Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[paullus99]

He's already made one crucial mistake - letting you know where the KB was located, without inflicting any real damage on your fleet. India is only a sideshow - you get to kill his troops & planes - and while they are there, they can't interfere with other on-going operations.

You're bombing the Home Islands at will - he's bleeding fighters at a pretty good rate there. Sounds like he's massing his LBA around Formosa though, given the attacks generated over the past few turns. You might want to consider some pre-emptive sweeps, if you have the fighters with range available.

If he's rushing from one end of the map to the other, you've gotten him off balance - which means you can prepare a pretty nasty reception once he does commit his carriers again.

[Canoerebel]

He's got a real problem with defending Formosa now - or striking amphibious ships closing on Formosa - because he's lost at least half his airfields and the Allies, of course, are the new owners.  The Allies have big bases and base forces at Amoy, Swatow, and Pescadores, with Foochow soon to come (as soon as I can scare up another base force).  Hong Kong can also lend a hand, and Batan Island is a level one, which offers a little security.  He can still load up the fields on Formosa (three good ones), Luzon, Okinawa, Shanghai area, and Southern Japan, but it's not nearly as intimidating a prospect for the Allies to move on Formosa now, especially with the KB seemingly out of the picture.
 
I am not predicting that the game will end in the near future - I don't know what might happen; but I sincerely hope that the Allies can take Suva and land on Formosa before it ends.  I just "want" Suva back, and the Formosa invasion has been in preparation so long that I would like to see it unfold.  If it doesn't end soon, I think the Japs in India will cause some more headaches, run out of steam, die a slow death, and be largely eradicated by early 1945.

[Canoerebel]

11/19/44
 
After the decisive Confederate victory at Chickamauga in September 1863, the Confederate had the Union army trapped in a river town surrounded by mountains.  The Confederates thought they had the Union army right where they wanted them, but subsequent decisive defeats at the Battles of Lookout Mountain and Missionary Ridge were described by an astute observer as "the shipwreck of their hopes."  I think this aptly describes the current situation for Japan; the thought that the Empire might captitulate is growing.
 
South of Sumatra:  The KB wandered into the Allied sub field south of Sumatra, losing a CL and CV Ikoma (I've never heard of that ship before) taking two TTs.  So John is indeed abandoning India and trying to get the KB back to Java.  This tells me that his India gambit is indeed up the spout.  He had a sub trap off the western tip of Sumatra, but as noted in yesterday's post my carriers are on their way back to Singapore.  This puts my carriers in good position to head back to Formosa if the need should arise.  I no longer think they will be needed for India.
 
India: Nothing really discernible has changed in India yet:  Allied LBA continues to hammer airfields and shipping, and Jap units are spread across the vacant interior of southern India; but with the KB gone, and with Allied troops pouring into NE India, it's become clear that the Japs can't do anything here but die.  I've already cancelled the air transport system and diverted a large aviation regiment that was destined for Calcutta to instead board transports for the trip to Foochow by way of Kiungshan.
 
Operation Neptune:  Most of the ships are now 240 miles south of Iwo; the last three or four CVE TFs have refueled at Iwo and depart tonight.  D-Day Formosa is perhaps six or eight days away.
 
Operation Uranus:  The first attack at Nanchang will occur day after tomorrow or the next day.  The Allies will have 4,500 AV (most 100% prepped) and the Japs 2,500 AV and 9 forts (I assume).  I don't know if I have enough, but if not there's lots more on the way.
 
SWPac:  A probing deliberate attack at Suva came off at 4:1 and dropped forts to 8.  The Allies didn't suffer any casualties, so tomorrow they'll shock attack.
 
Points:  (A) 83,415 (J) 58,039; Ratio:  1.43 to 1

[Nachoz]

Man ill hate the day you guys call off this game... duting several months it has kept me on my toes, even if i dont play WITP...

Greetings to you both...

[Mark VII]

Knowing where KB is, I think it is a good time to run your CV deathstar back to the China/Formosa area, draw some Japanese airstrikes and ruin his landbased air with your uber CAP.

[Canoerebel]

11/20/44
 
Mark, that's one option I'm considering; I'll bet if 20 folks posted their opinions here, though, the vast majority would say, "Go hunt down the KB!"
 
