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[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

Are you subtracting 2 from the die roll even if the French BB's and CV are in French Metro ports ?

Usually at least one monor becomes Free French.

Lars

I was looking for the actual probabilities (both with and without subtracting 2).

[peskpesk]

So it’s very risky to runaway with the French fleet than not to, and the risk of no territories going Free France is less than 0.31% if staying with it in a Metropolitan French port!

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk



So it’s very risky to runaway with the French fleet than not to, and the risk of no territories going Free France is less than 0.31% if staying with it in a Metropolitan French port!

This is not as simple as it looks here.

The rule says "If Free France controls no minor countries, she suffers the effect of complete conquest (see 13.7.1) immediately".

The important word here is : "minor countries".

Unfortunately for Free France, the Vichy Administrative Group called "All Pacific map minors & territories" often only contains Territories (as New Caledonia), and no Minor country.

Same for the Vichy Administrative Group called "All Asian map minors & territories". It only contains Territories.

Same for the Vichy Administrative Group called "All other territories & minors". It generaly only contains French Somaliland, which generaly is already Italian conquered when Vichy comes.


So generaly it only boils down to : will Free France controll one of the following :
- Morocco, Algeria & Tunisia (90% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- French West Africa (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- Syria (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- Indo-China (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled) (only to be Japanese conquered later if turning Free French, so delaying the conquest of a few turns)
- Madagascar (70% Vichy / 90% if fleet fled)
- French Equatorial Africa (20% Vichy / 40% if fleet fled)

So the chance of Free France being in deep trouble is :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 = 6.45%
1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.4 = 36% (if french fleet fled France)

If you count that having only French IndoChina is close to be conquered already, that comes to :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 = 8.06%

So this is far from a rare occurence indeed.

But this is not the end, as Free France immediately exist again when Vichy France is collapsed, which happens one day or the other, the temptation or the need for Germany is too high.

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I have been testing forming Vichy a lot recently, 30 to 40 times a day. What I was surprised by was the number of times the French have no alternative home country and therefore France is conquered completely after the formation of Vichy. Has anyone worked out the probability of that happening?

If my probabilities of previous post are right, you should have had 2-3 occurences of a Free France immediately conquered, with 30-40 tests. Was it that that you observed ?

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

ORIGINAL: peskpesk



So it’s very risky to runaway with the French fleet than not to, and the risk of no territories going Free France is less than 0.31% if staying with it in a Metropolitan French port!

This is not as simple as it looks here.

The rule says "If Free France controls no minor countries, she suffers the effect of complete conquest (see 13.7.1) immediately".

The important word here is : "minor countries".

Unfortunately for Free France, the Vichy Administrative Group called "All Pacific map minors & territories" often only contains Territories (as New Caledonia), and no Minor country.

Same for the Vichy Administrative Group called "All Asian map minors & territories". It only contains Territories.

Same for the Vichy Administrative Group called "All other territories & minors". It generaly only contains French Somaliland, which generaly is already Italian conquered when Vichy comes.


So generaly it only boils down to : will Free France controll one of the following :
- Morocco, Algeria & Tunisia (90% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- French West Africa (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- Syria (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- Indo-China (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled) (only to be Japanese conquered later if turning Free French, so delaying the conquest of a few turns)
- Madagascar (70% Vichy / 90% if fleet fled)
- French Equatorial Africa (20% Vichy / 40% if fleet fled)

So the chance of Free France being in deep trouble is :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 = 6.45%
1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.4 = 36% (if french fleet fled France)

If you count that having only French IndoChina is close to be conquered already, that comes to :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 = 8.06%

So this is far from a rare occurence indeed.

But this is not the end, as Free France immediately exist again when Vichy France is collapsed, which happens one day or the other, the temptation or the need for Germany is too high.

The Vichy Administrative Group called "All other territories & minors" generaly contains French Guyana which are almost impossible to conquer for the Axis and should be included in any Vichy calculations.

