Surprise! 3 day turns vs Japan AI

[Monter_Trismegistos]

... or wine in case of French ship

And BTW... is it really La Triomphant in database instead of Le?

[dr. smith]

Finally worked my way through some CTDs (DirectX related, not game!), everything OK so far (kudos Bill Dolson).

Current sitrep is noose is tightening around Clark AB, Lingayen just fell but manage to get most out of Manilla before IJA could get to Clark and cut them off. Manado in Celebes about to be invaded. KB is providing backup, about 5 hexes SE of Davao. In Malaya, Taiping fell 2 days ago, then I noticed an Jap air raid on ground units in the Kra penisula - discoved 2500 Lost Indian Boyz once defenders of Alor Star - guess they blended into the Jungle too well. Oh well, will do something loony and try to march them up to Burma - certainly won't be expected.
===

I thought I'd go through and show where I'm at as far as getting supply to the Pacific bases. The Indian Ocean is a whole 'nother beast, will address later. Let's just say I FINALLY caught the TF with the 18th UK Division just 3 hexes W of Batavia before rerouting it to India - with plenty of leeway for stray Betties. Totally never noticed it before [:-]

Time is 28 December - primary focus is Midway, Pago Pago, Noumea.

Midway: 940 Sply, 240 Fuel, has 4477 troops, building Forts and Port up
--has 1 xAK unloading 5250 Supply
--PC + 2 TKs loading 14K fuel in Seattle
--PC, AP, 2 xAKLs - 205th Cst AA Rgt + 3500 supply, fueling in Pearl - will put garrison just over limit with 6200 on a 6000 limit island. Hmmmmm.

Canton Island - guarded by CAs Chester & Chicago + 6 DDs - continuing Intel about Invasion - 1 already sunk in toto.  No extra troops slated yet, TK unloaded fuel so has 8000 fuel and only 68 supply
--2 xAKs, 2 xAKLs in port unloading 9850 supply

Luganville - unloading 114th USAAF BF - this is a screwup on my part, unit has no engineers - will reload and bring back to Noumea

Pago Pago - will be my fuel hub for runs to Oz, SoPac, due to already has 3 port, expanding AF (quicker than port) is 96% of a 2 - need to up it to reduce possible spoilage.  At Port-3, AF-2 think I can put 51k fuel and 80k supply without spoilage.

Has 385 supply, 4k fuel.  Garrisoned by 104th BF, 111th USN BF, 7th Marine Def Bn, Samoan Marines, and currently unloading 47th CBs.
-- in port, 2 xAPs with most of 47th SeaBees and 2100 Supply
--PC + 4 TKs bringing 37k fuel - halfway between Johnston and Big Island
--6 TKs bringing 66k fuel - (300+ miles NE of Pearl) may split off some to send to Noumea.
--Rest of 47th CB with 13.7k suppply - 6 hexes N of Pearl

Pearl Harbor - has 163k supply, 590k fuel
--DD, 3 PCs, 6 TKs w/63k fuel

Sydney - 38k fuel (at Palmyra now)

Noumea - will be my big SoPac base. Has 910 Supply, 2600 Fuel.  Garrisoned by 115th BF, New Caledonia Def, and 2 Arty Bns (being unloaded).  since its only a 2 size port, will get the Port Svc detachments there - sending 2.

--2 AGs with 4150 supply (docked)
--AP + xAK with rest of Arty Bns - not docked, waiting for 2 AGs to get done.
--AG, 3 xAK, 2 xAKLs with most of I US Amphib Corps HQ + 1720 supply - 3 days out of San Diego
--xAK xAKL - rest of I Amphib Corps + 3600 supply - 1 day behind above TF
-- PC, 2 AMs, AVD, 8 xAKs - 26k supply, II US Ftr Cmd HQ, 206th Coast AA, B Det US Port Svc = about 20 hexes N of Pearl
--AS, 2 AVDs, AVP, 2 APs, 3 AKs - 8 hexes NW Palmyra - 2nd Marine Def Bn, 101st USN BF, C Det US Port Svc, 14.7k supply
--AVP, AG, 2 xAP, 4 xAK = 8 hexes SW of Pearl - 8th Marine Regt, 110th USA BF, 21k supply
-- 3 xAK - with 6200 supply soon to leave Wellington.
--2 xAP, 3 xAK - 113th USAAF BF, 50th PF/11th PS w/25 P-40Es - loading in San Diego - P-40s may go to Brisbane - then to PM instead of staying in Noumea.