Carriers:  A Dutch sub put 2 TT into CVE Taiyo far to the south of Sumatra.  In his emails, John is trying to bluff that this represents just a portion of his carriers returning for fuel.  I know beter - I know he's given up on India and is desperately trying to extract his carriers from a tight spot before they are cornered and demolished.  My carriers are heading down the Malacca Straits, giving the appearance that they're in hot pursuit, and I think the KB "herd" has panicked and is stampeding.  However, my carriers are bushed - lots of fighters out of commision, many carriers with 10 or higher SYS damage, and all American carriers in need of upgrades.  The end of the war is at hand, and I may need my carriers, so I won't upgrade them now; but I will stop at Singapore long enough to get the fighter groups back up to 100%.  John will feel mighty good that he's escaped the trap, but my goodness the cost to the Japanese - India is a disaster and in the absence of the KB the Allies have run amock on the China coast and the islands offshore.   John may also fear that the next Allied invasion is targeting Java, Borneo or the Philippines, and he may be hoping to employ his carriers there to good effect.
 
India:  I don't know what John will do here now.  I feel like Ceylon's safety is beyond any risk even with my hypersenstive conservatism, so I'm going to air transport a goodly portion of a West African division to Madras and try to hold that urban hex.  The Japanese "marbles" will continue to rattle around in the "empty metal bucket" that is India until they run out of supplies or meet defeat in combat.
 
China:  As soon as I can gather the necessary transports, I'll load the troops to hit Wenchow or Nigpo.  A big base force will begin arriving at Foochow tomorrow, permitting the Allies to provide LRCAP over either target.
 
Operation Neptune: All ships have left Iwo and the advance body is about 300 miles south now; tomorrow they make an abrupt turn to the west and head for Formosa.  This invasion will take time and effort, but with Allied LBA so plentiful, the outcome isn't in question.  Should the game last long enough, the next American target would be Luzon, while the Brits and Chinese focus on Shanghai.  The Americans are bringing extra ships and supplies that are much needed by the British and Chinese.
 
SWPac:  Suva fell to Americans and Fiji troops on the 20th.  The Allies have a huge Aussie army stuck in Australia due to lack of ships; were the game to last long enough to get transports down there, these troops are prepped for a major base in the DEI.  But I have a feeling the war will end before the Australians can ever get their licks in.  But Anzac has largely handled on its own the recapture of Australia plus the invasions of Milne Bay, Port Moresby, Koumac, Luganville, Nandi, and Suva - a pretty decent record of accomplishment.   Next target will be Pago Pago and vicinity; then, should the war last long enough, the Society Islands.
 
Points:  (A)  83,507 (J) 56,941; Ratio:  1.46 to 1

[String]

Hm, you know, singapore has a shipyard? You can upgrade your carriers there if you wish.

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I know - Singapore's a good shipyard as is Hong Kong.  But won't upgrades inflict like 10% SYS damage on the carriers?  At this late date I can't afford to upgrade because then they'd be out of commission while all the "end events" occur (if, that is, my hunch that things are about to come to a head is right).

[witpqs]

With carriers my experience is around 6 sys damage, but maybe late war upgrades do more.

[String]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

With carriers my experience is around 6 sys damage, but maybe late war upgrades do more.

Nope, an upgrade is an upgrade. You can expect to be at around 10-11% sys after an upgrade if your carrier was damaged before.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: String

ORIGINAL: witpqs

With carriers my experience is around 6 sys damage, but maybe late war upgrades do more.

Nope, an upgrade is an upgrade. You can expect to be at around 10-11% sys after an upgrade if your carrier was damaged before.

Seems high. I just put Enterprise through her 10/43 upgrade and it cost me four points of SYST damage. Don't forget they won't upgrade if SYST is 5 or more. So basically four plus whatever the game gives you. It is based on the durability of the ship which is why AK's always turn pink after upgrade. I would let any ships below five go ahead and upgrade Dan. They will probably end up about where most of the other ships are anyway.

[JeffroK]

Do you use Tracker??
 
If so, see what the upgrade offers, if an extra "500AA" its worth it.
 

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Do you use Tracker??

If so, see what the upgrade offers, if an extra "500AA" its worth it.

and the congregation said, "AMEN"

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/20/44

India:  I don't know what John will do here now.  I feel like Ceylon's safety is beyond any risk even with my hypersenstive conservatism, so I'm going to air transport a goodly portion of a West African division to Madras and try to hold that urban hex.  The Japanese "marbles" will continue to rattle around in the "empty metal bucket" that is India until they run out of supplies or meet defeat in combat.

John will have to concentrate his assets in India if he intends to go for Karachi or Bombay. Try to attack his supply ports (Trivandrum and Mangalore?) with ground units (once available) if they have weak garrisons. This will ruin his supply routes even if you don't take the ports (that is, it will be sufficient to have LCU's in the port hexes).

