Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

Boy, ohhhh Boy we need just one more day. Forecast is for overcast skies...

[John 3rd]

The last set of questions that flaggelent asked:

City Hexes;
sidney & canton seem 2 very different battles, canton had only 3,5K suplies in a screenshot just before the battle which will have been a deciding(? something wrong about that word.) point in the battle. looking at the time left before anything happened after evacuating OZ would you think it would have been possible to lower the OZ supply level enough for a takeover?

i wasn't sure if this was pm material or something for a post, but figured it kinda fits the learning spirit of the AAR, so i put it up here, hope you dont mind/ find it bold of me to do so. thats about it for questions (for now), sorry for my english.. not a real native speaker

Just wanted to add that i absolutely love your next operation and i hope for great succes (what do you estimate it will do to his supply situation??)

  City/Urban battles are something very different to watch and do.   In the Battle for Canton the game will not let me move the troops out no matter what I do.  OK.  They stand and die.  The city has been completely out of supply since the second attack but is truly taking a bite out of the massive Allied Army.  Here are the attacks:

Oct 21st—Allied Deliberate Attack:  1-1 Forts to 8 (4906—3901) Japan  1,497 Cas  38 Guns Allies  9,971 Cas  242 Guns  11 Vehicles

Oct 25th—Allied Deliberate Attack:  1-1 Forts to 7 (didn’t write down AS Values) Japan  2,092 Cas  29 Guns Allies  11,142 Cas  213 Guns  7 Vehicles

Oct 28th—Allied Deliberate Attack:  1-1 Forts to 6 (5904—3109) Japan  1,536 Cas  37 Guns Allies  8,172 Cas  72 Guns  9 Vehicles

The loss in guns is horrific.  My Japanese garrison now has more guns then the Allied Army.  It will not make a difference though and I figure the town will fall about November 5th.

When it came to Sydney and Brisbane my troops were fighting at the end of a long supply tether and were tired.  My BBs were ineffective at doing any mass disruption so I could never really get over the top there.    Here the fight is against a Japanese force that has NO supply yet they still hold against an army that now numbers 335,000+ and has 54 Units within it. 

Regarding question of lowering Australia’s supply, I don’t think there is an easy answer.  The continent was more or less cut off for a year before I reached my final targets.  Truly I do not know how close it was.  That question is better asked for Dan because he was on the other side of that siege.

If you go back and read the Australia War, you will note that I didn’t intend to go as far as I did.  Initially I wanted to grab the NW Aussie towns for a buffer but Dan kept retreating and continued to advance.  The Campaign got bigger and bigger but didn’t really impact the war elsewhere.  Remember that it was 4 Inf Div from the Aussie Campaign that arrived in the nick of time to save Hokkaido.

Crazy stuff…  

Thank you very much for asking these questions.  This is the first time I have been somewhat retrospective of the war and the could of/should have scenarios. 

ALWAYS ask questions.      

[John 3rd]

Land movements are detailed in this shot as well as the ASW TF moving about the area. I left off on the previous page detailing the ASW Fight to the 23rd. Let me pick-up with coverage of October 24-28, 1944:

Oct 24th
LBA ASW 2 Hits
ASW TF No Attacks

Shark hits an AP with 1 TT
I-169 SW of Hainan hits an AK with 3 Shells and 1 Torp

SS Spirella sinks after being damaged a week before.

Oct 25th
LBA ASW 1 Hit
ASW TF 1 Attack

Shark sinks an AK SW of Shanghai
I-17 MISSES BB King George V in the middle og the Bay of Bengal [:o][>:][:o]

Oct 26th
LBA ASW 3 Hits
ASW TF 1 Attack

SS Sunfish is sunk SW of Shanghai

Oct 27th
LBA ASW No Hits
ASW TF 1 Attack

Oct 28th
LBA ASW 1 Hit
ASW TF 3 Attacks

Raton set on Fire SE of Shanghai by 10 DC
Shark heavily damaged East of Shanghai by 16 DC hits

We hope to see some of these SS sink after having been damaged by LBA or ASW TF!

[MrPlow9]

Great work so far, this insane plan just might work! (sorry if i jinxed it by saying that[:D]) I just thought I'd let you know I'm directly blaming you for the procrastination of my university paper that has a due date which is quickly approaching[:)]
Banzai my friend!
MrPlow9

[John 3rd]

I had hoped that Dan and I would get one more in today but it didn't happen. We've reached October 29th. I should know with tomorrow mornings turn if we have managed to slip past Allied Recon. If this is the case, then I will slowly set all the forces into place and plan for D-Day to be about November 5th.

This is my hope for the landing and CV side of the attack:

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: MrPlow9

Great work so far, this insane plan just might work! (sorry if i jinxed it by saying that[:D]) I just thought I'd let you know I'm directly blaming you for the procrastination of my university paper that has a due date which is quickly approaching[:)]
Banzai my friend!
MrPlow9

As a Professor of History I cannot abide by your slacking! I do; however, hope you enjoy the ride that is about to occur...

[FeurerKrieg]

I wouldn't split the CTFs like that - LBA will arrive in 1 day and heavy bombers will get through smaller CAP much easier than a big CAP.

