Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

7/7/44 to 7/9/44
 
Malaya:  Mass confusion on the south end of the Malay peninsula as the Japanese appear to be retreating and staging at least a partial evacuation through Singapore.  An empty Kota Bahru fell to the Allies on the 8th and units are moving south.  On the other side, an Allied army has arrived at Kuala Lumpur.  British bombers from Sumatra are hitting abundant shipping in and around Singapore.  I don't know yet whether John intends to make a stand and fight for Singapore, or whether his intention is to hold it long enough to pull a Dunkirk.  He's lost alot of ships - so many that its completely made up for the 50 or 60 ships the Allies lost to the KB raid near Wake Island a few weeks back.  On the 9th, B-29s from Georgetown hit Palembang's oil scoring 32 hits.  To me this seems like a critical battle - if the Allies take Singapore that opens up the South China and Java seas to RN carriers and gives the Allies an airfield that can easily hit Batavia, Kuching, and Brunei.
 
China:  Jap bombers are hitting Sian's resources.  The Allies are winning the dogfights, but haven't had enough aircraft to stop the raids or to make them to costly.  So I've transferred in some squadrons from Burma and Andaman Islands.  Tomorrow, B-29s and B-24s at set to hit the "offending" Japanese airfield.
 
Japan:  Allied 4EBs hit Aomori, Tokyo, and Sapporo on the 7th.  They'v been resting since and I bet John's expecting a raid tomorrow.  But I'm going to give my pilots one more day off as I hope to throw John a curve.  A huge armada of carriers, combat ships, minelayers, and transports leaves Iwo tomorrow and moves toward Tori Shima.  I think John will expect another raid on Tokyo.  In fact, these ships are covering reinforcements, supplies, and mines destined for Tori.  I hope that this will lead John to bolster CAP over Tokyo, which he has recently left largley unguarded of late.  But day after tomorrow I'm planning on a large strike at Gumma.
 
SWPac:  The Allies are moving overland toward Koumac.  Beauforts at Noumea sank an AP at Koumac.  No sign of the KB, but I'm still thinking John will send carriers this way.
 
 

[Q-Ball]

Great read! You guys are playing the same version of BigB, and catching up to me; I am at 8.15.44 in my game with Hemajor. I didn't get as far as John, though my opponent can't bomb Japan yet except from China.

Playing late-war Japan is definitely a challenge; the losses are just staggering.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Q-Ball!  What's your lead in your game (assuming you still lead)?  John really hasn't suffered staggering losses in our game (except in battleships), but strategic bombing is giving the Allies alot of points - what I don't know is whether it's hurting the Japanese economy or war machine.

[Canoerebel]

7/10/44 and 7/11/44
 
Malaya:  The mayhem and confusion on the southern end of the peninsula continues.  On the west side, the Japanese remain in force at Kuala Lumpur, Malacca, and Johore Bharu.  A 1:1 Allied deliberate attack at Kuala Lumpur dropped forts to five but failed to disloldge the defenders.  On the east side, a small Allied army about 700 AV strong is advancing south from Kota Bharu on a road that will take them behind the Japanese positions at Malacca and Kuala Lumpur.  That means the Japanese will either have to withdraw from these two cities toward Singapore or send a force north out of Johore Bharu to deal with the Allied units advancing from Kota Bharu.  If John does neither he risks seeing 100,000 Japanese cut off from Singapore.  The Allies have so many airfields and aircraft in the area that it has become a death zone for Japanese shipping.  John will thus have a hard time evacuating his army from Singapore without high losses.  He's either got to stay and fight or bring strong new forces to bear.  Could the KB be headed this way? (Note:  John has evacuated Victoria Point and a little Allied base force should seize it tomorrow.  Ironic, because for many, many months the Allies had 3,500 AV 100% prepped for this base and it was garrisoned by 50,000 Japanese.  As things turned out, I never had to move there in force - all those prepped troops ended up in Sumatra or at Georgetown instead.  Flanking gave the Allies this base at viritually no direct cost).
 
