JFB ONLY: erstad(J) versus aztez (A) - An occasional AAR

[sval062]

ORIGINAL: erstad

I am absolutely keeping the merchant shipyards going, we need those transports, plus I think some minor naval ships like CVEs might use the merchie points. I would suggest turning those back on. Note that merchant points (like naval and HI) accumulate, so if you produce them now you can use them tomorrow or use them in 1945; only reason I could see to shut down now would be if you think you will never use them and I can pertty much guarantee that won't happen.

Actually I stopped merchant shipyards capacity in excess in order to save HI for the future.
Since HI is necessary for both naval and merchant shipyards, my thought was to accumulate as much HI points as possible to be able to organize my production between the 2 kind of shipyards depending on my future needs.

So, basically my idea was: accumulate HIs on the beginning of the war, and during darker days: reduce HI production (which will be done de facto because of probable lack of raw materials and/or cargo capacity) and use this HI stock to continue to run naval and merchant shipyards depending on the situation.

[jwilkerson]

Agree, for some reason there seems to be a significant excess of merchant shipping shipyard poinst. I will be shutting down some merchant ship yards as well.

[erstad]

Well, if Witpstaff is to be believed, we start with a production of 807 and a use of 458. However, the estimated use in 1 year is 996. So at least some buffer is needed; the size of the buffer will depend on how high the peak use goes and how long the "bubble" lasts.

And since I'm currently running a noticeable HI surplus, I'm not to worried if I'm overproducing merchie points, because I know they'll get used sooner or later.

But, each to his own. We'll see in a couple years if I'm whining about an HI deficit or if anyone else is whining about a merchie deficit [;)]

[jwilkerson]

One question though is whether to increase Naval Ship Yards. An excess of HI is best put towards warships - hence if we have an excess of HI out of the gate, then increasing naval ship yards is indicated. Whether to convert merchant yards or just expand naval yards could be debated - but I struggle to think of a reason not to expand naval yards. We can always just shut down yards that are not currently needed.

[erstad]

Here's the Japanese air losses at the end of the first month.

Several observations:
- As expected, I'm running a deficit in army bombers. Lost 150 total in the ~3 weeks so far, and am producing only 120/month.
- Navy bombers, on the other hand, are doing great. Only 37 lost, and I'm building 87 per month. In part, the low losses are because I generally avoid frittering away my elite naval attack arm against defended ground targets.
- Lost 96 navy fighters, currently building only 78 but it's still repairing to 112
- Lost 42 Kates, but I expect my CVs were more active than they typically will be

So, here's my plans:
Double Sally production to 46.
This will increase pressure on my Ha-32 engine pool, which is already within a day of hitting zero. To respond to that, I will
- Shut off Betty production for the time being (relying on nells, although in a month or two I'm going to be crunched for the Ha-33 engines too
- Change the Hitachi(early) plant to Ha-32. The only plane in production using this engine is the Ida, and there is a around a 5 month stockpile, which is probably enough Idas. They aren't that great a plane, and I'm guessing I'll find less use for light bombers as the war goes on.

[sval062]

ORIGINAL: erstad
But, each to his own. We'll see in a couple years if I'm whining about an HI deficit or if anyone else is whining about a merchie deficit [;)]

Well said (Please note that my goal was not to convince you but instead to discuss) [;)]

I see that you have 488 planes down --> What about your pilots pool since only 350 new pilots arrives each month? : Do you have less pilots in pool compared to the beginning ? What kind of army (IJN or IJA) suffered the most? is it equal? etc...

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: sval

I see that you have 488 planes down --> What about your pilots pool since only 350 new pilots arrives each month? : Do you have less pilots in pool compared to the beginning ? What kind of army (IJN or IJA) suffered the most? is it equal? etc...

IJA lost most of the planes, I think probably around 300 of the total. Pilots is a big concern of mine. My pilot pool is actually 700 pilots lower than at start despite the January influx, but that includes all of the extra pilots I pulled into active units. I figure the 35 experience pilots in the pool aren't going to get any better and may as well be training-up on map. Have to be careful to think about what opposition they're going to see, though; I try not to pull them into units that are going to see fighter opposition in the near future. Despite that, I probably have somewhat higher plane losses than if I hadn't pulled as many pilots.

Note too that you don't always lose a pilot with a plane. For example, the AVG just showed up for the first time at Changsha, and I lost 14 Sonias, but only 10 pilots. That was overland, a 3-4 hex raid. I suspect longer distances and/or over water would see higher pilot losses; same-hex losses (e.g., CAP) would see less.

[erstad]

Semi-Random update

Philippines: A disturbing number of my BBs and CAs have taken torpedo hits from PT boats. While in no danger of sinking, repairing major damage on capital ships takes a long time (Rule of thumb for BBs - I'm finding the repair time is about 3X the major float damage, e.g., 15 float damage takes 45 days to repair). So, I've pulled my capital ships back to Takao and left CLs and lighter to deal with the PT menace. There are no more transports to protect at the moment. Almost pulled everything back but figure I better attrit these pesky gnats lest they move elsewhere and continue to be a problem. Moved ~2400 AV into Clark, about another 240 en route. Hoping it falls quickly. Recon says there's something like 20 units there, if I can force a retreat it will speed things along.

