The First Team: Take Two!

[John 3rd]

Maybe they put Hermes on Trucks or railcars and placed it in a lake there?  Could be a move to surprise us and take us off our game...
 

[John 3rd]

Over the day our 2x2 Team got in 3 turns.  For us--particularly on a Monday--that is impressive.  The turns uuhhhh didn't go quite as planned.

The Bay of Bengal
The Royal Navy has put in several appearances in the CENTER of the Bay of Bengal.  On the 24th a pair of CLs sank an AK and on the 25th a STF of 3 CL and 4 DD did the same hitting a convoy and damaging 1 PG and 6 AK (3 Seriously).

Viza
The AF construction rolls forward quite quickly.  There have been heavy air battles with planes attacking from Hyderabad and Madras. 

24th
On the 24th 42 Zero fought 42 P-40, 29 B-17, and 23 Bombers.  The Zeros did well but the bombers got through and destroyed a number of them on the ground.  Losses for the day were:  13 Fighters (8 Zero/5 Oscar) and 2 Recon with 15 P-40 and 3 Bombers falling.  We took 417 Casualties and the AF was hit 18 times.

25th
This turn saw 46 Zero take to the skies against a raid of 27 Buffalo and 50 Bombers.  Buffalos?  Yummmmm....  The Zeros have an excellent day shooting down 17 Buf and 14 Brit and Dutch Bombers.  The Japanese lose 2 Zero and 1 Recon, 233 Cas, and the AF was hit only 7 times.

CarDiv2
Yamaguchi places himself only two hexes from Columbo and 4 hexes from Trincomalee on the 24th and NOTHING happens.  There are NO FIGHTERS over the bases and weather was excellent.  I...was...upset... 

New Zealand
Wellington
My troops reach the town and bombardit to find the beat-up Cav Brigade, another Inf Brig, the Fortress, and Base Force.  I have South Seas Force, 9th Ind Brigade, and an Engineering Reg present.  A strong Naval Guard and Tone Heavy Gun unit are on the way to join them.  Against what is present I can TAKE this town!  I am dead certain of it.

Hamilton
City falls to an SNLF on the 23rd.  A Construction Btn and small Base Force are now present there.

Gisbome
I have the 14th Army HQ landing as well as another Special Base Force.  The AF is now Sz-3 and approaching 4.  There are over 25,000 supply with another 15,000 unloading.  Things look good...

KB
One the SAME day that Yamaguchi could have sunk ships at Ceylon, Adm Nagumo finds himself 3 hexes from Sydney and undetected.  Only 6 Buffalo fly CAP over the harbor that has at least 15-20 ships in it (and I would wager Repulse).  His orders are for a full strength harbor strike with everything his 4 CV have.  What do they do?  NOTHING!  [:@][:o][:@]  No bad weather and nothing in the air to stop the strike.  I about threw the computer on the floor.

To add insult into injury, the next day (25th) CV Akagi decides on its own to launch a strike of 26 Zero, 19 Val, and 29 Kate.  Where there was NOTHING the previous day, now 34 Buffalo/Brewsters and 48 P-40 meet the incoming strike.  I expect to lose ALL of them.  Luckily is isn't a disaster it just sucks!  The Allies shot down 11 Zero, 4 Val, and 10 Kate for 17 Fighters and a MSW.

This is what motivates the following email I just sent to Brad:

My Email was entitled:  Screw the Bastards!

Did that catch your attention for a headline?

OK.  After last turn and this turn I am pissed.

Let us get serious: 

Bay of Bengal
1.  They are pretty crafty with the risks they are taking in the Bay of Bengal.  I assumed you set the Bettys onto search and naval attack.  I did that and shifted the bombers a little bit.  I pulled one Sentai of Bombers and a beat-up Oscar Sentai to Moulmein from Magwe.  I replaced them with a Daitai and Chutai of Betty.  All Betty on the same at Rangoon.

2.  The CVs move east and we'll see if they enter into strike range...

India
1.  There are ten units at Hyderabad and Cuttack.  Obviously their stand will be at each location.  I say move towards Cuttack, knock the troops back from that river and move into the crossroads.

2.  I would send EVERYTHING else north towards Rainpur (Sp??).  Blast them out of there.  Whichever way the troops retreat from there then go the opposite way.  We MUST create some panic on there side. 

3.  Don't forget the Paratroopers in Magwe.  Recon around and find a target.  We should have enough Tinas now to really fly some distance if needed. 

4.  You have another Inf Div and Engineers at Viza.  I would use them as an exploitation force.  You should have a good diea of which way to reinforce success within a few days.

New Zealand
1.  I am loading 56th ID for Gisbome right now.

2.  Without a major change we can take the North Island.  I am certain of that now.  The KB will move to become a Cover Force protecting NZ while this happens.  When I get CarDiv1 back then there will be some serious hunting and search for battle.

