Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[FOW]

I read both AARs so I've not posted for a month or so.

It was mentioned to John in his AAR that the West African Div probably came off the AKs before they sank (before you posted the comments above). He has calmed down now.

I think it's safe to say, with the overwhelming numbers of LCUs you are deploying forward in SEAC/China, that John 'assumed' all the rear area bases in India would be empty.

Won't say any more to preserve both sides operational security.

[stldiver]

I have never posted in either AAR, but have read both for a long time now.

I would recommend you keep those files till the end, then you can show them. Giving out your password now to someone that reads both AAR's and post would, diminish the security and lead to doubt. In addition there has to be a trust here.

It has always been obvious you have no foreknowledge as there are many times prior to this you would have reacted differently.

I enjoy both AAR's and fully recommend save those files till the end. I would say 99% of the people do not doubt your sincerity.

Keep up the good work.

Enjoy.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the comments and notes.  One percent still wonder, though, eh?  That's why people shouldn't question a person's honesty or integrity lightly.  Somebody's always going to have lurking doubts.
 
My email auto-archives go back to March 2008, covering turns all the way back to sometime in early 1943.  I've just finished sending John one turn from each month in 1944 - long enough to prove that my defenses have been in place for far longer than the point where he began considering this plan.  Recent turn files (from this week, so he should still have them) will also show that the West African troops (only a fragment of this unit, by the way) were on the way to Colombo and just happened to be near Trivandrum; and same thing with BB Ramilles; she had just arrived at Bombay and was on the way to Colombo (and thence to Singapore).
 
I'm not concerned about giving away my password to a neutral party if anyone would be interested in resolving any lingering doubts.  I would accept Q-Ball, NYGiants, Miller, or BigB (although I haven't asked them and they might not be interested) as referee, whichever John chooses.

[Historiker]

When I was younger, every time I missed something, I accused someone to have stolen it.

His invasion is planned such a long time that every scratch in his "perfect plan" has to be something unnatural in the first moment. Just imagine the gamble behind his move, it is the last big offensive in the game and if you react correctly, most of his ships won't make it home!
Planning for month means that he is very nervous about it, so be indulgent.

[DW]

I've been following both AARs now, which is why I no longer comment in either.

John did initially harbor some suspicion about a breach in security, but others who also follow both AARs were quick to reply that if such a breech did occur that it didn't happen in your AAR and that there was absolutely no evidence from what you had been writing that you had been tipped off in any way, shape for form.

One poster suggested that the troops he unexpectedly encountered at Trivandrum came to be there more or less as you outlined in your post, and that it was nothing more than unfortunate happenstance for John that they ended up at the base in question.

John, after some reflection, seems to have completely accepted that there was no leak in operational security, and that he was victimized by the fortunes of war and not by any duplicity on your part.

It's my impression, based on comments he made in his AAR, that he now considers the matter closed.

I hope this helps put your mind at ease concerning your opponent.

Now...

What was your pucker factor when all that fire power appeared so deep in your rear area. [:)]

I'm guessing about a 97..... [:D]

[Canoerebel]

I was in awe and complete shock, but actually didn't pucker up much because at first I thought it was probably an elaborate hoax; a turn or two later, as I realized this was the real thing, I already had things arranged so that I think I can stop John (although he'll easily take the a good bit of India before I do so).

Imagine how I'd feel if I hadn't left all those base forces scattered around India, augmented the garrisons at Karachi and Bombay, and strongly fortified Ceylon. If I hadn't I'd have completely puckered up.

Don't get me wrong: I'm worried and scrambling to meet an emergency. But as you'll see from the next post, I think John is already beginning to realize things won't go as he had planned.

[Historiker]

I don't get it anyway what he wants to achieve with this...

[Canoerebel]

11/5/44
 
Each turn takes hours now as the Allies continue the massive rearrangement and orders to get troops, ships, and planes where they're needed and where opportunities have arisen.  This was a pretty good day for the Allies, though there will be some dark days ahead no doubt.
 
Trivandrum:  John is landing in force here:  46th Division, 102 Division, three tank divisions, a tank regiment, and two engineer units.  Part of a West African unit got ashore here before its transports were demolished, so the defensive AV is around 100 or 125.  With 9 forts, they withstood the initial Jap assault, which came off at 1:1 and dropped forts to 8.  I hope I can hold at least one more day, because I've left about 80 good bombers at this base.
 
