The First Team: Take Two!

[John 3rd]

Nice discussion fellas.

I HATE Sir Robin.  Perhaps I'll play the Allies in a game and demonstrate an aggressive defense and its benefits.  Michael is learning just how precarious the Japanese advance can be.  A setback in any one area can seriously slow down if not derail the Japanese advance.  That leads to an interesting thought...with my utter boredom of not working and waiting for my Hearing on May 13th perhaps I should ask if there are any takers for a Big B 1.5 match with me playing the Americans??  We could play for a month doing 1-2 turns a day and see what happens.  Could be wild and crazy.  I'd happily do a an AAR from the Allied perspective as a JFB!  

This is the email I just sent to Brad with the most recent turn:

I am loading an SNLF at Amchatka to grab Dutch Harbor.  How do you think we should handle the North?  I am thoroughly open to suggestions...

Paul had told me prior to this game starting he planned to be more aggressive.  This certainly does not appear to be the case.  Sir Robin does exactly what is happening.  WE will advance much farther then our goals because of a lack of resistance.  When we hit the firewall THEN it is time for serious thinking.

I will move South Seas Force, an Artillery Regiment, and an Engineering Reg to Suva for an Area Reserve.  Think I'll leave 9th Brigade at Christ Church and a smaller Inf unit at Dunedin to dissuade any easy counterattacks.  Many player would expect the North Island to be heavily garrisoned so, therefore, I will make the South Island the main defense line.


As to game topics:
1.  As alluded to above, I am moving on Dutch Harbor.  Will take all the bases west of it and perhaps Cold Bay.  Only place we'll leave any troops is DH/Unmak.  Those are good mountains hexes, as you guys mention, that can be well defended by an SNLF and/or Nvl Guard unit.  Will place a small Base Force at each location for plane support.  Primarily should make them seaplane bases as Brad thinks.  We'll seriously defend the western end of the chain with stronger Troops and Air.

2.  Suva will backstop Somoa, Tonga, and that area. 

3.  CarDiv2 has left Auckland and is moving north.  The other 2 CV TF will form-up as their System Damage comes down.

4.  Have 3 Chinese Brigades at Kwajalein prepping and filling out for Canton.  There is a TF approaching with a large Base Force and several Construction Btn.  When it arrives I will load the 3 Brigades and that will be the Canton Invasion Force.  Will have STF and CarDIv2 provide direct cover.  Might have another CV Division ready at that point.


Have noticed a group of AP-AK TF leaving south Australia and am thinking about trying to hit them with my CVs but think it is too far away and don't want to put more wear and tear on the KB.  Have CV upgrades coming soon and want to rotate the CV TF one at a time for those upgrades.  Nice thing with Auckland is that it allows for me to do this and stay in the arena.  Have to decide what to do.

Reinforcements:  CVE Chuyo arrived at Tokyo on 6-6.  Immediately send her down to join her sisters at Singapore.  CVL Ryujo will join the Fleet in six days.  She will also join the Singapore CVs.

The Support Force will then consist of Junyo/Hiyo/Ryujo in one TF and then Taiyo/Unyo/Chuyo/Hosho in another.  There is always a lot of discussion regarding how to use the CVEs and I really like to make them into a little strike force.  These are the CVs that have harrassed Dan down in the SE Pac in Forlorn Hopes.  They aren't worth much but can do some damage if used right.  I'm thinking of loading each CVE with 9 Zero, 9 Val, and 9 Kate.  They should be able to launch 4 full strikes before running out of Sorties.  Going by this loadout the two TF will carry:

TF 1--52 Zero, 34 Val, and 46 Kate
TF 2--32 Zero, 27 Val, and 32 Kate

Totals:  84 Z, 63 V, and 78 K

Working together the Support Force should have enough power to take on the Royal Navy and give a fine account of itself.

I haven't finalized any of this.  Does anyone have any thoughts on this composition of warships and/or aircraft complement?

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's exactly right, Hartwig.

