Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

12/21/44 and 12/22/44
 
Tocaff:  Yes, it certainly seems an Allied victory is inevitable; in fact, it's seemed that way for a long time, although I can't pinpoint when the transition occurred.  Since the Allies drew even in late June '44, the point spread has grown by a steady 10% per month and is now at 1.56 to 1.  At this rate the game should end on points in about 4.5 months, or sometime around the end of April '45.  I suspect it won't take that long, however, since the Allies are about to get four (!) new level seven bases in close proximity to Southern Japan.  Those plus the new B-29 groups that have arrived should accelerate Japan's doom.  Also, the Allies will probably base their carriers at Takao, Formosa; those and the LBA on Formosa, Iwo Jima, and Coastal China should create an effective blockade of Japan.
 
China:  John suddenly augmented the garrison of the coastal base north of Shanghai.  Operation Milky Way was predicated on this base being a "no-contest" invasion; I don't want to get bogged down in another battle, so the troops loaded on transports will probably divert to Ningpo and then assist in the drive on Hangchow and Shanghai.  Hong Kong's airbase is level 7; Amoy, Foochow, and Swatow will all reach level 7 within ten days; and Ningpo is a level 3 that will grow to 7 shortly. At the moment, Foochow is the main Allied bomber base on the coast.  Liberator IIIs have already begun hitting Jap ships near Nagasaki.
 
Formosa:  Takao's airbase is at level 6 and should reach 7 in no more than two weeks.  The troops at Takao are slowly recovering disruption; it'll be awhile before they're ready to resume the offensive.
 
Iwo Jima:  The carrier TF will arrive here from Hong Kong in two days.  Reinforcements slated for Formosa, the island of Miyako, and Shanghai are loaded and ready to return to China after the carriers refuel.
 
Japan:  Big and successful raid on Toyama's resources.
 
India:  The Japs at Poona tried to boot newly-arrived 18th UK Division but failed.  John has a decision - does he hole up in Bombay, try to clear Poona to join his troops to the east around Bangalore, or evacuate north into the interior of India?  The Allied cordon continues to tighten.
 
KB:  Jap carriers seen heading east from Marcus.  What's John up to?  I've check the combat TFs and fighter protection at Midway, Wake, and Eniwetok and they're as good as they can be for now.  If John hits Midway he should receive an especially bloody nose - lots of good fighters on CAP with plenty more just a short hop away at bases like Laysan Island and French Frigate Shoals.
 
Points:  (A) 90,513 (J) 58,029; Ratio:  1.56 to 1; Strategic Points:  17,998

[Canoerebel]

The title to this post is to let John know that I'm aware that the KB is on the move.

[paullus99]

Hmmmmm....heading east from Marcus. Very interesting. Given how many carriers he has, that's got to be quite a load of fuel that he is consuming. Either he is trying another raid or has some specific target in mind. At least this time around, you know he's on the move, which may give you a critical advantage.

If push comes to shove, even if you don't nail any carriers - if you can bleed his airgroups, that's just as good at this point. Carriers without planes are nothing but targets.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in China on 12/23/44.  Via Operation Shooting Star and Operation Uranus the Allies seized a number of cities on the China coast that are already level 7 (Hong Kong) or that can be built to at least that size.  This will allow the Allies to increase strategic bombing of Southern Japan.
 
Takao, on Formosa, is currently a level 6 airfield that can be built to level 9.  This airbase, along with the Chinese bases, Pescadores (a three that I believe can be built to level six) and the Bonin Islands bases should allow LBA to interdict Jap shipping.  This ability, plus plans to base Allied carriers at Takao, should impose a blockade on Japan.
 
On the Chinese mainland, the Allies are besieging Nanchang and advancing on Hangchow/Shanghai.
 
Map to Follow.

[Canoerebel]

Map of the situation in China on December 23, 1944:

[vettim89]

Dan,

Three questions:

1. What is the unit count at Shanghai. Is a amphibious op possible there?

2. Have you set a TF with destination of Nanning yet? Is it possible to hit it from the sea?

3. How fast could your Carriers at Hong Kong put to sea? If John does strike east with KB, they will likely be coming back west chewed up. May give you your opportunity to do away with this menace for good

[Canoerebel]

Three answers to three questions:

1. I have a bunch of American troops prepped for Shanghai that have just loaded aboard transports at Iwo; the carrier TFs will escort these and other troops and supplies back to China. I have considered a direct invasion of Shanghai, but haven't made a final decision yet. The Jap unit count at Shanghai is 5, but there are a bunch more at Hangchow, just a hex away.