3.  Will make my first real attack on Wellington in 2-3 days.

Fleet
1.  I looked around and this is what I think for movement.  I will pull Hiryu/Soryu/Zuiho/Shoho/Ryujo and the TF that is centered around CarDiv2. 

2.  ANY 5,000 range DD I need for help over there.

3.  Could I grab CA Chokai?  I've got 4 CA about the enter the yards in Japan and Shanghai.

Akagi
She bore the brunt of that terrible attack at Sydney.  I've got the Kates and Zeros to replace her losses but I will need help changing them out.  Since I have a de facto training program at New Zealand right now, I will probably send her Vals there for training purposes.

This is a lot of stuff.  Thoughts???

This long entry should give the readers plenty to comment on...

[2ndACR]

Someone forgot to slay the goat and offer up the kid to the dice gods.[:'(]

[John 3rd]

I thought that ONLY applied to Palembang and other Resource Centers!  [:'(]

I only have one more son so I'd better be careful with where and when...

[John 3rd]

The Invasion is truly moving along. Here is what Brad has done in troops deployments and Enemy Units strength that we know of:

[John 3rd]

Here is the same day with New Zealand:

[ny59giants]

What are the plans for the Burmese Air Force?? Magwe should be busy with Helen's and Zeros.

Mini-KB may need to run in to the full ocean hex just SW of Viza and hit the LCUs to the west to open up the push towards Madras. Hopefully, this can be timed with a ground assault. I would be using Oscars ove Viza for now and Zeros in Burma due to range issues.

Raipur should have all TKs going there, IMO. Time for Operation Cobra!! [:D]  There are 3 exits from this base. The Allies cannot cover them all.

[John 3rd]

There is a growing sense of frustration within the Japanese Camp over the Allies ability to materialize seemingly endless numbers of troops as the Japanese Thrusts move out to threaten India. I have been studying the map for quite a while and have created this screenshot with a bunch of information in it.

Let's work from the known situation:

Eastern Thrust
There are now 10 units in Cuttack and a river to cross. The Japanese have 3 Inf Div plus strong support on the west coast of the river. I recommend that we SIT there and pull an Inf Div and Tank Regiment back to throw into the western attack. Make THEM attack across that river as we try to breakthrough elsewhere.

Northern Thrust
Agree with Michael's Cobra concept. If we can get there before the enemy is TOO dug in then we breakout right there.

Western Thrust
The Allies are weakest to the west. They are obviously pulling troops from India's non-threatened coast. If Brad pulls the troops I've detailed in the screenshot from Viza he can immediately double the strength of the assault. There is currently ONLY an Indian Inf Div and Artillery unit confronting two full strength Jap Inf Div. We will only have a day or two before the strong 7th Armored Brigade (hex west of Japanese) and Bombay District brigade move in to strengthen the defense.

I say hit them now with everything we can. I could move CarDiv2 close enough to attack and since Viza just went to Sz-3 AF we could move in 60 bombers to hit that hex as well. Shock Attack it to drive the enemy back and then look at going for Hyderabad while the Viza and Eastern Thrust reinforcements move in to help. At that point drive on Madras...

Bay of Bengal Reinforcements
The 21st and 23rd Mixed Brigades are just north of Port Blair. There is also a small Base Force. These units make 35,000 men that could be landed elsewhere. If the Allies are pulling from the west coast of India then why not land them at Trivandrum? Might that totally bust things open or should they simply be unloaded at Viza to strengthen the assault? There is a recon of Triv going to happen tomorrow so maybe we'll see what is present. I'll wager 1 unit or NOTHING.

Distant Reinforcements
The 6th TK Regiment is at Palembang. I am not sure as to why but it should be used. There are a TON of HQ units at Singapore! It would be good to move Southern Area Army, an Air Flotilla, and an Air Division from there to add strong support and coordination elements to the attack.

Here is the screenshot:

[Nemo121]

I think your problem is that your central position has invited you to dissipate your forces. Since the defender is always stronger this dissipation of your forces actually serves the defender FAR better than you. Rather than allowing you to split the defending forces such that they cannot match your forces along any axis you are, rather, allowing them to face much weakened forces along multiple axes with the end result that if they refuse combat for long enough they should be able to scrape together sufficient defenders to hold each of your thrusts.

Doctrinally speaking they should then identify one of your thrusts, concentrate their strategic reserve against that thrust and drive it back on Vizgatapam, capturing it and cutting all your units off from their supply point.
 
