rough calc of USSR production

[gwgardner]

Having played a PBEM as USSR and watched Chuck's AARs, it's apparent that the USSR production is out of whack.

I did a ROUGH calculation, using the '39 Campaign OOB and the '41 Barbarossa Scenario OOB. Assuming those OOBs are fairly accurate historically, in game terms the USSR spent 7700 PPs in the 95 weeks/turns between 9/39 and late 6/41. That's on production of new units and research.

If one divides 7700 by 95 it comes out to roughly 80 PPs a week/turn. Howsomeever, in the game, the USSR starts with production at 125 PP a turn, and by June 41 is getting 250 PPs a turn.

Unless my rough math is wrong, that means that the USSR production is roughly 2.5 times what it should be for a balanced game.

Is that rough, enough?

[Chocolino]

You have convinced me very hands on....

[Uxbridge]

Don't know whether this is of any assistance, but I did some calculations on different countries production, multiplied with the industrial modifier and then withdrew the upkeep cost, to see what acctually came out. These three charts are from the 1939, 1941 and 1944 scenarios using the industrial modifier in the said scenarios, but having the upkeep figures that are all in the 1939 scenario. The total combat strength for each country is shown as well, creating the base for the upkeep calculation.

At this point I'm not drawing any conclusions from it, just thought you would like to now. The main reason for me making these calculations is that I'm going to fiddle a little with the efficiency factor. I'm going to make the Germans stronger in this regard throughout the war and I'm also going to raise the efficiency figures, so that the difference in combat effect will be higher. To do this I need to tweak the production figures or the Germans will simply be too strong.

I have to wait for the patch before I do anything with the game, but thought these figures might shed some light upon the upkeep question and what impact it might have on the production.

These are the results (39/41/44):

[gwgardner]

dang, I forgot all about upkeep costs. Told you my calcs were rough.

Anyway, I hope you'll share your end results in a mod.

[Michael the Pole]

Uxbridge, you are REALLY an invaluable resource![8D]

I have stated before my belief that the SU was significantly weaker in the pre-1942 period then we are modelling.

My summer project was reading the three books by Richard M. Watt on the end of WWI and the imter-war period (Dare Call it Treason, The Kings Depart, and Bitter Glory) (all excellent, and highly recomended to you interested in the period. Dare Call it Treason is a really in depth look at the French Army mutinies of 1917...fascinating stuff. I am now an absolute gold mine of trivia on European politics until 1939![8D])

The Sovs were absolutely terrified of the Germans after the collapse of any possible military alliance with the Western Democracies in 1938. The problem wasn't so much physical weakness, it was combat effectiveness. This was demonstrated in Finland and (although a paper victory) at Khalkhyn Gol as well as by the Red Army rout of the summer of 1941.

We all need to remember that Barbarossa was badly, strategicly, flawed due to the input of the Austrian paper-hanger. By concentrating on destruction of the Red Army rather than the destruction of Soviet production (taking cities) Hitler was betting the Third Riech on his ability to destroy the Red Army before Soviet production came on line. What you'd see in game terms in an accurate reproduction of history for the winter of 41-42, is a severely weakend Red Army, but with Soviet production essentially intact. 42 was a marginal Soviet victory, and the rout was begining by '43.

With a competent German commander (and boy, do we have them around here!) the end of '41 should show a relatively intact Red Army, but no longer a growing concern due to the loss of Moscow and Leningrad. Instead, like Jason's Hydra, it just keeps growing new heads.

The Soviet combat efficiency should be sharply lowered until the middle of '42 (at the earliest.)

[Uxbridge]

Could anyone tell how much the industrial modifier goes up in peace/war and how often this is happening?

Below you can see a rough idea of how I like to change the efficiency value. To begin with I'm going to raise it from 15%/level to 50%/level, thus making it really noticable. Then I will see to it that the Germans start with Level 2 (to give the Poles a fighting chance and reflect the fact that the Germans had recently been undergoing a big re-organization), raising to Level 3 shortly before Gelb (giving incentive to wait until spring), and then again to Level 4 in September-October. There the Germans will rest up to 1944, where they, as only country in the game, reach Level 5. The rest of the countries will try to catch up, with France (not likely), UK and USA reaching Level 4 in 1944. The Russians will never climb above Level 3; neither will Italy or any minor nation.