India on the Ground:  No signs yet that John will land anywhere else (thank goodness).  Once he takes Trivandrum his armored units can scoot around all over interior India, with just a bump in the road here and there (Madras, Mangalore, and Pangim).  Eventually I'll have reinforcements in place in northern India, but it will take awhile.  Right now my focus is on doing all I can to secure Karachi, probably Bombay, and certainly Calcutta; I'm prepared to lose Madras, Pangim, Mangalore, and other lightly defended cities.  The air transport network has already begun: planes at Singapore have carried most of Brit 251st Brigade to Victoria Point; transports there willl carry them to Akyab; transports there will then move them to someplace like Calcutta.  It took just a day to move nearly all of this unit out of Singapore, so tomorrow the Sing transports will start an American regiment on the same route.  Some transports at Singapore (I only have a few at the moment) are loading part of 19th Indian Division, which will hug the coast and move toward Diamond Harbor under cover of LBA.  The roster of Jap carriers here continues to grow:  Akagi, Kaga, Shokaku, Chitose, Taiyo, Taiho, Ryuho, Soryu...it's certainly everything he has.
 
India in the Air:  This is certainly the Allies' strong-arm at present.  Already Colombo has nealry 300 aircraft, Trincomalee about 100, and other bases (Trivandrum, Madras, Pangim, Bombay, Mangalore, and Karachi) from 30 to 80.  These bombers roughed up about a dozen Jap transports and made a fighter-heavy, bomber-light strike on one KB division, knocking down 70 of 105 Zekes.   Sadly, only four PBY Liberators accompanied the fighters and they missed CV Soryu.  What impact will the loss of all those fighters have on John's short-term security?  More fighters and bombers are pouring into the region and I hope the potency of the strikes will continue to increase.  John can't replenish his aircraft strikes or replace missing aircraft until he gets a base, and I hope he won't get Trivandrum for another few days.  I have one B-29 group at Colombo that will try to hit Addu Atoll hard enough to hinder John from building this base. 
 
India at Sea:  There are currently next to no naval assets in the immediate area (though subs are close and will soon be there in numbers).  A TF with BB King George V and CV Indefatigable is at Singapore awaiting arrival of ten more carriers that are currently near Hue.  These combined forces could be in the Bay of Bengal in ten days or so, I think.  The American carriers will leave Iwo Jima tonight - all of them - in two groups.  The fast carriers in five TFs accompanied by a stout combat TF will move at flank speed toward Batan Islands; the slower CVEs (there are 30 of them!) will follow another combat TF.  Not sure whether any or all of these will head to the IO.  Current thinking is that the fleet carriers will, but that the CVEs will turn back for Iwo to help with the invasion of Formosa.  Three CVEs at Shikuka are heading for Iwo, and from Midway to CVs and two CVEs are on the way.   That's probably enough to handle the Formosa invasion - say 35 CVEs and two CVs (since I'll have LBA close by too).
 
China:  John is pulling out of the Singyang area; the Chinese at Ichang are advancing and those at Singyang will soon attack.  Another shock attack at Canton tomorrow.  Troops are loading on transports for Pescadores.  Troops will soon load for either Foochow or Wenchow.  Troops at Amoy may move across land on Foochow.
 
Japan:  170 4EB hit Tokyo without difficulty, but the big Nagoya raid was scrubbed due to weather.  I'll try that one again tomorrow.
 
SWPac:  An invasion force heading for Nandi left Efate a few days ago; I'll recon this base tomorrow.  I won't land unless it's vacant.
 
Points:  (A) 79,530 (J) 57,445; Ratio:  1.38 to 1; Strategic:  14,890.  (Note:  with the loss of Ramilles I figured the spread would decrease, but it's actually up slightly; once John takes some Indian cities it may temporarily decrease, but ultimately I think the Japanese are doomed to failure and big losses the Indian operation).
 
 

[Alikchi2]

It seems like a bit of a "death ride" considering all the assets you have available. You just knocked down 70 carrier fighters with the stuff you've cobbled together in a couple days.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/03/44

]India:  (When my carriers moved from Australia to Port Blair a few weeks ago, imagine if they had blundered into the KB....)

Trust me, at the time we were all wondering.

[Q-Ball]

Dan, I think others have summed it up well. John did have a couple suspicions, but realizes now those were unwarranted. He explained on his AAR that he didn't have the greatest of days personally, won't detail here but I know you are aware of those issues. Sometimes emotions get into WITP.