2.  You mean Nanking?  I doubt that can be hit from the sea as it looks to be a river base; also, John has been reinforcing Nanking recently, so I won't be heading there.

3.  My carriers are very low on fuel and very high on SYS damage.  I can't afford to go chasing after a more mobile enemy unless I was pretty sure I was going to catch them.  John has plenty of map-room to play with, so the only way I can force the KB to fight is by trapping them somewhere or getting lucky.  I'd prefer to make more certain beneficial uses of my carriers of which there seem to be plenty right now.

If there's going to be a climatic carrier battle, it's going to happen one of two ways:

1. John decides he wants one now and comes after the Allied carriers on terms that he considers relatively favorable; or
2. John becomes so desperate that he has no choice but to commit the KB even though the odds look atrocious. This will happen if I come after a target that John deems critical or if he reaches such dire straits that he's concerned the KB is about to become useless.

I just don't see any profit in chasing the KB right now. I can't catch it unless John wants me to.

[paullus99]

Better to bleed them with airpower. Once you have an idea of where they are headed - and them heading East from Marcus, plus fuel constraints (getting them & back again - since he doesn't know where ALL of your carriers are - so he'll need to keep a reserve for quick manuevering) should give you a good idea of where he will hit.

100 - 200 fighters on CAP at any base should shred at least the first strike & give you time to reinforce.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Better to bleed them with airpower. Once you have an idea of where they are headed - and them heading East from Marcus, plus fuel constraints (getting them & back again - since he doesn't know where ALL of your carriers are - so he'll need to keep a reserve for quick manuevering) should give you a good idea of where he will hit.

100 - 200 fighters on CAP at any base should shred at least the first strike & give you time to reinforce.

That's actually what I meant. If he engages LBA along the way and there is evidence that the air wing is significantly damaged, you may be able to bounce him on an unlevel playing field as he attempts to run home. The other thing is if you found his fuel train some how that would be devastating

[Canoerebel]

How in the world can I bounce him?  John still has alot of bases he can run to.  Say he hits Midway and loses 150 fighters.  Then, of course, I'd love to tangle with the KB, but while my carriers sortie from Formosa or Iwo (wherever they happen to be at the time), John can play cat-and-mouse and move the KB south to Tarawa or north to the HI, or to a bunch of bases in between.  I go off on a wild goose chase with little chance of catching him (the KB is faster).  Meanwhile, plans that would've benefited from the presence of my carriers have to wait.
 
 

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

How in the world can I bounce him?  John still has alot of bases he can run to.  Say he hits Midway and loses 150 fighters.  Then, of course, I'd love to tangle with the KB, but while my carriers sortie from Formosa or Iwo (wherever they happen to be at the time), John can play cat-and-mouse and move the KB south to Tarawa or north to the HI, or to a bunch of bases in between.  I go off on a wild goose chase with little chance of catching him (the KB is faster).  Meanwhile, plans that would've benefited from the presence of my carriers have to wait.

Who knows. Purely conjectural. Do you have any high EXP LBA at say Enitewok or Wake or Midway. If so you might get a 2000 lb hit or two. Even a few well place 500 lb bombs might create a cripple. What about subs? Any in position to interfere. I think you misunderstood me. I did not mean that you should go off chasing KB. I just meant opportunity favors those who are prepared. Unlikely with UBER CAP that any IJN CV might get hit, but are you ready if one or two does? If John suddenly has a bunch of cripples to nurse, he will either have to abandon them (which is what he likely do) or slow way down to protect them.

One of the 7 Habits of Highly Successful People is to proact not react. There is a lot you could be doing right now to be prepared to make KB's life difficult

[Canoerebel]

I'm fairly prepared at each base, though there's a chance the KB can overwhelm stiff CAP merely by weight of numbers.  But John will get a bloody nose if he hits Midway, Wake, or Eniwetok, so we'll see what happens.
 
Lots of subs are in patroling the area.
 
John suffered some damage to his carriers (and lost a CVE) during the India campaign, so I "think" he'll be nervous about approaching any place that has LBA.
 
