Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[String]

Hm, you know, I'll send you a PM with a strategic idea I had.

[vettim89]

I t just hit me. You guys have been cranking out the turns. As you know, Larry and I are playing Big B 1.4 too shich is how I started reading this AAR (before I became addicted). A few montsh back you and John were about six months ahead of us. Now you are eleven months ahead of us. Larry and I have not slowed down; you guys sped up

[Canoerebel]

9/3/44 to 9/5/44
 
Tokyo:  After reconfiguring fighter and bomber allocations through the western theaters, the Allies tried out the new model on the 5th.  58 P-47Ds from Tori Shima flew a sweep over Tokyo, tangling with 9 Frank, 39 jack, and 18 George (that's a light defense).  The Allies lost 8 fighters, the Japs 36  (9 F, 14 J, 13 G).  Next came 239 B-29s from Shikuka, facing 25 Jack and 5 George.  The fighters got only four bombers, and the six bomber groups hit the airfield (37 aircraft destroyed on the ground), Ohka factory (8 hits), Frank factory (36 hits), and Resources (104) hits.  The Okha factory is at 2(8), the two Frank factories at 2(77) and 3(36), and Resources 398(513).  The new bomber alignment plus the high level of damage inflicted (at least according to my evaluation) should get John's full attention - he's just got to do something about Tori and Iwo Jima, if not Sikhalin Island, if he intends to keep fighting.  Doesn't he?  Assuming that he does, I'm going to change tactics for a week.  I think I'll keep my Tori and Iwo fighters back for defense, and in about four days let the Superforts raid a "lesser" (and therefore lightly defended, hopefully) target without escort.
 
Singapore:  The Allies bombarded on the 3rd, inflicting 1,000 casualties, and then attacked the next two days, getting high odds, inflicting thousands of casualties (7K one day, 5K the next), and finishing off about ten units.  John has brought in a large AG group to continue his Dunkirk operations.  The port and airfield are down to 62% damage, so flight operations can commence.  Engineers are two days away.
 
SEAC:  The Allies took Siem Riep on the 3rd.  There are no Jap bases in mainland SEAC, which is truly hard to believe.  The Japanese armies at Siem Riep and Singapore should vanish in days.  Troops continue to gather at Saigon and other non-malarial bases.
 
China:  The Changsha B-29s hit Keijo, Korea on the 4th, destroying 58 resources.  In one of the real oddities of the game, a Dutch recon squadron flying biplanes is reconning Kanhsien from Changsha.  A mighty army is gathering and reorganizing in southeastern China.
 
NoPac:  Toyahara's 4EB hit Aomori on the 4th, destroying 87 Heavy Industry and some other assets.  These bombers will hit various targets on Hokkaido tomorrow.  SigInt indicates a Japanese independent brigade is prepping for Paramushiro.  Attacks at Dutch Island are making slow progress towards eradicating the never-say-die Japanese defenders.
 
CenPac and SWPac:  I finally decided I didn't like the set up for amphibious operaitons in these theaters.  John has too many strong bases, too much territory hasn't been scouted by the Allies, and he's had plenty of time to orchestrate some kind of ambush.  I'm calling off the pincer amphibious operations for awhile.  There's probably nothing to fear, but I nonetheless have warning bells going off.  The sighting of a Judy near Efate on the 5th was just the kind of straw to break a camel's back.  At the moment, the plan is for the American carriers to return to Wake or Midway; two carriers (or more) will return to San Fran for long-awaited upgrades, to be replaced by CV Randolph.
 
Strategic Plans:  So, for the immediate future, the American carriers will remain in some central location where they can go running should problems arise somewhere.  The emphasis will remain on bombing the Home Islands, plus Operation Shooting Star in the west. 
 
Points:  (A) 68,456 (J) 55,875; Ratio:  1.22 to 1; Strategic:  11,064.
 

[Canoerebel]

9/6/44
 
Operation Dandelion:  50th Indian Paratroops ordered to hit Kiungshan, on the island of Hainan, tomorrow.  I had this unit moving toward Camranh Bay and prepping for Samah, Hainan's southern city, for several weeks.  Recon yesterday showed Samah lightly occupied, so a para assault would be risky, but recon today showed Kiungshan vacant.  So this shoestring operation will get underway.  If successful, the Allies will bring in reinforcements by air transport - a bunch of infantry prepped for Samah and a base force.  This is the opening move of Operation Shooting Star, but needs a different name so that John doesn't realize that Shooting Star is aimed thisaway.

