Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[Alfred]

John 3rd,
 
Sorry, Nemo is correct whereas your assertions do not stack up.  Consider the following.
 
1.  How many Japanese LCUs were stationed on Batan Islands or Pescadores before they were captured by Allied paras?  Just a fraction of the forces collected for the Indian hallucination would have sufficed to seafeguard these bases which based on your screen shot, clearly house Allied planes, no doubt some of the Allied fighters providing LRCAP over Formosa.
 
2.  You claim that for the preceding 7-10 days, 30-40 Allied fighters have provided LRCAP over all 3 Formosan bases.  Really?  So in fact there have been a total of up to 120 Allied fighters dedicated to just LRCAP over Formosa.  It is remarkable that the Allies have any other planes left to provide LRCAP over TFs or bases, or as escorts/sweeps.
 
3.  You provide a screen shot to show 130 allied fighters on LRCAP.  99 of them are dedicated USN fighters.  Thus USN fighters were providing cover over one hex - they cannot be so deployed to cover all 3 Formosan bases.
 
4.  You are aware that you could use Japanese Fast TF with combat ships to sneak in and out, wiithin 24 hours, LCUs onto Formosa from your so adjacent bases.  Oh I forgot such vessels are still struggling back from India with the KB.
 
5.  Not to mention the air units now sitting in India etc.
 
Alfred

[FeurerKrieg]

I agree with Nemo and Alfred - but its your game John, play it as you see fit!

[flaggelant]

the troops would have been most welcome at the landing sites, but what they are doing now is way cooler then just sitting and waiting for the enemy to land (by now getting to know john's offensive playing style, it was almost predictable )

and in time they to will distract several thousands of assaultstrength in order to liberate india (assuming dan will do so)

and to the AC around, Dan has been planning downfall for a while, so im assuming most of his aircraft are being used for the suport of this action. (don't forget about the UK airfleet)

[modrow]

Flaggellant,

ORIGINAL: flaggelant

and in time they to will distract several thousands of assaultstrength in order to liberate india (assuming dan will do so)

you seem to assume that Dan cannot afford to just ignore what is going on in India and continue to go after Japan's throat directly. Even if I factor in the assumption that he is playing for VPs and the VP balance may be influenced by taking India (John - could you elaborate on this aspect of your invasion a bit ?), I believe Dan may very well have the possibility to ignore what is going on in india and use his assects to hit more essential targets. I even think that's what he should do.

Could you elaborate what makes you think my assessment is off ? I must be missing something important. Thanks.

Hartwig

[Nemo121]

What Dan should do is just contain the Japanese cheaply, bomb the resources and let them begin to starve.  Once this happens he will either have another happy hunting period on transports as they come to pick the starving troops up OR he can just have his small containment force go over onto the offensive given that Japanese strength will be reduced by 2/rds due to lack of supplies.
 
Hartwig, I don't think you're missing out on much in your assessment personally. It looks to me like the pace of unravelling of the Phillipines/China front is just accelerating massively due to the lack of troops for garrison duty.

[witpqs]

I think most of you guys are missing the point of John's Indian adventure. It's fun!

[John 3rd]

Wow.  Nice to see the commentary going back-and-forth.  The whole point of this AAR has been to allow that and see what happens.  This is an AAR dedicated to learning. I appreciate the thinking and differing views. 

I feel somewhat bad for my reaction a month or so ago when we had that blow-up over Downfall.  My fundamental issue is the life situation intrudes so much onto WitP that I get too much personally invested emotionally into the game.  Is that stupid??  Probably is but at least I recognize it.  Dan and I have emailed over that.  He felt the same way when his North Japan Invasion went so far awry from his expectation.  Remember how he wanted to quit at that point?

Perhaps you guys are right in my not seeing opportunities where they are.  I am so daunted by the Allied firepower that I feel completely helpless before it at this point.  Perhaps I am so pessimistic about doing anything it has really impacted my playing out the endgame of the war?