China:  The Japanese airforce continues to target resources and airfields at Sian, Yenen, and Lanchow.  The Allies brought in reinforcements and the air battle will continue to escalate if the Japanese keep raiding.  But a-2-a losses have been one-sided against the Japs, a state-of-affairs that John detests.
 
Japan:  The Allies planned a big raid on Tokyo's airfield, resources, and Jack factory for the 11th, but none of the Shikuka bombers sortied.  Only the Iwo Jima aircraft came in - the P-38s handled the rather small Japanese CAP, and about 30 B-24s scored some hits (according to recon Tokyo's airfield is about 50% functional right now).  The Iwo aircraft are ordered to return tomorrow in hopes that the much bigger northern contingent of 4EB will strike too.
 
Iwo Jima:  The combined Allied carrier fleet has taken station 60 miles NE of Tori Shima as transports unload supplies and a CD unit there.  Tori has a level one airfield 63% to level two, so I can currently post about 48 fighters at the base.  That should be enough to deter John from making raids unless he's up to something big (so Tori may act as sort of a listening post).  It will also allow fighter sweeps into Japan's heartland, which will really tick off John.  Chichi Jima's airfield is 78% to level one.
 
NoPac:  The Allies have begun routine convoys from the West Coast to the Aluetians bases, and from there to Paramushiro, Onnekotan, and Shikuka.  The latter port has 18,000 mines.  Toyohara already has 2,000.  Mines plus the number of big air bases, fortifications, battleships, and strong garrisons make this area (Sikhalin Island) secure.  Or secure enough to give me peace of mind to keep my NoPac carriers in CenPac for now.
 
American Carriers:  At the moment the majority are on station around Iwo.  I think the operation to re-supply and reinforce Iwo, Tori, and Chichi is nearly finished.  I haven't decided where the carriers go from here, but the most likely duty will be to attend to Wake Island. 
 
CenPac and SWPac:  I have reinforcements including three Army divisions and a Marine division prepping for Wake, but I'm not 100% sure yet that I'll bring them in.  I 'm leaning that way, but I'm also mulling over the evacuation of the troops currently on Wake so that I can then head south in a move that would allow the CenPac forces to link up with the SWPac forces now at Noumea, most likely in a move that would mean the invasion of several bases in the Solomons.
 
Points:  (A) 57,445 to (J) 54,544.  Strategic Points:  7,448.

[JeffroK]

I was having a quick flick through another book on the ACW.

Cant help but feel that this is similar to Grant v Lee.

You are grinding down the japanese empire, attrition is one of your major weapons.

You will fight a Wilderness, a Cold Harbour, A Red River campaign.

John will have his Forrest & Moseby, they might sting but change little, he may try to regain the ascendancy but you should have the resources and high quality troops/aircraft to defeat him.

You will win, it wont happen overnight but it will happen.

As Grant did in front of Richmond, pick a target that he MUST fight for and go at it singlemindedly (Not that I have any idea where this is, it could be your Bombing campaign, or an attack somewhere else?)

Keep going!!!

[paullus99]

From the looks of things, the Japanese attack at Iwo (or attempted attack, since nothing big developed there) was in response to the bombing campaign. Given the lack of opposition of north, it looks like he's conceded northern Japan & only defending what he has to in Southern & Mid Japan.

It is a smart move on his part - only fight where he has to, maintain at least parity in those areas & bleed the Americans when the come calling. The house is burning down, but he's saving the kitchen sink for the last. He's got a pretty intact fleet, some good concentrations of fighters (and bombers), though I don't know where the bulk of his troops are stationed (though it looks like he'll take it on the chin in Malaysia).

How's Wake doing? If you can take it soon, it will open up some additional opportunities for you.