DEI:  B-29s and B-24s from Darwin hit Kendari, damaging an AS, 9 resrouces, and 9 supply points.

SEAC:  The latest Allied attack at Singapore wipes out 24.4k Japanese troops, while the one at Siem Riep wipes out 10.4k.  The remnants of both Japanese armies should evaporate within two or three days.  The complex and widespread logistical preparations continue for shooting star.

NoPac/CenPac:  Quiet day at Iwo, Tori Shima, and Sikhalin Island.  The big Allied armada lately heading south from Eniwetok has returned to that island and will continue on to Wake.

[Canoerebel]

9/7/44 and 9/8/44
 
Sheesh!:  My opponent sent a lengthy email describing his view on events in the game.  He began by complimenting the Allied campaign in SEAC, but then threw in a gratuitous insult:  "The whole attack into this area was magnificent.  Using the Amphib to get around my flanks was well done and executed.  The problem is that you don't know when to take a big risk and go for the throat.  I should have lost all that territory 4-5 months ago."
 
Thanks, John.
 
From my perspective, John never should've pulled out of Malaya - I believe he could have kept an army present for at least another three or four months (finally making a last stand at Singapore like his isolated troops did at Malacca for so long).  Now that I have Singapore most of his resource centers are within range of Allied bombers, plus the Royal Navy and Allied transports are able to move about in the South China Sea, plus I have about 5000 AV that can begin prepping for new targets.  There's also the prospect of the British and Americans meeting up somewhere in the middle, like Philippines or Formosa.  Had John contested the ground in Malaya vigorously, I think he could have postponed facing this dilemma for months.  It would have cost him an army, but in WitP: Japanese squads are "cheap points" and can be expended to buy time and save critical territory.
 
SEAC:  All Japanese resistance in mainland SEAC vanished on the 8th, with the Japanese remnants at Siem Riep and Singapore evaporating.  The airfield at Singapore (currently a 6 that will be built up to 9) is fully operational now, and the RN moves here from Johore Bharu tonight.  200 fighters and 100 bombers are based here, now, with vice-versa at Johore.  The massive Allied army at Singapore has already begun prepping for new targets.  I think the Japanese are pulling out of eastern Sumatra, including Palembang, but I'm not positive yet.  Three Indian divisions and a British division are prepping for Palembang, and smaller units for adjacent bases and the little island bases east of Singapore.
 
Operation Shooting Star:  Preliminary aspects of the massive Allied amphibious and land-operations are underway.  50th Indian Paratroops opened the campaign by seizing a lightly occupied Kiungshian, the base at the northern tip of Hainan Island (this was Operation Dandelion, an impromptu and successful coup de main).  Transports will carry reinforcements to this base to allow the Allies to take the lightly-garrisoned southern city (Samah).  These can be built into large air bases that are proximate to Hong Kong and Formosa.  Massed Chinese armies are prepping for Canton and other coastal Chinese cities, but won't advance for a little longer (with the exception of one element that will advance from Hengchow toward Canton, thus posing a threat to the flank of the Japs units at Kanhsien).  British troops and their Allies are gathering at "good" bases like Saigon and prepping for Hong Kong.
 
Operation Blazing Star:  The massive Allied carrier and transport armada lately recalled from an invasion of the Solomons is now approaching Wake Island; there it will drop off some ships, pick up others, and head for Midway.  This force may (may) coordinate with Operation Shooting Star, either by posing as a diversion (sailing west from Iwo to threaten Formosa), thus hopefully preventing the Japs from giving full attention to the British and Chinese hitting the China coast.  But the Americans will bring along a full compliment of troops prepping for Formosa.  That way, if things go so well in China that the Allies take and build up airbases on the coast within range of Formosa, the American forces can hit the beaches.  The primary purpose of Blazing Star is to serve as a diversion, but it will be able to react to an opportunity if one should arise.
 
Operation Dont Fight the War the Way the Enemy Expects You To:  Another John comment:  "While your LBA is massive and frightening, you now have to stage seaborne invasions of you next major target.  I have enough air and naval to make that costly.  Should be interesting to watch and see how it plays out."  John probably envisions a major Allied invasion of DEI, Philippines, etc., in which the Allies will have to steam out from under the cover of LBA and fight on his home court.  I won't do that, patly because I already did it (Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island) so that I wouldn't have to do it now, but also because I think Shooting Star is safer and accomplishes the same objective - choking off Japan from the DEI.  (One of the pleasures in this game has been using flanking movements to rattle the enemy, to take lightly garrisoned and fortified bases, and then, after the enemy has been forced to withdraw from where he thought the attack would come, taking the vacant or nearly vacant bases with level 9 forts that he abandoned.)
 