 
Your saving graces here are:
a) that your opponents aren't showing a great grasp of the strategic situation insofar as they are abandoning the coastal bases and practically inviting the dislocation of their entire Western front ( an extremely sub-optimal choice )
 
b) they don't seem to be capable of getting within your OODA cycle .
 
c) it would appear that even if they could get within your OODA cycle that they wouldn't seek to counter-concentrate and push on your logistical base. Why do I say this? Simple, they are focussing on holding each of your three thrusts as soon as possible when, in reality, what they SHOULD be doing is tempting you to advance north and west as far as possible ( without losing Madras ) before slashing across the river from Cutack. If they did this their forces would be much closer to your logistical base ( Vizgapatam ) and they would be able to take it before you could re-orient and send forces from the interior to its rescue.
 
With the fall of Vizgapatam your Indian invasion would falter. However it is clear from the strategic situation that they are attempting to hold you as close to Vizgapatam as possible on all 3 axes and thus it appears that this ( the best strategic solution to the problem your invasion presents ) hasn't occurred to them.
 
 
I think your priority right now must be to dislocate the enemy line to your west such that you can re-orient your centre of mass and drive in a north-eastward direction. IOW I'm talking about changing your strategic direction so that your direction of travel is more clearly defined and there is less temptation to throw away the advantages of a central position in a dissolute dispersion of force which invites defeat in detail --- this is currently in danger of/the process of happening.

[John 3rd]

Nemo--I was truly hoping you would jump into this and contribute.  Thanks for doing so.  Your points are sound and quite cogent as always.  As said in the earlier entry I concur that we should blast them to the west and open things up...

Brad what might you think of that?

[ny59giants]

I agree with Nemo's idea. I hope you are moving mini-KB to the full sea hex one hex SW of Viza and have your DB & TB assigned to hit those troops holding up behind behind twin river lines along with whatever bombers you have at Viza. The Burmese Air Force would hit the troops at Cuttack to give the impression that you are still going there.

Meanwhile, troops would continue to move into Raipur. I would not send the 2 Bde to the extreme SW corner and land there. I would land at Viza and be your exploitation forces along with your TK Rgt.

Where are your paratroopers?? Hopefully some have landed at Viza.

[John 3rd]

Hey Michael.  I was on the phone when you called a bit ago.  Call me at 11pm your time!  

The Paras are at Magwe, tan, rested and ready!  We now have almost 100 Tina for a long-range drop and the rest of the Transports are available whenever needed.
 

[John 3rd]

We have sent the turn and Brad is moving units from the east to the west as well as units at Viza.  He had a great idea to divide one of the Inf Div so it doesn't look like we're shifting troops.  We will attack hex 21,20 with CarDiv2 aircraft and some bombers from Viza.  I've ordered my 3 CAs with CarDiv2 to hit the 7th Armored on the coast (hex 20,20) as well. 

Will let Brad explain more...
  

[veji1]

Agree with Nemo, why did you divide your troops in grossly 3 equal stacks ?

You should have a stack of 1500 AV as the main thrust and just go forward, The best way being i think through Raipur to cut India in half...

[modrow]

Nemo,

excellent and very instructive post. Can you explain a bit in how far the OODA loop is applicable to teams though ? I always thought it relates at least mainly to single decision makers.

Thanks

Hartwig

[Canoerebel]

If Allied troops seem to be materializing out of thin air, the Allies must be air transporting Chinese units.  The base of originin could be Lashio, or perhaps further back into China.  But how long have they been doing so?  The units might be just weak elements, but of course you can't evaluate until you close with them and attack.  

While you're a bit flummoxed by this cobbled-together and seemingly organized defense, remember that the Allies are probably in a state of panic.  Use your paratroops to add to that panic. Also, if your main objective is to cut off the Allied troops in Burma/NE India, consider landing at Chittagong or Cox's Bazaar instead of Trivandrum.  This puts troops right where you need them and creates a new front where your real effort is headed.  Also, is it possible to mount an attack with your units already on the Burma front? 

[Nemo121]

All conflict is about making the right decisions in a timely fashion and then implementing them sufficiently quickly in a sufficiently competent manner to beat one's opponent(s).

This simple truth holds true whether you are 1 person playing 1 person or 10 vs 10 or whatever.
 
 
If one team can Observe the situation, quickly taking in the important information without being distracted by irrelevancies, Orient on the salient features concentrating most of their analysis on these factors without neglecting the contributing issues which may, at first glance appear minor or unrelated, Decide on a course of action to be followed and then put that course of action into ACTion more quickly and more effectively than the other team then they will gain victory.
 
One other key point in teams is that good communication reduces friction and thus increases the SPEED and ACCURACY of the OOD phase and thus tends to improve the speed and quality of the A phase.
 
 
 
John 3rd,
I think it is utterly crucial that you land west of Madras. Adding 1 division to your drive towards Madras will have FAR less impact than the same number of troops landing to the west of Madras, dislocating the enemy's front and requiring them to engage in an OODA cycle.

