Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[bigbaba]

a impressive armada.

one question about your homeland air defence, john:

i would think that you have base forces with typ 13 or typ 21 radar systems in the towns, or?

and how do you manage the fighter defence. do you set multiple fighter squadrans on "LRCAP" without a specific target and hope that they intercept enemy bombers flying to their targets in japan? or do you have specific targets for your LRCAP?

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: bigbaba

a impressive armada.

one question about your homeland air defence, john:

i would think that you have base forces with typ 13 or typ 21 radar systems in the towns, or?

and how do you manage the fighter defence. do you set multiple fighter squadrans on "LRCAP" without a specific target and hope that they intercept enemy bombers flying to their targets in japan? or do you have specific targets for your LRCAP?

the base forces get the type 13 air search radar.

[Mistmatz]

To quote a fellow reader of this and probably also your opponents AAR:



[8D]

[modrow]

ORIGINAL: Mistmatz

To quote a fellow reader of this and probably also your opponents AAR:



[8D]

Do you wish to imply anything ? If so, let me know and I'll be gone from this thread.

I try to follow one rule for games with AARs for both sides: Once you start posting more than once in one, stop reading the other - so you make sure you are not the one who unintentionally leaks information. I am not aware of having read the other side since I picked up posting here.

Hartwig

[Mistmatz]

Hartwig, I don't want to imply anything. Actually I wasn't even refering to you. Perhaps a case of english not being my mother tongue. Sorry if I offended you or anybody else, it was definately unintentionally.

I just wanted to express the tension and fun I'm experiencing reading this thread and also the counterpart.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Mistmatz

Hartwig, I don't want to imply anything. Actually I wasn't even refering to you. Perhaps a case of english not being my mother tongue. Sorry if I offended you or anybody else, it was definately unintentionally.

I just wanted to express the tension and fun I'm experiencing reading this thread and also the counterpart.

I read both AAR's and therefore normally refrain from posting in either other than posts like the one above to the effect of I am really having a lot of fun. I did enter the discussion in Dan's AAR regarding victory conditions but that had almost nothing to do with the actual play of this game. I think when this game concludes these two AAR's will live for months as we will all be free to speak and the discussions will go on for a while

[modrow]

Mistmatz,

thanks for the clarification. I might simply have misunderstood - English is not my mother tongue either plus probably I am presently thin-skinned because I don't have a PBEM going and don't have the time to pick up a new one for 4-6 more weeks [;)] But then...

ORIGINAL: Mistmatz

Hartwig, I don't want to imply anything. Actually I wasn't even refering to you. Perhaps a case of english not being my mother tongue. Sorry if I offended you or anybody else, it was definately unintentionally.

I just wanted to express the tension and fun I'm experiencing reading this thread and also the counterpart.

I agree completely re. tension and fun. Excellent AAR by John.

Hartwig

[John 3rd]

You guys have no idea how fun it is for me to wake up, check the AAR and find that it has gone up 50-60 hits since I going to bed.  It is fun to know that a lot of people are enjoying my impending doom. 

TRUST ME--you will be rewarded with one heck of a swan song at the end of 1944! 

As to Bigbaba's question regarding CAP over Japan.  I should note that most of my army fighters are now back down to terrible experience.  Most are in the 50s now.  Only way to counter that is with numbers over the target.  I have about 50% of my fighters flying CAP 90% and the remaining 50% flying LRCAP Range 2.  This is effective in that nearly all of Dan's attacks go against the towns between Osaka--Toyama--Tokyo.  It has helped on Dan's multiple wave attacks.  His 3rd Wave is almost always without fighter escort and IF I can field a decent number of fighters for that attack I get pretty good results.

Castor was correct to bring to my attention the radar upgrade.  Though I have so-so pilots I am not getting bounced as often.