Another Interesting Observation:  John:  "This theme of not going for the jugular can also be used in the Central/North Pacific.  I lost the war when you grabbed Iwo Jima.  You and I both know that wasn't your true target; however, it was taken and life became very scary for Japan.  At that point Okinawa and Formosa were ripe for the picking.  My supply line to the DEI would have been cut and life for the Empire would have been ended."  So, the Iwo Jima invasion wins the war for the Allies, but it wasn't successful enough in his eyes?
 
Reply to John:  In my reply to John, I told him that I thought he had made a fundamental mistake in his analysis of the game:  "[font=arial]It's really interestinng to read your analysis, but I think you may have fallen into the trap of seeing your weaknesses, assuming I can see them too, and forgetting that I have problems of my own. (And you'll think the same of my analysis when you read my take on these things)."  He thinks I failed to go for the jugular?  What about him?  The Hokkaido invasion had fallen apart after the KB eliminated all American strike aircraft and hammered the troop transports.  All John had to do to win the game was to interdict my almost defenseless transports as they unloaded at Hakodate, Sapporo, Toyohara, and Shikuka.  For some reason he refused to commit his combat ships into the fray (I had assumed he would do so, which is why I sacrificed BB North Carolina in a desperate effort to protect my transports unloading at Hakodate).  But the biggest mystery is why he didn't commit the KB to strike the American carriers once they had no chance of hitting back. Instead he backed off and then pussy-footed around while dispersing his carriers, a move that cost him dearly.  John should have won the war at Hokkaido, but that's where he actually lost it.[/font]
 
Japan:  Toyohara's 4EB hit Hokkaido targets on thge 7th and are to hit Aomori tomorrow.  On the 8th, 174 unescorted B-29s hit Kyoto, downing three Tonys and losing four bombers; the survivoring bombers damaged 15 resources, 13 heavy industry, 15 George points, and 9 Randy points.
 
CenPac/SWPac:  The Allies took an unoccupied Canton Island (which had 9 forts) on the 8th, and will now scout Baker Island.  I think my hunch about Jap carriers was right - recon shows three at Lunga.  So for now I'm scaling back operations as I don't have the resources to protect my ships without taking chances I don't want to take.  I have a carrier force that I could commit to this region, but it is woefully low on fuel.  Australia is still feeling the supply/fuel effects of being isolated for so long.
 
Points:  (A) 69,479 (J) 55,880; Ratio:  1:24 to 1; Strategic Points:  11,186.

[vettim89]

I normally refrain from posting in either AAR as I do not want to even inadvertently give away important intelligence. I think you are dead on here Dan. As a reader of both AAR's I think I can say this without being a spy: there have been times where both of you have been dead on in your assessment of your opponents capabilities and plans and times when both of you have been so far off it literally has made me laugh. I am not saying that to mock either of you just that we have a Godlike view because of the parallel AAR's. There have been many times when you have said something like "I think John is planning a move on XXX" when the truth is he was heading in the exact opposite direction. Likewise there have been times where you both assessed the situation perfectly. So I agree that for John to take shots at your strategy only knowing his side is making conclusions on only 50% of the data.

I posted in John's AAR the other day and I make the same exact post here:

"You guys have no idea how much fun this is to watch"

[tocaff]

The 2 of you posting from your own point of view of the same situation, giving your thoughts, plans, etc. have kept this war of yours so entertaining.  Maybe in the future others will follow this example that the 2 of you have made and we'll enjoy another war from our "cheap seats."

[Canoerebel]

9/9/44 and 9/10/44
 
Tori Shima:  The Japs hit Tori Shima back-to-back days, with gratifying results for the Allies.  The were two strikes on the 9th, followed by another on the 10th, as follows.

Strike One:  49 Frank, 16 Zeke, 14 Jack, 23 Frances, 51 Helen vs. 11 P-38J, 63 P47-D, 11 P-38L.  The Japs lost 31 F, 15 Z, 12 J, 10 F, 14 Helen (82 aircraft) to 10 P-47 and 1 P-38L (11 aircraft).

Strike Two:  67 Frank, 27 Tony, 61 Jill, 2 Myrt, 29 Peggy, 1 Dinah vs. 6 P-38J, 24 P-47D, 5 P-38L.  The Japs lost 35 F, 14 T, 5 J, 2 M, 2 P, 1 D (59 aircraft) to 1 P-38J, 18 P-47D, 5 P-38L (24 aircraft).