[SierraJuliet]

I've read with interest the strong and continuing arguments for and against splitting up the Japanese CVs but honestly would it still be a John 3rd version of the Japanese KB fighting machine without some adventurous force disposition?

[Nemo121]

Why even make all these raids? If there are no planes or ships at a base and you aren't landing amphibiously at it ( in which case a port attack or CAS attack might be valid ) why are you dispersing your effort? Sure it'll look pretty etc but prettiness didn't win wars.
 
Where are you actually planning to get ashore? I'd suggest landing at least some tanks at Mangalore to help take Bombay ASAP...  It looks like your main force will land at Triv at which point it will be well placed to drive east. If you split your forces like that it might just work but I'd take Mangalore (unless there's loads of forts there which will scupper your shipping ) as a base to drive north.

[SierraJuliet]

Maybe John is emulating the Japanese predisposition for complex operational plans.  It could go horribly wrong but then again it may turn out to be a stunning triumph... for a while at least [:D]

[Bliztk]

When I play the Allies, there is nothing that makes me feel happy that the Japanese doing offensives in China. Those divisions are not guarding Iwo, Saipan, Tinian, Okinawa..... [:)]

Sorry for the hickjacking [:'(]

[FeurerKrieg]

ORIGINAL: Bliztk

When I play the Allies, there is nothing that makes me feel happy that the Japanese doing offensives in China. Those divisions are not guarding Iwo, Saipan, Tinian, Okinawa..... [:)]

Sorry for the hickjacking [:'(]

Really? I suppose if you are confident of a stalemate maybe that would make you happy, but I think if I was Allied I would hate to lose China because then a lot of ground forces are free for Iwo, Saipan etc in late 43 when they are needed there the most. And I think AARs have shown a well planned Japanese attack can succeed in China within the first 1-2 years of the war.

[John 3rd]

OK. The Fleet is in and can begin my move to its opening positions for Downfall.

The whole point of spreading the CVs out is that I will have exactly ONE DAY of non-interference! Banking on that means spreading out to do as much chaos, find targets, and sink ships as possible on DAY ONE! Day Two will see the Northern CV TF unite and the Southern CV TF unite as well. Based on resistance that day will be the decision to unify the entire Fleet together on Day Three.

Hope that makes sense.

[flaggelant]

Thnx for the more than complete answer john, detailed as allways [:)]

as to bomber/fighter opposition, do you expect any at all?
i recall to karachi having a static baseforce in stock games, but otherwise it looks like there would be entirely no aviation support on indian ground? only the soryu TF might encounter some from long range Burma planes

have you thought about raiding the ceylon repair docks (assuming theres something in there?) if there are no planes showing up to fight the KB?

[John 3rd]

MICHAEL????  Can you answer this?  Mike (the Former Retired Economics Minister and personal Therapist for the Emperor) has a solid grasp of this. 

I expect NO RESISTANCE on the first day.  Day Two will bring in very tired 4EB crews who have to make a long flight.  There is the very real possibility that Dan may choose to ignore my attack for the first day or two until he realizes the Invasion Force's scope and scale. 

This is the reason why I have an imbedded Fast Transport TF carrying the 3rd Cavalry Regiment.  This TF will spring ahead and grab Trivandrum so Dan cannot see ANY of the other units I am landing.  Should keep surprise on my side for the ground portion for a few days.  TRULY Hope Triv is empty...  If it isn't then I will make a massed landing to grab it.

 

[Panther Bait]

Are you planning a port strike on Bombay?  Looks like possible shipping sitting in port there.

[John 3rd]

I like that idea.  Could be part of the Day Two Tasking...

Any other ideas along those lines.  That is a darned fine idea I had not thought about...

[Q-Ball]

I would be shocked if there was anything in India other than Static Base Forces and Patrol Planes. With all that warfare in SE Asia, it's a for sure that Dan pulled out everything not nailed down. He probably thinks subs are the only Japs he'll see over there. Doesn't even look like he has patrol planes even, other than Ceylon.

John is right, no opposition. I wouldn't expect much in terms of targets in Bombay harbor though.

I think getting ashore will be easy, and you'll roll Southern India until some Allies show up to stop you.

Most of those towns in Big B, Mangalore, Pangim, Madras, Bombay, do have static base forces though, so you can expect aircraft as soon as he can shuttle them in.

Should be fun! I don't think Dan can starve you out, because you'll capture supply sources, and there are probably huge stockpiles down there as it is.

[John 3rd]

I LIKE that kind of thinking My MOST ESTEEMED PARTNER in warcraft!  I am still buzzing over grabbing Wellington so easily in our game.

Think you are correct.  Just got another turn done and I-48 got that AK it hit the previous turn.  That makes 3 AK for her on this patrol.  The ships sunk carrying troops of the 82nd West Africane Inf Div.  Plan on that WHOLE convoy being sunk within about 5 days.

Had another thought and pulled 4 ships out of the Invasion force:  2 carry 20th Engineering Reg and 2 carry 1st Aviation Reg with about 3,000 supplies.  They will take Addu Atoll when Trivandrum falls.  My Emily can fly to the base and provide real recon and naval search.

[John 3rd]

Just so you can see: