Diplomacy Volatility

[06 Maestro]

I am still leaning this game, so this observation is not meant to slam the system, but....

It seems the AI controlled nations are a little quick to change sides. I can understand that if a nation surrenders, or some such other treaty obligation that it must immediately stab a recent former ally in the back. I have been able to form some decent coalitions for my purposes, only to see my grand strategy unwinding the very turn the treaty expires.

I suppose the obvious solution is to keep proposing treaties before the old ones expire.

I currently do not see anything indicating a "cooling off" period or a slow progression towards war by former allies. Perhaps I am missing it. A "how to" which covers diplomacy by a CoG expert would sure be nice.

[TheOx]

See Operation Barbarossa 1941. [:D]

[06 Maestro]

ORIGINAL: TheOx

See Operation Barbarossa 1941. [:D]

That does not remotely resemble what I'm talking about, but thanks for your interest.

After about 5 hours of play today I've gotten a better handle on what it is doing-sort of.

[TheOx]

What no Austrian painters? [:)] I saw a bit of this in the original CoG, but its been absent (at least in my games) in this instance. Lot of war declaring by all sides it seems though.

[06 Maestro]

ORIGINAL: TheOx
Lot of war declaring by all sides it seems though.

Yes, quite a bit. Keeps it interesting, but sometimes a little too much.

The AI did pull a good fast one on me today. I'm not sure if this just luck, or it was a conspiracy by the AI- (that would really be something). Still playing as Turkey from 1792-its now 1803. Things were going well enough-I was in 3rd place-and generally at peace. I received an offer to ally with Sweden, France and England against Austria with a 3 month delay. Austria was my natural target and was in a very healthy (dangerous) lead. I accepted. The very next turn Russia declared war on Turkey. as Russia was still in a major fight with Sweden I thought the best thing I could do was to press a major fight with them. Within a couple of turns I get news that Sweden had surrendered. So now I have to prepare for the whole Russian Army, but was not too worried about Austria as France was in the picture.Just as my somewhat depleted units were almost back to Besserabia I was notified that France had just surrendered to Austria. Both the Russians and the Austrians have refused a truce. Turkey is now bankrupt, losses exceeding a vastly increased draft, no money for new units of any type. I will soon experience surrender-and I better make it quick.

This is not a complaint mind you-I am rather impressed with this AI for setting me up. Perhaps the speed of the changing relations is the method that is used to create this type of situation-good fun regardless. Next time I will be more careful.

[Anthropoid]

I have to agree that, the rapidity with which the AI polarity and alliance permutations shift around has seemed a bit quick to me in the little bit I've played the game. I should note, I have only played France, using the 1792 (or whatever the earliest date is) scenario. I started up four or five games (figuring things out) and last I played I was up to about 1798 and kicking butt (on Normal diffs with 10K to win).

I think three things need to be taken into consideration here:

1) The game is not "Civ" or any of the other contemporary games in which you build up 'friend points' with the AI, more on this below.

2) European history is not my strength, but if I may speculate: if there is one general rule about alliances and conflict in the European post-Mid-Ages all the way up to the modern era, that would be: fluidity, dynamism, and 'back-stabbing.'

Wife and I have been watching 'The Tudors' so I'll refer to this as one of my primary 'sources' here (see I told you European Hist is not my forte [:D] but in any event, that show is not TERRIBLY in error). First Henry is friends with Francis I & Pope Clement and lukewarm with Emperor Charles v . . . Then he is friends with the Emperor and enemies with the French King and lukewarm with the Pope . . . Then he is friends with Francis again, enemies with the Pope and (supposedly) friendly with the Emperor . . . Then enemies of the Pope, enemies of the Emperor and lukewarm with the French . . . rinse, shift permutations, repeat seemingly ad infinitum.

My understanding of European history is that this is the rule, not the exception.

3) (and this one links with #2 above) The AI is motivated mostly by Glory. Here I think it is possible to argue that the AI is in some way 'flawed,' but then AI are ALWAYS flawed, and to be fair, one should acknowledge that the AI in the game are one possible setup out of many. To try to do justice to several of them is probably beyond scope, and beyond AI decision-algorithm possibilities, though pehaps mods could explore alternative motivational focii.

The mechanics of motivational focii for the AI that the devs decided on was not one ala Civ, in which you try to 'build a society to stand the test of time' (which would have been TOTALLY wrong for this era) but rather the one in the game: a coven of megalomaniac, shifty, pampered, corruptable, selfish, back-stabbing, in-breed, devil-spawn, European aristocrats 'playing games' with their kingdoms and the lives of the people under their dominion.

I'm not sure the full impact of that nature of the game is at present coming through in the look and feel of the game, but that is effectively what this engine simulates IMO.

When you look at it from this perspective (instead of the Civ perspective) the AIs fickle, shifting, self-serving, but predictably unpredictable behavior makes better sense. Lets face it, there are more mediocre if not terrible leaders in European history than there are brilliant (ala Civ "Winners") leaders.

Henry VIII had (or easily COULD have had) literally the whole of Europe wrapped around his pinky and what does he do? Repeatedly? Piss off literally everybody for the sake of chasing hot babes, gradually alienate not only the other leaders of Europe, but also his court, and his kingdom, and slowly but surely help to breath a Holy War to life in his Kingdom. Why? Because he was just plain stupid? No.

