Bullwinkle - If you play the game with VPs in mind then your point has some merit... although even then I think this Indian adventure is misjudged... but I tend to discount VPs. They are a crude measure which encourages less than ideal strategic decision-making. You should want to take Singapore because it is a developed port with 2 different routes of exploitation along SLOCs NOT because it will give you x hundred VPs. Different strokes for different folks though.
Fair enough. We disagree on VPs. You can play the game as a strategic simulator as well as a game.
But the question is then, what SHOULD he be doing at this point, with his assets, in the face of Dan's position? The RL Japanese would have thrown the remnants of the IJN at Iwo and died. Should he have done that, shook Dan's hand, and retired to read AARs? He screwed up badly by allowing Sakhalin, but it's spilled milk.
It's nice to "shape" campaigns and theaters--I've read those staff manuals too--but he has few tools. The hour is late. What should he be doing now--if VPs are not a consideration?
11/9/44
India on Land: The Japs took the interior city 120 miles north of Trivandrum and are on the move up several roads. I expect John to use paratroops over the next day or two (and all interior cities and a few coastal cities are vacant, so they'll do the job for him). I still expect John to gobble up most of interior India along with some of the coastal towns like Madras, Pangim, Bangalore, and Viz. The more I look at this, however, the more it appears to be what I said earlier - like marbles rolling around in an empty metal bucket making alot of noise. John has a pretty long way to go before he gets anywhere, Allied troops are already arriving in NE India, John doesn't have enough to really take anything the Allies defend, and how is he going to garrison what he does take? He'll either be spread awfully thin or he'll have just one or two powerful spearheads. He's going to be in big trouble.
India in the Air: Allied bombers did a good day's work. Today, Trivandrum had clear weather, so naval strike missions flew and most of the damage came in that form rather than from naval search missions. John had 20-30 transports hit and BB Hiei took two more hits, though I doubt they did much. The Allies have had total air supremacy from the get-go and it will just get worse for the Japs.
India at Sea: Allied subs made their presence known, damaging or sinking a few AKs and an AO. I have about ten operation out of Colombo now, and a big congregation waiting between Sabang and the map edge to greet John's ships when they retire. Three Allied carrier TFs met at Singapore, refueled, and will head to Sabang before receiving further orders. This group includes American carriers Bennington and Ticonderago, four or five British fleet carriers and CVL Hermes, and three RN CVEs. They wil not stick there nose out too far unless I an opportunity arises. The American fleet carriers are nearing Aparri and will steam through the narrow channel tomorrow (if John fills it with mines we'll see what happens; I've decided to chance this passage unscouted - except by subs - in the name of haste). A few Jap LBA Judys sortied and these carriers put up 360 Hellcats. Their strike planes finished off CA Aoba at San Fernando, PI.
China: D-Day at Pescadores found a very week garrison. The Allies landed 100 AV and will shock attack tomorrow. D-Day at Foochow was yesterday, but it was just a small Indian unit scouting the terrain. Then an American armored unit rolled overland into the area. The combined units withstood a very weak Jap attack (most of John's units at Foochow are exhausted from recent defeats). More units are on the march from Amoy but it will take four more days. Meanwhile, transports are loading with troops to hit the beaches at Woochow. D-Day is no more than five days away. The Japanese position in China is in utter disaray.
Operation Neptune: The American CVEs are turning back for Iwo Jima. The reinforcement convoys from Midway are nearing the halfway point to Iwo. The Formosa invasion forces will begin loading in three or four days; embarkation should be in a week; D-Day should be in two weeks.
SWPac: Fiji Brigade landed at unoccupied Nandi, took the base, and is heading overland to Suva.
Jap Trap/Diversion?: I have given much more thought to what John is doing in India. He didn't bring enough to really accomplish anything lasting; just enough to create a heck of alot of noise for awhile. I am concerned about him mining channels, but that is a manageable risk. I think the trap is that he want incite a big carrier battle in the open ocean and that he's swapped out all of his dive bombers for torpedo bombers. He has mentioned this before in various threads in the forums, and he's certainly had time to orchestrate such a lineup. So I probably won't give him the satisfaction of meeting in the open sea; I'll tinker around under cover of LBA, which ought to drive him nuts. (But I will move in if his carriers remain scattered as they are now).
Points: (A) 80,405 (J) 57,609; Ratio: 1.39 to 1.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
John has a pretty long way to go before he gets anywhere, Allied troops are already arriving in NE India, John doesn't have enough to really take anything the Allies defend, and how is he going to garrison what he does take? He'll either be spread awfully thin or he'll have just one or two powerful spearheads. He's going to be in big trouble.
One thing it didn't understand...
Why did he land at a place where your supply centers are as far away as possible? He needs totake Calcutta and/or Karachi (this prefered). This would allow him to feed his troops indepently even if blockaded - which you are already doing.
Landing at Trivandrum makes captureing these important points quite insecure...
Without any doubt: I am the spawn of evil - and the Bavarian Beer Monster (BBM)!
There's only one bad word and that's taxes. If any other word is good enough for sailors; it's good enough for you. - Ron Swanson
One thing it didn't understand...
