Volley fire casualties

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Jim D Burns
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Volley fire casualties

Post by Jim D Burns »

I saw this posted in an AAR thread and thought I’d start a topic for discussion on it out here. I think the range multipliers ericbabe says are used to determine casualties are far too effective for Napoleonic warfare. Hits in combat were far less than those achieved during target practice.
It is around 100 yards per hex at brigade level. Infantry are assumed to have some attached artillery, and so do get a reduced artillery range factored into their base combat statistics -- so artillery at range 4 have a base 100% damage whereas infantry have only 12% at that range.

A second point: as we do in all our detailed combat models, the first few hexes in the range table are considered to be closer than center-to-center considerations might indicate: think of it as the troops being located nearer to the edge of the hex, perhaps. We do this simply because we want range 1 to correspond to "close musket" range and range 2 to "mid-far musket range."

The Prussian army of the period did a test in which many men fired muskets at paper targets the size of infantry in line formation at various ranges. Their results were:

225 yards: 25% hits
150 yards: 40% hits
75 yards: 60% hits
50 yards: "devastating"... near 100%

For an infantry brigade, our first four hexes, the range multiplier to damage is:
1 hex = musket close range, 50 yards: 100%
2 hexes = roughly 100 yards: 50%
3 hexes = roughly 200 yards: 25%
4 hexes = roughly 300 yards: 12%

If the closest we allowed two brigades to get were capped at 100 yards, then they'd never be able to close to the decisive musket ranges.

Go to this site and click on the option for target practice and accuracy tests:

http://www.napolun.com/mirror/napoleoni ... atmuskets2

So at 160 yards the rough average was 50% hits scored and at 320 yards that rate is cut in half. Reading further on you’ll see that hits in combat were far less than those achieved in target practice, so I think it is wrong to base damage percentages on target practice scores.

The bullet points noted on the site add weight to the argument casualties being caused in game are probably too high.
• - According to R. Henegan the British infantry at Vittoria fired on average 459 rounds for 1 French casualty. (Henegan - "Seven Years' Campaigning in the Peninsula and the Netherlands", pp 344-345)
• - Napier witnessed volleys fired by British infantry (in Spain) where out of 300 musketballs fired none hit the target.
• - At Vittoria, the British infantry had on average 1 hit in 459 shots fired. I assume that the ratio for French infantry was lower, as they had much less training.
• - Hughes calculated for Albuera, for several volleys at 100 yards the British achieved 5 % ratio of casualties.
• - During one of the battles of the Revolutionary Wars, General Duhesme found his battalion firing at Austrian battalion at 100 paces. It was a lengthy firefight and Duhesme expected heavy casualties, he was however very surprised, there were only 3-4 men hit.
• - In 1813 at Gohrde, 66 French infantrymen fired at 60-80 paces at Germans hiting 27 Hannoverians and Bremen-Verden (40 % hits). In this case the count is only for one volley at close range.
• - In 1813 at Dennewitz, a single squadron of Prussian Brandenburg Dragoons attacked a French battalion formed in square. The infantry delivered volley at 30 paces killing 23 horses and 7 men, and wounding 18 horses and 21 men. It seems poor accuracy but the horse could take several bullets before falling dead. The number of hits was probably higher than actual casualties. Eighty dragoons were untouched by the musketry. Cavalrymen were smaller targets than horses, and they ducked under fire. It made them even smaller targets.
• - Mark Adkin calculated the effectiveness of muskets at Waterloo. He wrote that in the prolonged fighting for Hougoumont "it took 224 French musket shots to secure a hit. This is not such a poor performance as it seems. Most defenders (Germans and British) were behind cover of some sort for much of the time, if only a hedge or a tree. The majority were behind brick walls."
• - General Gassendi of the French army calculated that only 1 shot in 3.000 resulted in casulty.
• - According to Guibert only 0.2 % of all shots hit the target. All shots means all shots, not only the battalion salvos at close range repeatedly described in many memoirs. Up to 15-25 % % of all shots were misfires, many troops fired at too long distance, some of the lightly wounded went uncounted, part of ammunition nominally fired was thrown away by soldiers etc. etc.
(In 1876 in the Battle of Rosebud, Crook's troops, 43 officers and 1,000 other ranks armed with modern carbines and rifles, repulsed several charges made by 800 mounted Sioux warriors. The Indians attacked with "an enthusiasm for battle seldom seen." (- Gregory Michno) The battle raged for six hours, the soldiers had expended 25,000 rounds of ammunition, the Indian lost 102 killed and wounded. It gives a rate of 250 rounds/1 casualty.

Jim
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Erik Rutins
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RE: Volley fire casualties

Post by Erik Rutins »

Keep in mind that this is just the base weapon multiplier you're talking about. There are a lot of other factors, including some randoms, that influence that. What you'll often see is a good first volley, then a significant drop off in effectiveness as the battle continues, especially as smoke builds up.
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ericbabe
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RE: Volley fire casualties

Post by ericbabe »

I think you might be misunderstanding the data tables I posted.  I very carefully specified that the percentages in the Prussian table were hit percentages, but the percentages in our range tables are damage multipliers -- they are *not* presumed to be bullet hit percentages.  We get base damage numbers by analyzing many battle casualty results, estimating how many brigades were in the battle, how long the battles were engaged, how many COG-equivalent brigade-volleys were in the battle, then we use some estimates by Nosworthy on the "average" range of engagement for a Napoleonic battle, then we normalize and -- voila -- we get the base damage numbers.  These are then modified by range according to the Prussian test data that I found in Chandler.  After all this, we played a bunch of battles, took average casualty percentages, compared them to the average casualty percentage of a Napoleonic battle, and slightly modified them so that the expected casualties in a COG battle should approach the average casualties in a Napoleonic battle.
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Jim D Burns
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RE: Volley fire casualties

Post by Jim D Burns »

ORIGINAL: ericbabe
I think you might be misunderstanding the data tables I posted.  I very carefully specified that the percentages in the Prussian table were hit percentages, but the percentages in our range tables are damage multipliers -- they are *not* presumed to be bullet hit percentages.  We get base damage numbers by analyzing many battle casualty results, estimating how many brigades were in the battle, how long the battles were engaged, how many COG-equivalent brigade-volleys were in the battle, then we use some estimates by Nosworthy on the "average" range of engagement for a Napoleonic battle, then we normalize and -- voila -- we get the base damage numbers.  These are then modified by range according to the Prussian test data that I found in Chandler.  After all this, we played a bunch of battles, took average casualty percentages, compared them to the average casualty percentage of a Napoleonic battle, and slightly modified them so that the expected casualties in a COG battle should approach the average casualties in a Napoleonic battle.

I figured it was probably more complex than that, but sitting around drooling while I wait for the physical shipment to become available leaves me pondering over the workings of the game. Hurry up Erik, get that order ability ready. [:D]

Jim
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