Simply because he was short-sighted, selfish, and self-serving. He was not primarily motivated by "winning the game" for his Kingdom. He was primarily motivated by his own personal interests (getting the next sweet thang into the sack, getting a male heir, and having fun [hunting, sporting, etc.]). When you look at the period the game is meant to simulate from this perspective, I think all of the volatility in AI behavior makes more sense.

What can make it seem less unfun is if you EXPECT it, and tend to think of those little portratis of the 'other leaders' you see on the screen in these terms instead of the terms of a politically-correct, Disneyfied game like Civ in which the prejudice, the selfishness, the antipathy, the ego, and the generally visceral selfish bile which has tended to motivate historical actions by leaders have been sterilized into a rated 'G' game dynamic.

[Ursa MAior]

Second to volatility.

As France I am allied to Spain in 1804. Austria DOws me on some german minors (BTW excellent AI! Seeing I am getting stronger there -heavy subsidizing- Austria jumped on me!) She got beaten up in 2-3 major battles. Surrneders. Then Russia and friendly Sweden (if that is what a smiley means in diplo screen) DOWs me.  Prussia is tempted to let them pass, I offer her alliance. She chooses me instead them, and at the very same time Spain (with no treaties at all other than mine!) cancels our alliance! Why?

As a side note Austria surrendered yet accepts no other terms than simple peace. I beat her up pretty well, still hold Karlsbad and Veneto while she somehow attached to herself  Munich which was a vassal or what of mine (her flag in fornt of mine).

Pls help.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Ursa MAior

Second to volatility.

As France I am allied to Spain in 1804. Austria DOws me on some german minors (BTW excellent AI! Seeing I am getting stronger there -heavy subsidizing- Austria jumped on me!) She got beaten up in 2-3 major battles. Surrneders. Then Russia and friendly Sweden (if that is what a smiley means in diplo screen) DOWs me.  Prussia is tempted to let them pass, I offer her alliance. She chooses me instead them, and at the very same time Spain (with no treaties at all other than mine!) cancels our alliance! Why?

As a side note Austria surrendered yet accepts no other terms than simple peace. I beat her up pretty well, still hold Karlsbad and Veneto while she somehow attached to herself  Munich which was a vassal or what of mine (her flag in fornt of mine).

Pls help.

I never pay attention to smileys, they all hate me anyway, I just know it [;)] No matter how much that face smiles, if you get ahead they will attack you eventually.
As to why Spain cancels the alliance; has she just recently been to war with anyone on the other side? Might be that Spain cannot DoW one of the enemy nations, and hence cancels your alliance for minimum glory loss in the long term.

The Austrian surrender strikes me as odd if you have defeated her in a few major battles (unless you have lost as many yourself?) and you hold more provinces of hers than she does of yours...
How many "surrender points" did you end up with?
And was it a complete surrender or did you accept a partial?

Terje

[Anthropoid]

What you can get when they surrender is a function of how many "surrender points" you accumulate during war. This is shown in the treaty window when you writeup your terms of surrender. For example 1,500 points will not allow much in the way of additional punishment, but 8,500 and you can easily cripple the entire nation with repayments, forced scuttlings, forced demilitarizations, etc. The number of points you get at the time of surrender is influenced by a couple of different specifics whose details I cannot remember, but what it basically boils down to in general is: the more of a whupping you give them on the battlefield, the greater the number of points you have to force them to concede to your wishes when they surrender.

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Anthropoid

The number of points you get at the time of surrender is influenced by a couple of different specifics whose details I cannot remember

+number of cities you capture multiplied by 1000 - number of cities the enemy has ccaptured multiplied by 500
+if you are an empire
+if the nation you defeat is an empire
+your diplomats legal skills added and multiplied by 10 - enemy diplomats legal skills added multiplied by 5
+your number of diplomatic actions multiplied by 1000 - enemy number of diplomatic actions multiplied by 500
+4000 VP for surrender

These numbers are halved for limited surrender.
And then you need to do enough damage to the enemy armies. To gain max VP in a war against France as an example you need to kill 88.000 French troops. If you only kill 44.000 your VPs are halved.

Listed in the manual under point 5.5, pg 77 and 78 [;)]

Terje

[Joram]

Just want to note that when a nation surrenders, it can often be forced into a war and/or alliance against you. No doubt this is what you see some of the time but as Anthropoid pointed out, it is also influenced by who's in the lead (though not heavily I believe until you see the 'All Europe is alarmed' message).

[Ursa MAior]

OK THX for the help. 

Edit
VP was 11,500. I forbid Austria to ally with Prussia and Russia in the next 5 years eating up all points. But my ally Prussia is still at war with her and is loosing fast against Austria. Is there sometinh I can do for her?

ThX for your help in advance.

[twitter]

I had one strange thing happen.  I was playing as Sweden and Poland asked me to protect them so I said yes.  I spent the next few minutes arranging their forces and positioning them for the eventual war with Russia who were building up troops on their border.  I clicked end turn and the very next turn I was informed that Poland is kicking my troops out and is no longer needing my protection.  I even built them a depot!  Well, I was so stunned that I didn't even bother invading.  I felt if they think they can handle Russia on their own best wishes!  I'm still confused though as to why they changed their minds in the course of one turn...