The Allied "gaminess" is a function of Japanese "gaminess" which is a function of the vast unhistorical foreknowledge that both sides have in this game.  So the game is gamey!

Both sides begin knowing a heck of alot about their own and their enemy's strengths and weaknesses.  As a result, the Japanese side can run amock for well over a year.  The Allied player, also blessed with this foreknowledge, recognizes this and, like a turtle, pulls back into his shell until the time to strike arrives.

Neither side can be faulted for what they are doing - both sides are playing smart and well.  If you think the Allies aren't playing well, just wait until the end of '43.  By then folks will probably be showering them with praises and heaping abuses on John and Q-Ball for whatever ultimately leads to the Japanese downfall.  In both cases, the criticism is Monday-morning quarterbacking.

Think this only goes one way?  In my game with John (Forlorn Hopes), the Allies have assaulted Japanese-held Midway, Iwo Jima, Formosa, and the eastern Chinese Coast without the still very large KB from making an appearance to defend the crumbling Empire.  In real life, the Japs would have committed the KB in a glorious, bloody, and futile Banzaii attack multiple times by now.  But John isn't under political pressure and can evaluate the situation more calmly.  He knows the KB would get chewed up, so he bides his time hoping to wait for more favorable circumstances.  Is this "gamey" as some seem to define the word?  Yes, the real Japs wouldn't have been so patient.  Is it gamey in the sense of being an invalid or shameful stragey in this game?  Of course not.

Once again, I say "pah!" to allegations of "gamey."

I couldn't agree with you more on this topic Dan. Sir Robin would never have withstood the political pressure brought to bear and the Japanese would have sacrificed the KB a year ago in real life. Very astute and correct assumptions.

[Hornblower]

Sir John,
 
I was going to say that your move to Canton is going to require a response from the USN as this will put you directly – and Betty range – of the sea lanes to Oz and NZ.  But then again you have NZ and the allies have to realize at this point any attempt to force transports down that way are for naught. 
 
I find it hard to believe that the allies would allow Dutch Harbor to be un garrisoned!!!  This will allow you to get LB’s set in range of Kodiak and those sea Lanes.  IIRC there should be 5 US RCT’s in this area by now.  Why not hold Dutch Harbor????  Odd

[John 3rd]

Combat Report
June 7, 1942

63 Miles North of Bombay

Commander Okumura Saizo has moved the veteran troops of the 6th Kure SNLF through the DEI, Burma, and now India. Since getting within 100 miles of the besieged city of Bombay, his men have been serving as strafing targets for a large number of British Hurricanes. As he is about to enter the town with his 2,000 men, he gets orders to make camp in an "open and exposed" manner. Stoically accepting the strange order he explains to his men to make camp on a bare hilltop about a mile off the road they have been traveling. He profoundly hopes that there is method within HQ's madness...


Armadabad, India
Having just flown in to the freshly expanded Ahmadabad AF three fresh Daitai of Zeros along with a Chutai of Oscars get their orders for setting an ambush over the 6th Kure. There are smiles all around the veteran pilots. Many have chaffed under the restrictions of not Sweeping the Allied Fighters over Bombay.

Some of these pilots have heard of the good success enjoyed by their brother pilots to the south (where nearly 50 Allied planes were downed while they protected a Surface Task Force) and they want a piece of the British planes...

At about an hour after Dawn nearly over 50 Zero and over a half-a-dozen Oscars take off and fly SE.

4th British Fighter Wing
Colonel J. T. S. Breckerton, III Commanding

For nearly a month Colonel Breckerton has been training his pilots in formation flying, dogfighting, and strafing the enemy. The normally boisterous ready room is somwhat subdued due to the high losses suffered by their American Allies a few days ago just off Bombay's large harbor.

He proceeds through the routine briefing and states that 'wheels-up' will be in 30 minutes. The good Colonel doesn't realize that the British have fallen into a regular pattern for these daily missions. They do want, after all, to be home in time for tea...