Strike Three:  85 Frank, 6 Zeke, 8 Jack, 53 Betty, 17 Frances, 97 Helen, 9 Peggy vs. 8 P-38J, 50 P-47D, 4 P-38L.  The Japs lost 66 F, 4 Z, 3 J, 3 B, 1 F, 13 H, 1 P (91 aircraft) to 3 P-38J, 16 P-47D, 2 P-38L (21 aircraft).

Total Aircraft Lost over Two Days (Total, not just at Tori):   (A) 87 (J) 259.

Situation:  The Japanese only scored a few hits that were immediately repaired.  The Allies are also able to shuttle in replacement squadrons from Sikhalin Island and Paramushiro (and can also do so from China if the need arises).  IE, I would love for this attrition to continue as it will affect John's pilot quality.  Also, I think I'm beginning to detect some erosion in his ability to put up Franks, though this could just be wishful thinking on my part.  I do think this is the beginning of a concerted effort by John to address the situation at Tori Shima and Iwo Jima, so I'm glad I had recalled the American carriers and other ships from that Solomons venture.  These ships are just north of Wake now, on a course that will take them to Midway for reprovisioning and refueling; but if an emergency should arise, the carriers can sprint for Iwo.  (P.S. - the "Flaming Tori" title of this post is intended to suggest to John that his raids, while costly to him, have also hurt the Allies; I want him to continue!)

Tomorrow:  The Allies brought in more fighters and swapped a P-38 squadron at Tori for Corsairs.  The six B-29 squadrons at Shikuka are to hit Tokyo tomorrow, preceded by a fighter sweep from Iwo Jima.  I've also ordered four B-29 squadrons at Changsha to hit Tokyo, but I doubt they'll agree to go that far.

SWPac:  John pulled the carriers away from Lunga; B-29s from Charters Towers hit the port there damaging 2 AR, an AD, and an AS.  It looks like John was using this as he "central" carrier port for this area.

[Canoerebel]

9/11/44 to 9/13/44
 
Massive Allied armies and forces are on the move and preparing to take the war to the enemy...is the enemy doing the same?
 
Operation Shooting Star:  Dozens of Allied units are strung out from Alor Star to Bangkok to Hanoi to Wuchow, where they are gathering as the Allies prepare for the land-portion of the China Coast offensive.  Most of these troops are prepping for Canton (including one of the big British divisions), but a sizeable contingent of British and Indian units are prepping for Hong Kong.  The amphibious elements (mostly prepping for Swatow on the coast NE of Canton) are gathering at Singapore, where I'll be woefully short on transports, but probably will still have enough to give John fits.  The airborne portion of this operation commenced with the capture of the base at the northern tip of Hainan Island a few days ago - the troops there are now marching (slowly) toward Samah at the south end.
 
SEAC:  At Singapore, another sizeable army (mostly Indian divisions) is prepping for Palembang, although it'll be awhile before I have transports available to carry through with this operation.  The Allies are heavily reconning eastern Sumatra, western Java, southwestern Borneo, and all the little islands to (hopefully) reinforce the appearance that this is the target of the next big Allied offensive.  Allied bombers are mostly targeting Palembangs airfield and port facilities.  Another element of this deception is the shoe-string invasion of a very lightly held Singkep Island (east of Singapore).  American troops landed on the 13th and should take this island tomorrow. 
 
China:  The Allies will advance on a broad front, threatening Canton (the real target), Nanchang (a false target), and Singyang (a real target only because it seems to be held by only two Japanese units - this base threatens Ichang's flank).   I haven't tallied AV yet, but I think the army moving on Canton and Hong Kong will approach 15,000.  The army moving on Nanchang will be about 2,500.  The army moving on Singyang will be about 3,000.  With the sea lanes and good roads open from Saigon and Singapore, the Allies are moving alot of base forces and supplies up into China.
 
