ORIGINAL: skrewball
I am trying to find more numbers on actual IJN SS attacks...but here is a sobering note taken from www.combinedfleet.com
"Japan started the war with 63 ocean-going submarines (i.e., not including midgets), and completed 111 during the war, for a total of 174. However, three-quarters of these (128 boats) were lost during the conflict, a proportion of loss similar that experienced by Germany's U-Boats. Most of the surviving boats were either dedicated to training roles or were recently completed and never saw combat. Of those which saw significant combat, the toll was very grim indeed. For example, of the 30 submarines that supported the Pearl Harbor attack, none survived the war.
Compared to German submarines, Japan's huge boats were relatively easy to sight visually and with radar, slow to dive, hard to maneuver underwater, easy to track on sonar, and easy to hit. Japanese hulls were also not as strong as those of German boats, and therefore could not dive as deeply nor survive such rough treatment. Also, they lacked radar until the first sets were installed in June 1944, and never had sets as good as the Allies possessed."
So it looks like a JFB should us his subs for the occasional deep strike as opposed to dedicated commerce raiding.
No question - the overall war stats paint a pretty grim picture. Accordingly, while 88% effectivity of ASW sounds horrendous, it just might be correct - especially in mid-43 (and later).
