Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns)

Is this kosher?

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns)

Is this kosher?

...and does it work? [:D]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: USS America

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

a MSW TF (though named "Escort" to avoid excessive damage from shore guns)

Is this kosher?

...and does it work? [:D]

Why the heck wouldn't it be kosher? Same thing as classifying carrier TFs as "escort" so that they won't do the crazy "react" stuff that air combat TFs are forever doing.

I think it does work - although I'm not sure I've done it before (or I may have, back during the Wake Island invasion). I've had MSW TFs get chewed up while checking for mines in an enemy base hex - they seem to take unnaturally high losses so that it becomes nearly impossible to deal rationally with a heavily-mined hex, so I think this is a good counter-strategy.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies are close to D-Day in one of their biggest operations of the war, and I realized I haven't summarized what I expect to happen:

1. Formosa: John has 28 units here - 10 south base, 8 middle, 10 north. He can easily reinforce the invasion beach, though my troops are 100% prepped and his reinforcements probably won't be. He'll have a tough time getting NEW troops to Formosa, however, because of the weight of Allied shipping and air in the immediate area. I figure it will take the Allies a long time to conquer the first base, but the ultimate outcome isn't in doubt.

2. Jap Carriers: The Allies will be focusing on defending the Formosa operation for about a week, so John will be able to force a carrier battle if he wants one. He'll be able to load up big bases at Aparri, Okinawa, etc. to lend a hand; but the Allies have alot of fighters close by at Pescadores, Foochow, Amoy, and others places. The fact that P-47Ds can fly LRCAP in big numbers is awfully reassuring. Bring on the carrier battle.

3. Nanchang: John has reinforced heavily so that the two sides are at a standoff here for the short-term. That's fine with me, because this is a holding operation intended to focus Jap attention here, while the next big Allied move with a chance to flank and cause mayhem goes in at....

4. Ningpo (or possibly Wenchow): A massive Chinese army is prepping and awaiting transports. Many of these will come from the Formosa invasion. I'd say D-Day for Ningpo may be as soon as two weeks away. If the Ningpo operation is as successful as I think it may be, suddenly Shanghai is in danger.

5. Knowing that Formosa will be difficult, I briefly considered diverting to easier targets. However, the alternatives (Luzon, Okinawa) are just as tough and aren't close to Allied LBA. It might be worthwhile to use the Americans in China, but I've decided that getting one (or more) bases on Formosa is vital, for it truly severs Japan from her empire and gives the Allies a big base right on the last sea lanes open to Japan proper.

6. John has shown great resolve to continue fighting. The war may last quite a bit longer, or a decisive defeat (especially if it involves the KB) might discourage John sufficiently to persuade him to capitulate. So I can see the war lasting well into '45, or ending suddenly and with not much notice.

[tocaff]

We can only hope that John decides to make you pay for whatever you get up until the bitter end when the level of victory gained by the Allies has become a forgone conclusion.  The KB is an annoyance, but after the India foray it's probably weakened and tired.  Any planes lost by Japan, especially pilots, are crucial at this stage of the game.  I think that making him come to you for a CV showdown is the way to go as long as your LBA can come into play.  He can try to force the issue though by roaming in areas that the IJN become more than just a bit of trouble (supply lines).

[Canoerebel]

11/26/44
 
Operation Neptune:  Everything is in place for D-Day.  The minesweepers swept, though the shoreguns got about six of them; then the bombardment TF came in and did a good day's work; the transports stood one hex south and will come in tomorrow.  The CVEs will stand a hex SW (except for three which will provide close air support along with P-47Ds from Pescadores.  No sign of the Japs loading up airfields (decidedly un-Japanese like, though that may well change).  The American/RN carriers are near Camranh Bay now and will arrive day after tomorrow.  50th Indian paratroops did their thing again, seizing the unoccupied island base Miyoka, north of Formosa).
 
Operation Uranus:  Many Allied transports, especially LSTs, should unload tomorrow.  They will then head to Hong Kong, Swatow, Amoy, and Foochow to load troops for the next invasion in coastal China.  The Hong Kong troops have the farthest to go, so they will commence loading in a day or two.  D-Day for this operation has moved up - it could be as soon as 10 days from now.
 
Japan:  Fighters and B-29s from China and Sikhalin Island hit Nagasaki in big numbers, but didn't catch any carriers disbanded into port.
 
India:  Like marbles rolling around in any empty metal bucket.
 