San Fran
Have some serious Army hardware (assigned already to unrestricted HQs) at San Fran that's needs a decision on where to go:
--41st Inf Div - Brisbane
--34th and 161st Inf Regiments - at least one to Noumea area
-- 2 CDs - Luganville/Efate?
--808 EAB - where I need to build fast - probably Noumea
--2 FArty Bn - 1 Brisbane/Port Moresby, maybe both
--Cst AA Rgt - Brisbane/PM
--Tank Bn - Brisbane/Noumea
--112th USA BF - Brisbane

Also, since Port Moresby is mentioned, used almost half my PP to free up the 2nd Ozzie Cav Brigade, since it does not have militia in it - was about 275 PPs.  TF is about 4 days out of PM on 4 xAPs - let's hope they can unload quick - still no Fighters in PM.

[Fishbed]

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos

... or wine in case of French ship

And BTW... is it really La Triomphant in database instead of Le?

Ouch! Thiz meanz WAR!

[Rob Brennan UK]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

The key to safely moving damaged ships is to keep them at Pearl until the remaining float damage is only major float damage.  Ships with no minor damage are patched up for moving with only a minor risk for taking on more water when at sea.  If you move ships with minor float damage, the ship may take on more water when at sea.

Bill

AH v interesing .. i was wondering how that worked .. thanks for the info

[dr. smith]

It's now 9th of January - the biggest discovery playing 3 day turns is the surprise factor (again).  Basically trying NOT to be surprised when the KB strikes deep in your waters during those 3 days - must be paranoid.

DEI
Kido Butai showed up east of Tarakan, which I thought would be just to support the invasion of Ternate, Morotai in the Moluccas.  Nope.  In 3 days it wrecked havoc down the south side of Borneo, into the Java Sea, then south of Makassar and Kendari.  A little TF picking up a Dutch Bn was obliterated at Bandjarmasin, some AVP moving to Kendari, some DDs in Balikpapan, all gone.  To make matters worse, it was a pincer attack around both sides of Borneo, with a CVL coming down the West side, joining up with KB to join up for strikes on Soerbaja, before moving off ESE towards Kendari.  Now they're just S of Kendari, with a heading of SE.  Evacuation of Darwin will commence - they'll go westward.  Got reprieve, KB went into armpit of Celebes, W of Manado, E Donggala, looks like still SE heading. 

Soerbaja, Tjilitap, Batavia have been emptied of shipping, most going to Ceylon or Cape Town, this primarily due to the next item.

KB wasn't the biggest problem, Miss Betty came a calling.  Had tried getting one more fuel convoy (3 TKs and 2 DDs) out of Palembang - they somehow missed 1 TK, the rest bought it.  Had tried to get the Padang Bn (on Sumatra's Indian Ocean side - middle) lifted to Java, Miss Betty found them too.  Bettys also struck Batavia, but unlike the others, had some Fighter protection. 

Tarakan, Balikpapen still in Dutch hands, sigint says not for long - have Jap units planning for Tarakan, Balikpapan, Makassar and Kendari.  Have tried to build up Koepang, have done way too little to be more than a roadbump in the IJN express.  Java has only received remnants of the Bandjermason Bn flown over.  Medan was reinforced with a Bn just up the road, otherwise, not much improvement - looks gloomy.  TF popped 1 hex NW of Ambon, total surprise, expected them to land somebody in Ambon, but went for base 1 hex NW instead, Namlea - damn, a 1 (1)Port and 2(3) Afd.  Will be hosting Bettys in no time.

Philippines
Was able to withdraw all but 1 Filipino Div in Manilla into Clark Field.  Have undergone 3 days of attacks so far there, all Deliberate, all less than 1-2,last one was hammered 1-102, have stopped and now Bombarding - I lose 300 men each bombardment attack.  4k supply in Clark, lots of units resting in Bataan.  Have 776 Assault in Clark, 30k supply and another 680 Assault in Bataan. 

Had moved the remaining P-40 to Cagayan, was just able to get the adjoining forces into Cagayan same time as Japs came in.  Held Cagayan for 5 days, on 7 Jan - they finally got 2-1 on a shock attack.  Most frustrating not being able to save any of the P-40s squadrons.  Cagayan falls on 8 Jan, shock attack - fall back in Malaybalay - they're toast.  Had a dozen P-40s there, all gone.