To tell you the truth, I can really figure out what John might do with his carriers.  For a year now he should've employed them in a "Banzaii! offensive charge" to save the Empire, but he refuses to do so.  Even when I stick my neck out a bit (like the sortie down toward the Solomons about three months ago) he refuses to engage.

[JeffroK]

I would have my carriers at Iwo, there they at least threaten some of his return tracks. At Takao they dont threten KB at all.

I would start smashing his likely return bases, Marcus, Saipan etc so that he maybe makes a rash move to get to a better base.

I am not playing the game, make your choices and go for it.

(Warning, an amphib into an Urban hex will just see your troops tied up forever)

IMHO, destroying KB ends the game, taking Shanghai merely garners points and another bomber base. I would still recommend taking all of Taiwan before Shanghai.

Why arent your CV repairing faster, should some go the HK (If the mod has repair pts there) have you got any spare AR?

[Canoerebel]

My CVs are repairing fine at HK, it's just that they had been at sea for about six months without a break - enough to push SYS damage pretty high; too, many of these carriers were due for upgrades from mid-43, so it's going to take awhile.
 
I've had my carriers based at Iwo for long stretches.  I prefer Takao (I think) as it sits astride the Jap sea lanes between the HI, PI, and DEI, and also permits them to assist in land operations where desired.
 
I'm not actually thinking of landing at Shanghai...I running a bit of a bluff here - what I may do is run my transports right up next to Shanghai to see if it prompts John to panic and pull troops back from Hangchow.  Whether he does or not, though, my troops will land at Ningpo.
 
It's not possible to swap missions at a moment's notice.  Several American divisions are 80% prepped for Shanghai and Shanghai is at least as beneficial as either of the other two bases on Formosa.  So they'll go to China for now.
 
No doubt destruction of the KB will end the game; but it's up to John as to when the KB is committed.  I'm trying to apply as much pressure near Japan as possible, but thus far he's refused to fight - primarily due to the threat of Allied LBA in conjunction with Allied fighters.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm fairly prepared at each base, though there's a chance the KB can overwhelm stiff CAP merely by weight of numbers.  But John will get a bloody nose if he hits Midway, Wake, or Eniwetok, so we'll see what happens.

Lots of subs are in patroling the area.

John suffered some damage to his carriers (and lost a CVE) during the India campaign, so I "think" he'll be nervous about approaching any place that has LBA.

To tell you the truth, I can really figure out what John might do with his carriers.  For a year now he should've employed them in a "Banzaii! offensive charge" to save the Empire, but he refuses to do so.  Even when I stick my neck out a bit (like the sortie down toward the Solomons about three months ago) he refuses to engage.

I cannot agree more. I think he kept thinking that if he was patient that he would be able to sprint them in some where, do a lot of damage, then sprint back out before you could react. You have not afforded him that opportunity. Now he has this massive force that might be able to do some real damage but will not/cannot use it. I think he has become so obsessed with preserving KB that he won't risk it. Perhaps he is correct in that assement. If KB was lost or even badly damaged at this point, the game would be over. Even if you had a near equal exchange of carriers with several cripples, he would lose. You have many places to send your cripples. He has Sorobaeja.

Perhaps the best thing he could do with KB is what he is doing. Prowl the seas to make you worry about where it is or where it is going but refusing all battles that are not of John's choosing.

[witpqs]

Regarding amphib into Shanghai, would that stop his troops from retreating into Shanghai once you bust through the outer perimeter? If so, it might be worth it if you think you can smash the perimeter fairly soon - just land at Shanghai to form an anvil but don't bother attacking. Food for thought.

[paullus99]

Your comments about SYS damage bring up another good point - John's sprints back and forth have got to be adding up. Even if he was fully repaired for the Indian Adventure, it seems like he's been on the move ever since. There are probably only one or two ports left where he can make decent repairs - just keep your eyes open.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/44 to 12/26/44
 
Christmas has come and gone in one of the quietest spells our game has seen in a long time.  But the calm won't last forever.

China:  The big army moving toward Hangchow and Shanghai will arrive at the former in two days.  The reinforcements for Shanghai leave Iwo Jima tonight under escort by the RN/USN carrier TF (which arrived at Iwo unmolested except that CV Formidable hit a mine with little damage; she's ready to sail with 16 SYS).  This reinforcement convoy will head toward Formosa and meet a second large convoy coming out from Hong Kong carrying more reinforcements.  At this time, the Allies aren't sure whether they'll invade a port city north of Shanghai (I'm monitoring activity there to see if John is reinforcing or just landing troops there that move on toward the front lines); invade Shanghai (unlikely, but I may bluff it just to see if I can "skeer" John into reacting), or landing reinforcements at Ningpo.  The Allies tried a deliberate attack at Sinyang on the 26th; it came off at 1:1, dropped forts to 8, and cost the Japs 2x casualties.  A small crack in the dike, but John may be able to plug it by shifting troops around.