Score:  (A) 85,499 (J) 57,149; Ratio:  1.49 to 1; Strategic Points:  16,688

[Canoerebel]

11/27/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The Allies began landing at Formosa, and things are going well despite many small craft (and some larger ones) taking hits from mines and shore guns.  I lost perhaps 10-12 MSW, LCI and LSM, with a few CLs, DDs, and CAs suffering light damage.  The assault ships unloaded completely, with the APs lagging somewhat, but the Allies already have 2200 AV ashore, with more to come tomorrow.  John is already shifting units to Takao.  The garrison is now four divisions plus a few miscellaneous NLF and other smaller units.  It's going to be a long tough battle.  I'll try a shock attack tomorrow in hopes that I can get one in before more reinforcements arrive, and hopefully knock off a fort.  But then it will become a long seige in which naval gunfire and aerial bombings will play a big part. 

Like the Siege at Nanchang, a major emphasis of this attack is to hold Jap attention while the Allies mount a quick and major invasion of Ningpo, a key base close to Shanghai.  Because if I can take Ningpo, it threatens the Japanese position in most of China.  Already, a bunch of empty transports have moved to Pescadores. From there, they spread out to various bases on the Chinese coast to begin loading units.  D-Day Ningpo is perhaps 9 to 10 days off.

No sign of the KB, yet, but it could be close.  John has loaded up the airfield at Aparri, and I assume he has done likewise at Okinawa and other bases within range.  The American carriers will either rendezvous with the CVE fleet, or come close, tomorrow.  Allied fighters - especially long-range P-38Ls and P-47Ds - will provide plenty of LRCAP tomorrow, concentrating on the two carrier divisions, but also covering the landing ships at Takao.

Allied LBA will be divided - the B-29s at Changsha will target ground troops at Takao; B-25s along the China coast are supposed to hit the airfield at Aparri; most of the other 4EB are set on naval attack.

Edited to Add: India: Four Jap units have arrived at Bombay with another to follow. I think I have enough to hold the base, but I'll be nervous until I'm sure. Allied units have just arrive at Madras and will move out on two roads to scout opportunities to work behind the main Jap concentrations in Middle India.

[JeffroK]

Dont forget to hit his LCU's moving on Takao with your LBA.
 
Anything to add to the fatigue and chew away at their strength.
 
(In my games I'd send B-29's after them!!)
 

[Canoerebel]

11/28/44
 
Takao, Formosa:  The landings continue without trouble.  The first Allied shock attack comes off at a surprising 1:1 and drops forts to 8.  However, more Japanese units are arriving overland, so the going will be slow.  This will be a long but important campaign.  Allied bombers from China hit the Jap airfield at Aparri, Philippines, with good success, and John has pulled out his aircraft.  He's also using Lingayen.  Jap LBA sortied in scattered, usually small groups against various targets, but scored no hits and suffered high losses.  No sign of the KB yet.  The Allied carrier fleets have merged just south of Takao.  (JeffK, I've had my B-29s targeting land units, but they refuse to fly these missions; there's something about China that makes air strikes unpredictable in the extreme.  Many bombers from a variety of bases in China are now refusing to hit Nanchang.  So I've re-targeted most bombers to hit troops at Takao and all the airfields on Formosa, with a scattering left on Naval Strike.)

Operation Uranaus:  Allied troops at Hong Kong and Swatow began loading today.  I have enough transports currently at these two bases to load 2500 AV, with another 1150 awaiting additional transports.  Another 1100 AV at Amoy and Foochow are awaiting transports that will arrive soon.  So, the Allies will have a total of about 4700 AV slated for Ningpo, which is currently occupied by five units recently arrived (so the Allies should have the advantage in preparation, even though my troops currently average about 25%).  Hopefully, the sieges at Takao and Nanchang, plus the fact that Wenchow would be the next obvious target, will dissuade John from reinforcing Ningpo.  D-Day should be no more than 7 to 8 days away.  It may come in two waves, with perhaps 3,000 AV coming ashore in the first, covered by the Allied carrier fleets and stout bombardment TFs.

Allied Air bases:  The Allied amphibious fleet hitting Takao also brought lots of air bases that are unloading at Pescadores and Amoy.  The Allies now have more base capacity here and at Foochow and Swatow than they have room for.  Swatow just went to level six airfield; one more level and it can hold B-29s that will be in much closer range (than Changsha) to southern Japan.

Air Losses on the Day:  The Japs lost 132 (including 58 on the ground at Aparri) and the Allies 27.

India:  The Japs have all four infantry divisions in India at Bombay and tried a deliberate attack, which came off decidedly 0:1, but managed to drop forts to 8.  John may now divert some armored units there in hopes of picking off this important base, so the Allies will get some reinforcements there too (probably partly via airlift).

[Canoerebel]

11/29/44
 
Operation Neptune:  The Allies are taking a bit of a breather at Takao while Japanese reinforcements continue to arrive.  A few relatively small Jap air attacks met with anhiliation, though one managed to damage two transports at Batan Island.  The Allies face a stiff test here, but that's fine as long as it holds John's attention.  No sign of the KB.
 