Why did he land at a place where your supply centers are as far away as possible? He needs totake Calcutta and/or Karachi (this prefered). This would allow him to feed his troops indepently even if blockaded - which you are already doing.
Landing at Trivandrum makes captureing these important points quite insecure...
Without commenting on any inside knowledge, looking at the map you can't sneak up on a target in the Bay of Bengal. Dan would be able to see an invasion a good week before a landing at Calcutta, plenty of time to make it impossible.
Southern India you can sneak up on by hugging the map edge. Obviously John did that successfully, because Dan didn't see him until the transports were almost ashore.
Historiker,
Strategically this is a huge bungle and the people who are applauding John's "audacity" are, IMO, completely missing the point. This is not the "least worst option" and when losing sometimes that's the best you can do ( not always but sometimes ).
Anyways, John has made a huge strategic error here - and a really obvious one - so I think it is little surprise to see that this glaringly obvious strategic error is being accompanied by more subtle operational errors.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Q Ball... Ah but it isn't necessary to sneak up on it. Just 2 more days hard sailing would have got him in position to land north of Bombay and really give the Allies a problem with a dual landing ( if he was still wedded to Trivandrum etc ).
Not quickly taking Bombay and basing Bettys there to cut off reinforcements originating from Aden is a major strategic blunder. No ifs ands or buts.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Q Ball... Ah but it isn't necessary to sneak up on it. Just 2 more days hard sailing would have got him in position to land north of Bombay and really give the Allies a problem with a dual landing ( if he was still wedded to Trivandrum etc ).
Not quickly taking Bombay and basing Bettys there to cut off reinforcements originating from Aden is a major strategic blunder. No ifs ands or buts.
He can also sneak close to the Aden channel up to Karachi. The guns there would cost him a lot, but landing some thousand AV there should capture the city. If he has it once, his troops should at least be able to survive the following month - if not more! An option then might be to bring in fragments of other units and let them rebuild in Karachi. IIRC, the off-map supplies continue to appear even if Karachi is captuered, no?
Strategically this is a huge bungle and the people who are applauding John's "audacity" are, IMO, completely missing the point. This is not the "least worst option" and when losing sometimes that's the best you can do ( not always but sometimes ).
I know. I haven't followed this AARs for long, but if I understood correctly, Sakkhalin is captuered for about a year now? And I'm pretty sure that allied 4es start from the airfields there to bomb Japans industry every day, right?
If so, I would rather try to recapture it even now. Just captureing one base on Sakkhalin would be better than getting a few unsupplied bases in India without any connection to the rest.
Without any doubt: I am the spawn of evil - and the Bavarian Beer Monster (BBM)!
There's only one bad word and that's taxes. If any other word is good enough for sailors; it's good enough for you. - Ron Swanson
Bullwinkle,
He missed the point of decision - Sakhalin - THAT was the point at which he should have risked all and risking all and losing all was justified. Even now though he could mount numerous, cheap, spoiling operations across the map with a view to causing disruption to the allied synchronisation etc.
Multiple smaller operational victories would yield greater strategic benefit in this situation. I believe ( and some might disagree ) that were I in John's position that I would be able to give the Allies quite a few bloody noses and by vigorous action aimed at their SLOCs and the bases along them starve the speartips of sufficient supplies so as to make the number of B-29s available a less than salient point.
B-29s without supplies don't threaten much of anything. As to why I think this... Well, I think the strategic dyscorrelation is more favourable to Japan in this game than it is to the Allies in my game vs Damian and there despite the fact that my navy and air force are completely outmatched ( Damian has at least 50% more first-line fighters on-map than me with equivalent experience levels ) I'm able to advance by playing to my strengths and maintaining a variation of tempo, direction and dys-synchronising enemy responses. I am certain the same could be done in this game to good effect.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Well, I agree that had he landed at Mangalore or Pangim (or a base between Karachi and Bombay) I'd be much more worried - the "pucker factor" would have been great. Both bases are defended, but not nearly strong enough. By the time John reaches then, they will have been reinforced by units marching overland from Diamond Harbor. Both will then have AVs of 300, which is okay but not great. By then, however, I'll probably have an air transport network set up to bring in more troops.
John did a great job sneaking up, and got lucky too. I've had lots of convoys moving between Ceylon and Australia, but he time a gap perfectly. John also has done well operationally (except leaving his transports unprotected). But strategically he couldn't have chosen a worse spot to land for him, or a better one for the Allies. He's so far from anything but right next to Ceylon, the "big unsinkable carrier."
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Historiker, no, once you capture Karachi the off-map supplies stop appearing. Only on-map supplies appear. The other benefit of taking Karachi or Bombay as a first thrust would be that the next thrust then could orient mainly south-eastward thus preventing dissipation of forces ( as occurred in the John3rd, QBall joint AAR when they landed at Vizgapatam and dissipated their effort into three equal thrusts ).
At present it looks to me like he is in danger of dissipating the force of his landings significantly.
I think Sakhalin fell even more recently than this... Perhaps within the last 6 months of game time...
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Canoerebel --- Operationally leaving his ONE major means of escape largely unprotected is a pretty damned major error.
