ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
John is no doubt creating false intel with the subject line!
Until the Allies get 4E's in strength, the primary defense in the Pacific is an IJN Air Fleet; specifically, Bettys and Zeros based at Truk or Rabaul that can quickly stage to a trouble spot. A chain of Lvl 4 airbases at Wake, Kwaj, Tarawa, Noumea, PM, etc, can keep an Allied invasion at bay. We need some subs on picket duty, and lots of search aircraft, but provided we get some warning, we can really do a number on any Allied invasion fleet with Zero/Bettys. A ground reserve at Truk, with enough transport capacity to lift it, can be anywhere in the perimeter within a couple weeks. We have to defend this area with a minimal ground force commitment, to put it all in India; but we can do it with the IJN Air Fleet, CD guns, mines, etc. This strategy is of course moot once P-38 escorted 4Es can pound the target base; at that point, you really need boots on the ground, and the equation changes completely.
I do not advocate a CV split; we must keep those 4 together. A CV battle loss would be a disaster. But 4 should be sufficient for defense until 10/42 or so. In fact, 4 will be enough for attack through 5/42.
I advocate a landing on Northern Oz with small forces; it's not well defended, and I think would be more successful to create a diversion than recon flights. A full scale invasion is completely out, and even taking Darwin is probably out of our reach. This area freaks me out though, an Allied push from there can make the Solomons completely irrelevant, and get to your Oil very very fast!
Regardless, there will be no Allied moves until at least 5/42, and probably not until they get CV Wasp and TBFs. That gives us time to set up and build the defensive perimeter.
I would NEVER do 'false' intel. I must have mis-typed Hawaii when I meant something else... [8D]