Michael and I had a good chat over the weekend and he hit the real nail on the head with this campaign.  It was lost in 1943 with my inept handling of the Japanese economy.  For MOST of 1943 my economy was either froze or limping along.  Supplies, resources, oil, and fuel never stockpiled as they should have.  I never built-up large numbers of reserve aircraft and my pilot quality is just as bad as the Japanese at this point in the real war.  It has taken Michael, Damian, and Brad to teach me how to improve in these areas of the game. 

I look forward to AE coming out!

A couple of specific points:
1.  LR CAP---Dan has well over 2,000 fighters deployed along the China Coast and from his CVs.  Keep in mind that the ENTIRE American AND British Fleet--from CV to CVE--appears to be in the hexes between Takao and Hong Kong.  He has 100s of fighters to spare for their missions.  I cannot train in China due to this massed Fighter situation.  Whenever I move anything into China bases (I usually thy this at 3-4 bases) I usually get in one strike and then all the bases are hit by 100s of 4EB and Figther Sweeps.

2.  His continued amphib assaults along the coast coming up from Singapore surprised me.  This was my fault in not seeing him continue with it.  I felt he would surely go after the Philippines or Java to cut me away from my final resource centers.  THERE was the risk in pulling my expendable army to India.  Dan has not fought the war from a very good economic vision.  Java was the next step after Singapore but he chose the direct route to Japan.  While still ensuring victory, it has allowed me to continue running resources and oil into Japan.  I just had an AK TF unload 50,000 resources at Nagasaki and I have an Oil TF carrying 100,000 Oil just starting to move from Legaspi to the Home Islands.

3.  As to the Japanese Fleet limping home.  That is no longer the case.  They are now tan, rested, and ready and are about to hit him where he isn't in the Central Pacific.  Had the game engine not kicked in with the constant DD refueling I should have been in this position about a week earlier.

Want to cover more in the discussion so readers can think on these thoughts and topics.  It is my earnest hope (as a Teacher) that people can learn from all these discussions and serious debate to improve their games and avoid the pitfalls that have befallen me during the course of the war!

I've asked Michael to jump on from his "Retired Economics Minister" position to add to the discussion.

[ny59giants]

I've asked Michael to jump on from his "Retired Economics Minister" position to add to the discussion.

I've looked back in this AAR and it wasn't until 1 July 43 that I started to assist John with his economy (post #333 and on page 12). Other more experienced Japanese players helped me along. I was a novice at running the economy and without the help of Tracker, the learning curve would have been even steeper. So for the first 1 1/2 years of the war, John did not run his economy efficiently. There may be players who say he doesn't do enough micro-management of it now. [;)]

Some players have spoken of this game being mainly about logistics. It has taken me a while to come to the same conclusion. I think he only has two months worth of surplus Heavy Industry at this point. Back when I first helped him, I would do the actual transport orders and assigning priorities to salvage his economy and send the turn back. As I was re-reading earlier posting, he would not use his transports (AK/TK) in dual roles (oil to Japan and fuel back to bases). He has learned from this and I feel part of this AAR has been a learning tool for many players, which is a good thing.

John's strength is his aggressiveness when it comes to naval and airpower. His weaknesses are economic and land combat. I talk with him at least once per week on the phone for the last few months (late at night when both our cell phone minutes are free). I came up with the idea of a raid to Ceylon and India, but he took it the next step. With hindsight, it could have been done differently or not at all, but neither of us has played this far into a PBEM game and it was a roll of the dice.

IMO, the game ended with the Allies securing the two bases in the Sakhalin. It is now how much longer can he last?? My part time role has accomplished the two reasons I play WITP - have fun and learn. I have done so in many ways and picked up a friend along the way. [:)]

[Panther Bait]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd


2.  His continued amphib assaults along the coast coming up from Singapore surprised me.  This was my fault in not seeing him continue with it.  I felt he would surely go after the Philippines or Java to cut me away from my final resource centers.  THERE was the risk in pulling my expendable army to India.  Dan has not fought the war from a very good economic vision.  Java was the next step after Singapore but he chose the direct route to Japan.  While still ensuring victory, it has allowed me to continue running resources and oil into Japan.  I just had an AK TF unload 50,000 resources at Nagasaki and I have an Oil TF carrying 100,000 Oil just starting to move from Legaspi to the Home Islands.