Vettim mentions a discussion of victory conditions on Dan's AAR.  This has been my basic fear for the last year.  He has been so fixated on how far down he was, then getting even, and now way ahead that I fear he won't try to finish me off.  He will just rely on his strategic bombers, sit back, and wait for the clock to run out.  That thought drives me nuts.  I am playing to win.  Even when I have lost I play to win.

Just witness events in about 4-6 weeks of gametime...
 

 

[castor troy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

You guys have no idea how fun it is for me to wake up, check the AAR and find that it has gone up 50-60 hits since I going to bed.  It is fun to know that a lot of people are enjoying my impending doom. 

TRUST ME--you will be rewarded with one heck of a swan song at the end of 1944! 

As to Bigbaba's question regarding CAP over Japan.  I should note that most of my army fighters are now back down to terrible experience.  Most are in the 50s now.  Only way to counter that is with numbers over the target.  I have about 50% of my fighters flying CAP 90% and the remaining 50% flying LRCAP Range 2.  This is effective in that nearly all of Dan's attacks go against the towns between Osaka--Toyama--Tokyo.  It has helped on Dan's multiple wave attacks.  His 3rd Wave is almost always without fighter escort and IF I can field a decent number of fighters for that attack I get pretty good results.

Castor was correct to bring to my attention the radar upgrade.  Though I have so-so pilots I am not getting bounced as often.

Vettim mentions a discussion of victory conditions on Dan's AAR.  This has been my basic fear for the last year.  He has been so fixated on how far down he was, then getting even, and now way ahead that I fear he won't try to finish me off.  He will just rely on his strategic bombers, sit back, and wait for the clock to run out.  That thought drives me nuts.  I am playing to win.  Even when I have lost I play to win.

Just witness events in about 4-6 weeks of gametime...

John,

you can´t win anymore! [;)][:'(]

Seriously, the question of winning at this stage of the game can IMO only be asked in how does the situation look like in mid 45. Is it better for the Japanese than real life - then I would say YOU won, is it the same - then I would say it´s a DRAW, is it worse than in real life or is it a totally hopeless situation earlier than in real life - then I would say DAN won.

For me, the autovictory by points is nice, but not what should determine who wins. Of course the pure feeling who really won can only be agreed by the two players themselve I guess (with some feedback from the AAR contributors), this shouldn´t be a problem with someone that has played you for months/years and therefore was an honorable opponent.

Even if Dan sits back and doesn´t do much more than bombing Japan, if he succeeds in more or less totally destroying Japan´s industrial potential then IMO he won, no matter if you still hold the Philipines for example, or the Solomons, or some Pacific atolls. If your industrial output is down to 15-20% then who really cares if you hold Formosa? If you only see 2 out of 100 merchants return to Japan after being sent into the SRA to pick up oil/resources/supply then who cares if you still own Borneo?

You did a very good job in this campaign, hats off Sir, but IMO at the moment you´re struggling to avoid defeat. Why? Becasue the B-29, B-24, P-38 and P-51 are more and more bringing Dan into a war winning position.

[John 3rd]

Of COURSE I can win!  There will be no defeatist talk around this AAR!  We have successfully lulled the enemy into THINKING he is winning.  BANZAI!!!  [:D][8D][:D]

Perhaps I am still suffering from Victory Disease?!! 

I concur with your thinking but I want to see the epic landings and truly get BEATEN by American strength of arms--not bombers dropping zillions of bombs onto Japan.  I want to still be around to see the mushroom clouds over Japan.  Now THERE is a sad thought...

Furouka-Go is a plan of desperate brilliance.  No one in their right mind would even contemplate this idea.  Just think of Hitler's position in France collapsing in July 1944 and he was already looking at a counter stroke at some place called the Ardennes.  Of course, OUR plan is far better and will--CERTAINLY--succeed where Hitler's didn't work out so well...

[Mistmatz]

A game of this proportion is a completely different category.

After thousands of hours of gameplay, thinking about the game, e-mailing back and forth, experiencing moments of biggest joy and utter defeat you either win both or you loose both.