[Canoerebel]

7/12/44 to 7/14/44
 
Malaya on the Ground:  The Japanese lines are collapsing as John deals with the possibility of a large part of his army being cut off from the road to Singapore by advancing Allied troops.  To the west, his troops pulled out of Kuala Lumpur, which fell to a large Allied army on the 14th.  This army can now advance down the inland road toward Johore Bahru, threatening to cut off the Japanese army at Malacca, which is also under siege by another Allied army.  Meanwhile, a third (but much smaller) Allied army continues to advance south from Khota Bahru.  I don't know if John will make a stand at Johore Bahru or continue into Singapore.  The route is so sudden and complete, and John is so relaxed about it, that I think one of two situations has occurred:  (1) He had given up on Southern Malaya, prefering to concentrate on his inner perimeter defenses like Borneo and Java; or (2) He want to draw the Allies forward to strike behind.  I'd be much more worried about the latter if the Allies didn't have so much air power in the region.
 
Malaya in the Air:  The Allies have suddenly taken so many new bases that I'm having trouble getting base forces forward.  The main bases remain those on the north coast of Sumatra (home to many fighters and a few Wellington bomber groups) and Georgetown (home to two B-29 groups, about 70 Liberator IIIs, and 64 B-25s).  Two small Wellington groups are operating out of Kota Bharu.  The Jap airforce has pulled out - the closest concentration being Palembang - allowing Allied bombers to hit with relative impunity.  Bombers are being employed against ground troops and the abundant shipping fleeing Singapore.
 
Malaya at Sea:  An RN CL/DD force spent two days hammering shipping at Singapore, damaging 20 or more transports.  Of those, perhaps 12 went down.  Many of the damaged ships were then hit by Allied bombers.  The Allies did suffer one loss - CL Newfoundland succumbed to two mine hits followed by two torpedoes.
 
SWPac:  I am now revealing something I've omitted from my AAR.  Three weeks ago the RN carriers left Trincomalee for SWPac, stopping first at Perth to refuel and then rendezvouing with the CVs Bennington and Ticonderoga TF near Auckland.  I had hoped that John might send the KB this way and that I might ambush some Japanese carriers, but he hasn't (yet).  Yesterday a Dinah reported CV Victorious, so John should know what's up now (if he hadn't already suspicioned or guessed).  I'm not yet sure what the long-term use of the combined carrier fleet shall be.
 
Wake Island: The large Allied army at Wake continues to recover from disruption.  The AV exceeds 1,000 after falling to 350 immediately following the invasion.  In about two weeks I'll make the final decsion whether to reinforce or to pull out.
 
Japan:  The combined Allied 4EB forces from Iwo, Toyohara, and Shikuka are schedule to hit Gumma's airfield and aircraft factories tomorrow, preceded by P-38 and P-47 sweeps from Iwo and Tori Shima.  The 4EB at Shikuka that don't have the range to strike Gumma will instead target Sendai's resources.  The Jack factories are Tokyo and Hakodate are mostly out of commission now.  At Gumma I'm focusing on Jacks, Georges, Franks, and Frances.
 
Japanese defenses/Allied Plans:  John has loaded up the Java, Borneo, Celebes, Flores, and Timor bases with ground troops, and I suspect the same holds true for the Philippines.  The Allies have no intention of invading any bases in this area any time soon if ever.  For the foreseeable future, the Allies will concentrate on bombing the Home Islands, the campaign for Singapore, and the SWPac, SoPac, CenPac area. 
 
Carriers:  I have absolutely no idea where the KB is at the moment.  She was last known to be somewhere around Palau weeks ago, so she's had time to get almost anywhere.  American carriers remain focused around Iwo, with a small contingent in Hawaii and Midway.  There's the combined carrier fleet near Noumea, and more CVEs and a CV just arrived at Panama City.

[paullus99]

It does look like he's given up in Malaysia - at this point, reinforcing would just be sending in good after bad & open his shipping to more pounding once you've moved more airpower within range.

Given his previous tactics, I'd recommend keeping an eye out. He's always looking to "hit you where you ain't" so try looking at the front lines from his perspective. What's vulnerable? What would hurt?

