Near misses

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GaryChildress
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RE: Near misses

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: Ron Saueracker

We have individual pilots, personal weapons, leaders etc but ships are crewless (aside from a skill factor) and have armoured paint.

From the sounds of it we're going to have to live with "crewless" ships and "armoured paint". But look on the bright side. If there were no WITP we could all be griping in the Risk forum right now instead.

"I tried to take Irkutsk with two armies and a cannon! 3 bad die rolls later I was defeated by a horse. Are horses invicible!"

Meanwhile in the WITP forum: "...this Château Blanc '68 is supposed to be served slightly chilled! This is room temperature! What do you think we are, animals?"
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witpqs
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RE: Near misses

Post by witpqs »

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Subchaser
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RE: Near misses

Post by Subchaser »

Ron, what kind of examples do you want, ships actually sunk by near-misses or examples of a different way of weapon and armor systems interaction compared with direct hit?

Bomb near-misses and gravity of the shock was a hidden problem that no one fully realized before the world war 2. This issue only became apparent with the magnetic mines used in 1939 and when the ships started taking bomb near misses. Interesting fact is that initially naval air attack doctrine was based on near-miss tactics tested by general Mitchell and his provisional air brigade in 1921.

“Mitchell took command on May 27 after testing bombs, fuzes, and other equipment at Aberdeen Proving Ground and began training in anti-ship bombing techniques. Alexander Seversky, a veteran Russian pilot who had bombed German ships in the Great War, joined the effort, suggesting the bombers aim near the ships so that expanding water pressure from the underwater blasts would stave in and separate hull plates. Further discussion with Captain Alfred Wilkinson Johnson, Commander, Air Force, Atlantic fleet aboard USS Shawmut, confirmed that near-miss bombs would cause more damage than direct hits by causing an underwater concussive effect against the hull.”

“Sinking of the Ostfriesland. NBS-1s dropped six bombs in quick succession between 12:18 p.m. and 12:31 p.m., aiming for the water near the ship. There were no direct hits but three of the bombs landed close enough to rip hull plates as well as cause the ship to roll over. The ship sank at 12:40 p.m., 22 minutes after the first bomb, with a seventh bomb dropped by the Handley Page on the foam rising up from the sinking battleship. Navy studies of the wreck of the Ostfriesland show she had suffered little topside damage from bombs and was sunk by progressive flooding.”


Before ww2 this issue was often overlooked in all major navies. Prewar doctrine for the IJN, USN, and RN, all leading carrier powers, believed that armoured warships could not be sunk by bombs alone. The sinking of the light cruiser Konigsberg in Bergen harbor by Skuas equipped with 500lb. bombs was considered an aberration cause she was stationary target in shallow water harbor where the concussive effects of the near miss bombs were magnified.

It’s well known what IJN dive-bombers achieved in the early war stages, but few know that this success came as a shock surprise to IJN. Standard 250kg GP bomb carried just 133lb of explosive, designed by Kure arsenal, it supposed to be used against the wooden decks of American carriers, which it could pierce with ease and penetrate into carrier’s vitals resulting fatal damage to the vessel, in the same time, these bombs were not supposed to be capable of sinking such heavily armored vessel as battleship outright, nor were they intended to. When used against ships with armoured decks, their function was to suppress the exposed gun positions, damage communications and wreck the upper works, all of which would allow the real killer – torpedo-bombers, to make their own vulnerable attack approach with immunity. Vals used 250kg GP bombs against battleships at PH solely because their primary target, USN carriers were not present. Used against medium-armoured ships like CA, it was hoped that these bombs could be effective enough to sink such warship, but only if an overwhelming number of hits was attained. Isolated hits on CA, or up to 4-5 direct hits should not normally sink such a ship, at least nobody expected that. The fact that the Vals actually sank, quickly and decisively, heavy cruisers Dorsetshire and Cornwall in the Indian Ocean in April 1942 absolutely shocked IJN naval specialists who did not believe that bombs alone could sink any ship larger than a destroyer. Surprisingly fast IJN expert team lead by Commander Obata had figured out that fatal damage was caused by “hydroshock effect” of numerous near-miss hits, later in 1942 IJN initiated two projects in experimental centre in Migure where they tried to develop “Ii-tan” type HE bombs, specially designed hydro-shock bombs to be used by Rikko units.