Had a very damaged sub in Manilla, it limped down to Puerto Princessa - hoping it will take a while to mop up and the Permit can fix enough flotation (38 - 1 Major) to limp south some more.

Also, about Christmas, had evaced the remaining Filipino xAKs - used a direct path E between the Jimas and Marianas, then N of Marcus then to Midway.  Lost 3 to BB Kongo, but over a dozen have made it to Midway - tho half low on fuel, awaiting a tanker TF.  Total saved, an AO, 2 AS, AVD, xAP, 4 xAK, 9 xAKL.

Burma - Malaya
Pegu, Moulmein, Mandalay have been drawing air attacks, 1 AVG squadron in doing a fine job covering Pegu and Moulmein, has 41 kills, but 18 of 27 planes are in the maintenance shed.

Have 2nd Burma Brigade, SE of Pegu, serving as a scout - looking for signs of any IJA units - no sign so far.  Also have 13th Burma Rifles Bn 2 hexes SE of Taung Gyi on main track doing the same.  Have 227 Assault in Pegu, another 171 in Rangoon keeping it quiet (150 garrison).  Have 1 Chinese Div in Lashio, with 3 more and an HQ on the way.  Only Sigint for area, is a unit planning for Tavoy.

In Malaya, the Japs just entered Malacca (65 Assault dug in), with 5k men, but over 200 AFVs, run away!  Have 106 Assault in Johore, 93 of the 27th Ozzies now coming down from Mersing, and 297 in Singapore with 39k supply.  Have 82 AC, 72 operational, 29 Buffs, 24 Torps, 9 Search.  Hoping they last til February.

China
Have been trying to form a line, from the west Nanning to Luchow (2 hex E), SE to Wuchow, E to Kukong, NE to Changsha, NNE Ichang and then Nanyang, Loyang.  N to Yenan then NE to dot base Paotow.  I'm trying to cover river crossings especially in front of Changsha.  Only disputed spot is Nanning - where the Chinese are barely keeping the forts up, it has 128 Assault, but is unimportant, only leads to Luchow and 432 Assault.  Sent the Arty in Chungking to the front line, divided between Luchow, Changsha and Sian.  Jap air raids have been heavy, some raids to Chungking, so now have 2 squadrons of the AVG here.  90% of the "bulge" units have escaped, leaving some on the main RR line NE of Sinyang.

New Guinea, South Pacific
Got the 2nd Aussie Cav unloaded (well, most) in Port Moresby, had problem when juggling ships at the dock and having to split up TF so to maximize dock space, had 1 leftover ship decide to go home without unloading.  That's because when you split it off, it defaults its destination as home port!  Turned it around, but now its risky.  Had been just getting unescorted Sally raids, but now have Oscars in Finschhafen and Zeros in Rabaul.  Have 198 Assault in PM, half of that the 2nd Cav.  But only 4k supply, (5 if xAP unloads OK).

Moved an A-24 Banshee squadron to PM, to see if they are still super Dive Bombers.  They are, 1 4 plane strike made 3 hits on a ship.  Exp is only 41, but most raids score hits on docked ships at Lae and Finschhafen (a few at sea).  However, if run up against CAP they do get hammered, morale is down to 31.

Noumea had 56 AV, 5k supply, 1k fuel, with 18k on ships in the roadstead.  Need a traffic cop!  With the Port only a 2, already have had to divert some APs with the 2nd Marine Def to Auckland to reload unit as Amphib.

Pago Pago has 10k supply being unloaded, backlogging some 80k fuel (some I'll send some to Oz).  Once offloaded, Pago can act as my fuel/refuel hub.

Still getting a IJA Coy planning for Canton, so still have CA Chicago & Chester TF there.

Central Pacific
Got following Sigint:

• 41st Ind.AA Gun Co  is loaded on a Japanese xAK moving to Marcus Island.

So I think they'll need a reception.  Have 3 CVs in Pearl, so sending all of them to Marcus for much needed target practice.  Not sure they'll get there in time (now around Midway), but need the experience.  Still bummed cannot swap out the Buffs on Lady Lex yet.