[Canoerebel]

With the RN carriers out of the theater at present, John could bring to bear a massive invasion force that could overwhelm any particular location or area.   Sumatra would be an obvious target, but the loss of Sumatra wouldn't be a big blow to the Allies.  He could land behind my lines in Malaya, but I have so many men and bases there that I could turn to face him without too much trouble.  I admit that India is undergarrisoned and a bold, massive Japanese invasion would cause problems.  I've recently sent ground troops to Colombo, Karachi, and Bombay so that they have a little protection, and more troops are situated at Diamond Harbor and Rangoon.  I have reinforcements on the way in about a month that I intend to position in India until I'm absolutely certain that John isn't coming this way.  If I find the KB again (or if it finds me) I'll know more, because John will need the KB for such an undertaking.  I'd rate a re-invasion of Australia as unlikely since the Allies have alot of ground units, air power, and some carriers in the area.  A major operation in CenPac is unlikely since that's where the American carriers are currently stationed.  NoPac is unlikely due to the number of big Allied air bases and stout garrisons.
 
In other words, the only major invasion that would really trouble me is India.  John could do it if he really threw caution to the wind.

[Heeward]

Wake - Do you control the air over this base?

[Canoerebel]

I don't have any air at Wake except when my carriers are present.
 
One other important factor about CBI - the Allies have tons of 4EB and good fighters in Alaska ready to make the hop to China and then to CBI; and the same with 4EB (B-24s and B-29s) in Hawaii and on the West Caost.   The British and their Allies have vast stores of supplies, big air bases, and alot of base forces in this region.  The fighters will add more defense to the Chinese bases and the big bombers will be used both offensively and defensively in Sumatra/Malaya and vicinity. 

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't have any air at Wake except when my carriers are present.

One other important factor about CBI - the Allies have tons of 4EB and good fighters in Alaska ready to make the hop to China and then to CBI; and the same with 4EB (B-24s and B-29s) in Hawaii and on the West Caost.   The British and their Allies have vast stores of supplies, big air bases, and alot of base forces in this region.  The fighters will add more defense to the Chinese bases and the big bombers will be used both offensively and defensively in Sumatra/Malaya and vicinity. 

Have you thought about using your CV's to reduce the AB at Wake and then sending in the B-29's on an air based "nuke" as they transit west?

[paullus99]

Again, I doubt India is on the target list - the amount of transport & troops necessary would strip just about everything else at this point. If you spot the KB anywhere near there, you would have sufficient time to move additional airpower in place to blow him out of the sea. You might want to take a look at actions that could close down that corridor anyway - moving into the East Indies, in force, should certainly provoke a reaction.

If your focus has moved to the Pacific, finish off Wake - don't give him an opportunity to counterpunch here, or better yet hit him somewhere else once Iwo is reinforced. Your carriers represent a formidible striking force - don't be shy about using it - you might even draw out the KB for a standup fight - which, even if you lose a carrier or two, should inflict crippling damage on what he has left.

Good luck & keep up the good fight.

[tocaff]

The key to victory is always play to your advantages and your opponent's weaknesses.

Clobber Wake, take and keep it.  You've already committed there so use your power and then cast your eyes elsewhere.  Every base for your LBA closes more sea lanes to the IJN.

[Canoerebel]

7/15/44
 
Japan:  Major Allied 4EB raids concentrate on Sendai's resources (23 hits) and Gumma's airfield and aircraft factories.  The Japanese fighters performed better than usual, but the P-38s escorts from Iwo did their job so that the following waves of 4EB from Toyohara and Shikuka scored big.  Over the past six weeks, the Allies have hit Gumma six or seven times with the following damage to the main targeted factories:  Frank 50 (37), George 2 (47), Jack 61 (104), and Frances 8 (59).
 
Air Results for the Day:  As a result of the air battles (mainly over Gumma and Sendai) and an Allied strike on the Japanese airfield at Ichang, China, the Japs lost 207 aircraft (72 a-2-a, 120 field, 4 flak, 11 ops) to 64 for the Allies (52, 0, 4, 8).
 
Iwo Jima:  The combined American carrier TFs remain on station between Iwo and Tori Shima protecting transports.  This operation will be fininished shortly and the carriers will return to Midway, possibly making a side trip to Pagan or Marcus to fly some strikes.
 