Formosa:  The Americans are resting before moving north.

Japan:  Big raid scheduled for Nagoya's Frank factories, but only the sweep came through.  The P-47Ds knocked down 43 fighters at a cost of 14.  I'll try again tomorrow.

India:  Like marbles rolling around in an empty metal bucket. The Allies continue to press in on the Jap perimeter.  It looks like the Japs will soon be confined to Poona, a large army at Bombay (which remains in Allied hands), and some units moving north and northeast on.  Allied units are closing in from all directions and I hope to have all roads blockaded soon.

[Canoerebel]

12/27/44 and 12/28/44
 
China:  The Allied army has arrived at Hangchow 4,500 AV strong and will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.  I think in raw numbers the Allies outnumber the Japs 2:1, have an advantage on preparation, and I doubt the Japs had a chance to build many forts at this post.  The question is - do the Japs have enough to stop a big army?  If so, then I'll have to lay siege.  If not, the Allies should take the hex shortly and then move on Shanghai.  The two reinforcement convoys (one left Iwo Jima, the other left Hong Kong) are to rendezvous east of Formosa in two or three days, stop off at Myoku Island to drop off some reinforcements for that post, and then proceed to the China coast.
 
Oil:  115 B-29s from Singapore hit Balikpan's oil, scoring 52 hits.  The Japs don't have any significant oil producing bases left - Palembang is a shambles and Balik is about 50% now.  That leaves Tarakan, Batavia, Soerabaja, Mili, and Brunei, none of which are large producers.
 
Japan:  The big raid at Nagoya made it on the second try, doing this to the four Frank factories:  59 (30); 6 (25); 38 (0); and 22 (11).  I'm going to try again tomorrow.
 
India:  The Allies reclaimed Hyderabad and a unit is on on the way to a vacant Pangim.  The cordon continues to tighten around the Jap army, which should be low on supplies now and thus unable to fight well.
 
KB:  Absolutely no sign of it.  I had expected a raid on Midway, Wake, or Eniwetok.  If none is forthcoming in the next few days, I'll begin to worry about the sea lanes to the West Coast.  I've already begun diverting traffic to try to keep the area clear.
 
Points:  (A) 90,978 (J) 58,130; Ratio:  1.56 to 1; Strategic Points:  18,354

[Canoerebel]

John has requested yet another do over turn, which I've declined.

This request came about when 283 Frances torpedo bombers sortied from Marcus Island against shipping at Eniwetok.  The Japs lost 263 and scored just one hit, that on an AS.  After John ran the turn, he sent me an email that didn't even mention that attack, but did refer to the many other Allied attacks during this turn: 

"Darned felt like I was repeating this turn!  :>  You know...5,000,000 bombers hit here and 3,000,000 bombers hit there...all blends together after a bit!"

He's right -there were numerous Allied raids including shipping at Balikpan (14 ships hit), big strategic strikes on Nagoya, and various air/sea battles that wiped out quite a few Jap aircraft and damaged a dozen or so Jap ships.

Today, John said that he had requested a re-do via email yesterday, which is odd because (a) I never received any such email, and (b) as you can see from the above email excerpt he didn't complain about the attack then.

I have declined a re-do for a variety of reasons:

1)  This is yet another request, including the second this week.  Barring unusual circumstances, once a turn is done and sent, that should be it.  (I had declined his previous request because I had already finished the turn, spending an hour doing so, when I received his request; I had told him that I preferred to proceed unless it was something really major, and he neve said anything further about it).

2)  I have had many things go awry in this game but never requested a re-do.

3)  John says he had these bombers set to max range of six, but I bet he forgot to do that. 

4)  If we go back a turn, there's no way of making sure that all of the favorable action (the Nagoya raid, Balikpan raid, various air/sea battles, etc.) are re-created.

This may be a game-stopper, because John is irate about the loss of his bombers and I say it's "fortunes of war."  He hasn't replied yet.