Thank you for the vote of confidence. I stopped giving you advice a long time ago because you don't need it anymore, and stopped giving John advice because I wanted to see what happens with this invasion on both sides, because I knew it would be entertaining. You can debate the wisdom or prudence of a Japanese landing in India in 1944, but not the entertainment![:D]

[Kwik E Mart]

Forgive me, it's been a LONG time since I played a WiTP game, but does the invasion of India trigger any extra reinforcements?

Great reading, BTW!

[RUPD3658]

Not for India (maybe in the fabeld AE[;)]). Unvasions of the US mainland south of Canada triggers the extras you are thinking of

[Prydwen]

Wow! This has been a heck of a game. I've spent practically every spare moment I've had over the past several days reading these AAR's and I just got caught up on yours. In his AAR he's still pulling out of Oz. I know the whole India thing is up in the air but I think that was literally the best thing he could do for you. Time to go CV hunting! Any land or territtory you lose is meaningless. Get his CV's and everybody he's landed in India will never set foot on Japan again. Best of luck.

~IAM

[Misconduct]

I agree so far this has been best AAR I read so far between you guys, very intense and I am learning a great deal thanks

[Nemo121]

His invasion of India is an example of vainglorious elan unsupported by deeper strategic consideration. It is spectacle but not war. In a real war this would fail terribly and then there would be medals all around in order to help conceal the extent of the failure. Individual stories of bravery would also be extolled in order to draw attention away from the errors in the High Command.
 
If you keep your head you can smash this quickly and cheaply. You can contain it even more cheaply and quickly ( settling for stalemate in India and thus imposing an intolerable strain on his navy in the medium and long term ) and containing this whilst concentrating on taking Java is actually the strategically more artful solution. It allows the greatest efficiency of force utilisation and dooms his invasion of India just as surely as meeting his troops en masse in India --- and robbing your speartip of some of its mass. If you go for Java you can do so on the cheap, frustrate this Indian madness and still easily maintain enough force in China and the DEI to advance as quickly as you would have without this invasion.
 
Turning back to meet the invasion head on with masses of ground troops - which must come from weakening of the speartip - would slow your advance in China and elsewhere. Java is a win/win proposition and, importantly, it is more artful.

[JeffroK]

His invasion of India is an example of vainglorious elan unsupported by deeper strategic consideration. It is spectacle but not war. In a real war this would fail terribly and then there would be medals all around in order to help conceal the extent of the failure. Individual stories of bravery would also be extolled in order to draw attention away from the errors in the High Command.

Thats what I meant, but didnt use such eloquent language.......

[DW]

Turning back to meet the invasion head on with masses of ground troops - which must come from weakening of the speartip - would slow your advance in China and elsewhere. Java is a win/win proposition and, importantly, it is more artful.

That's what I like about your plans, Nemo.

Not only do they have to pass the strategic test, they have to have STYLE.

[:)]

[Canoerebel]

11/6/44 and 11/7/44

India: John has suffered some losses to aircraft and naval assets, but his troops took Trivandrum on a 41:1 attack on the 7th, destroying about 30 aircraft on the ground. Now he can move basically unhindered through much of India. The main threats to his campaign are time and Allied air power. LBA finished over the CVE damaged a few days ago, and one scouting bomber scored a hit on Soryu. Today, BBs Hiei and Hyuga were both hit three or four times and are afire. The Japs have already lost more transports than they got during the first two days of the surprise attack.

The Allied countermeasures are continuing to make progress. In just three days, a goodly portion of 251st UK Brigade has been transported from Singapore to Cuttack (or one of those cities in NE India). A US RCT is two days behind. More will follow. I want enough ground troops around Calcutta to make sure I don't lose that base. I would also like to reinforce Karachi and Bombay if possible. I don't mind losing anything else in the interior and southern India. I have one transport TF about to arrive at Singapore. It will carry most of an Indian division to Diamond Harbor area.

I don't think John can touch Ceylon, and that's the key to my security. It has enough troops, aircraft, and supplies to withstand nearly anything John can throw my way.

The first carrier force has just passed Saigon and will refuel in Singapore. It can make the eastern Bay of Bengal within a week.