Noumea:  Still no sign of a Japanese response to the New Caledonia invaison, which surprises me.
 
Malaya:  Allied bombers from Malaya and Sumatra continue to hammer Japanese transports in the Singapore area.  John hasn't pulled his Malacca garrsion out yet (6 units some 60,000 strong) and that too is a surprise because the Allies could cut them off from Singapore in three days.  John hates getting cut off, always plans ahead to extract troops and other assets, and never panics.  This Singapore/Southern Malaya situation is entirely out of character for him, which therefore worries me.
 
Points:  (A) 58,701 to (J) 54,669.  The Allies have a 1.07 to 1 ratio.  Strategic points:  8098.
 
Looking Forward:  For the foreseeable future, the Allies will concentrate on:  (1) Strategic bombing of Japan; (2) Conquest of Singapore; (3) Closing off the South China Sea to Japanese shipping; (4) Finishing up the capture of Wake Island; (5) Retaking important bases in SoPac and SWPac; (6) eventually obtaining bases that will allow Allied 4EB and carrier sweeps to close off the important sea routes around Celebes by which John ships resources from the DEI to Japan.  These objectives are within reach, which I hope will leave most of 1945 for the Allies to mount a few enormous invasions of some vital Japanese bases. 
 
 

[vettim89]

Thanks for the update, Dan

You know it occured to me, some people get up everymorning and read the newspaper. I get up every morning and read, Forlorn Hopes, Forlorn Hopes - the Japanese Respond, From Here to What Seems Like Eternity, and Small Ship, Big War.

I think I may have a problem. Hello, my name is Tim, I am a WItP addict. It has been two hours since I last played WItP - oh, wait! I've got mail and it has a turn file attached! (Vettim89 withdraws to computer with wild look in his eyes)

[ny59giants]

I find that I lose interest in AARs that are mainly Combat Reports with minimal narrative. I've been an "addict" for so long that I need a more powerful drug daily. Keep up the narrative and kick John's butt!![;)]

[Heeward]

I have to agree with tocaff - solve your Wake problem and you also partially solve your Iwo Jima supply problem. It also frees up assists for other operations. You need to gain air superiority here either with long range cap or fighter sweeps. This will also help you deplete Johns supplies - no air lift or shipping.
 
I do applaud you for concentrating your fleet finally.
 
As you war is attributional in nature you also need to find locations to employ more of your medium bomber squadrons (if you have not already).
Keep the steamroller going in Malaya. Your army there is the 800lb gorilla in the room who can walk where ever it wants (and walk is the word).
 
 

[Canoerebel]

7/16/44 to 7/23/44
 
The past week has involved several shifts in Allied focus wtih movement of troops and forces, so it has been a bit quieter than usual.

Japan:  The Allies continue to hit strategic targets every turn or so, but for some reason my B-29s at Shikuka have refused to fly the last two missions.  This has resulted in short-handed missions against Nagasaki and Tokyo that didn't accomplish much, except the latter introduced my pilots to the Frank, which will be a tough opponent.   A large force of P-38s and one group of B-24s from Iwo didn't accomplish anything against a stout CAP includinng 111 Franks over Tokyo on the 23rd.  There have been large and productive strikes against Akita and Niigata.  Tomorrow, I've set up large strikes against Sendai and Akita.

NoPac:  The Allies are shuffling troop fragments around to consolidate units in the correct bases.  Part of this includes augmenting the defenses at Toyohara, which is the base closes to Japan and therefore most likely to receive an invasion should John ever head this way.  Toyohara has 5,000+ mines and Shikuka 20,000.  The Allies are also using the Aleutians, Paramushiro, Onnekotan, and Shikuka's bases as stages to transfer more aircraft to China and SEAC.