In addition he has managed to reverse the historical Japanese error of dispersing his carriers strategically but then concentrating them too much tactically and operationally by concentrating them strategically but then dispersing them so much operationally that they weren't mutually supporting initially.
Sorry but his play here has been poor on many levels. Daring, sure? But daringly jumping off a cliff without a parachute isn't something I'd applaud and neither am I going to pretend that the gaming equivalent of that is anything other than risible. Being daring doesn't excuse poor planning and execution IMO.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
The Allies invaded Hokkaido in early December 1943; as things began to go awry, they cobbled together a force to also land at Sikhalin Island, which somehow succeeded and then held the base. The landings at Sikhalin were in mid-December 1943. It was winter, so John couldn't attack then. He could blockade, because my supplies were low and my supply line tenuous; then he could have invaded on March 1 when winter restrictions ended. He would've had a tough time, but he certainly had a chance and it was the only plan that made sense. Instead he sent the IJN to Malaya where he promptly lost Yamato and Musashi. He fixated on Sumatra/Malaya and months passed and I was able to get a big supply convoy to Sikhalin (with absolutely no interference from the IJN) and at that point I think Sikhalin became pretty secure - say March or April '44.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Just a point: Just because it was winter didn't mean he couldn't invade. It just made the cost in terms of losses while landing higher. IN the end thought not invading meant losing the game so it should have been obvious to him that ANY loss rate in landing was acceptable, no matter how high.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Just a point: Just because it was winter didn't mean he couldn't invade. It just made the cost in terms of losses while landing higher. IN the end thought not invading meant losing the game so it should have been obvious to him that ANY loss rate in landing was acceptable, no matter how high.
The cold weather landing modifiers are pretty nasty in the game.
Yeah, John couldn't have invaded unless the base was vacant or essentially vacant. The weather modifer is absolutely catastrophic on invasions. He should've tried to impose a blockade and bomb as much as he could until weather cleared. So he would've had to wait 2.5 months, during which he could have prepped troops. He would've had a very hard time, but as we've all stated, it was about the only thing that made sense.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I've invaded and taken bases in the cold weather zone during winter many times as both Japanese and Allies. One trick is to use FT TFs for the invasion ( which seems to cut down on disablements ) and then just wait a couple of days before attacking which tends to allow quite a few disabled units to recover.
Mainly though it isn't a case of it being impossible but merely a case of it costing more. Since it cost him the game not to counter-invade then ANY price was worth paying.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
11/10/44
A briefer update given the late hour in the day...
India: Jap paratroops fragments took two Indian cities, including Hyderabad. I think both contingents are less than 100 strong. I hope so, because to Indian units were a hex from Hyderabad and are moving that way. In a few days I may take back that city (although these guys are actually meant for Bombay). Allied LBA continues to hammer away on merchant ships and scored six more hits on Hiei, setting her afire. Subs are also getting in a few licks. John's units are already dispersed badly and it's becoming increasingly clear that his force is far too weak to accomplish anything lasting (at least that's what my Intel guys is telling me).
Carriers: The RN/USA combined force is at Malacca and on the way to Sabang. The American carrier TF made it through the straits north of Luzon without difficulty and are now in the South China Sea, two hexes west of Laog. They will refuel at Saigon and then make for Singapore. The American CVEs are returning to Iwo Jima.
China: In the complete absence of any real opposition from Jap air or the IJN, the Allies are just throwing ships and men around with relative impunity. Pescadores fell to a shock attack. The small advance force at Foochow has held against two attacks. The Wenchow invasion force is gathering at Hong Kong and will sail in two or three days. The Jap garrison at Nanchang evicted three early arrivers, but the bulk of the Allied army begins arriving tomorrow. The Allies will have about 4,000 AV here.
Points: (A) 80,724 (J) 57,728; Ratio: 1.40 to 1.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Maybe this needs to get past the gamey Police first, how about splitting up some high performance fightrs and split them around India to intercept the Para transports. They'll die but might put a dent in his plan, especially if only small numbers are landing.
lasting (at least that's what my Intel guys is telling me).
Never trust the Intel man, I know from experience [8D]
Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum
He may well wonder about those two units. For the record: both are District Brigades that had been at Diamond Harbor for at least six months or a year. The day the entire Jap Navy showed up of the coast of India, I set them to march to Bombay. There was another unit nearby, and I sent it to Karachi.
I won't try the fighter gambit, although I think it's perfectly fine. Honestly, I think things are under control even though they are out of control at the moment. Makes sense, right?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Historiker, no, once you capture Karachi the off-map supplies stop appearing. Only on-map supplies appear. The other benefit of taking Karachi or Bombay as a first thrust would be that the next thrust then could orient mainly south-eastward thus preventing dissipation of forces ( as occurred in the John3rd, QBall joint AAR when they landed at Vizgapatam and dissipated their effort into three equal thrusts ).
At present it looks to me like he is in danger of dissipating the force of his landings significantly.
I think Sakhalin fell even more recently than this... Perhaps within the last 6 months of game time...
Do off-map supplies even appear at Karachi and Bombay in this mod? Or do they appear at Aden?