63 Miles North of Bombay

Commander Okumura is ordered to NOT break camp and set-up for anti-air defence. His men dig-in and wait. Sure enough at precisely 0930 he hears the drone of nearly five dozen Hurricane engines approaching rapidly. Well...here we go again...

Very quickly the Commander spots Colonel Breckerton's Fighter Wing flying low and fast just over the trees. Just as the lead plane is about to open fire, it explodes in a blazing fireball as well as the next and the next. Fear is replaced in seconds by elation as Okumura sees the skies fill with Japanese fighters slashing through the rapidly disintegrating Allied formation.

The troops around him begin jumping up-and-down yelling "Banzai" over-and-over. A young Corporal tries to keep count of the falling British planes using his bayonet on the dirt. He simply cannot keep up as the British planes fall by the dozen. A senior Sergeant watches the celebration and yells "what do you think this is a ballgame in Tokyo??!! Man your guns in case any get through our fighters!" The troops obediently do as ordered with some grumbling...

It is all over within 5 minutes of the opening attack.

4th British Fighter Wing
Colonel J. T. S. Breckerton, III Commanding

Colonel Breckerton doesn't know what happened to his command. One minute they were lining up to strafe a Japanese ground unit and the next saw the skies filled with Japanese Zeros dealing out death through their guns. While Breckerton managed to shot down an Oscar for his planes lone kill of the day, he cannot fathom the level of this disaster. He had taken to the skies with 53 Hurricanes and now only 7 pilots sit in the Ready Room. In exchange for a single Oscar the Britsh have lost 47 Hurricanes.

This massacre, coupled with the 41 Fighters shot down on the 2nd has fully cut the Allied Fighter strength by over 50%. The despondent Colonel sips his tea and wonders what might happen tomorrow...

[John 3rd]

I have always been curious about keeping track of Sub sinkings in a campaign. Since the page of paper I've been using to keep track of them got soaked this evening I went ahead and put into a file for the computer. Thought people might find it interesting how the Imperial Japanese navy's Submarine Arm is doing with seven months of war under its belt:

The First Team
IJN Submarine Sinkings

Ro-Class

Ro-34
ML Krakatau

Ro-63
AK

Ro-68
AK


Early I-Boats

I-4
AK

I-5
ML Gouden Leeuw
AK Damaged

I-7
AK
TK Damaged
PG Damaged

I-8
AK

I-10
TK


Middle I-Boats

I-16
AK
AK Damaged

I-17
AK
AK Damaged

I-18
AD Dixie
AK Damaged

I-19
AK

I-22
AK Damaged

I-26
2 TK Damaged
AK

I-27
AK
AK Damaged

I-29
AK Damaged

I-53
AP

I-54
DD Evertsen


Minelayers

I-122
DD Electra Damaged

I-124
2 AK


Late I-Boats

I-153
5 AK
AK Damaged

I-154
AK

I-156
AK
AP

I-157
ML Rigel
AP Damaged

I-158
3 Damaged AK

I-159
AK Damaged

I-162
AK

I-164
AK

I-168
AK

I-172
AK

I-173
PC Kiwi
AK
AK Damaged

I-174
AP

I-175
AP Damaged


Sinkings (As of June 7th: 34 Total w/21 Damaged)
AK 23
AP 4
TK 1
PG 1
DD 1
ML 3
AD 1

[Q-Ball]

Glad John is keeping track of Sub kills, because I am not! I-153 just ate a bomb off Bombay, but will live; have to preserve our ACE subs. We should also note that we have lost 11 subs so far. The Allies have lost 25, so that is very helpful; most of those in port.

Combat Report
June 8, 1942

India
John stole my thunder on that hit around Bombay, but that's OK, he told it better than I could. The Air War over bombay starts now, the airbases nearby are almost bomber-ready, and we have plenty of good fighters now. Tommorow we should have about a 100-Zero sweep over Bombay, which should knock down the CAP. We are starting to move bombers in place to start this.

