Japanese Comodities

[Mike Solli]

While WitPStaff is an excellent tool, for some reason I like to create my own spreadsheets. Yeah, it's time consuming, but that's just my way.

I finished my spreadsheet that details resource, oil and fuel needs and production as well as supply production. Kind of interesting.

Basically, on 7 Dec 41, the Japanese need about 30k resources, 250k oil and 130k fuel per month to keep their war machine going. This assumes no increase in any HI, refinery or LI factories. Also, I split the fuel evenly between HI and shipping needs (I have no idea how accurate that is). I'll discuss each type separately.

First of all, let me list the different regions:

Honshu
Hokkaido
Kyushu
Shikoku
Sakhalin
China/Manchuoko/Korea
Hong Kong
Formosa
Indochina
Amami Oshima (minor island)
Naha (minor island)
Sadogashima (minor island)

Resources: The Japanese begin the war with enough resource reserves and production in the areas they control to last them the entire war. This doesn't mean they can ignore this. With the exception of Honshu, every region produces excess resources. But, Honshu makes up for it. Honshu requires almost 3.4 million resources a month. Honshu begins the war with a 1.2 month reserve. You need to begin hauling resources to Honshu on 7 Dec 41 from everywhere you can at the rate of 112k resources a day. [X(] Your HI and supply is counting on it. Those resources will produce 416k HI and 695k supply (95% of the total supply production) per month. The resources are there. You just need to get it to Honshu. No mean feat.

Oil: Japanese oil production at the start of the war is a pathetic joke. The total oil production in all areas is only 67,200 per month. The need is 316,500 per month. Fortunately, oil reserves are well spread out in the 3 regions that need oil shipped to them (Honshu, C/M/K and Indochina). The Japanese have enough oil reserves (plus the monthly trickle) to keep their refineries at 100% output for 13 months. This gives 285k fuel and 31,650 supply per month. Here's the rub. When those 13 months are gone, your fuel production drops to 60,480 (21%) fuel and 6720 supply per month (21%). That fuel, if used only for your HI produces only 60480 HI (15%) and 60480 supply (15%) per month. And, with no extra fuel, your fleet comes to a screeching halt. Oil is of paramount importance. After Dec 42, your refineries in the Home Islands will not produce at full capacity. Therefore, your fuel situation will deteriorate. Once you expand to the limit you decide (on 7 Dec 41) you must horde fuel at all costs. Yes, you will gain additional refinery capacity in the SRA, and much of it will produce, but it will not replace all of the refining that occurred in the Home Islands in the first 13 months of the war.

Fuel: I have no idea how much fuel the fleet will need. I do know that your HI will require 416k fuel a month and your refineries (at 100% capacity) will produce only 285k fuel. Your economy will suck 250k fuel from your reserves each month. Fortunately, you start with about 4.3 million fuel. Eliminating half for the fleet and giving half of the monthly production to the fleet, you have enough for 8 months of production. Keep in mind that there is substantial refining capability in the SRA, but that is a long way from the Home Islands. There has been a debate whether to ship oil or fuel to the Home Islands. I'm not sure which way to go. My gut instinct is to ship all of the excess oil and as much fuel as I can to the Home Islands.

Just a few thoughts. [;)]

[Takeshi]

Thanks for the numbers. I sort of intuitively guessed that fuel would be in critical short supply after the stockpile ran out, but not that dramatically so early. Gives JFBs a lot to think about. Need to consider the long term effect on fuel consumption of every decision.

[Mike Solli]

Keep in mind that I just guessed with fuel. I most likely am way off. Hopefully, I guessed that fuel usage is higher than it actually will be. I'm going to try and figure out actual fuel usage for the fleet. That may be difficult. Maybe WitP Staff will help there.

[Historiker]

Would you mind shareing your tabellas? [:)]

[Mike Solli]

Of course. I just need to check it to make sure I didn't make an error in calculations. One little decimal place can really screw things up. [:D]

[Shark7]

Sounds like KB will need to spend quite a lot of time tied to a pier if you don't want your fuel situation to go critical early.

[Takeshi]

Also keep the old BBs parked. Need to consider halting production of all heavy vessels. May not be able to fuel them and will need those HI points down the road.

[Tone]

Or base the Combined Fleet where the Oil and fuel are SRA

[Historiker]

That'll defentily be a good solution.
It causes me stomachache to imagine that a big fleet operation may cause a halt in HI production as both ships and HI use the same: fuel [X(]

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Keep in mind that I just guessed with fuel. I most likely am way off. Hopefully, I guessed that fuel usage is higher than it actually will be. I'm going to try and figure out actual fuel usage for the fleet. That may be difficult. Maybe WitP Staff will help there.

After 2 months of PBEM, I'm down 1.2M in fuel overall (Maybe a little less depending on how much is in transit). So fuel will definitely be a limiter, this pace is not sustainable even with the DEI, I fear. (But as JFBs, we need to make hay while the sun shines!)

[AvG]

Downed AE this weekend, so I have no playing experience.
Historicly Japan was short of fuel.
Some Excel-math:
Shiptype Fuel/Endur(hex) Appr. nbr Fuel for 1 hex.