Japan:  Oops, I screwed up a big strike on Tokyo.  You may recall that I had a big strike scheduled for the 11th, with 10 B-29 groups from China and Sikhalin Island.  To my surprise, the four from China arrived (I figured they wouldn't carry through with the raid) but those from Sikhalin failed.  First, a sweep by Tori Shima's fighters knocked down six Japs at a cost of eight American fighters.  Then 146 B-29s from Changsha destroyed 23 Jap aircraft in the air and on the ground, losing seven bombers.  The survivors hit resources and heavy industry.  With that raid complete, I ordered the Shikuka groups to follow-up the next day, but I forgot to order a sweep from Tori.  So the bombers came in unescorted, lost 18 planes, and scored but few hits.  These B-29 groups are now demoralized and it will take another three or four days before they'll be ready to fly.  The Japs have at least temporarily given up efforts to strike the airfield at Tori Shima.  Chichi Jima is 97% to a level one airfield.
 
NoPac:  The two U.S. Army divisions tasked with wiping out Japanese resistance at Dutch Harbor are having a tough time.  I want to be sure to finish this operation up so that they can begin prepping for Cold Bay in time to invade prior to onset of Arctic winter conditions.  This is a minor consideration; right now, the major news in NoPac is that Sikhalin Island appears secure and the Allied supply system is operating at high capacity.  (To reiterate my feelings, Sikhalin Island has been the key to the game since December 1943; why John hasn't hit it with everything he has is beyond me).
 
CenPac:  A massive Allied armada is gathering NW of Wake Island, made up of both the armada recently recalled from a move toward the Solomons, and another just moving out from Midway.  This combined force will have perhaps seventy carriers, scores of ground units, and large amounts of supplies and fuel.  It will move toward Iwo and take station there pending a decision on how to best use it to assist or compliment the operations along the China coast.  The Allies have just taken a vacant (but with 9 forts) Baker Island.
 
SWPac:  A final word about the cancelled Solomons operation.  It was premised on the likelihood that these bases were isolated and therefore lightly defended.  As my ships moved south from Eniwetok, however, recon from the squadron based at Milne Bay showed that both Rabaul and Lunga were heavily fortified with large naval and air assets present.  This, added to the fact that Truk and Kwajalein are also heavily defended, made it clear that any operation in this theater needed a full commitment.  I think I can employ my assets better near Japan, so I cancelled the operation.  Small-scale, low-risk operations will continue (the Baker Island, Canton Island invasions are good examples of what I'm looking for - vacant or lightly-defended bases).

[String]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


This combined force will have perhaps seventy carriers,

[X(]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: String

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


This combined force will have perhaps seventy carriers,

[X(]

LOL. I had better double-check that number. There will be something like 40 CVEs, 9 or 10 CVs, and about 9 CVLs. So I think 60 carriers is more accurate. That'll be roughly 1,250 fighters, 360 dive bombers, and 591 torpedo bombers.

[tocaff]

Still a pretty large force.

[bigbaba]

Total Aircraft Lost over Two Days (Total, not just at Tori):   (A) 87 (J) 259.

outch. thats a good rate for the allied..espacialy with so many japanese fighter pilots dead.

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: bigbaba

Total Aircraft Lost over Two Days (Total, not just at Tori):   (A) 87 (J) 259.

outch. thats a good rate for the allied..espacialy with so many japanese fighter pilots dead.

it´s a good rate for the Allied, but still isn´t that impressive that the Allied may be used to. It´s below a 3:1 and I would be happy to only suffer such a loss rate as the Japanese at this date. Would you be happy as the Japanese with "only" a 3:1 in early 42? I doubt it, Japanese players are used to the 5:1+ in early 42 and Allied players are normally used to 7:1+ in 44. Of course a lot depends on the aircraft the Japanese employs and the pilot quality of course.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: bigbaba

Total Aircraft Lost over Two Days (Total, not just at Tori):   (A) 87 (J) 259.

outch. thats a good rate for the allied..espacialy with so many japanese fighter pilots dead.

it´s a good rate for the Allied, but still isn´t that impressive that the Allied may be used to. It´s below a 3:1 and I would be happy to only suffer such a loss rate as the Japanese at this date. Would you be happy as the Japanese with "only" a 3:1 in early 42? I doubt it, Japanese players are used to the 5:1+ in early 42 and Allied players are normally used to 7:1+ in 44. Of course a lot depends on the aircraft the Japanese employs and the pilot quality of course.