Elsewhere, I-27 adds to the total above, by sinking an AK off Karachi.

Baker Island
Our surface TF sinks 2 AK at Baker, then the transports unload troops who take the base instantly, capturing 12 Coronados. Those AKs must have been there to lift the unit off, not sure why they didn't fly out the undamaged ones. That is the risk of using AVD's as forward seaplane bases; too easy to sink and grab your planes.

Dutch Harbor
The "Invasion" of Dutch Harbor encounters 3 seals, an old fisherman, and 6 hungry dogs. The nearest US base appears to be Kodiak. Talk about Sir Robin!

[John 3rd]

Sorry about stealing your thunder Brad! I watched the entire aerial massacre and it was delightful. Thought a little story telling might be fun to do to describe it. Just sent this long note to Brad after doing the morning turn:

Bombay is ripe for Chaos! With those two Fighter battles we should EASILY gain control of the air. I'd say start warming up those bomber engines! When you do attack with the bombers make sure it is with as many as you possible can. If we can pound the AF on the first day and damage a bunch of bombers then we can keep doing that if they choose to evacuate the field. With Poona, Hyderabad, Ahmadabad, Pangrim, and Mangalore, you should be able to throw almost 900 planes at that place.

Got to find more base support for you though. We have 3 BF coming into Tokyo in days. How about we look around the map for big Aviation Regiments/Base Forces and switch them for the smaller BF? That would help a bunch. Could also buy some Aviation Reg out of Manchuria too...

We think a like AGAIN. I was going to suggest forming up a STF to hit Bombay again.

Watching all those damned TF sailing around in Aden is DRIVING ME NUTS! Once we get our CVL finished and to Singapore how about we do something about that little issue? :> BANZAI! You and I have different opinions on the CVEs. If you put a 27 plane Daitai on one CVE you only get 2 full strength sorties, whereas, if you lower it to 18 planes you can get nearly 4 out of the sorties. Don't think of it as splitting up a Daitai. Those CVEs will operate together so the Daitai IS together--just on 3 ships! (If I could send a wink I would)

Baker telegraphs that I am coming to Canton. Probably see another engagement there with the next turn. Note that CarDiv2 is now going to Pago Pago instead of Kwajalein. A second Car Div will be forming up in the next day or two and moving to join them.

Thanks for splitting up the Brigades in Kwajalein. I didn't think of that. Final reinforcements arrive in 4-5 days and we will then start loading for Canton.

Here is a screenshot of those AKs getting it at Baker:

[John 3rd]

If the Allies didn't know we are serious about Bombay before they most certainly know now.

[John 3rd]

While those Fighters are going down there is another small surface clash as 2 CA, 1 CL, and 4 DD sink ML Oglala at Canton.  This is a serious loss for the Americans since it their only really stout ML at the start of the game.

Dutch Harbor falls in the North without a fight.  The Japanese will back fill from there and probably grab Cold Bay too...

[John 3rd]

More fighting in the seas and the air...




Forgot to note that I-6 got her 2nd AK in as many days at Bombay too.

[heenanc]

You should send in the bombers on airfield attack after the sweeps his resistence would only last a few turns then you might lose a few bombers but the replacements would get ample opportunity rebuilding there experience with Bombay defenceless from the air.

[John 3rd]

Concur. Any tactical thinkers out there have suggestions for basing our aircraft. Brad and I welcome any and all thoughts on this topic!





Notes from June 11th:

The Allies decide to use their SS to mine Mangalore and Pangrim. One of our DDs hits a mine entering Mandalore. Luckily a pair of MSW is in port there and will immediately get to work clearing these.

The heat gets too hot at Columbo and the long suffering CLAA Van Heemskerck tries to leave the harbor but is quickly sunk by a strike of 25 Oscars escorting 42 Betty. NICE!

SS I-6 sinks her 3rd AK in as many days at Bombay! Notice that the Allies have shifted in some aircraft on probable ASW work: Hudsons and Beauforts spotted by our SS there. Gonna have to be careful. A British DD TF is also spotted approaching the Bombay area. Might make for some yummy targets.