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Just about any deck armor is sufficient to force the HE/GP ordnance to explode. The damage caused is then typically limited to the target's upper works. Bomb hits upper deck and it’s enough to trigger the fuse. That way, the bomb explodes before reaching the armor deck, and usually does not damage the engineering spaces or magazines. Armored decks were impervious to penetration by HE bombs. However, as events showed, armoured ships subjected to attack by 500- 1000lb HE bombs saw some damage above the armor deck, while near misses breeched any underwater protection. It’s hard to figure out how many ships were sunk exclusively by bomb near-misses, but I think it’s not that necessarily for making the point clear, when warship came under serious air attack it usually got some direct hits along with near-misses, more important is what damage reports claim as a major damage factor, and quite often it turns out that underwater explosions did most of the battle-damage. HE ordnance that could do only limited damage topside sometimes breeched hull below waterline and was as effective as torpedo that way. Read any USN carriers damage reports, Lex, Yorktown, Big E they all were seriously damaged by near-misses. In some cases, near-misses were the only way to damage fast, maneuverable vessel with narrow hull like, for example, CL Yubari. On 10th Marh 1942 Yubari survived furious USN air attacks, she evaded 67 bombs and 12 torpedoes, no direct hits were scored, however she was damaged. A couple of days she was again “missed” by B-17s at Rabaul and departed for battle-damage repairs at Truk, no direct hits were scored on her. During Guadalcanal campaign a lot of ships were heavily damaged or sunk by near misses in shallow waters, on 11th october 42, SBD pilot Lt.Cdr John Eldridge attacked IJN destroyer Natsugumo and got a close near-miss. Underwater explosion caused uncontrollable flooding and the ship capsized 40 minutes later. One, single near miss by 1000lb bomb was enough to sink 2400t. ship, note that Asashio class DD were capable to withstand several direct 1000lb hits. 6 days before her sinking Natsugumo was escorting her sister Minegumo back to Shortlands, Minegumo was near-missed by two 500lb. bombs in shallow waters, although both bombs exploded quite far from the ship, there was serious flooding and the top speed went down to 13 knots.

It’s hard to analyze damage reports of all ships sunk during the war, so I took only IJN heavy cruisers damage reports. All 18 warship were lost due

Fatal damage caused by torpedoes – 10
Fatal damage caused by own torpedoes explosion – 3
Fatal damage caused by near-misses bombs – 3
Fatal damage caused by artillery fire – 1
Fatal damage caused by direct hit bombs – 1

IJN cruisers sunk by bomb underwater explosions
Kinugasa – 1 x 500lb direct hit (gun mount disabled) + 7 x 500lb near misses (fatal damage)
Aoba – 1 x 500lb direct hit, 1 x 2000lb near miss in shallow waters and she was just hull after that.
Tone – 3 x 500/1000lb direct hits (medium system damage), 7 x 500/1000lb bomb near misses (flooding – fatal damage), ship beached with main deck above the waterline.

Many IJN light cruisers were heavily damaged by near-misses, and for example CK Oyodo got 6 500/1000lb near misses during the final attack on her on 28 july ’45, no direct hits, and sunk.

Here is an interesting report on the subject. It’s way scientific, a lot of formulas, but still worthy to look at.