Don't forget that simply increasing pressure along an extant front doesn't really require another major OODA cycle, it just requires the enemy to feed in a few more troops to hold you "in the same old place, in the same old way". Using the same number of troops to open up a NEW front requires the enemy to engage in a completely new OODA situation ( what I often refer to in my AARs as "complicating their operational (or strategic ) situation" ) replete with all of the opportunities for gross miscalculation and inaction inherent in any OODA cycle.
 
Most humans are good at handling between 3 to 5 subordinates or issues at one time. Once they go beyond this number they tend to fall back on "schema" ( which are best defined as the brain's rules of thumb --- these rules of thumb are generic and are applied without taking into account the specifics of the situation ). These schema are only generally ( not specifically ) matched to the current situation and will thus only give approximately or superficially correct responses.
 
What you SHOULD be seeking to do is complicate the enemy's strategic situation such that they get overloaded, fall back on schema ( knee-jerk reactions etc ) and opt out of detailed analsysis of the situation. If you do that their ACTions will become less appropriate, their situation deteriorate and as it deteriorates they will tend to rely more and more on schema thus causing a logarithmic effect to their nascent ineffectuality.
 
The key is that someone can analyse 3 situations clearly and perfectly and arrive at good answers to them all. Feeding more troops into a current front changes one of the situations a little but doesn't create a NEW situation. As such it doesn't overload the opponent and that opponent can still cope ( he still only has 3 problems to solve albeit that problem 3 might now be a bit bigger than it used to be ).
 
By opening a new front or two you might be able to give your opponent 5 problems to solve. This overloads them and either they ignore 1 or 2 problems and deal effectively with 3 OR they start giving only superficial responses to all 5. No matter which they do inappropriate responses will create more problems so that the number of problems increases and their analysis time decreases.
 
Eventually things can get so bad that people have breakdowns... This is routinely seen in disasters where up to 1/3rd of people actively embark on tasks which have NO survival benefit or actively hinder survival - e.g. People packing suitcases in their cabins while those cabins flood with water or trying to get change out of a vending machine while the ship is tilting onto its side ready to capsize etc ( both cases which were noted on a ferry disaster within the past ten years or so ).
 
It is no surprise that the single biggest determinant of who survives survivable plane crashes and ferry sinkings is NOT where the passenger sat or anything like that BUT whether or not the passenger rehearsed ( in their mind ) their escape route BEFORE the emergency started. If they rehearsed it then when their mind gets overloaded ( when the plane hits or water starts entering the ferry ) they fall back on a MUCH more appropriate schema than the other passengers and thus tend to survive.
 
There are of course some outliers who are able to simply lower the mental shutters to distraction and think on the fly by focussing on only the most salient issues to avoid becoming overwhelmed but they are pretty rare ---- and training helps increase this tendency by giving people "checklists" etc to run through ( a checklist is just a fancy, pre-determinedly appropriate schema when you look at it so it still holds true with checklists ).
 
Anyways, hope that helps clear it up a little.

[Canoerebel]

Hmmm, interesting thoughts...but I would have reservations about landing south of Madras (folks keep saying "west," but I think they mean true south, like Trivandrum).  My thoughts:
 
1)  By landing that far afield you disperse your forces and open a new point of attack for the RN and air.  You'll have to protect the base and move out, and your moves may not coordinate nicely with your main objective (as I understand it) of cutting off the Allied army in Burma.  This reminds me of my multiple amphibious assaults in Malaya where I gained surprise and stressed you out, but my dispersion also weakened my main effort.
 
2)  I think you can use your paratroops to assault vacant cities to create the sort of crisis Nemo is referring to.  Take some cities and threat to isolate the Allies in Burma.
 
3)  I'm not 100% positive about landing at Chittagong or Cox's Bazaar at this point - you might be better off landing all reinforcements at Viz where they can move quickly to the most advantageous point.
 
4)  If you can establish a secure open road between Viz and Burma, it also offers a safe route of retreat when and if that need should arise (hopefully many, many months down the road, but sooner if necessary).
 
Decisions, decisions!  I can't wait to see what you guys do.

[Cap Mandrake]

Interesting situation:

Seems to me unless you cut off the rail line North of the Ganges, no great strategic purpose will have been served..unless causing the Allies to soil their trousers was the goal.

If the rail line remains in Allied control to Karachi, then Allied HQ's in Northeastern India will draw supply via the land route and you will need carriers to get supplies into Viz.

The Allied response should be to hold the shoulders and slow down or harry your advance until they can assemble a force to save at least one rail line.

You will need as much as you can forward to achieve the decisive blow ASAP. I can't believe they have anything with offensive punch on your flanks right now.

[Nemo121]

The ONLY goal for an invasion of India should be to conquer all of India. At a push you might settle for allowing the enemy a foothold at Karachi as per some HRs.
 
If you invade India for any other reason ( e.g. cutting off Burma ) then it is the acme of miscalculation.