Convoys

• 41st Inf Div loaded and on way to Brisbane, halfway between Seattle and Pearl
• US Ftr Cmd HQ, Port Svc Det, Cst AA Regt, 26k supply for Noumea - near Canton
• EAB for Noumea (Amphib) west of Palmyra
• I US Amphib Hq - Noumea - 10 hexes N Palmyra
• 11th PS w/P40s, BF, 16k supply - 8 hexes SW of Pearl
• 34th Inf Regt, USA BF - Noumea, a few days out of San Fran
• Cst Arty Rgt - Amphib - Efate - loading in San Fran
• Hurrican Sqdn, AT Regt, 2 AA Regt - Colombo - 10 hexes W of Colombo
• 15k fuel, 10k Supply - unloading Karachi
• 7th Hussars - Bombay - loading in Aden
• 2nd Royal Tank - Calcutta - loading in Aden
• 76k supply & 66k supply - Bombay - on way to enter map from Cape Town
• AA Regt, 18k Supply - Colombo - transit box to Indian Ocean

Assessment
Starting to get supply and units flowing - but the DEI looks lost already, as well as Malaya.  Philippines looks OK, should hold for awhile.  Burma is still weak, not sure if I'll be able to get my guys over the mountains after the IJA turns to Burma.  Think I'll be able to hold Noumea-Pago, doubling AV in Port Moresby helps, but the TOTAL lack of ANY fighters in Oz is killing me, need fighters in PM so I can get supply up there.  Actually think China may be good, supply the main question - have no replacements set, and alot of guys are resting.

Carriers, have Yorktown in San Diego awaiting escorts, with Lex, Sara, and the Big E will soon have the Kiddo Buttkickers assembled!  Or KB shark bait.  Need to update those Lex Buffs.

In the Sub war, I have 2 confirmed sunk subs - 1 off Pearl, the other off Vancouver Island.  I have lost 2 at sea (Shark & Pike) as well.  Also had 2 SS sunk at Pearl on 7 Dec.  1 is about to sink, and 14 have over 10 damage and are on their way to dry dock.  May be seeing more ASW groups hunting.  The Dutch Boys have done well, but with the Java Bugout, no AS there to re-arm.

PS - Only "house" rule I've been using, is no PTs. Put them all in port and let them be sunk by port attacks. They just seem much more effective than in real history, where they had a high nuisance factor, not a convoy crusher ability.

[dr. smith]

Update to come, in the mean time, lots have been said on how important it is to have Naval Support available to unload cargo and troops.  And of special mention, are the USN Prt Svc Detachments - 30 Naval Support & 10 Aviation Support in a nice tiny 320 troop package.

That said, I wondered, where are they, when do they come, so I can use them to the max.  To my surprise, I already had 2 in out of the way places, being of minimal use.  I had only found the San Diego one, it was just offloaded in Noumea.  The B Det was just loaded onto a convoy, but I needed all these guys yesterday.

To cut to the quick, went through force list, found 6 of them, here's the details:

A Det - December 9th (2 days) - Penrhyn Island
B Det - December 9th (2 days) - Seattle
C Det - December 9th (2 days) - San Diego
D Det - December 9th (2 days) - Pearl Harbor
E Det - December 19th (12 days) - Christmas Island
F Det - February 6th (59 days) - Cristobal


Christmas is just 3 islands SE of Palmyra, had trouble finding Penrhyn - maybe 20 hexes directly East of Pago Pago, South of Jarvis.

For me, the A Det and E Det have been on their respective reinforcement bases, totally ignored.  Scanning through an old Ops Report, noticed the Penrhyn A Detachment, that led me to look for them all.  Found the Christmas Island one - was not planning on building that island up.

So heads up!  You need these suckers ASAP, you may not have even known you already had 'em!

[dr. smith]

20 January Status:

Philippines
Did a good job of concentrating at Clark and Bataan. Japs have made 3 deliberate attack on 3 Jan (1-8 odds, AV 1261-993), 5 Jan (1-5 odds, 1198-949 AV) and 6 January (1-106 odds, 1120-867 AV) with these forces:
Assaulting units:
    21st Ind. Engineer Regiment
    16th Division
    48th Division
    3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
    4th Tank Regiment
    65th Brigade
    7th Tank Regiment
    9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
    1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    14th Army
    15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
    22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    3rd Engineer Construction Battalion

Since then only air and bombardments attacks.  Their AV has risen slightly from 1120 on 6 Jan to 1198 now on 20 Jan.  Clarks has only fallen from 867 to 794.  Can always reinforce from Bataan, where I have 700 AV resting.  Though supply is now down to about 6k combined in Clark and Bataan.  That will be the deciding factor.  For Air, just have a handful of P-26s left.