Begin loading the Canton Invasion Force at Kwajalein tomorrow. Will detail its composition in a later Posting.

[John 3rd]

Busy day in India filled with both good and bad:

[John 3rd]

In my first named Operation of the war we have the details of Operation Shimakaze (Island Wind). A sizable portion of the Fleet will be used to cutoff and deny the Island to the Americans.

The hope is for a decent number of sinkings PRIOR to the landing. Enough warning could be provided to potentially set-up a Carrier Battle. The remaining 3 CV/CVL at Auckland will sail for Pago Pago in 2-3 Days. By the time of the landing at the end of the month all nine carriers will be together ready for action.

[Q-Ball]

I haven't done much in terms of updates, since John does an excellent job with Maps and descriptions, and pretty much hit the main points:

1. Disappointing air results in India, as we have lost alot of fighters recently (although the Allies have as well)

2. Allies have lost alot of transports at Bombay to our surface ships

3. Readying Sweeps and attacks at Bombay; we now have 2 size-4 airbases within range.

The invasion of Canton Is will accomplish one key objective: With it's capture, the Allies will be unable to stage 4Es to Australia. That should neutralize Australia as an offensive platform, and simplify our defensive arrangements.

I am not sure about John splitting the CV's into two divisions around Canton; if the Allies choose to contest, that will end in disaster. I don't know what splitting them accomplishes; it may get some transports, but that isn't worth it, taking the chance the USN CV's will show up. They probably won't, because I don't think they intend to really defend Canton seriously, but if they did, it would be VERY bad. I would stop the finesse, and just put all the CV's in one hex.

In general, I'm not a fan of splitting KB after the first couple months. During the first couple months, 4 IJN CVs can more than handle the USN CVs, so splitting them makes sense to me, in that you can cover more ground in the Pacific, and wreck havoc, which John did. Once the USN replaces the Buffalos, and gets Hornet and Yorktown, it's time to keep everyone together.

[John 3rd]

Normally I would totally agree with my Allie; however, I think the Sir Robin spirit is so strong here, there will not be any form of a fight.  I could be totally wrong and if so I will admit it.  It looks to me like they won't accept battle at all in the Pacific.  This makes no sense but we will have to see what happens.  There COULD be five CV out there and that would be BAD.  I simply think they are at Pearl resting under about 250 Fighters flying CAP and will stay there...

[ny59giants]

You might get away with splitting up KB for about one to two months, but no further. He gets his shiny new TBs in two weeks and his fighters expand to 36 planes. So, by August he can stand toe-to-toe with KB and trust the "dice gods."

I hope you have Glen subs off the Line Islands playing scout.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Normally I would totally agree with my Allie; however, I think the Sir Robin spirit is so strong here, there will not be any form of a fight.  I could be totally wrong and if so I will admit it.  It looks to me like they won't accept battle at all in the Pacific.  This makes no sense but we will have to see what happens.  There COULD be five CV out there and that would be BAD.  I simply think they are at Pearl resting under about 250 Fighters flying CAP and will stay there...

This is the kind of hubris that leads to a Midway.

So, the thinking is that the Allies haven't fought yet so they're not going to fight now? Wow are you in for a surprise sooner or later.

Your opponents have had six months of game time to gain their equilibrium in the Pacific, to establish their MLR, and to begin work on a counterattack. It's going to happen and you're probably going to be shocked when it does.

Do you KNOW what your opponents have on Canton? If not, you're risking a Pago Pago like disaster (remember your invasion of that atoll in our game?).

Do you KNOW that the American carriers aren't around? If not, you're risking Midway.

[Q-Ball]

Well, I don't know if it's hubris, I think John is probably right and they won't fight for Canton. I questioned what splitting the CV's would accomplish (getting some transports?) vs. what it would risk (being destroyed). Getting some transports isn't worth a 5% chance of suffering a Midway, IMO.