The American carriers are nearing Batan Island and Aparri and got in some good licks against alot of shipping - CA Aoba, several CLs, and a bunch of small craft and transports were hit. The carriers will continue into the South China Sea and then make for either Saigon or Singapore to refuel. From there, I'm not sure which way I'll go - I prefer to slide by Telekbetong (in the straits between Sumatra and Java), but John could create a great ambush by mining this narrow passage. So I may just have to steam up the Straits of Malacca, which might give John a chance to pull the KB out (he'll know I'm coming) if he's willing to abandon his army in India.

China: Canton fell to a 4:1 attack on the 6th, the now cutoff Jap army will have to make its way to Kanshien, which is also about to be cut off. The massive Allied army at Canton will now disperse - a sizeable contingent remaining to guard the city, but others moving by land to Changsha (and then Nanchang) and others moving to Hong Kong to participate in future amphibious operations. John is withdrawing from Kanhsien and Singyan and probably hopes to make a final stand in urban Shanghai. The Allies will be invading three more coastal cities soon - Foochow, Wenchow, and "Nagoi" (or something like that, I disremember). Shanghai will be pretty isolated.

Operation Neptune: The Allies will continue gathering troops at Iwo Jima, but the actual invasion will have to wait for at least some carrier cover and that will be determined by what happens in the Indian Ocean. I'm not positive yet that I'll send the American CVE fleet to the IO; if not, Neptune can proceed on schedule.

Japan: The raid on Nagoya on the 6th was a bust - the fighter sweep didn't fly, so the B-29s suffered losses (29 aircraft to about 15 Jap fighters). The bombers did knock out 24 Frank Factory points, so it wasn't a total loss. The Tori Shima fighters did complete their sweep the next day, knocking out 66 fighters and losing five.

SWPac: Fiji Brigade began landing at Nandi on the 7th - I haven't viewed the turn file yet, but I think this base is unoccupied.

Strategic Talk: I read and consider every note and comment. Thanks for all the input and feedback. I will not take any ground units from Operation Shooting Star (China) nor Operation Neptune (Formosa) to defend India. The troops I'm sending are "spare" units that were parked in Singapore (I have 3,500 AV there). I have sent alot of aircraft to India, but I still have more than enough to handle China and Formosa. The Allies have more aircraf than my bases can hold. I have about 2,000 AV prepped for Palembang, and I'd move on that city now if I had enough transports; but I prefer to keep my transports in China to handle the invasions of Pescadores, Foochow, Wenchow, and that other city (Nagoi?). Once the Allies land at Formosa, I'll have more transports than I need; so that's when I'll hit Palembang. Summary: The defense of India won't take anything from China or Formosa (except my carriers, I should add).

John's going to temporarily have alot of fun taking vacant Indian bases; but I think he's doomed to utter failure.

Points: (A) 79,930 (J) 57,516; Ratio: 1.39 to 1; Strategic: 14.978.

[Canoerebel]

A brief update now that I've had a chance to view the combat replay and work on the next turn:
 
1. One of the bombs that hit BB Hyuga was a 2,000 pounder, so she should be slowed considerably.
 
2. Two of the bombs that hit CA Aoba (at Appari, Philippines) were 2,000 pounders, so she may be crippled.
 
3.  If the American carriers had enough fuel, I'd head straight down to Java to cut off the Jap carriers; but I don't, so the carriers will head to Singapore (or if they're too low to reach that, Saigon).
 
4.  John is raising Cain about Allied naval search scoring hits.  He has hundreds of ships, many unprotected, within a few hexes of 500 Allied aircraft; most of these bombers have experience in the high 80s and low 90s.  What the heck does he expect?
 
5.  John is using the "follow enemy" feature to leapfrog his tank divisions.  He'll have half of India in two weeks. 
 
6. He got alot of fuel (but no supplies) at Trivandrum; he'll get a fair amount of supplies at Madras; but no other bases are heavily stocked except Bombay and Karachi,.and I sure hope to stop him from taking those.
 
7.  I've just about decided to commit the American fleet carriers (plus the British carriers) to the IO, but to keep the CVEs (plus CV Shangri La and another CV on the way) at Iwo to handle the invasion of Formosa.
 
8.  Nandi is unocuppied and I think Suva is also.  So Nandi will fall tomorrow to the Fiji Brigade.  For reasons I can't really put my finger on, I will feel alot better about the Allies comeback in this game if I'm able to recapture Suva, the Societies, and Pago Pago.  It just wouldn't feel right to have the game end with those places in Japanese hands.