Well, in Dan's defense, the Japanese are not really in a position at this point to produce much of anything that is a threat to the Allies anyway.

He has bases close enough to Japan to fly heavy fighter sweeps and escort, so all the fighters you produce are mostly planes for him to shoot down. His CAP, both land and sea based, have been shown to be pretty good against any bomber/kamikaze strikes you launch, although you do get in some good hits here and there.

Any new ships are points to eventually be sunk.

LCUs reinforcements are about at an end, right? So you're down to providing replacements.

You're primary benefits are producing supply and fuel (particularly supply since fuel only serves an increasingly less useful fleet), and he has been slowly working on the sources of supply (resources and heavy industry) in the Home Islands/China. In the near future, those to things will be harder to move anywhere useful.

Of course movement into Java/Borneo would have cut supply production, too, but I suspect that Dan is a little more comfortable with his land-based assets (LCUs and LBA) than his fleet. Other than the relatively short-distance amphib and manuevers and bombardments, his offensives seem to involve little fleet presence, particularly his CVs. Maybe he is a little CV gun-shy after the chaotic landings at Iwo Jima and Hokkaido/Sakhalin.

It may not be the conventional strategy, but it seems to be working for him.

[paullus99]

Actually, it seems to be very "Russian"-like in its execution. He has accepted losses far and above anything the allies (USA & Britain) would have taken in the real war. It is very much an "all or nothing" approach & is absolutely overwhelming at the point of impact.

John is a fencer - darting around, getting in his licks when he can - while his opponent is using a broadsword or battle-axe. All he has to do is get lucky once & John's fleet is toast.

[John 3rd]

Thanks Michael!  I return the thought as well.

PB--Your estimate of Dan's strengths and weaknesses is spot-on!  I LOVE the navy but suck at land and economics while Dan has a strong talent for Land and is conservative/weak with his Fleet.    He plays to his strengths through this strategy that has worked magnificently for him.  Am not sure of anyone else who has followed this path at all.  Every PBEM is different.  Isn't that the joy of the game?

My LCU are still coming in at a decent clip and they look to dry up about the end of January.  Basicially all the rest appear in either Japan or Manchuria.  Thanks to Damian I have enough armaments and vehicles to equip them when they appear.  Two months of HI Stockpile is good because it is still growing and since I am still getting convoys into the HOme Islands I figure that should reasonably expand to a third month before the wheels fall off.  Figure my economy will function until about May 1945 before collapsing.  That would be about the same in real history.

As to India the amount of AK-AP that are now showing up crossing the Bay of Bengal indicate that I have had an effect on his LCU.  Probably slight but an effect.  Perhaps this attack into India serves to protect Java for a few months?  Not sure about that--just conjecture.  He also has moved about 5-600 combat aircraft into the theatre as well.

Someone commented about uselessly expending aircraft in India.  That is not the case.  I brought 108 Army Fighters, 54 IJN Fighters, 81 IJN Bombers and about 50 Transports.  As the units get in trouble I disband into themselves and thus I will only end up losing one of each unit when all is said and done.  Roughly 250 aircraft would not make a difference over Formosa at the moment...
   

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Actually, it seems to be very "Russian"-like in its execution. He has accepted losses far and above anything the allies (USA & Britain) would have taken in the real war. It is very much an "all or nothing" approach & is absolutely overwhelming at the point of impact.

John is a fencer - darting around, getting in his licks when he can - while his opponent is using a broadsword or battle-axe. All he has to do is get lucky once & John's fleet is toast.

THAT IS A PERFECT DESCRIPTION! I've more styled myself as a Robert E. Lee sort of counter-puncher where Dan is most certainly a Grant...