GAME QUESTION: I have had two days in a row of 4-1 Shock attacks on 5 Chinese units stuck between Lashio and Myiktinya. I would have thought they would have surrendered by now (I don't think there is a retreat path available). Why haven't they surrendered or retreated? What odds do you need to get that? Any ideas?

[Hornblower]

The apparent lack of Allied response to the drive in the SoPac and CenPac has gotten me thinking, as no doubt it has you, as to why that is.  This might be kinda far fetched, but here it is anyway.
 
If the CV’s don’t come out now to protect the LOC to Samoa and whatever Islands still reside under his control in that area, then in my opinion, nothing short of a direct attack on Hawaii, Kodack, Anchorage, or the west coast, will prompt a response.  And that being said I am half inclined to say that if the KB was to sail to Hawaiian waters again, the PacFleet would head north and trust to his land based CAP and tremendous AA capabilities to bleed you white.  Then counterpunch. 
 
The Rocky Balboa defense from Rocky 2 lets call it.  He’s going to let you punch and punch, he’ll take it, then when your all strung out, come back with a crushing blow that you can’t recover from – at least so he hopes.    And that blow must come before the Auto-conditions kick in at ’43.  As I see it, assuming the Baker/Canton Island operation goes off as planned, your next western axis of advance is along one of three routes
 
1-     Redirect your forces to continue the advance up the Aleutians’  from Dutch harbor to Kodack with the Ultimate object being Anchorage.
2-     Leave a holding force in the SoPac/CenPac and move the bulk of your offensive force and try to knock Oz out of the war
3-     Take Johnson, and the rest of the Line Islands – which would be the stepping stones to attack Hawaii.
 
Taking the 1st option would incur the heavy operational losses associated to the Arctic, put Hawaii between the KB and anything south, and possibly resulting in a battle at Anchorage where no doubt he has at least 5-6 RCT’s behind fortifications.  And leaving him the opportunity to sortie south and cause some havoc in your shipping lanes.  And if you don’t support it with the KB, based on my strength at Hawaii (see below), I’d send a TF north and try to slaughter the shipping and there embarked troops from the air.
 
Taking the 2nd option won’t, in my opinion, prompt a response.  He has to know he can’t get any Cargo TF’s there anyway, so why worry or react to something that will ultimately cost him heavily?
 
The 3rd option I think is what he wants you to do.  Which if I was in his shoes, so would I.  At this point in the game I would want you to hit me at my point of strength, which is pearl.  A High attrition battle of the KB verse land based air.  And if he’s been training them up and moving what was earmarked for the southern front to here, there must he 400+ fighters, and equal or greater amount of LB’s, along with the Marine SBD’s and F4F’s that would normally be found near Nouema.   Same with my Land units.  There must be at least 6 Divisions there sitting behind level 9 fortifications with tons of support units.  Yep, I’d like to have you take a crack at that.  Because at this point, what other options do I have?
 
Also at this point he has to be thinking this. How many Units has he committed to garrison duty on the locations taken?  How many AK’s has he committed to supplying these units.  There has to be an air umbrella – a mobile attack force – in place in order to protect and utilize what has been taken.  How many units are committed to that?   Lastly there must be a mobile Surface TF to act in conjunction with your Air.  In 1 month I’ll have 6 USN CV’s with upgraded airgroups, TBF’s and increased AA that I can send in to the south.  Not take the islands, because slogging my way back island by island will add months, but to Sink the Cargo TF’s and again, bleed the air groups white.    I would have the area of Truk west to Canton swimming with Subs to attrite your shipping.   Long term objective being to make the losses necessary to support the new gains unsustainable by the IJN.  
 
All said and done his counterpunch will not be in the south but along the Axis of Wake-Marcus, and Wake Enewetak-Wotho -Ujae. Anything west of that line would be cut off and left to wither on the vine.    If that happens how many Troops/Units would be, for all intents and purpose, knocked out of the war?