The Response of Surface Ships to Underwater Explosions. By Warren D. Reid
http://dspace.dsto.defence.gov.au/dspac ... 0%20PR.pdf

“An underwater explosion detonated nearby a ship can in many situations, be devastating to the combat readiness of the vessel. Damage to a vessel may occur in the form of dished hull plating or more serious holing of the hull. However some damage may not be obvious and could occur as a result of shock-wave loading of equipment and systems aboard the vessel. Equipment damage may incapacitate a vessel. Much research effort has been expended in the study of underwater shock, especially during the period after World War II, where it became obvious that many navy vessels could be disabled easily by a non-contact underwater explosion.”
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Yamato hugger
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RE: Near misses

Post by Yamato hugger »

Wow - 5 pages. The way I see it, if it damages the ship its a "hit". Doesnt matter to me if it explodes in the water or not. And I suspect thats the way the game treats it also.
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witpqs
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RE: Near misses

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger

Wow - 5 pages. The way I see it, if it damages the ship its a "hit". Doesnt matter to me if it explodes in the water or not. And I suspect thats the way the game treats it also.

Agreed. And as noted already, Don Bowen confirmed such in this very thread.
Dili
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RE: Near misses

Post by Dili »

The fact that the Vals actually sank, quickly and decisively, heavy cruisers Dorsetshire and Cornwall in the Indian Ocean in April 1942 absolutely shocked IJN naval specialists who did not believe that bombs alone could sink any ship larger than a destroyer.

Your inventions don't take you anywhere. I guess 800kg bombs weren't made for Pearl Harbour...
Asashio class DD were capable to withstand several direct 1000lb hits

What can i say...it must be a joke...
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witpqs
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RE: Near misses

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Dili
The fact that the Vals actually sank, quickly and decisively, heavy cruisers Dorsetshire and Cornwall in the Indian Ocean in April 1942 absolutely shocked IJN naval specialists who did not believe that bombs alone could sink any ship larger than a destroyer.

Your inventions don't take you anywhere. I guess 800kg bombs weren't made for Pearl Harbour...

Dili, please explain what you mean here. I don't get it. Thanks.
Dili
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RE: Near misses

Post by Dili »

Hmm Japanese didn't employed bombs against heavy ships since start including high level bombing and dive? 800kg bombs weren't build agaisnt armored ships? A carrier wasn't out of Mediterranean due to bombing before Pearl Harbour? Cruisers weren't sunk in Crete by bombing? all in 41 before War in Asia started?

He just over stresses his points with these over the top claims.
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Subchaser
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RE: Near misses

Post by Subchaser »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Agreed. And as noted already, Don Bowen confirmed such in this very thread.

As I’ve said before I do not ask for AE/WitP “damage system” changes, in overall, it produces more or less accurate results, I don’t really care what rolls it takes to give a certain result away, I’ve tried to provide a historical perspective on this subject, cause the starting point “a hit is a hit” was obviously wrong. Although I would like to see more complicated damage system in any future projects, designed by this or any other team.

Comments like “It’s strategic game and you say horses are modeled wrong” is beyond me. Any tweaks in damage system can change not only tactical pattern but entire strategic situation in the game, for example, if US player lose (or do not lose) his carriers early in the game because of simplified (or way too complicated) damage routine, it will make an effect for good hundred of turns.

It was a typo there. It should be 500lb bomb that sunk Natsugumo.
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witpqs
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RE: Near misses

Post by witpqs »

I didn't read it that way at all. He was talking about Val dive bombers that used - let's call them - regular production bombs. He made no mention of the special 800kg bombs. Are you saying that the 800kg bombs (specially converted battleship armor-piercing shells) were in general usage by Val dive bombers?
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Subchaser
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RE: Near misses

Post by Subchaser »

Hmm Japanese didn't employed bombs against heavy ships since start including high level bombing and dive?

You’ve missed the point. I said that Japanese were surprised to see how effective their dive-bombers were and that they didn’t except it with 250kg loadouts.
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GaryChildress
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RE: Near misses

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: Subchaser
As I’ve said before I do not ask for AE/WitP “damage system” changes, in overall, it produces more or less accurate results

If the game produces "more or less accurate results" what more do we want? [&:]

Sounds like maybe a simple change in "eye candy"/combat reports would fix things. Instead of "Hit, belt armor penetration" the game should occasionally throw out the message "Near miss, belt armor penetration." Maybe that would remedy things? [&:]
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witpqs
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RE: Near misses

Post by witpqs »

Quite so.