BB 18,88888889 10 188,8888889
CV 14,64830508 10 146,4830508
CA 11,91304348 18 214,4347826
CL 8,405405405 20 168,1081081
DD 3,253333333 100 325,3333333
PB 2,13 100 213
SC 2,428571429 40 97,14285714
SS 1 70 70
CM 5 30 150

Total ~ 1600 fuel/hex

So if this part of the fleet is moving 1 hex it will cost 1600 fuel (if my math is right)
Japan mainland:
If you use all HI you need ~ 12K fuel where all your refineries can do ~ 8K fuel
On dec 8, after the surprise attack you have in total 224 oil-points, what means ~ 2K fuel.
Of course you start with a lot fuel in stock, but with these figures it will be soon depleted.
So IMHO go for Borneo, Java and Sumatra, where the bigger wells can be found.
Before I go on with the game I will finish my Excel-matrix. That gives you better insight what to look after.

The math-part looks bad in the preview. Sorry for that.

AvG

[jwilkerson]

ORIGINAL: erstad
After 2 months of PBEM, I'm down 1.2M in fuel overall

Granted I'm only about 3 weeks in to my AAR game - but fuel as not gone down much ... maybe 100K or so. I am not pulling much out of the Home Islands - but trying to live on captures. So far this seems to be mostly working. To be precise, from 7 Dec to 24 Dec in my game, I've gone from 4.4M reported down to 4.2M reported.

[sval062]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

Granted I'm only about 3 weeks in to my AAR game - but fuel as not gone down much ... maybe 100K or so. I am not pulling much out of the Home Islands - but trying to live on captures. So far this seems to be mostly working. To be precise, from 7 Dec to 24 Dec in my game, I've gone from 4.4M reported down to 4.2M reported.

I am at beginning January 42 and fuel reserves are already down by 0.4M.
But January should see a drastic change as more transit will occur --> my fleet should consume much more in January (Of course, I plan to take oil and refinery capacities in the process, but I don't think it will compensate).

[Mike Solli]

Here's some data on where the stuff is and where it needs to go. Just remove the .txt and "poof", it becomes a spreadsheet. [:D] I think it's accurate but if there are any errors, please let me know.

A couple of notes:

- The second tab (Centers) is the detail by base.
- The first tab (Center Roll Up) is a roll up by region. The boxes highlighted in green can be moved to wherever it's needed. Those regions produce a surplus of that comodity. The yellow boxes need stuff. It's usually pretty easy to figure out where stuff needs to go (usually Honshu).
- The other tabs (yards, engines, airframes and Pilot Pool) are things I added early on and haven't done much with. Just an easy way of seeing them.

Mike

[Gilbert]

Thanks Mike, looks great and very useful [&o] but it will take some time to look at all the numbers [:D]
Regards
Gilbert

[Mike Solli]

Remember, the first tab is most important.  It really doesn't matter what each individual base has for reserves.  The AI will move stuff around within each region.  Just get the stuff you need to each region.  The only thing you really have to worry about is exceeding 999,999 for anything at one base.  After that, you just dump the stuff into the ocean.  That is a concern with the new amounts of resources floating around.

[Blind Sniper]

Great job, thank you very much!  

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

ORIGINAL: erstad
After 2 months of PBEM, I'm down 1.2M in fuel overall

Granted I'm only about 3 weeks in to my AAR game - but fuel as not gone down much ... maybe 100K or so. I am not pulling much out of the Home Islands - but trying to live on captures. So far this seems to be mostly working. To be precise, from 7 Dec to 24 Dec in my game, I've gone from 4.4M reported down to 4.2M reported.

Thanks Joe. I'd estimate a shortfall of ~300k fuel per month at that rate. I assume that includes what you've captured? If so, the actual usage rate may be higher. But, it would be offset by the refineries you captured too. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens. [:D]

What are you going to do when the big stash at Truk runs out? Replenish from the SRA? I guess that makes more sense than sucking it out of the Home Islands and then replenishing the Home Islands from the SRA.

[Q-Ball]

Thanks Mike!

Among many things, old habits have to change from WITP. In WITP, efficient fuel shipments were a triangle; OIL to Home Islands, FUEL to Truk, Empties back to SRA to get more Oil........for example.

Now, it's pretty much full one-way, and empty another, no matter how you think about tanker shipments.

Here is one to wrap your brain around:

Assuming a median level of captures in the SRA, and current production of fuel.....superimpose THAT against the estimated consumption by the merchant fleet just to keep resources, oil, fuel, and supplies moving around. What is left over after that, for troop movement, and operation of the IJN? Per month? I suspect that could be a frighteningly low number......how do we estimate fuel consumption required to just keep the economy fed?

As far as the SRA is concerned.........I plan on repairing all the OIL, but NOT repairing the refinery capacity. This will create surplus OIL. Ship all that OIL back to Japan, and use the SRA fuel production for local consumption, and to support the fleet.

Although hauling OIL instead of FUEL is 10% less efficient in terms of TK capacity, I think the savings in supply expenditure is worth it. (the supplies it would take to repair the refinery). We also, I think, need to get in the habit of ONLY refueling TK convoys in the SRA, and setting it to OFF in the Home Islands; may as well use the ship's bunkers to haul fuel as well. Finally, FUEL can spoil, and OIL cannot; better to have OIL accumulating in the SRA than FUEL.

Another adjustment: In WITP, the SRA was a signficant SUPPLY source, and I limited the amount drawn from the Home Islands. Now, it looks like the Home Islands are basically it for large-scale supply production (some minor help around the map).

[Mike Solli]

Very good analysis, Q-Ball.  Unfortunately, I don't have a clue as to how much fuel the shipping will use.  My goal is to ship ~250k fuel from the SRA to Japan (~100k over the requirements for the HI there).  The rest (~250k) will be available for use by the fleet.  Not much at all.  I'm not counting the 81k produced monthly in Burma.  I don't expect to ever see much of that.