What concerns me a lot is the possible side-effects of the upkeep values, but there's so many parameters. I can hear the snake in the grass, but I can't see it ...

In the example below you can see how I am thinking. The upper chart is the modifier; the lower chart the level of the nation. But as I said earlier, I have to wait for the patch. [:)]

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: gwgardner

Having played a PBEM as USSR and watched Chuck's AARs, it's apparent that the USSR production is out of whack.

I did a ROUGH calculation, using the '39 Campaign OOB and the '41 Barbarossa Scenario OOB. Assuming those OOBs are fairly accurate historically, in game terms the USSR spent 7700 PPs in the 95 weeks/turns between 9/39 and late 6/41. That's on production of new units and research.

If one divides 7700 by 95 it comes out to roughly 80 PPs a week/turn. Howsomeever, in the game, the USSR starts with production at 125 PP a turn, and by June 41 is getting 250 PPs a turn.

Unless my rough math is wrong, that means that the USSR production is roughly 2.5 times what it should be for a balanced game.

Is that rough, enough?

Does this take into account research and upgrade costs? Soviets start with lower tech in some areas, and wind up with a lead in at least one (tanks) by the time Barabrossa starts.

[gwgardner]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx



Does this take into account research and upgrade costs? Soviets start with lower tech in some areas, and wind up with a lead in at least one (tanks) by the time Barabrossa starts.

I included research costs but not upgrades.

[H. Hoth]

ORIGINAL: Michael the Pole

Uxbridge, you are REALLY an invaluable resource![8D]

I have stated before my belief that the SU was significantly weaker in the pre-1942 period then we are modelling.

My summer project was reading the three books by Richard M. Watt on the end of WWI and the imter-war period (Dare Call it Treason, The Kings Depart, and Bitter Glory) (all excellent, and highly recomended to you interested in the period. Dare Call it Treason is a really in depth look at the French Army mutinies of 1917...fascinating stuff. I am now an absolute gold mine of trivia on European politics until 1939![8D])

The Sovs were absolutely terrified of the Germans after the collapse of any possible military alliance with the Western Democracies in 1938. The problem wasn't so much physical weakness, it was combat effectiveness. This was demonstrated in Finland and (although a paper victory) at Khalkhyn Gol as well as by the Red Army rout of the summer of 1941.

We all need to remember that Barbarossa was badly, strategicly, flawed due to the input of the Austrian paper-hanger. By concentrating on destruction of the Red Army rather than the destruction of Soviet production (taking cities) Hitler was betting the Third Riech on his ability to destroy the Red Army before Soviet production came on line. What you'd see in game terms in an accurate reproduction of history for the winter of 41-42, is a severely weakend Red Army, but with Soviet production essentially intact. 42 was a marginal Soviet victory, and the rout was begining by '43.

With a competent German commander (and boy, do we have them around here!) the end of '41 should show a relatively intact Red Army, but no longer a growing concern due to the loss of Moscow and Leningrad. Instead, like Jason's Hydra, it just keeps growing new heads.

The Soviet combat efficiency should be sharply lowered until the middle of '42 (at the earliest.)

Once again you show your ignorance...one of the most fascinating facts of ww2 is how the Russians moved their industry and out produced Germany in everything as early as March 1942....you must be touched my friend.

[gwgardner]

ORIGINAL: H. Hoth



Once again you show your ignorance...one of the most fascinating facts of ww2 is how the Russians moved their industry and out produced Germany in everything as early as March 1942....you must be touched my friend.

We have a new winner for the Miss Congeniality contest.

[H. Hoth]

ORIGINAL: gwgardner

ORIGINAL: H. Hoth



Once again you show your ignorance...one of the most fascinating facts of ww2 is how the Russians moved their industry and out produced Germany in everything as early as March 1942....you must be touched my friend.

We have a new winner for the Miss Congeniality contest.

Well he did say he has read "books" around me.