[Canoerebel]

11/21/44
 
Carriers:  RN CVE Begum hit a mine near Singapore and will be in the docks for awhile.  A sub put a TT into CVE Shinyo SW of Christmas Island (IO).  Other than Begum's mishap, the Allied carriers made it to Singapore where they are refueling.  The Jap carriers are stragling toward Java, spread out from near Christmas Island and back for hundreds of miles.  (I could try to cut them off, but my ships and fighters are weary, I'd rather send my carriers to Formosa, and I'd have to chance the crossing through the narrow straits between Java and Sumatra, which John could mine heavily).  It looks like the CVEs and amphibous force heading to Formosa will arrive long before the KB could arrive even if the KB was fully fueled and came at full speed; plus the American carriers at Singapore are closer. 

India:  John is concentrating his troops to move up the interior road of India rather than up either coast where he could have taken Madras and Pangim.  The Allies will try to "surround" the enemy with strongly fortified bases (Calcutta, Bombay, and if given time Madras and Pangim) and then move to threaten John's flank somewhere.  It'll take time to eradicate a Jap army of roughly divisions plus (four infantry, four tank, plus other units) that can rattle around in the old metal bucket like marbles, but time we have.

Operation Uranus:  John has finally pulled together some kind of defense of eastern China, including reinforcing the coastal towns and the strong garrison at Nanchang.  I will try a probing deliberate attack at Nanchang tomorrow.  The Japs have four units at Wenchow (the next city up the coast) and Ningpo (the city after Wenchow).  The Allies have an overwhelming number of units prepping for both coastal cities, but I'll concentrate on one and try to outflank the other.  Both are in proximity to Shanghai, and if taken will (I think) reintroduce the Japs to mayhem in China.  Foochow can offer pretty good LRCAP, but I'd like to use carrier air here too (after the invasion of Formosa).  One nice thing about the Formosa operation is that it's so close to China that both operations benefit.

Operation Neptune:  The American amphibious armada is 700 miles south of Iwo, will steam south yet another day, and then will head nearly due west to Formosa.  John has "run the blockade" from the Philippines to shift some combat ships (CLs and DDs) to China, and there's a good bit of merchant shipping suddenly on the move between the Home Islands, China, and Formosa.  So I think he's identified the next target.  The ships going to Formosa must be carrying supplies, because I don't detect any increase in troop concentrations at the three bases.  D-Day is probably six days away - say November 27.

Japan:  Big raid on Tokyo didn't face any fighter opposition.  The Superforts concentrated on Heavy Industry while the other 4EB targeted some engine and aircraft factories.

SWPac:  I forgot that weeks ago I loaded a NZ Brigade on transports and ordered them to head to Gasmata on New Britain.   I must've meant to check things before they actually went ashore, but promptly forgot all about them until they began landing today.  Gasmata is vacant, so that will give the Allies a base near Rabaul.

Points: (A) 84,112 (J) 56,820; Ratio:  1.48 to 1; Strategic Points:   16,032

[USSAmerica]

I love it.  "Oh, by the way, Admiral, we kind of took Gasmata by accident yesterday."  [:D]

[Canoerebel]

11/22/44
 
India:  The Japanese Expeditionary Army has been abandoned.  This army is strong enough to pose an operational threat anywhere it chooses, so I'm not ignoring it; but neither will it influence strategic operations from this point on.  The Allies are going to try to reinforce Madras to hold that port; I think Bombay is safe now with 300 AV (it's an urban hex, and if things did get worrisome I could transport in reinforcements by air or sea).  Without question Karachi and Calcutta are safe now.  Allied LBA continues to hit what little shipping is left.
 
India's Cost:  To this point, the India campaign has cost the Allies BB Ramillies (lost); BC Repulse (moderate damage); CVE Begum (light damage); a handful of transports; and the planes and troops committed to its defense (but they were "excess" at the moment, so their use didn't detract from any other operation to any measurable extent.  The Japs have thus far lost a CVE (sunk); two CVEs (damage); one CV (heavy damage); one CV (probably light damage); two BBs (probably moderate damage); probably 100 to 200 transports; several hundred aircraft; and an Army.  If John commits the KB now against the Formosa invasion, I think he'll be short four carriers and two BBs.
 
China:  The Allies are reconfiguring airfields to make sure they have good long-distance fighters at forward bases like Pescadores, Foochow, and Amoy for the upcoming operations at Formosa and coastal China.  A probabing deliberate attack at Nanchang came off at 0:1, cost the Japs 1.9k to 6.1k casualties, but dropped forts to 8.  The Allied troops will rest a few days while the airforce continues to work on the enemy positions.  Nanchang can hold awhile, but its days are numbered.  On the coast, John continues to reinforce Wenchow (his most exposed base) and, to a lesser extent, Ningpo.  The Allies will hit Ningpo in huge numbers in about two weeks.
 
