveball and can make him react to a new threat even if it is spurious. Here is why I say call it off:

1. Even if you take the base quickly, you will still need to keep it supplied. The SLOC will be very tenuous unless you backfill and take out Wake. I am assuming John has built Kwajalein to at least a level 4 AB which means every convoy that comes in will be subject to Betty attack for several days. You could spend the rest of the war with a bunch of CVE's commited to convoy escort duty just to keep the base open

2. The base holds no strategic value to you. You are already well west of this island. Unless you are planning a major campaign to clear the Marshalls, why bother. Don't let it become your Pelilieu

3. You will feel really dumb if John musters some sort of quick response and you lose a bunch or CVE's,AP's, and/or LCU's over a base that is really not part of your master plan.

To offer an alternative, I would take out Marcus Island as it is much more of a threat to your SLOC to Iwo Jima.

Vettim, you're right! I am gonna feel dumb if John clobbers me! But I'm proceeding with the invasion. If it succeeds, it will help me in this way. It isolates some very high value bases still held by the Japs (Fiji and Pago Pago) and also threatens Johns lines to Rabaul and Nomea. I plan to eventually take these bases and having a sizeable base right on John's line of supply will be a problem for him.

I do know this - in this game the Allies won't ever invade the Home Islands, Okinawa, Formosa, or the Philippines. Offensive activity from here on out will be restricted to CenPac, SoPac, New Guinea, and the DEI. The first three have some high value Jap bases that I want to reclaim, and the Eniwetok invasion gives me a big head start there. The DEI is intended to strike John in his resources area and also keep up the high rate of attrition between opponents in close proximity. Other than that, the Allies plan is to pound the home islands with heavy bombers based at Iwo and on Sikhalin Island.

[Canoerebel]

4/14/44
 
In my post for the 13th I mentioned that I thought there was a good chance John would send his BBs to Malacca overnight.  I was right, but I didn't foresee what was about to take place....
 
Sumatra/Malaya:  A strong combat TF anchored by BB Queen Elizabeth, a number of CAs, CLs, and DDs was guarding the convoy deliverying supplies to the beachhead at Malacca.  The Japs sent two combat TFs to contest the hex - the first led by BBs Ise and Hyuga and CA Chikuma, the second led by BB Yamato and CAs Takao and Maya.  You would think the Japs would have had the advantage, but both TFs had just a few DDs while the RN TF had many.  Here is what transpired in a momentous naval/air engagement:
 
Round One:  BB Ise and BB QE exchange shots with Ise suffering "severe engine damage" and "severe damage"  BB Hyuga takes a few rounds; two Allied DDs take torpedoes; one Jap DD suffers "heavy damage."
 
Round Two:  In comes BB Yamato and friends.  At first things seem to be going the Japs' way as several RN CAs and DDs take heavy damage, but then QE finds the range and absolutely pummels Yamato.  A long series of hits by 15" guns result in these reports of damage: severe engine, 2 x fires below deck, internal explosion, 3 x severe damage, and critical damage.  Then DD Penn puts a TT into Yamato.  CL Dauntless is clobbered an four DDs (including the "very veteran" USN DD Pope) are badly and perhaps mortally damged.
 
Round Three:  Hyuga and Ise return with CL Dauntless again getting clobbered and CLAA Capetown taking a TT; there are a series of minor strikes on most of the Japanese ships.
 
RN Avengers:  Yamato and Ise suffer enough damage that they can only pull back one hex leaving them exposed to air attack.  The RN carriers are posted just two hexes north of Malacca, and Avengers carrying torpedoes sortie, followed by bomb-equipped Avengers from Georgetown.  The first strike comes from the carriers and focuses on Yamato, scoring three torpedo strikes.  The next strikes by both sea and land-based Avengers score four torpedo hits and 8 500lb bomb hits against Ise.  To my surprise, Yamato is confirmed sunk, and I feel sure Ise is either mortally wounded or will be out of the war for a long time. 
 
Impact:  The Allied plan for Sumatra and Malaya for a war of attrition is working well.  This battle should be a crippling blow to the Japanese navy in this region and anywhere else the Allies have concentrations of battleships and cruisers (mainly NoPac at the moment, but eventually CenPac too).  John can still employ plenty of cruisers and destroyers, but the British can outgun the Japs in Malaya and the USN has vastly more power in NoPac.  This should allow the British to deliver men and supplies to both Georgetown and the beachhead at Malacca without facing too much theat from the sea.  The Japs have just three BBs left in the game - Hyuga, which is still serviceable, Ise, which should be crippled or mortally damaged, and Heie, which is probably still in port recovering from the damage she took during the Iwo Jima campaign and a bombing while she was in port in Japan.
 