CenPac:  The Allies completed the resupply mission to Iwo and Tori Shima and the combined carrier TFs and empty transports are heading back to Midway.  I stripped the two BBs from Iwo's defenses out of concern that they are KB magnets.  For now, I'll see if 200 fighters, a CA/CL TF, and 33,000 mines is sufficient to defend this base.  If trouble arises I'll send the cavalry back.  But for now the cavalry will be charged with escorting the "2nd Wave" of amphibious forces to Wake Island.  I want to take that base so that I can move on to other objectives.

SWPac:  The Allies are sniffing around Koumac to see how strongly it's held.  No sign of the KB in this area, which really surprises me.  I won't disclose where the American/RN carrier force is right now for security reasons.  The Allies will soon invade Espiritu or Luganville, which appear lightly held.

Malaya:  The Allies have cut off the Japanese troops at Malacca, but the Japanese still hold the base and have bled the besieging army badly.  Forts are down to two and the Allies may take Malacca tomorrow.  A major Allied army has advanced to Johore Bahru, held by a large Japanese army.  There is also a large Japanese army at Singapore, and a small contingent at Mersing.  The Allies will take a vacated Kuantan tomorrow.  I posted a small Allied DD force at Singapore to handle Jap barges, but a powerful Jap combat TF (including several CAs) hit last night, sinking three DDs while CL Jintsu was set afire.  Allied air controls this region now, and Liberator IIIs from Georgetown hammered a Japanese transport fleet at Saigon.  A modest Japanese force holds Bangkok (4 units 35,000 strong) and the Allies have a 400 AV army a hex to the north (Lop Buri) which will advance to feel out the strength of the defenses.   If Bangkok looks vulnerable, the Allies have a 1200 AV army across the river.  It looks like John may be prepared to surrender all of Malaya, Siam, and Vietnam as lost causes.

China:  John just loaded up Ichang with what seems to be 500 aircraft (although the base is a level six so 300 is the max allowed per our houserule).  The Allies have been augmenting the number of fighters at main Chinese bases for several weeks.  I've ordered a strike of B-29s (one group), B-24s (one group), and B-25s (four squadrons) to hit Ichang's airfield tomorrow, and I stiffended fighter defenses at Chungking, Changsha, and Hengchow. 

Points:  (A) 59,754 to (J) 54,938.  Ratio:  1.08 to 1.  Strategic Points:  8,576.

[Canoerebel]

7/24/44 and 7/25/44
 
Japan:  All 4EB from Shikuka, including the three B-29 groups, hit Akita and Sendai on the 24th, scoring many hits on resources, heavy industry, and a few other targets.  These groups will stand down a few days and then strike again.

NoPac:  Fighter and bomber squadrons continue to stage through NoPac to China and SEAC.  With abundant airbases and an efficient supply network in the CBI theater, the Allies expect to really ramp up the bombing operations there.

CenPac:  The American carrier group is midway between Iwo and Midway; no sign of the KB (and I really don't expect John to challenge the American carriers).  Thus far the Japs haven't tried any concerted strikes on Iwo or Tori.  The Iwo B-24 group hit Saipan's shipping on the 24th, damaging an AD and two ARs. 

SWPac:  The Allies continue to snoop around Koumac and Luganville contemplating the chances for quick and easy conquests.

Malaya/Siam/Vietnam:  It appears that the Japs will try to hold at Johore Bahru before making a more final stand at Singapore.  It also appears that John may be quiety evacuating troops from Siam and Vietnam.  The Chinese will advance south from Hue to test this possibility on the one side, while the combined Chinese and British army probes Bangkok to the west.  Liberator IIIs from Georgetown hit two CLs in the South China Sea, and other bombers (including two B-29 groups) damaged a dozen or so merchant ships at Saigon.  So what happens if the Japs truly concede SEAC?  Allied bombing would then focus on Palembang and other DEI bases; but what about ground troops?  Invade Java?  Borneo?  Perhaps even coastal China to create the possibility of a link-up with the interior Chinese army and provide airbases close to Formosa and southern Japan?   I'm not sure yet, but I'll mull these over as the situation develops.

Points (as of 7/24/44):  (A)  60,182 to (J) 54,859; Ratio:  1.09 to 1; Strategic Points:  8,872.