[String]

ORIGINAL: paullus99


John is a fencer - darting around, getting in his licks when he can - while his opponent is using a broadsword or battle-axe. All he has to do is get lucky once & John's fleet is toast.

And one that knows that he can outlast the fencer...

A dangerous combination.

[John 3rd]

I believe that is pretty much how Shattered Sword described the Japanese Navy...

[SierraJuliet]

This AAR has been a very good read for many reasons.  One thing it, and previous AARs by John, does is provide a great insight into the way John operates.  John, by his own admission, and clearly from the way he plays adopts an aggressive approach executing his war plan.

With the end of this AAR in sight I am wondering about 2 things.

1.  There must be some AFBs out there contemplating taking on John as an opponent.  What strategies would you have in mind against John's style of play?

2.  John, I expect you must have some thoughts here too regarding your style of play.  Do you maintain your style and try and improve on your previous success or do you contemplate a different play style in order to throw off any pre-exising ideas your opponent has on how to deal with your onslaught?

Without letting the cat out of the bag anyone like to comment on future directions?

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: SierraJuliet

This AAR has been a very good read for many reasons.  One thing it, and previous AARs by John, does is provide a great insight into the way John operates.  John, by his own admission, and clearly from the way he plays adopts an aggressive approach executing his war plan.

With the end of this AAR in sight I am wondering about 2 things.

1.  There must be some AFBs out there contemplating taking on John as an opponent.  What strategies would you have in mind against John's style of play?

2.  John, I expect you must have some thoughts here too regarding your style of play.  Do you maintain your style and try and improve on your previous success or do you contemplate a different play style in order to throw off any pre-exising ideas your opponent has on how to deal with your onslaught?

Without letting the cat out of the bag anyone like to comment on future directions?

Thank you Sir.

I know my strengths and weaknesses. This game has taught me so many things. We've detailed some over the last page or two of the AAR but I think the bottom line is now I have a much firmer understanding of the economy and HOW IT WORKS, am learning the Land Combat model better, and have a far greater appreciation of what comes late in the war.

Hyper-aggressive describes my style of play. There is a lot of Bobby Lee in me and that can be good (Battle of Chancellorsville) and that can be bad (Sharpsburg or Gettysburg). I had thought to be less agressive in the 2x2 but it has not been that way. Think I drive Brad nuts saying--HIT THIS---HIT THAT...How about attacking here??? It is in my nature...

All this being said I wonder what AE shall bring...

[John 3rd]

I have not hidden any facet of the ordeal my family and I have gone through over the last two years.  I've mentioned recently that we were examining choices to make while laboring under my current terms of Probation and this is the note I sent to Dan and my 2x2 partners:


I've kept you guys in the loop regarding my legal excitement.  Paula and I went out with our attorney for dinner tonight.  We wanted to chat about making a decision to self-revoke my Probation or wait until our scheduled May 13th Hearing.  At issue is me being allowed to go home and be with my family.  We made the choice of waiting for the Hearing in the slim hope that the Judge will see reality and allow me back home.  If he rules against us then I self-revoke there in the Courtroom and accept whatever the consequences may be.

That is your "Legal Update" in the drama that John calls life.

On May 13th or so I will either move back in with my wife and sons or willingly end this and go to jail.  It is now that simple.  If things go well then there is no disruption to life.  If it goes poorly then I am looking at 6-24 months and paula (my wife) will do an entry in the AARs to let you guys know.

Dan, Paul Layne, and Michael know my case with it ups and downs quite well and they have been invaluable for advice and aide.  The 10-15 of you who have written me directly or PM'd me are great and I truly appreciate it and the support.  For those who don't know what to make of this or don't care, I won't come back to this topic again until mid-May!  (Hopefully) 

[John 3rd]

A little action on Dec 3rd/4th:

[FeurerKrieg]

Best of luck with all your legal stuff, John!

[Alikchi2]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Best of luck with all your legal stuff, John!

Seconded.

And, you know, the interior lines are getting tighter and tighter. You'll be able to perform your Lee impression antics more conveniently soon (especially if you can bring the larger bits of the Kaigun home).