Northern Malaya:  The advance Allied units are just three hexes from Ban Don.  It appears this base is occupied by only a base force, and John may have pulled out another unit.  If he doesn't defend Ban Don it will signify a major change in the Malaya campaign.
 
NoPac:  BB New Jersey and compliment bombarded Paramushiro again; this TF is now based at Onnekotan Jima, just one hex to the south, and will hit Paramushiro every night until D-Day.
 
B-29s: Four 48-plane B-29 squadrons just arrived at Karachi with experience levels ranging from 60 to 62.  Two of these squadrons went to Rangoon and the other two remained at Karachi for now.  They can make the leap all the way to Shikuka (that's a LONG way), so I'll send them there as soon as that airfield increases from level 8 to 9 in a week or so.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Vettim, you're right! I am gonna feel dumb if John clobbers me! But I'm proceeding with the invasion. If it succeeds, it will help me in this way. It isolates some very high value bases still held by the Japs (Fiji and Pago Pago) and also threatens Johns lines to Rabaul and Nomea. I plan to eventually take these bases and having a sizeable base right on John's line of supply will be a problem for him.

I do know this - in this game the Allies won't ever invade the Home Islands, Okinawa, Formosa, or the Philippines. Offensive activity from here on out will be restricted to CenPac, SoPac, New Guinea, and the DEI. The first three have some high value Jap bases that I want to reclaim, and the Eniwetok invasion gives me a big head start there. The DEI is intended to strike John in his resources area and also keep up the high rate of attrition between opponents in close proximity. Other than that, the Allies plan is to pound the home islands with heavy bombers based at Iwo and on Sikhalin Island.

Well fine then. I reserve the right to say I told you so if it blows up in your face like a McGiver Bomb and you have bits of foil and toilet bowl cleaner all over you

[Panther Bait]

I imagine that was one of those gut-wrenching replays to watch for John 3rd.  Excellent action by the RN!
 
Mike

[Cap Mandrake]

Wow...the QE pummeled Yamato....go figure.

[ny59giants]

With your good news here, I would go ahead with your invasion. I think John will be more cautious than normal as he will fear a second setback that will really put him on the defensive.

I would look at forming a few SCTF with 2 Cleveland Class CLs and 4 Fletcher Class DDs to go looking for trouble. His surface fleet seems to shrinking fast and this group can handle most of what they may come across.

[Heeward]

I think his invasion of Eniwetok his a good move, it will allow him use his US medium bombers to dominate the area - and he can still clear Marcus and Wake at his leisure. He can use his CVE as a local escort force. The risk is the IJN CV's show up to blockade, but then that pins them in place for the US navy to come in and engage them.
 

[Canoerebel]

4/15/44 and 4/16/44

CenPac:  I'm about to find out if the invasion of Eniwetok is a good idea.  The amphibous TFs with escorts continued their uneventful cruise through enemy waters on the 15th and 16th, finishing 240 miles north of Eniwetok.  John apparently stood down all bombers since there hasn't been an air attack since the Allies shot down 17 Frances bombers on the 12th.  The force will close to within 60 miles of Eniwetok tomorrow, so D-Day will be April 18.

Sumatra/Malaya:  Three of the Allied DDs badly damaged in the recent Battle of Malacca went under, as did one Japanese DD.  No further information on BB Ise yet.  The supply convoy is unloading and already most of the ground units on the beachhead are fully restocked.  To the north, reinforcements are disembarking at Georgetown, and still further north lead units are just 60 miles from what appears to be a lightly defended Ban Don.

NoPac:  The eastern element of the Paramushiro Jima invasion force just sailed by Kiska Island; the eastern element is on the way from Shikuka to the staging point at Onnekotan Jima.  Additional combat ships including four slow BBs are  coming from Shikuka too.  D-Day should be in about five days.  Paramushiro is held by 30,000 Japanese troops.  The invasion force includes one Army division, about four or five RCT, artillery, and HQ.  I do not have combat engineers.