Personally I think you're both winners. [:)]

[John 3rd]

Ahhhhhhhhhh....

Feel like we need a group hug!

Thanks though.

Just got a turn from Dan so will run it and see if there are any good screenshots within it.

[JeffroK]

I want a thread locked to John & Dan so we can have WAG's to the target of his push.

My guess is ........................................

[dekwik]

Keep on fighting John. IMO a good Japan player doesn't concede until Tokyo is a green base. Even if it ends as a smoking ruin, if it's a Japanese smoking ruin you still win in my book
BANZAI!!

[John 3rd]

THAT IS THE RIGHT SPIRIT!  We are--after all--Samurai. 

To quote someone----"You can pry it from my cold, dead hands!"

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I want a thread locked to John & Dan so we can have WAG's to the target of his push.

My guess is ........................................

How bout we take reader's bets and then--after careful review--I will make the announcement??!! That could actually be fun! Many of you have been long term readers. How well do you know the author of this AAR?

Lurkers--please come up from the muck--and place your bet.

WHERE do you think Japan's Operation Downfall is going???

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

ORIGINAL: JeffK

I want a thread locked to John & Dan so we can have WAG's to the target of his push.

My guess is ........................................

How bout we take reader's bets and then--after careful review--I will make the announcement??!! That could actually be fun! Many of you have been long term readers. How well do you know the author of this AAR?

Lurkers--please come up from the muck--and place your bet.

WHERE do you think Japan's Operation Downfall is going???

Ceylon.

A. Can only be retaken by amph assualt (i.e., Dan can't march there)
B. Completely cuts off Dan's SEAC offensive from their supply hub
C. Away from the huge USE CV fleet which could only intervene by either running the gauntlet through a huge zone of Japanese influence or by taking such a long tedious route as to arrive too late. Even if the LBA in the CENTPAC and SRA does not sink the USN carriers, it will dissipate the air wings. If Dan were to try to force the issue by bringing a bunch of CVE with VR sq, they again would slow the force down to the point where they would arrive too late.
D. The KB has a much better chance of defeating the RN than the USN
E. These bases are likely lightly garrisoned by REMF as the forward lines are far to the east of here now
F. Far away from the most likely points where Dan has his AV Support concentrated = minimal LBA interference
G. Can be attacked by a more stealthy route along the left map edge
E. Unlike other options, will force Dan to reverse course because if he doesn't he will have a million starving troops very quickly

I say this honestly knowing nothing about Dan's dispositions at these bases. For all I know, there are ten Divisions each at Trico and Colombo or there may be two BF's at each base. I really have no idea.

Assuming SGT Schultz mode - I KNOW NOTHING! NOTHING AT ALL

[John 3rd]

One vote for Ceylon!

[Mad66]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

One vote for Ceylon!

Make that two.

[Nemo121]

Where do we think you're going OR where do we think you should go?
 
 
I don't think you'll go for Ceylon as the Allies can just ignore you if you do... There are two airbases, they can gain aerial superiority and suppress two airbases easily enough if they want and your ground troops will be trapped.
 
India is something I think you'd like to go for. I think it is less achievable than you might think but I'm sure tis a glittering prize. The question really comes down to what you have available. I'm assuming you have about 1500 to 2000 AV in Java which escaped from Malaysia and rebuilt. IMO that's not sufficient to do more than fortify Java and northern Borneo and unless you can free 4,000+ AV you shouldn't go into India. Do I think you could free 4,000+ AV. Yes and under those circumstances India becomes somewhat doable.
 

With what you have available that readers are aware of the best you can do is take Burma out of the reckoning but I think that's still a bit of a reach too far for you unless combined with a serious resource bombing campaign of Malaysia to NECESSITATE sea resupply of Malaysia past Burma.
 
 
Basically though, it all depends on the land forces you have freed up.
 
1000 to 1500 AV makes Ceylon and Burma possible ( Ceylon would definitely not be a good choice here ).
 
4000 to 5000 AV makes India possible.