Malaya
Jari has done a Sir Robin, pulling everything to Singers (except for maybe 9 units in Johore Baru, and the units that haven't been able to get there yet.) As a result, I've kept most of my units in Strat mode, and just kept a couple of attackers going forward, bringing the strat mode units forward every time I got a new city on the rail line. I'm actually OK with the Sir Robin, as I do not have all that much in Malaya - only one full division (Imperial guards) plus a bunch of smaller units. I haven't decided if I'm going to enter Singers before I get some units back from the PI or no. I did finally land at Malacca and moved some units across to cut the peninsula. Probably should have done that earlier. I'll catch about 5 units still.

Burma
A bit of a backwater at present. Overland to Burma is just so slow I'm going to take Malaya and then go amphib for Burma. I do have a couple of units which are on the verge of taking Moulmein. Recon says Jari did a Sir Robin here too, there's only 2 units at Rangoon and 9+ at Mandalay. Rangoon industry is trashed, I assume due to insufficient garrison.

Borneo/DEI
I have Miri, and troops ashore at Singkawang, but no supply was offloaded at Singkawang before several allied SCTFs showed up and scared away the transports. I did have a strong covering force including BBs and i think I put some hurt on the ABDA guys before they retreated. Will need to get back to that but first I'm going to run a supply convoy into Miri. I have Manado, and am shock-attacking at Ambon this turn and expect to get it. Assuming I get some supply unloaded.

CentPac
Relatively quite, although I did have a sub attack a tanker near Christmas Island, which makes me wonder if that is a hub of some kind. Glens spotted maybe another 4 ships at least. I've got a couple subs vectoring directly to Christmas and 3 CVs heading in to investigate.

SoPac
Took Noumea, which I'm happy about, but lost 6-8 ships unnecessarily as I landed directly at Noumea instead of landing at La Foa and marching overland. I have an AS that will be in Noumea next turn, letting me base subs there to interdict traffic to Oz. Will also be moving a Daitai of naval bombers there, both to provide naval search (If I see a really big convoy, send in the CVs!) and to force routing of convoys to the extreme south. I don't think I have the shipping to create a bunch of bastions int the south but I'm guessing I can be quite annoying for quite a while.

Solomons
Just picking off bases here and there. Don't have enough ground strength in the area to think about PM yet. But if I get Rabaul to a L4 and keep a couple CVs in the area I don't think PM can be that heavily reinforce. Might try a CV raid on Oz later and see if I can catch any shipping.

[InHarmsWay]

Erstad,

Enjoying the AAR from both sides so will be careful on what I say.. [:)]
I was wonder if you could share some thoughts on your attack on the PI. Typically I usually try the two pronged attack from the north and south on the big island. I was wondering how you are judging your decision to go with everything from the north. I am always looking for new ideas / options for the initial japanese blitz. Thanks and good luck on the attack. These AARs are really helping me learn a few tricks and get some ideas.

InHarmsWay

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: InHarmsWay
I was wonder if you could share some thoughts on your attack on the PI. Typically I usually try the two pronged attack from the north and south on the big island. I was wondering how you are judging your decision to go with everything from the north. I am always looking for new ideas / options for the initial japanese blitz. Thanks and good luck on the attack. These AARs are really helping me learn a few tricks and get some ideas.

Well, I did just land some small forces in the south, but mainly just to block the retreat out of Manila. But you're right, there's no significant southern prong. I got quite a bit more in PI now than most would have to make sure things don't drag out, and a frontal assault seems as good as any. I've seen others suggest that doing a two pronged attack forces the allies to split between clark and manila; true; but it also forces japan to split as well, and the allies have the advantage of interior lines (as I understand ground movement in AE, they will now be able to move from Clark to Manila and vice versa).

Plus it's a lot easier to cover invasion and reinforcements in the north, particularly pre-patch when the PT boats and other small craft were a little overpowered. As I mentioned previously, I like to keep my invasions well covered (recent "oopses" in Borneo and Mindanao not-withstanding.) This is a general tendency of mine and is important against aztez as he will try bold and aggressive moves.

What do you see as the advantages of the two-pronged approach? There's always things I don't know...[8|]

I actually waited too long to take Clark; I was letting my troops rest after 1:2 attacks (which in Witp-classic would be more painful) and didn't fully realize that we were both taking roughly equal losses and if I just kept attacking the odds were going to shift in my favor. I'm guessing if I was more aggressive it would have fallen a week earlier.