If you get French IndoChina as the only Free French country you can always declare war on Vichy and liberate a Vichy Territory. The most have no defence making a liberation easy and thus creating a safer location for the Free French.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I have been testing forming Vichy a lot recently, 30 to 40 times a day. What I was surprised by was the number of times the French have no alternative home country and therefore France is conquered completely after the formation of Vichy. Has anyone worked out the probability of that happening?

If my probabilities of previous post are right, you should have had 2-3 occurences of a Free France immediately conquered, with 30-40 tests. Was it that that you observed ?

I believe Peter is correct and French Guyana is a possible new home country. That would change your odds.

I saw France be completely conquered 3 or 4 times. But I run this test a lot and I did not keep count of anything. [The code that perfroms this check looks correct.]

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: composer99

My Axis opponents in our current face-to-face games declined to create Vichy France: they are going for incomplete conquest so they can invade Spain.

I have been testing forming Vichy a lot recently, 30 to 40 times a day. What I was surprised by was the number of times the French have no alternative home country and therefore France is conquered completely after the formation of Vichy. Has anyone worked out the probability of that happening?

I have. As long as the BBs are in home ports, the probability is about 6%.

That is without French Guyana. We only use the mini-map. With French Guyana, it would be around 5%.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: composer99

My Axis opponents in our current face-to-face games declined to create Vichy France: they are going for incomplete conquest so they can invade Spain.

I have been testing forming Vichy a lot recently, 30 to 40 times a day. What I was surprised by was the number of times the French have no alternative home country and therefore France is conquered completely after the formation of Vichy. Has anyone worked out the probability of that happening?

I have. As long as the BBs are in home ports, the probability is about 6%.

That is without French Guyana. We only use the mini-map. With French Guyana, it would be around 5%.

Thanks.

[christo]

Things get worse for the French if you play the Fascist Tide scenario. I dont have the figures in front of me but i believe that without the pacific and asian maps the chance of no Free France home nation increases to a not insignificant 11%.

Cheers

Chris

[Froonp]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: Froonp
The rule says "If Free France controls no minor countries, she suffers the effect of complete conquest (see 13.7.1) immediately".

The important word here is : "minor countries".

Unfortunately for Free France, the Vichy Administrative Group called "All Pacific map minors & territories" often only contains Territories (as New Caledonia), and no Minor country.

Same for the Vichy Administrative Group called "All Asian map minors & territories". It only contains Territories.

Same for the Vichy Administrative Group called "All other territories & minors". It generaly only contains French Somaliland, which generaly is already Italian conquered when Vichy comes.


So generaly it only boils down to : will Free France controll one of the following :
- Morocco, Algeria & Tunisia (90% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- French West Africa (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- Syria (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled)
- Indo-China (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled) (only to be Japanese conquered later if turning Free French, so delaying the conquest of a few turns)
- Madagascar (70% Vichy / 90% if fleet fled)
- French Equatorial Africa (20% Vichy / 40% if fleet fled)

So the chance of Free France being in deep trouble is :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 = 6.45%
1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.4 = 36% (if french fleet fled France)

If you count that having only French IndoChina is close to be conquered already, that comes to :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 = 8.06%

So this is far from a rare occurence indeed.

But this is not the end, as Free France immediately exist again when Vichy France is collapsed, which happens one day or the other, the temptation or the need for Germany is too high.

The Vichy Administrative Group called "All other territories & minors" generaly contains French Guyana which are almost impossible to conquer for the Axis and should be included in any Vichy calculations.

If you get French IndoChina as the only Free French country you can always declare war on Vichy and liberate a Vichy Territory. The most have no defence making a liberation easy and thus creating a safer location for the Free French.

You're right indeed, I overlooked French Guyana (80% Vichy / 100% if fleet fled).

So the chance of Free France being in deep trouble (having no minor country to establish Free France) is :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 x 0.8 = 5.16%
1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.4 x 1.0 = 36% (if french fleet fled France)

If you count that having only French IndoChina is close to be conquered already, that comes to :
0.9 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.2 x 0.8 = 6.45%