Operation Neptune:  The spearhead of the Allied invasion fleet is 420 miles SSW of Iwo and about 720 miles east of the Formosa beaches.  Tomorrow, the ships take a hard turn to the right and head west toward Formosa.
 
Japan:  Big raid scheduled for Toyama's resources tomorrow.
 
SWPac:  As USA America noted, the Allies "accidentally" took Gasmata today.

[Canoerebel]

11/23/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The invasion armada turned west and is now about 560 to 620 miles east of Formosa.  In the turning, the carriers came within range of a sizeable Japanese transport fleet.  The first strike counted 13 ships torpedoed and 1 bombed.  There were a series of smaller strikes following; by the end of the day, I noted 6 MSW and 9 AKs went down, with more sure to follow over the next days.  The American/RN carrier fleet will leave Singapore tonight and head north to assist with the invasion.  D-Day is probably on or near November 28. 
 
Operation Uranus:  All troops are in place and ready to load on transports as soon as they become available (the Neptune armada is bringing about 30 empty AKs and APs that will continue on to Hong Kong and Swatow).  The army at Nanchang needs a few more days before trying another attack.  A few small Allied strikes against Jap shipping at Wenchow showed a strong CAP of 50 Franks, so John is really worried about this base now (and should be).  I'm glad John is working to set up defenses here, because that tells me he's still planning for "down the road" rather than prepaing to surrender.  I kinda want to see what will happen a few weeks down the road when the Allies invade coastal China again.
 
Japan:  The fighter sweep at Toyama only put up 23 P-47s that faced 16 George and 45 Jack, the Allies losing no aircraft and the Japs 19; however, the Japs had enough fighters left to discourage the resolve on the following raid of 170 4EB from Toyohara, which managed just six resource hits.  At that point, though, the fighters were about give up, so the next raid of 222 B-29s did well, knocking out 44 resource points.
 
India:  A raid on the docks at Trivandrum hit six transports and a sub.  The Jap army continues to concentrate on the interior section and is also probing toward Bombay.  The Allies didn't sight any Jap aircraft carriers near Java today, and some of them should be nearing Soerabaja.  I "assume" John will then commit them toward Formosa.
 
Points:  (A) 85,025 (J) 57,037; Ratio:  1.49 to 1; Strategic:  16,474

[Canoerebel]

11/24/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The vanguard of the Formosa invasion fleet is 420 miles east of the beaches; today passed without incident, and there the Allied haven't detected an increase in activity at Jap airbases on Luzon and Formosa.  D-Day should be November 28.  The main Allied fleet carrier TFs left Singapore today and will near Saigon tomorrow.  The Jap carriers have "disappeared" into the area near Soerabaja.  I'm assuming John will commit them to Formosa, but we'll see.
 
Operation Uranus:  John has reinforced Nanchang as will the Allies.  Even if this base doesn't fall soon, it should be outlanked in a few weeks when the Allies next invade Coastal China.
 
India:  Marbles rattling around an empty metal bucket.

[Canoerebel]

11/25/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The Taiwan invasion fleets reached a point 120 miles east of Batan Island without incident.  Tomorrow, a bombardment TF and a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns) will arrive at the invasion hex.  The remaining ships will stand 60 miles offshore.  D-Day is November 27.  No signs that the Japs are loading up nearby airfields.  The two TFs destined for Batan Islands (one carrying a base force, the other a Philippines unit to bolster the defenses) will arrive tomorrow.  50th Indian Paratroops at Foochow is going to try a shoestring assault on one of the Jap islands south of Okinawa, which I believe is undefended.  The American carriers are near Saigon and will be close to Camranh Bay tomorrow.  They will reach the invasion area around the 28th or 29th.
 
Operation Uranus:  John has reinforced Nanchang with two divisions, making this a tougher objective; so I doubt much if any progress will be made until the Allies can invade the next coastal-hex target (perhaps two weeks away).
 
Japan:  A handful of CVs and CVLs sighted at Nagasaki over the past few days (a surprise, because I figured John had sent everything to India).  The Changsha and Shikuka B-29s will try a raid preceded by a fighter sweep from Tori Shima.  The Changsha Superforts will target port facilities; the Shikuka planes will be split between the Frank factory and various ship repair and ship-building facilities.
 
India:  Three Jap Army divisions plus an engineer unit took undefended Poona, a hex from Bombay.  I don't think that's enough to threaten Bombay, which has 300 AV, 9 forts, and an urban hex.  The Allies are about to land two reinforcing units at Madras, and have gathered a stout little force at Cuttack.  It won't be much longer before the Allies begin to nibble at the flanks of the Japanese army in India.  But for now, Japan has this wierd little colony snuggled deep in India's interior.