ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns
ORIGINAL: witpqs
I saw the exchange. I then saw the information you presented, and it simply has too many assumptions in it.
I only made assumptions about the Coral Sea battle, and that was because hard data about the strike is hard to find. But I did post further info that cleared up some of those original assumptions. So what we’re left with is this:
Fact: 69 Japanese planes were in the strike package.
Fact: 27 of these planes were lost.
Fact: 4 of these 27 were lost to SBDs, regular Wildcat CAP played no role in shoot downs because they were out of position.
Fact: That leaves 23 that were flak losses.
So the only thing left we don’t know for a fact is how many of the 69 airframes were zeros. But even if we assume none were zeros and all 69 were strike aircraft, 23 out of 69 is a loss rate of 33%, well within the 30%-60% estimate I gave.
Of course I seriously doubt none of the 69 were zeros, so it was probably closer to 50% of the strike airframes being destroyed by flak. But I freely admit that is an assumption based on an educated guess.
However, nothing above is subjective opinion, it is all based on the actual numbers historically involved in the fight. And more than backs up what I said originally.
Jim
So to set the record straight concerning the events surrounding the Japanese attack of May 8, 1942
per Lundstrom's First Team -
There were
69 Japanese aircraft
- 18 Zeros
- 33 Dive Bombers (DB)
- 18 Torpedo Bombers (TP)
Summary of Kills -
p250 - F4F downs 1 TP
p251 - SBD's down 2 TP (SBD's were on Anti Torpedo Patrol and not assigned to CAP but participated as such)
p252 - Yorktown AA downs 2 TP post drop
p253 - SBD downs 1 TP
p253 - Lex AA downs 1 TP
p257 - Lex AA downs 1 DB, damages several others
p257 - F4F downs 1 DB
p258 - F4F downs 1 DB
p260 - Lex AA downs 1 SDB (not counted in below subtotals)
p260 - SBDs downs 2TP, 1 DB
p261 - F4F downs 1 TP, 1 DB
Subtotals so far -
F4F - 2 TP, 3 DB
SBD - 5 TP, 1 DB
AA - 2 TP, 1DB
SubTotal - 9 TP, 5 DB
Strikes now return to Japanese carriers and here the record is open to interpretation.
p277 - Japanese sent Shokaku away thus leaving a single flight deck to land returning strike aircraft.
p277 - Japanese made the consicious decision to ditch 1 Zero, 5 DB and 1 TP because they did not want to tie up Zuikaku Flight Deck with damaged aircraft. (1 additional) Zero diverted to Deb. Isl. Presumably had Shokaku been around they could have recovered these damaged planes.
Now how these aircraft were damaged is open to interpretation - lets attribute 1/2 to AA so 3 DB and 1 TP because CAP did damage some returning bombers.
So additional Subtotals (Damaged then Ditched) -
A2A - 2 Zeros, 2 DB
AA - 3 DB, 1 TP
Subtotal - 2 Zeros, 5 DB, 1 TP
Loss Grand Totals-
2 Zeros, 10 DB, 10 TP
Of these AA "likely" accounted for 4 DB and 3 TP....but definitely accounted for 3 aircraft (and one friendly)
7 aircraft out of 51 Attack planes = 14%
EDIT:
p278 After landing the japanese pushed an additional 3 Zeros, 4 DB and 5 TP that were damaged over the side...so using our above assumption of AA we will add an additional 2 DB and 3 TP to the AA losses.
so 12 out of 51 attack planes = 24% lost to AA of which 3 were definite kills and 9 were damaged & written off...