Operation Uranus:  The Allied deliberate attack at Nanchang came off at 0:1 but dropped forts to 7.  I hope this worries John.  Nanchang is also intended to draw John's attention.  Transports were sighted at Wenchow, and the number of units there is up to 8.  However, the number at Ningpo remains at 5.  Allied troops are loading and ships should be ready to leave Hong Kong in no more than three days.  D-Day looks good at about a week.
 
India:  More Jap troops are closing on Bombay, while Allied troops are moving out from Madras and Cuttack.
 
Japan:  Big raid scheduled for Tokyo tomorrow.
 
Points:  (A) 85,829 (J) 57,176; Ratio:  1.50 to 1; Strategic Points:  16,688

[Canoerebel]

11/30/44
 
Operation Uranus:  2500 AV at Hong Kong have loaded on transports that shall move north tomorrow.  Two more LST/LCI TFs arrive at Hong Kong tomorrow and will quickly load and sail, giving the HK contingent a toal AV of roughly 2800 AV.  More troops are loading at Swatow, Amoy, and Foochow.  I think the AV from these bases will total about 1,500 AV and these ships shall peal off from base and join the ships moving north from Hong Kong as they near.  Still no signs that the Japs are aware of this plan, and that's as should be.  There's so much "noise" in this region - big seiges at Nanchang, China, and Takao, Formosa; the fact that Wenchow would be the next obvious target rather than Ningpo, and the fact that John might well think these transports are bringing reinforcements to Takao or even invading another Formosa base.  For these reasons, I'm counting on some surprise at Ningpo, which currently has just 5 units.  If the Allies don't gain suprise, or somehow bog down at Ningpo, then I'm really stuck for awhile, because I'll have three big armies stymied.  However, if Ningpo falls - and I think it will - the Allies suddenly are on the very doorstep of Shanghai and threat to cutoff the Jap garrisons at Wenchow and Nanchang.  I like the "feel" of this operation.  D-Day - perhaps six days off.
 
Operation Neptune:  Allied 4EB from China flew in big numbers this turn, but John has heavily reinforced Takao.
 
Fruits of Operation Shooting Star:  This operation recently concluded with the Allied seizure of the big air bases (Hong Kong, Swatow, Amoy, and Foochow) on the China coast.  The "extra" ships carrying supplies, engineers, and base forces that accompanied the Formosa invasion armada are now unloading at these coastal Chinese bases, giving them the engineers and supplies to quickly build up these bases.  In a matter of a week or so, the Allies will have their first level seven airfield on the coast, and that will permit them to base B-29s there to strike southern Japan more readily.
 
Japan:  The big raid scheduled for Tokyo failed to fly; they'll try again tomorrow.
 
India:  No change here.  I think John has decided to try for Bombay while holding a line that will protect his "inner India" concentration.  I would not be terribly surprised if he decided to make some effort to reinforce, or to send combat ships back here to deal with an Allied bombardment TF that is working at Bombay.

[Mark VII]

A bombardment TF hitting enemy troops in its own base is a wonderfull thing. Free no travel reloads every turn and two bombardments a turn if just CL's and DD's.

What is in that bombardment TF by the way?

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
India:[/b]  No change here.  I think John has decided to try for Bombay while holding a line that will protect his "inner India" concentration.  I would not be terribly surprised if he decided to make some effort to reinforce, or to send combat ships back here to deal with an Allied bombardment TF that is working at Bombay.

[Canoerebel]

That's exactly what's going on - the bombardment TF is a CL, CLAA, and a bunch of DDs.

[Canoerebel]

12/01/44
 
Operation Uranus:  The rendezvous point for ships is in the Formosa Straits just west of Tchaikou (the northernmost base on Formosa).  The Allies have more transports available than I had realized, so the first wave should amount to around 4,000 AV, averaging 30% preparation for the target hex.  Still no sign that the Japs are aware of anything imminent brewing, and certainly at this point John might conclude that these ships are carrying reinforcements to Takao or even heading for a second Formosa invasion.  Ningpo, the target hex on the China coast, is now down to 4 units.  D-Day should be no more than four days away, perhaps just three.  I think the Japs are in for a big surprise.
 
China:  The Japs at Henchow tried a disastrous 0:1 attack that cost them 6074/31 and nothing to the Allies.  This should create more uncertainty for John in the Nanchang/Singyang corridor, which would further draw his attention from Ningpo.  50th Indian Paratroops took an unoccupied Kanhsien in an attack solely intended to wipe out fortifications (there were 9 that went "poof") and to create consternation for the Japs.  The base became vacant when John advanced the three units garrisoning the base toward Nanchang.  Meanwhile, the 8 units retreating from Canton are a hex to the west.  The paratroops won't hold Kanhsien when those 8 units arrive, but this does create additional "mayhem" and "noise" while the Allies proceed with their "stealthy" (I hope) and massive campaign against Ningpo/Shanghai.
 