Surigao fell, wiping out the III Philipppine Corps + 2 Inf Divs, leaving only Zamboanga as last garrisoned base on Mindanao. 

DEI
Balikpapan fell, followed by a day by Tarakan - leaving only the base NE of Balikpapan and
Posthumous Dutch Unit Citation goes to the Tarakan CD Gun Coastal Battery, who got these hits:

•  xAP Naminoue Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires
• APD Asanagi, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
• DD Shinonome, Shell hits 2
• xAK Azuma Maru, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires
• xAK Toei Maru, Shell hits 1,  on fire
• xAK Tatuha Maru, Shell hits 5,  on fire
• xAK Tatuharu Maru, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires

In Borneo, Singkawang is still in Dutch hands, Jesselton is contested.  Sambas fell from Kuching forces.

Evac-ed the Brit AF from Singapore, so Palembang finally has air cover, beefed up Batavia and Soerbaja's Fighter CAP.  Ambon was invaded.  Still no move to Sorong, but it's probably going to fall soon.  Will probably have to defend a strike at Timor soon, also.

KB has exited the area, last reports had it 8 hexes above Miri - heading for home?!!

Malaya
Pooch has officially been screwed, Mersing Aussie Brigade NEVER made it to Johore Bharu in time - still in Mersing - thats 90 AV all alone.  2 other forces wandering the Malay jungles, so ended up with only about 300 AV in Singapore, 30k supply.  So after 4 attacks, have turned on replacements for the Singers defenders - just to use up supply - have had these attacks so far:

• 16 Jan - Shock - 1-449  (base AVs of 833-364)
• 18 Jan - Deliberate - 1-1  (933-326)
• 19 Jan - Deliberate - 1-26 (913-233)
• 20 Jan - Shock - 1-10 (1312-215)

Burma
First movement detected, abandoned Tavoy falls - now getting intel for reports on plans on Moulmein (empty).  Have 3 Chinese Divs in place in Lashio - still have my road-bump Battalions on the lookout for movement - have moved Brigade + Arty into Akyab and Cox's Bazaar.

New Guinea - SoPac
Port Moresby had been getting Airfield attacks from Betties and Sallies totally missing some smallish supply convoys, so naturally thought I could sneak in a convoy with the 2/11th Armoured Car Bn and supply. 

Umm, sortof.  Lost 2 xAKLs with supply to subs, Miss Betty sunk 2 xAPs, 2 xAKs and an xAKL.  Torps put holes in 2 more xAPs and an xAK.  "Most" of the 2/11th made it ashore, some supply.   Now there's a convoy with a Aussie Brigade en route, forcing me to move a Squadron of Greenhorn P-40s there (exp 38) with 2 more to rotate in when it gets shredded.

Noumea is a 3 port!!!!  Finally!  Pago Pago has about 50k fuel stored now to serve as refueling hub.  40k of fuel is nearing Noumea.  The tiny atoll of Vaitupu Fell (2 hexes from Funifuti).  All their coconuts were taken - CA Louisville visited - sunk small TF apparently loading up invasion force.  All gone.

CenPac
Marcus Island wa successively raided by 3 CVs.  Sunk considerable portion of TF there.  Swung by Wake on way back, did the same their.  Unfortunately, the CVs were 2 days SE of Midway when Jap raiding force of CA-DDs hit Midway and took out a resupply TF.  Luckily most of a Coast AA Regiment had already unloaded.

China
Stabilized - Nanning is holding, but I'm more than ready to evacuate 2 hexes East across the river.  Have good force resting there.   Also, have good garrison in ?? about 4 hexes NNE of Canton, much advanced from my main defense line, but so far, no move against it.  In far north, near a dot base I took, Paotow, there's been a mountain top toe-to-toe brawl going on for weeks, still holding on.  The two hex mountain (Paotow is also mountain terrain) should be tough to take out.  Nice anchor position.

[dr. smith]

Will probably say sayonara to this AAR, I was using Auto Sub Ops for the US side and am suffering the consequences now.  Since the fall of Manilla, the home bases for subs have become Sydney or Pearl.  Both being extremely out of range, I now have at least a dozen subs limping home, out of fuel, accumulating damage every day.   Will refrain myself from this option in the future.  Plus just looking forward to new Andy Mac wrinkles in the AI.