(The slowness in taking manila is a different reason; there was a bug that potentially caused Clark to fall a turn or so earlier that it should have given my play, so I'm standing the guys down for an extra two turns (4 days) to account for that. I offered a replay, but we decided to just keep going with a player-induced delay)

[sval062]

Well it's funny since I made exactly the same assumptions than yours, and I did the exact opposite (ie I landed both on North and South in PI). [:D][:D]

As PT boats were overpowered, my answer was to land at Altimoman as the base is "heading" East --> A quick landing here on 9th December and it's physically impossible for US player to have PT or Subs on the area because of the time of travel around PI --> No need to have a strong escort at least to go there.

The other idea was to land at 3 times in the same day at 3 different locations, then the US player cannot deal with so many targets at the same moment.

The last idea once landed is to move on 3 vectors: 2 from the north on the "normal" way, 1 from the south. As you stated, it obliges the US to defend everywhere, allowing easy gains and easy victories on LCUs --> The following should also be easier as some PI units were already beaten 1-2 times before big fight in Manilla or Bataan.
The main drawback is that I need to gather my troops --> the first Rendez vous is Manilla for 2 vectors, then Clark field (to join with the last vector) and Bataan for the last stand.

This is why I love AE: Same assumptions on something, opposite answers, and fun for both [8D][&o]

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: erstad
What do you see as the advantages of the two-pronged approach?

I am a decided opponent of the "two-pronged approach" for the reasons you mentioned - splitting ones forces. I tried the two pronged approach in my last game with Moses and got "hung up" for quite some time. I'm using the "one-prong approach" in my current 2x2 game.

[erstad]

Month-end industry. Doing mostly OK but I'm still short of vehicles. I've been expanding factories here and there to try to catch up.

[erstad]

Month end ace pilots and losses. Most of top pilots are in zeros, no surprise there both because it's a better plane and because I use it on sweeps more often.

Note the pilot losses. If you assume most of the MIA pilots aren't coming back and some of the WIA, I've lost around 600 pilots in about 8 weeks. Means I need about 325 new pilots/month to keep up. Not getting that many, so my pilot pools are dropping. I'll post those too. Food for thought for JFBs who think they can make an attrition strategy work.

[erstad]

Here's the February pilots. Note I only added 129 IJN and 162 IJA even though there are supposed to be 150 and 185. You might think maybe the backend of the pipe starts more lightly loaded and eventually I'll start getting around 150 and 185 (minus maybe some casualties) but the entire pipe is smaller this month than last month. What's going on?

[erstad]

Here's the pipeline in january, for comparison. Looking at IJA as an example, there are 150 fewer pilots in the system in feb versus January, despite the fact that 185 went in and only 162 came out. Training losses can't be that high, can they? that means we're losing as many as we get out. IJN pipe went down by 132 pilots.

[erstad]

Japanese air losses

[erstad]

Allied air losses

[erstad]

About a month ago (game time) I has units on the outskirts of Sian that pulled back. One person PM'ed and asked why I "abandoned" my attack, so I thought I'd answer here. Aztez also made some comment about my retreat in an e-mail.

The game situation at the time is shown in the pic below. I had a large stack outside Sian with a large stack of his, and there were a bunch of Chinese in Sian as well. However, aztez also had a large (1300AV, IIRC) stack of units that was moving west - see the tiny movement arrows on the LCU icon (recon is your friend). My concern was that was a lot of Chinese to have sitting directly on my supply path. I'm on the road, so if I can take out the stack in my current hex, move to Sian, take Sian, and get back before he gets there I'd be OK, but that's a lot of ifs. So I moved back to the hex he was moving to. If he got there, I was pretty confident I could knock him back out. After a couple of turns it occurred to me he might change his mind so I also started moving some LCUs to the hex he was in to eventually force a retreat.

What further increased the risk is the forward units were not in good supply. Forward units that are far from a base don't always get their full supply, even if there's supply at the base. This often gets discussed as a "Chinese unit problem" but it affects both sides. BTW, I'm not complaining, I think it should work that way. Units that are hundreds of miles down a road running through hostile territory should have a more difficult time staying in supply. Especially since supply is not as fungible as the game engine makes it out to be. It's not just "how many tons of supply are on hand", it's "Do we have a 3/4" lug nut?"

So, that's why I "retreated." Won't argue I was right or wrong, just explaining.

[erstad]

Just a quick observation. What enabled me to do the Pago Pago thing was that I took out two US CVs in the first couple weeks of the war. If there were seven fleet CVs (including the brits) running around, there's no way I'd have KB out that far from home, it'd be too vulnerable. And even if I did, if instead of challenging heads on they were sent to the DEI I'd be at a standstill with only LBA and mini-KB to counter. (For that matter, I'm a little surprised I haven't seen the CVs in the DEI, even 5 CVs would be a powerful force).

I think aztez either misstepped or took a big risk on the first CV. A lot of Japan players send CVs to Wake after pearl, simply because it's so tempting for the US to try to nail the invasion TF. And I'm certainly not one to leave them twisting in the wind. The second CV, as far as I can tell, was just dumb luck.