Reinforcements and Synergy:  Units prepping for both Takao and Shanghai are gathering at Hong Kong (and units prepping for Takao are also at Iwo and Wake Island).  It's wonderfully effecient to have all Allied operations concentrated in such a small area, so that the ships used to invade Takao could then head straight over to China to load troops for the next invasion; and after that is done return to China to pick up reinforcements.
 
Secret Weapons: When John employed Frank fighters three or four months ago he mentioned that his next "advanced" weapon would be unleashed in December.  I assume he's talking about the Okha bombs.  I've been hitting the factory at Tokyo for months, but no doubt he still has plenty.  I figure to face these as soon as John decides to attack, if he ever decides to.
 
Japan:  Massive and well-coordinated strike on Tokyo.  The Fighter sweep downs 43 Zekes and Franks at a cost of 4 P-47s; 168 4EB from Toyohara hit resources and the airfield; then 220 B-29s hit Heavy Industry.
 
SWPac:  A NZ unit is landing at an unoccupied Savaii near Pago Pago.
 
India:  Same ol' as both sides try to position to gain an advantage.
 
Points:  (A) 86,259 (J) 57,233; Ratio:  1.50 to 1; Strategic Points:  16,958

[DW]

Nemo recently made a post where he outlined the pros and cons of running sequential operations vs simultaneous operations.

I don't recall which AAR it was posted in, but if it was in John's you may have missed it. If so, perhaps you can prevail on him to re-post it here so you can have a look at it.

The short of it was that each had their place, but in some circumstances it's more profitable to pile everything on one target and crush it before moving on to the next than it is to run simultaneous operations that will take longer to conclude.

This might be one of those circumstances.

Those 4000 AV you've slated for Ningpo should smash John's army on Formosa, and then could be quickly loaded up and moved on to Ningpo.

Don't get me wrong... I like your Ningpo plan and understand the benefits.

But, as you noted, there is a certain risk of getting bogged down and not being strong enough to quickly prevail in any of your offensives.

Wiping out the Formosa garrison before moving on Ningpo would avoid that risk.

Just something to think about.

[paullus99]

In this case, Formosa is isolated - it won't be getting any substantial reinforcements (perhaps a few flown in, but I doubt it). Ningpo can be reinforced & is ultimately the more important target (hence the need to hit it now, before John realizes the danger).

I would also recommend increasing your interdiction operations. At this point, there shouldn't be a single convoy or ship travelling to/from Japan from any of the outlying areas. It seems like you have almost enough bases to complete the isolation of the home islands, but if it looks like you need one or two more - and their are some lightly defended targets - it could be worth the effort.

[Canoerebel]

DW, I did read Nemo's treatise and have kept it mind as I planned this operation.  But Paullaus is right - Ningpo is the real Achilles Heel for the Japs, in my opinion.  IE, I would be better off cancelling Nanchang and Takao to concentrate on Ningpo than the other way around.  But in this case I think Nanchang and Takao make Ningpo easier, because they are masking the true objective.  Maybe John is ahead of me on this, but I don't think so.  And if he isn't, Ningpo is going to hit him right between the eyes and shatter the defensive line he hastily cobbled together after losing most of SE China.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in China on December 1, 1944. The Allies hope that the invasion of Takao, Formosa, and the sieges at Nanchang, Hanchow, and Sinyang have draw so much attention from the Japanese that they don't realize that Ningpo, a key city right at Shanghai's back door, is about to get hit.

[paullus99]

Great map. I see lots of Japanese ship icons. Once you hit Ningpo, would it make sense to send out a carrier strike force to clear them out?

[Canoerebel]

Any of those TFs remaining in the Wenchow/Ningpo area ought to get hit tomorrow since the Allied carriers will be moving that way.  The carriers will, of course, provide protection for the Ningpo invasion.  From there we'll see where they go, though Japan is close to being blockaded by LBA, and will be once I can wrest Takao from the Japs (which may take weeks or maybe months).
 
My carriers are desperately in need of some R&R in port - Hong Kong will provide an excellent place for close-by repairs.  As soon as Ningpo is over, I'll send the most needy carriers there, while the balance remain ready to impose a blockade on Japan or whatever other opportunity may arise.
 
The KB hasn't shown up yet.  I assume John has them close by and that they can descend on the region in short order.  However, it has also occurred to me that he might send it raiding the sea lanes between Midway and Iwo, where there is alot of unprotected shipping; or less likely back to India if he decides to reinforce there (but that's unlikely given his recent experience with Allied LBA).
 
John doesn't want to face the massed Allied carriers and LBA, and I know he's in a tight spot.  I don't know what he'll do.