I understand your point Castor T but I think Dan is having the same problem I have in my game with Larry. That is that geographical constraints prohibit the Allies from fighting on a broad front. In 1944, the Allies were fighting in Burma, NG, the CENTPAC, Carolines, Marianas, and finally the Phillipines. Dan's offensive has been much narrower thus only exposing John to the "Tip of the Spear" at two points (until the recent action in China). There has been no epic battle for the SOPAC in this game and no long "Island Hopping" run across the CENTPAC. This has allowed the Japanese to retain far more of their air strength than would be seen in many games that are at this point. Where I really see the parallel to my game with Larry is John sees no compunction to continue to throw units into areas of operation where the tide has obviously turned. My motto in my AAR with Larry has increasingly been through 1943, "Stand still Larry so I can hit you!" As an AFB, your goal in 1943 is to engage the Japanese in operations where you feel your opponent has to stand and fight allowing you to engage in the desired battle of attrition that almost always favors the Allies. John and Larry have both refused to do this and I am sure Dan feels the same type of frustration at times that I do. Hard to deliver a fatal blow on an opponent that refuses battle.

One thing you have to admit about Dan and John's game is that it is unique in the way events have developed.

[Canoerebel]

Vettim is dead-right about the odd nature of the game.  Because of the narrow focus, and because John is by nature conservative with his aircraft, I think his pilot pool remains high quality, and he still has alot of aircraft.  And this is as it should be given the peculiar course taken in our game.

One thing, though, Vettim.  In '43 I think the Allies should only take on the Japs when they know the odds will be favorable (IE, a lightly defended area or a surprise attack).  I wouldn't go hunting for the main body of the Japs until '44.  In '43, the two sides are still fairly even.  In '44, the Allies have a marked advantage.  Don't commit to a huge battle until the odds favor you.

[JeffroK]

IMVHO,

By mid 1943 the Allies have to start looking to take on the japanese and force the attrition battle that the japanese cannot afford.

If they wait too long the japanese can build up the numbers and the quality to make 1944 a bloody battle for the Allies.

I dont suggest Hokkaido[8D] but depending on the situation start chipping away. I feel that New Guinea plays an important part in that it isnt a quick smash and grab invasion but a long drawn out campaign.

[Big B]

Just my 2c here.

But in the game I just finished, I (my team) had drained the IJN pilot pool by early March 1942. It was an all-out/no-holds-barred game, but we brought everything in the arsenal forward to fight in the first months of 1942 in the DEI, the Allies were operating with the entire USN and RN, plus over 1,600 land-based combat aircraft from Rangoon to Timor, and we drained the Japanese Navy's pilot pool to negative numbers by the end of February 1942.

We mostly lost twice as many aircraft as they did in air battles of at least 200-300 aircraft, but we persevered and had them flying many 30 experience pilots by March 1942. By April we were trading even in losses for each air battle...and it was all down-hill for the Japanese from April 1942 on.

So my advice is not to wait for 1943 - concentrate early and fight tooth and nail, it will pay off quicker than you can imagine.

B

ORIGINAL: JeffK

IMVHO,

By mid 1943 the Allies have to start looking to take on the japanese and force the attrition battle that the japanese cannot afford.

If they wait too long the japanese can build up the numbers and the quality to make 1944 a bloody battle for the Allies.

I dont suggest Hokkaido[8D] but depending on the situation start chipping away. I feel that New Guinea plays an important part in that it isnt a quick smash and grab invasion but a long drawn out campaign.

[Canoerebel]

I think it depends on the quality and experience of the opponent.  You don't want to try that kind of stuff with John III or any of a number of capable Axis commanders.  Just look at the fits John and Q-Ball are giving the Allied team, which is plenty experienced.
 
But, as I've said repeatedly, against a less-experienced or less-capable opponent all bets are off and the Allies can play much more aggressively.

[Big B]

Perhaps, but we faced down the entire air strength of Japan. There wasn't anything more they could have flown at us. They could always let us hold the DEI while they overrun every atol in the Pacific - but who cares? They will have to feed them, we held their grocery store.
The key is to bleed them from Day#1. To be fair, the Japanese Army Air Force still had pilots (but 55 exp replacements flying Oscars and Nates are not anything to be afraid of).

I can only say - CONCENTRATE and make them pay a price for every victory.

EDIT: While I readily agree the caliber of opponent, and die rolls, may strongly effect the position of the defensive line - the determination to gather force and fight it out in a war of attrition will not change the results of a continued long series of air battles - the losses will still occur....the most important thing you need are the numbers of aircraft to commit, and in WitP, large numbers of aircraft make a difference in battles.[;)]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think it depends on the quality and experience of the opponent.  You don't want to try that kind of stuff with John III or any of a number of capable Axis commanders.  Just look at the fits John and Q-Ball are giving the Allied team, which is plenty experienced.

But, as I've said repeatedly, against a less-experienced or less-capable opponent all bets are off and the Allies can play much more aggressively.