Some have pointed out that there are too many hits and each one causes too little damage. At some (perhaps long in the) future point folks might want to 'recalibrate' along those lines, or for some other reason. This other stuff is just eye candy, as you say.
GaryChildress
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RE: Near misses

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Some have pointed out that there are too many hits and each one causes too little damage. At some (perhaps long in the) future point folks might want to 'recalibrate' along those lines, or for some other reason.

I guess I can't argue there. [:o]

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RE: Near misses

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger

Wow - 5 pages. The way I see it, if it damages the ship its a "hit". Doesnt matter to me if it explodes in the water or not. And I suspect thats the way the game treats it also.

Agreed. And as noted already, Don Bowen confirmed such in this very thread.

Yes, but the problem is that the variation in damage from a bomb hit or near miss was much more dramatic than in the game. This can also been seen in the amount of time to repair a near miss or a direct hit. A near miss took much longer to repair.
Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com
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RE: Near misses

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: Dili
The fact that the Vals actually sank, quickly and decisively, heavy cruisers Dorsetshire and Cornwall in the Indian Ocean in April 1942 absolutely shocked IJN naval specialists who did not believe that bombs alone could sink any ship larger than a destroyer.

Your inventions don't take you anywhere. I guess 800kg bombs weren't made for Pearl Harbour...
Asashio class DD were capable to withstand several direct 1000lb hits

What can i say...it must be a joke...

The Japanese 800 kg bombs were dropped by B5Ns, not D3As.
Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com
Dili
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RE: Near misses

Post by Dili »

You’ve missed the point. I said that Japanese were surprised to see how effective their dive-bombers were and that they didn’t except it with 250kg loadouts.

You said that streching it to unbelivable levels of surprise. You even said that a certain class of DD's resisted several 1000lb bombs to stress that point...How can they'll be surprised when in Crete cruisers were sunk right and left... and if they were so certain of not being surprised why they didn't developed a 500kg bomb for Val?
Yes, but the problem is that the variation in damage from a bomb hit or near miss was much more dramatic than in the game.

That is also my opinion. You could se a cruiser or a carrier get 30x500lb bombs in game and nothing happened.
The Japanese 800 kg bombs were dropped by B5Ns, not D3As.

And?
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witpqs
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RE: Near misses

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Yamato hugger

Wow - 5 pages. The way I see it, if it damages the ship its a "hit". Doesnt matter to me if it explodes in the water or not. And I suspect thats the way the game treats it also.

Agreed. And as noted already, Don Bowen confirmed such in this very thread.

Yes, but the problem is that the variation in damage from a bomb hit or near miss was much more dramatic than in the game. This can also been seen in the amount of time to repair a near miss or a direct hit. A near miss took much longer to repair.

But in the game a hit is a hit. A 'near-miss' is simply a specific kind of hit.

The messages in the combat report or in the graphics during combat resolution should be regarded as only window dressing and not substantial when it comes to this level of detail.

Certainly the 'to-hit' routine could probably be improved. It's been acknowledged that in original writing the code was made to provide more hits than realistic so as to jazz up the game for the players. Even aside from that, something so complicated as the 'to-hit' routine must be could always be improved.

Certainly the 'damage from hit' routine could probably be improved also. Don gave us a rundown on what types of special stuff it considers, such as armored flight deck is just a 'yes or no' as opposed to considering different flavors, and hydraulic shock from 'near-miss' hits is not considered.

Instead, anytime a bomb penetrates armor and causes damage, that just might have been a 'near-miss' that got through the armor. Sure, maybe the percentages can be tweaked up some time later, but how much does that really matter for right now?
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RE: Near misses

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: Dili
The Japanese 800 kg bombs were dropped by B5Ns, not D3As.

And?

Carried by level bombers flying at high enough altitude that the 800kg AP bombs could be expected to penetrate the BB deck armour.
Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com
Dili
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RE: Near misses

Post by Dili »

Yes -did Kate bombed in level flight?- but that doesn't changes anything in argument.
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