Thought I'd look at some of the data, and lets' start with the subs.  Went through and accumulated data in a lil' ol' database, here's some of what I found (one problem is, halfway thru, I would decide to add a field or two that requires going back through ALL the Combat Reports).

Note for dev team: on Combat report, it says "Submarine attack" if attacking an unescorted ship, it says "Sub attack" if ship attacked has escorts.  Please make both say "Submarine attack" - it's easier to find ALL the relevant reports if there's consistency.

Here's the number of subs by type/nationality (the "Fish" boats are the named US subs):

How many of each type have made attacks?
Brit              1
Dutch          5
S Boat         6
Fish Boats 30
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I was running 3 day turns, for convenience, these are grouped that way:

Date         Nbr Attcks  TorpsFired  TorpHits
7-10 Dec        10            32              1
11-13 Dec        9            32              6
14-16 Dec      26            92              8
17-19 Dec      14            56              8
20-22 Dec      11            40              5
23-25 Dec      11            38              1
26-28 Dec        8            28              7
29-31 Dec        9            30              2
1-3 Jan            4            14              2
4-6 Jan            0
7-9 Jan            3            10              2
10-12 Jan        1              4              0
13-15 Jan        5            18              3
16-18 Jan        0
19-21 Jan        1              4               2
========================================
                    112           398           47     11.8% hit rate

You can tell when Manilla fell from looking at the above - once that happened all Manilla subs had go to their new home port to refuel since they were now thousands of miles from home.

Sometimes during a Sub Surface Attack, torpedos are used - these are not included since the report does not state how many torpedoes where fired - have had seen several salvos used, it's just not reported.

OK, so 11.8% hit rate, immediately the question arises how well did the Mark XIV do as opposed to others - will break out totals by boat types.

Boat Type      Nbr Attcks        TotTorpsFired    TotTorpHits   % Hits
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dutch Boys          18                    54                    16              29.6
S Boats                16                   64                    11              17.2
Fish Boats           78                  280                    20               7.1

Another matter that affects subs is Mechanical Difficulty prevents subs from firing torpedos - seen this plenty, but only for US!!!

Here's the tally of that happening by Boat Type:
Dutch           0
Brit               0
S Boat        12
Fish Boats  13

Finally surface attacks, for some reason the Dutch have conducted several and NEVER gotten a hit?  Here's the total tally of activity - again MECH is mechanical breakdown - always torpedo attacks, and once it happens, the sub does not "fix" it within that day.

Sub Type    TypeAtk    NbrAtk    TorpsFire  TorpHit   ShellHits
Brit                Surf           1                              2             1
Dutch             Sub          18             54          16
Dutch             Surf           7                             3              0 !!
S Boat            Sub          16            64           11
S Boat            Sub          12     MECH BREAKDOWN
S Boat           Surf            9                             6            19
Fish Boat        Sub         78            280          20
Fish Boat        Sub         13     MECH BREAKDOWN
Fish Boat       Surf          31                            10         212
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

So the S Boats' hit rate is about 2.4 times better than the Fish boats, BUT 43% of the S Boats sub attacks FAIL due to Mechanical breakdowns.   So which is the better boat?  Fish boats with better reliability, or S boats with greater hit probability?

So to determine that let's see how many sub attacks result in torpedo hits, need number of attacks that got hits:
-------------------
Dutch        13
S Boat         9
Fish Boat   17

Divide that by total number of Sub Attacks (non-surface + Mech breakdowns) we get this:
Type          Success    TotAtks    MechBreakdowns     % Success
==============================================
Dutch            13               18                  0                           72.2
S Boat            9                16                 12                          32
Fish Boat      17                78                 13                          18.7

So the Fish boats are still worse than the ancient S boats, but add in their increased endurance, hence, long range, they'll grade out about even with the S-Boats.

Awards

Dead Eye:
Cachalot (2 hits out of 4 torps)
S-39 (2 of 4)
O21 (1 of 2)

Deputy
KXIV   (4 hits out of 12 = 33%)
KXVIII  (4 of 12 = 33%)
O20  ( 5 of 16 = 31.25%)

Posse
S-37  (6 of 24 = 25%)
S-40  (1 of 4 = 25%)
Argonaut (1 of 4 = 25%)
Pike (5 of 26 = 19.2%)

Town Drunks
Skipjack (0 for 20)
Sailfish  (0 for 16)
S-36  (0 for 16)
Virgin Sturgeon (0 for 12)